May 20, 2025

Top 14 Predictions for Round 25

By

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 13.88 8.76 5.10
Toulon 4.74 5.32 -0.60
Bordeaux Begles 4.42 3.96 0.50
Stade Rochelais 2.06 4.85 -2.80
Clermont 1.52 0.41 1.10
Racing 92 1.05 2.75 -1.70
Montpellier 0.73 -0.96 1.70
Bayonne 0.46 -1.69 2.10
Castres Olympique 0.24 -0.09 0.30
Lyon 0.24 -0.18 0.40
Section Paloise -0.20 1.38 -1.60
Stade Francais -2.00 1.86 -3.90
USA Perpignan -4.05 -0.66 -3.40
Vannes -7.36 -10.00 2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 167 matches played, 126 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Vannes May 18 38 – 32 15.00 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique May 18 34 – 29 12.10 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. USA Perpignan May 18 31 – 13 10.10 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Toulon May 18 25 – 21 2.90 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Lyon May 18 31 – 30 4.00 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 May 18 35 – 37 20.00 FALSE
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Montpellier May 19 47 – 18 6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Bayonne Jun 01 Castres Olympique 5.30
2 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Jun 01 Clermont 9.10
3 Racing 92 vs. Montpellier Jun 01 Racing 92 8.00
4 Stade Rochelais vs. USA Perpignan Jun 01 Stade Rochelais 11.90
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Jun 01 Stade Toulousain 19.10
6 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 01 Toulon 6.00
7 Vannes vs. Section Paloise Jun 01 Section Paloise -1.00

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15

By

Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 12.35 11.43 0.90
Blues 10.53 14.92 -4.40
Crusaders 10.32 8.99 1.30
Hurricanes 9.21 10.97 -1.80
Brumbies 6.54 6.19 0.30
Reds 1.66 1.35 0.30
Highlanders -3.27 -2.50 -0.80
Moana Pasifika -6.10 -11.25 5.10
Waratahs -6.57 -5.17 -1.40
Western Force -6.77 -6.41 -0.40
Fijian Drua -7.39 -7.98 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 68 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders May 16 24 – 20 17.10 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Crusaders May 16 33 – 48 -12.50 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force May 17 38 – 7 0.70 TRUE
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues May 17 27 – 21 -14.70 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Reds May 17 24 – 14 8.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders May 23 Crusaders 17.10
2 Reds vs. Hurricanes May 23 Hurricanes -3.60
3 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika May 24 Chiefs 22.00
4 Western Force vs. Waratahs May 24 Western Force 3.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 11.88 5.55 6.30
Sale Sharks 7.02 4.73 2.30
Leicester Tigers 6.48 3.27 3.20
Gloucester 4.23 -9.04 13.30
Saracens 4.14 9.68 -5.50
Bristol 2.27 9.58 -7.30
Northampton Saints -0.94 7.50 -8.40
Harlequins -1.01 -2.73 1.70
Exeter Chiefs -4.36 1.23 -5.60
Newcastle Falcons -18.96 -19.02 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester May 17 12 – 26 -17.40 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol May 17 41 – 27 10.60 TRUE
3 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers May 18 43 – 15 7.90 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens May 18 28 – 24 0.80 TRUE
5 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs May 19 24 – 22 11.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Jun 01 Bristol 9.80
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 01 Sale Sharks -4.90
3 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Jun 01 Gloucester 11.70
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Jun 01 Leicester Tigers 31.90
5 Saracens vs. Bath Jun 01 Bath -1.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.12 9.29 0.80
Panthers 6.69 8.50 -1.80
Sharks 5.96 5.10 0.90
Roosters 4.29 7.44 -3.20
Bulldogs 3.98 0.07 3.90
Sea Eagles 3.61 2.97 0.60
Cowboys 2.14 4.11 -2.00
Raiders -0.05 -3.61 3.60
Warriors -0.41 -1.68 1.30
Broncos -0.78 -1.82 1.00
Dolphins -1.49 -1.96 0.50
Dragons -3.79 -4.55 0.80
Rabbitohs -3.85 -4.35 0.50
Knights -4.46 -0.05 -4.40
Eels -5.36 -3.02 -2.30
Titans -7.28 -5.50 -1.80
Wests Tigers -9.33 -10.97 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Eels May 16 6 – 28 6.20 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Roosters May 16 24 – 20 2.40 TRUE
3 Dolphins vs. Warriors May 17 12 – 16 3.20 FALSE
4 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles May 17 6 – 24 3.40 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Storm May 17 31 – 26 -1.90 FALSE
6 Broncos vs. Dragons May 18 26 – 30 7.10 FALSE
7 Raiders vs. Titans May 18 40 – 24 9.50 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs May 18 12 – 22 -1.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Dolphins May 22 Bulldogs 8.50
2 Eels vs. Sea Eagles May 23 Sea Eagles -6.00
3 Panthers vs. Knights May 24 Panthers 11.20
4 Roosters vs. Sharks May 24 Roosters 1.30
5 Warriors vs. Raiders May 25 Warriors 3.10

 

AFL Predictions for Week 12

By

Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 23.14 18.20 4.90
Collingwood 19.34 5.39 14.00
Geelong Cats 19.01 15.04 4.00
Hawthorn Hawks 16.91 21.95 -5.00
Adelaide Crows 13.17 2.69 10.50
Brisbane Lions 11.73 22.65 -10.90
Sydney Swans 6.63 12.60 -6.00
GWS Giants 5.96 9.08 -3.10
Gold Coast Suns 4.97 -6.41 11.40
Fremantle Dockers 4.61 5.99 -1.40
Carlton Blues 3.46 5.01 -1.60
St Kilda Saints -3.98 0.89 -4.90
Melbourne Demons -4.85 -0.21 -4.60
Port Adelaide Power -5.16 7.63 -12.80
Essendon Bombers -15.02 -10.15 -4.90
North Melbourne -28.28 -37.08 8.80
West Coast Eagles -30.92 -34.67 3.70
Richmond Tigers -33.12 -31.00 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 89 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 15 104 – 96 -15.40 FALSE
2 Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues May 16 78 – 62 13.60 TRUE
3 Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows May 17 78 – 68 19.40 TRUE
4 GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers May 17 61 – 95 19.40 FALSE
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats May 17 39 – 115 -4.10 TRUE
6 Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers May 17 127 – 36 30.30 TRUE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. North Melbourne May 18 74 – 78 -5.10 TRUE
8 Brisbane Lions vs. Melbourne Demons May 18 88 – 99 33.70 FALSE
9 West Coast Eagles vs. St Kilda Saints May 18 108 – 80 -22.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Geelong Cats vs. Western Bulldogs May 22 Geelong Cats 6.90
2 Essendon Bombers vs. Richmond Tigers May 23 Essendon Bombers 18.10
3 Carlton Blues vs. GWS Giants May 24 Carlton Blues 8.50
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions May 24 Hawthorn Hawks 16.20
5 North Melbourne vs. Collingwood May 24 Collingwood -47.60
6 Fremantle Dockers vs. Port Adelaide Power May 24 Fremantle Dockers 20.80
7 Adelaide Crows vs. West Coast Eagles May 25 Adelaide Crows 55.10
8 Melbourne Demons vs. Sydney Swans May 25 Sydney Swans -0.50
9 St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns May 25 St Kilda Saints 2.10

 

May 19, 2025

No. Next question?

By

To be fair, 1News does say the answer is “no”, in compliance with Betteridge’s Law of Headlines

So, with a spread of wins across MyLotto and in-store purchases this year, do online tickets or in-store ones have a higher chance of winning?

Lotto’s line on this is also straightforward: “Your chances of winning Lotto stay the same regardless of where you purchased your ticket.”

At the end of the story is this line: The Lotto draw is live on TVNZ1 at 8pm tonight.

Watching the Lotto draw should really be the answer to a lot of these questions. With scratch-and-win or computer draws you might hope there was a mistake in the programming or the distribution of cards, but with the lotto draw? Look at the balls tumbling in the transparent washing-machine thing. Do they look as if they know where you bought your ticket? Do they look as if they care?

Another way to look at this: suppose there genuinely was some way to get an edge in  your Lotto chances and beat your neighbours. If you want secret advice like that, the web page of the country’s most popular news source is not going to be the place to find it.

 

May 16, 2025

Why do you want to know?

By

Stuff has a headline: Supermarkets say groceries are actually cheaper here than in Australia and UK

The first point to make here is that the comparison is of a basket of products chosen by Foodstuffs NZ.  It’s … not impossible… that a basket chosen by an Australian or British retailer might give a different result.

The second issue is that the comparison was of prices before GST/VAT. Australia and the UK don’t impose sales tax on some of the items in the basket but NZ does. Since the difference between PakNSave and Aldi Australia was about 7%, the impact of tax on the comparison on the comparison is pretty big. Comparing the pre-tax prices makes NZ prices look lower. Is this appropriate? It depends on why you want to know.

If you wanted to know whether moving to Australia would make your groceries cheaper, then you’d want the actually existing prices that include sales tax.  If you wanted to know whether the evil NZ supermarket duopoly was exploiting helpless Kiwi families, you might want the pre-tax prices, since that’s where the hypothetical price-gouging would hypothetically be happening.

Foodstuffs are clearly focused on the evil supermarket duopoly question (taking the “Nay” side) so it does make sense for them to look at pre-tax prices.

View comments (2)
May 13, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 18

By

Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.02 12.09 2.90
Bulls 11.02 8.83 2.20
Stormers 7.31 6.75 0.60
Glasgow 5.83 9.39 -3.60
Munster 5.06 9.28 -4.20
Sharks 3.50 -2.94 6.40
Edinburgh 1.74 0.09 1.70
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Scarlets -0.29 -10.65 10.40
Lions -0.62 6.73 -7.30
Cardiff Rugby -2.61 -2.55 -0.10
Connacht -2.63 -0.76 -1.90
Benetton -2.78 1.02 -3.80
Ospreys -2.93 -2.51 -0.40
Ulster -3.05 2.52 -5.60
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -11.35 -16.17 4.80
Dragons -17.50 -15.41 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Ospreys May 10 29 – 10 9.90 TRUE
2 Munster vs. Ulster May 10 38 – 20 8.50 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Cardiff Rugby May 11 45 – 21 17.80 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Glasgow May 11 33 – 7 -7.50 FALSE
5 Leinster vs. Zebre May 11 76 – 5 26.30 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Dragons May 11 48 – 12 28.70 TRUE
7 Connacht vs. Edinburgh May 11 21 – 31 3.10 FALSE
8 Lions vs. Scarlets May 12 19 – 32 8.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Cardiff Rugby May 17 Stormers 15.40
2 Edinburgh vs. Ulster May 17 Edinburgh 10.30
3 Munster vs. Benetton May 17 Munster 13.30
4 Bulls vs. Dragons May 18 Bulls 34.00
5 Lions vs. Ospreys May 18 Lions 7.80
6 Zebre vs. Connacht May 18 Connacht -3.20
7 Sharks vs. Scarlets May 18 Sharks 9.30
8 Leinster vs. Glasgow May 18 Leinster 14.70

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 24

By

Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.64 8.76 5.90
Toulon 4.86 5.32 -0.50
Bordeaux Begles 4.74 3.96 0.80
Montpellier 1.50 -0.96 2.50
Clermont 1.18 0.41 0.80
Stade Rochelais 1.16 4.85 -3.70
Bayonne 0.84 -1.69 2.50
Racing 92 0.25 2.75 -2.50
Lyon 0.09 -0.18 0.30
Castres Olympique -0.06 -0.09 0.00
Section Paloise -0.19 1.38 -1.60
Stade Francais -1.88 1.86 -3.70
USA Perpignan -3.72 -0.66 -3.10
Vannes -7.70 -10.00 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 120 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lyon vs. Section Paloise May 11 27 – 29 7.40 FALSE
2 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne May 11 24 – 24 6.80 FALSE
3 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain May 11 16 – 50 -1.30 TRUE
4 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais May 11 20 – 18 5.30 TRUE
5 Vannes vs. Stade Rochelais May 11 29 – 30 -1.60 TRUE
6 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles May 12 46 – 27 1.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Vannes May 18 Bayonne 15.00
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique May 18 Bordeaux Begles 12.10
3 Clermont vs. USA Perpignan May 18 Clermont 10.10
4 Section Paloise vs. Toulon May 18 Section Paloise 2.90
5 Stade Francais vs. Lyon May 18 Stade Francais 4.00
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 May 18 Stade Toulousain 20.00
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Montpellier May 19 Stade Rochelais 6.30

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 14

By

Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 12.35 11.43 0.90
Blues 11.32 14.92 -3.60
Crusaders 10.15 8.99 1.20
Hurricanes 9.76 10.97 -1.20
Brumbies 6.41 6.19 0.20
Reds 1.79 1.35 0.40
Highlanders -3.82 -2.50 -1.30
Western Force -5.70 -6.41 0.70
Waratahs -6.40 -5.17 -1.20
Moana Pasifika -6.89 -11.25 4.40
Fijian Drua -8.46 -7.98 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fijian Drua vs. Blues May 09 5 – 34 -14.60 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Reds May 09 21 – 28 -4.30 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Chiefs May 10 19 – 35 2.80 FALSE
4 Western Force vs. Brumbies May 10 14 – 33 -7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders May 16 Hurricanes 17.10
2 Waratahs vs. Crusaders May 16 Crusaders -12.50
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force May 17 Fijian Drua 0.70
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues May 17 Blues -14.70
5 Brumbies vs. Reds May 17 Brumbies 8.10

 

« Later posts
Earlier posts »