December 3, 2024

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bristol 10.40 9.58 0.80
Bath 7.92 5.55 2.40
Saracens 5.58 9.68 -4.10
Leicester Tigers 4.25 3.27 1.00
Northampton Saints 3.20 7.50 -4.30
Sale Sharks 0.16 4.73 -4.60
Harlequins -0.45 -2.73 2.30
Gloucester -1.77 -9.04 7.30
Exeter Chiefs -2.02 1.23 -3.20
Newcastle Falcons -16.51 -19.02 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Bristol Nov 30 24 – 48 0.60 FALSE
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Nov 30 17 – 12 -20.70 FALSE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Dec 01 17 – 25 16.30 FALSE
4 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 01 19 – 15 19.60 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 02 39 – 25 -0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Dec 21 Gloucester 5.20
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Dec 22 Leicester Tigers 0.30
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Dec 22 Bath -17.90
4 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 22 Sale Sharks 8.70
5 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Dec 23 Saracens 8.90

 

November 25, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.05 8.76 2.30
Bordeaux Begles 5.76 3.96 1.80
Stade Rochelais 4.93 4.85 0.10
Toulon 4.58 5.32 -0.70
Racing 92 2.00 2.75 -0.80
Castres Olympique 1.25 -0.09 1.30
Bayonne 0.30 -1.69 2.00
Montpellier 0.28 -0.96 1.20
Clermont 0.18 0.41 -0.20
Stade Francais -0.33 1.86 -2.20
Section Paloise -0.71 1.38 -2.10
Lyon -1.10 -0.18 -0.90
USA Perpignan -2.95 -0.66 -2.30
Vannes -9.50 -10.00 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 24 28 – 24 2.30 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. Clermont Nov 24 22 – 30 6.70 FALSE
3 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Nov 24 30 – 3 5.80 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Nov 24 40 – 24 3.10 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Nov 25 41 – 9 19.30 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Bayonne Nov 24 39 – 19 9.90 TRUE
7 Vannes vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 24 29 – 37 -8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier Dec 01 Bordeaux Begles 13.00
2 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique Dec 01 Clermont 5.00
3 Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 01 Stade Toulousain -1.30
4 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Dec 01 Section Paloise 7.40
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Vannes Dec 01 Stade Rochelais 20.30
6 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Dec 01 USA Perpignan 0.20
7 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Dec 02 Bayonne 7.50

 

November 4, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 10.58 8.76 1.80
Bordeaux Begles 5.82 3.96 1.90
Stade Rochelais 5.02 4.85 0.20
Toulon 4.10 5.32 -1.20
Racing 92 2.52 2.75 -0.20
Castres Olympique 1.15 -0.09 1.20
Bayonne 0.73 -1.69 2.40
Section Paloise 0.05 1.38 -1.30
Montpellier -0.48 -0.96 0.50
Clermont -0.49 0.41 -0.90
Lyon -0.51 -0.18 -0.30
Stade Francais -0.86 1.86 -2.70
USA Perpignan -2.43 -0.66 -1.80
Vannes -9.48 -10.00 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Nov 03 30 – 26 7.90 TRUE
2 Bayonne vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 04 12 – 8 -3.80 FALSE
3 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 04 32 – 27 -1.20 FALSE
4 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Nov 04 23 – 33 5.50 FALSE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais Nov 04 35 – 18 10.80 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Lyon Nov 04 21 – 10 11.10 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Vannes Nov 04 32 – 13 12.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 24 Castres Olympique 2.30
2 Lyon vs. Clermont Nov 24 Lyon 6.70
3 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Nov 24 Montpellier 5.80
4 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Nov 24 Stade Francais 3.10
5 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Nov 25 Stade Toulousain 19.40
6 Toulon vs. Bayonne Nov 24 Toulon 9.90
7 Vannes vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 24 Bordeaux Begles -8.80

 

October 29, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.01 12.09 2.90
Glasgow 10.98 9.39 1.60
Bulls 8.21 8.83 -0.60
Lions 6.08 6.73 -0.60
Stormers 4.63 6.75 -2.10
Munster 4.55 9.28 -4.70
Edinburgh 1.88 0.09 1.80
Ulster 1.88 2.52 -0.60
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Benetton -0.79 1.02 -1.80
Connacht -0.92 -0.76 -0.20
Sharks -2.03 -2.94 0.90
Ospreys -3.68 -2.51 -1.20
Cardiff Rugby -5.15 -2.55 -2.60
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Scarlets -6.78 -10.65 3.90
Dragons -14.01 -15.41 1.40
Zebre -14.12 -16.17 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Bulls Oct 26 15 – 17 -3.90 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Zebre Oct 26 30 – 8 11.20 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Glasgow Oct 27 17 – 28 1.00 FALSE
4 Ospreys vs. Edinburgh Oct 27 22 – 13 -1.70 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Munster Oct 27 41 – 24 -4.00 FALSE
6 Leinster vs. Lions Oct 27 24 – 6 13.40 TRUE
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ulster Oct 27 21 – 19 -2.50 FALSE
8 Connacht vs. Dragons Oct 27 31 – 7 17.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Scarlets Nov 30 Glasgow 23.30
2 Ulster vs. Leinster Nov 30 Leinster -10.60
3 Sharks vs. Stormers Dec 01 Stormers -4.20
4 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Dec 01 Cardiff Rugby 11.40
5 Connacht vs. Bulls Dec 01 Bulls -3.60
6 Edinburgh vs. Benetton Dec 01 Edinburgh 8.20
7 Munster vs. Lions Dec 01 Munster 4.00
8 Zebre vs. Ospreys Dec 01 Ospreys -4.90

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 10.94 8.76 2.20
Bordeaux Begles 6.14 3.96 2.20
Stade Rochelais 4.69 4.85 -0.20
Toulon 4.10 5.32 -1.20
Racing 92 1.91 2.75 -0.80
Castres Olympique 1.39 -0.09 1.50
Section Paloise 0.65 1.38 -0.70
Bayonne 0.38 -1.69 2.10
Stade Francais -0.49 1.86 -2.40
Lyon -0.54 -0.18 -0.40
Montpellier -0.70 -0.96 0.30
Clermont -0.83 0.41 -1.20
USA Perpignan -2.79 -0.66 -2.10
Vannes -9.12 -10.00 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise Oct 27 19 – 6 11.90 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. Bayonne Oct 27 38 – 49 6.90 FALSE
3 Montpellier vs. Stade Rochelais Oct 27 16 – 0 0.30 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Oct 27 30 – 23 11.70 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Clermont Oct 27 36 – 6 6.00 TRUE
6 Vannes vs. Castres Olympique Oct 27 34 – 28 -3.90 FALSE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon Oct 28 57 – 5 10.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 02 Stade Toulousain -3.80
2 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Nov 02 Castres Olympique 7.90
3 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 02 Bordeaux Begles -1.20
4 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Nov 02 Section Paloise 5.50
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais Nov 02 Stade Rochelais 10.80
6 Toulon vs. Lyon Nov 02 Toulon 11.10
7 USA Perpignan vs. Vannes Nov 02 USA Perpignan 12.60

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 9.48 5.55 3.90
Saracens 8.15 9.68 -1.50
Bristol 7.94 9.58 -1.60
Leicester Tigers 5.70 3.27 2.40
Northampton Saints 5.63 7.50 -1.90
Harlequins 2.01 -2.73 4.70
Sale Sharks -1.28 4.73 -6.00
Exeter Chiefs -3.58 1.23 -4.80
Gloucester -4.20 -9.04 4.80
Newcastle Falcons -19.09 -19.02 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Oct 26 31 – 23 9.00 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 27 36 – 7 19.50 TRUE
3 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Oct 27 40 – 13 14.80 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 27 29 – 32 11.90 FALSE
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Oct 28 19 – 36 5.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Bristol Nov 30 Harlequins 0.60
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Nov 30 Saracens -20.70
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Dec 01 Northampton Saints 16.30
4 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 01 Bath 19.60
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 02 Leicester Tigers -0.50

 

October 22, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.50 12.09 2.40
Glasgow 10.07 9.39 0.70
Bulls 7.25 8.83 -1.60
Lions 6.58 6.73 -0.10
Munster 6.01 9.28 -3.30
Stormers 5.53 6.75 -1.20
Edinburgh 2.71 0.09 2.60
Ulster 2.38 2.52 -0.10
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Benetton -1.00 1.02 -2.00
Connacht -1.68 -0.76 -0.90
Sharks -3.49 -2.94 -0.50
Ospreys -4.51 -2.51 -2.00
Cardiff Rugby -5.65 -2.55 -3.10
Scarlets -6.44 -10.65 4.20
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Dragons -13.25 -15.41 2.20
Zebre -13.29 -16.17 2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Scarlets vs. Bulls Oct 19 23 – 2 -12.50 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Ospreys Oct 19 36 – 12 10.40 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Lions Oct 19 9 – 10 -16.60 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Glasgow Oct 19 28 – 24 -10.20 FALSE
5 Stormers vs. Munster Oct 20 34 – 19 3.20 TRUE
6 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 20 27 – 8 12.40 TRUE
7 Connacht vs. Leinster Oct 20 12 – 33 -11.60 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Benetton Oct 20 21 – 31 -5.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Benetton vs. Bulls Oct 26 Bulls -2.80
2 Scarlets vs. Zebre Oct 26 Scarlets 12.40
3 Stormers vs. Glasgow Oct 27 Stormers 1.00
4 Ospreys vs. Edinburgh Oct 27 Edinburgh -1.70
5 Sharks vs. Munster Oct 27 Munster -4.00
6 Leinster vs. Lions Oct 27 Leinster 13.40
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ulster Oct 27 Ulster -2.50
8 Connacht vs. Dragons Oct 27 Connacht 17.10

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 9.60 8.76 0.80
Bordeaux Begles 6.12 3.96 2.20
Toulon 5.40 5.32 0.10
Stade Rochelais 5.27 4.85 0.40
Racing 92 2.19 2.75 -0.60
Castres Olympique 1.77 -0.09 1.90
Section Paloise 0.63 1.38 -0.80
Clermont 0.11 0.41 -0.30
Lyon 0.10 -0.18 0.30
Bayonne -0.31 -1.69 1.40
Montpellier -1.20 -0.96 -0.20
Stade Francais -1.34 1.86 -3.20
USA Perpignan -3.01 -0.66 -2.40
Vannes -9.59 -10.00 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Racing 92 Oct 20 32 – 15 2.90 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Oct 20 35 – 13 8.50 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Vannes Oct 20 55 – 33 15.40 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 20 14 – 22 -1.70 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 21 32 – 22 5.10 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Montpellier Oct 20 30 – 17 13.10 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Oct 20 29 – 26 3.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise Oct 27 Bordeaux Begles 11.90
2 Lyon vs. Bayonne Oct 27 Lyon 6.90
3 Montpellier vs. Stade Rochelais Oct 27 Montpellier 0.30
4 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Oct 27 Racing 92 11.70
5 Stade Francais vs. Clermont Oct 27 Stade Francais 6.00
6 Vannes vs. Castres Olympique Oct 27 Castres Olympique -3.90
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon Oct 28 Stade Toulousain 10.30

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.64 9.68 -0.00
Bath 8.26 5.55 2.70
Bristol 8.04 9.58 -1.50
Northampton Saints 5.53 7.50 -2.00
Leicester Tigers 4.20 3.27 0.90
Sale Sharks -0.07 4.73 -4.80
Harlequins -0.23 -2.73 2.50
Exeter Chiefs -1.34 1.23 -2.60
Gloucester -5.15 -9.04 3.90
Newcastle Falcons -18.14 -19.02 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 25 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 19 24 – 18 -14.40 FALSE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Oct 19 47 – 17 7.60 TRUE
3 Bristol vs. Saracens Oct 20 35 – 37 6.60 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Bath Oct 20 24 – 26 -2.00 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Oct 21 29 – 26 19.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Oct 26 Bristol 9.00
2 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 27 Gloucester 19.50
3 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Oct 27 Bath 14.80
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 27 Saracens 11.90
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Oct 28 Exeter Chiefs 5.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 7.80 10.63 -2.80
Bay of Plenty 7.23 3.52 3.70
Waikato 6.23 5.30 0.90
Taranaki 5.84 5.21 0.60
Canterbury 4.86 6.01 -1.20
Tasman 3.81 2.17 1.60
North Harbour 1.80 3.06 -1.30
Hawke’s Bay 1.51 6.09 -4.60
Auckland 0.39 3.00 -2.60
Counties Manukau -0.70 -5.22 4.50
Otago -1.51 -3.26 1.70
Northland -7.36 -4.29 -3.10
Southland -7.76 -10.05 2.30
Manawatu -18.66 -18.73 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Oct 19 32 – 20 3.30 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 19 29 – 24 4.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 26 Wellington 3.60

 

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