Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12
Team Ratings for Week 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blues | 14.89 | 12.20 | 2.70 |
| Chiefs | 14.59 | 13.21 | 1.40 |
| Hurricanes | 13.25 | 9.73 | 3.50 |
| Crusaders | 13.10 | 18.86 | -5.80 |
| Brumbies | 6.32 | 6.52 | -0.20 |
| Reds | 3.09 | 0.07 | 3.00 |
| Highlanders | -1.23 | 1.17 | -2.40 |
| Waratahs | -2.84 | -1.90 | -0.90 |
| Rebels | -5.09 | -4.59 | -0.50 |
| Western Force | -7.36 | -6.15 | -1.20 |
| Fijian Drua | -7.46 | -9.21 | 1.80 |
| Moana Pasifika | -12.15 | -10.80 | -1.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 60 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Waratahs | May 03 | 41 – 12 | 20.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Blues | May 03 | 11 – 38 | -13.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders | May 04 | 17 – 28 | -7.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Crusaders vs. Reds | May 04 | 28 – 33 | 16.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Chiefs vs. Western Force | May 04 | 56 – 7 | 25.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua | May 04 | 28 – 20 | 17.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 12
Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs | May 10 | Chiefs | -23.70 |
| 2 | Reds vs. Rebels | May 10 | Reds | 11.20 |
| 3 | Blues vs. Hurricanes | May 11 | Blues | 4.60 |
| 4 | Highlanders vs. Crusaders | May 11 | Crusaders | -11.30 |
| 5 | Waratahs vs. Brumbies | May 11 | Brumbies | -6.20 |
| 6 | Western Force vs. Fijian Drua | May 11 | Western Force | 3.10 |
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