NRL Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 12.72 | 14.73 | -2.00 |
| Broncos | 8.12 | 9.07 | -0.90 |
| Storm | 5.09 | 6.15 | -1.10 |
| Roosters | 4.68 | 3.08 | 1.60 |
| Sharks | 2.10 | 2.94 | -0.80 |
| Cowboys | 2.04 | 2.47 | -0.40 |
| Sea Eagles | 1.88 | -0.48 | 2.40 |
| Warriors | 1.65 | -0.07 | 1.70 |
| Knights | 1.25 | 1.84 | -0.60 |
| Eels | -1.50 | 0.14 | -1.60 |
| Raiders | -1.65 | -4.31 | 2.70 |
| Dolphins | -4.87 | -7.09 | 2.20 |
| Rabbitohs | -5.07 | 0.87 | -5.90 |
| Dragons | -7.34 | -6.93 | -0.40 |
| Bulldogs | -8.83 | -13.35 | 4.50 |
| Titans | -11.08 | -7.89 | -3.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -11.18 | -13.15 | 2.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 48 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knights vs. Roosters | Apr 11 | 20 – 22 | -0.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Storm vs. Bulldogs | Apr 12 | 16 – 14 | 19.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Dolphins | Apr 12 | 28 – 14 | 16.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 13 | 22 – 22 | 7.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Eels vs. Cowboys | Apr 13 | 27 – 20 | -1.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Sharks | Apr 13 | 22 – 34 | -3.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Dragons | Apr 14 | 12 – 24 | 0.70 | FALSE |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Titans | Apr 14 | 21 – 20 | 14.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Storm | Apr 18 | Roosters | 2.60 |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Warriors | Apr 19 | Warriors | -2.00 |
| 3 | Eels vs. Dolphins | Apr 19 | Eels | 6.40 |
| 4 | Panthers vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 20 | Panthers | 26.90 |
| 5 | Titans vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 20 | Sea Eagles | -10.00 |
| 6 | Broncos vs. Raiders | Apr 20 | Broncos | 12.80 |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Knights | Apr 21 | Knights | -7.10 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Cowboys | Apr 21 | Sharks | 3.10 |
Recent comments