February 21, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.95 17.95 -0.00
Blues 12.34 12.34 -0.00
Hurricanes 9.59 9.59 -0.00
Chiefs 8.81 8.81 0.00
Brumbies 6.64 6.64 -0.00
Highlanders 5.04 5.04 -0.00
Reds 1.89 1.89 0.00
Waratahs -2.50 -2.50 0.00
Western Force -5.54 -5.54 -0.00
Rebels -6.19 -6.19 0.00
Moana Pasifika -8.91 -8.91 -0.00
Fijian Drua -10.50 -10.50 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Feb 24 Crusaders 12.60
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Feb 24 Brumbies -5.60
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Feb 25 Moana Pasifika 7.10
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 25 Blues -3.80
5 Reds vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 Hurricanes -2.20
6 Western Force vs. Rebels Feb 25 Western Force 4.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 4.81 4.14 0.70
London Irish 2.44 -1.65 4.10
Leicester Tigers 2.27 7.93 -5.70
Northampton Saints 2.17 3.99 -1.80
Exeter Chiefs 2.10 3.67 -1.60
Saracens 1.95 -5.00 7.00
Gloucester 1.66 5.92 -4.30
Harlequins 0.85 3.92 -3.10
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -2.52 -2.43 -0.10
Bath -5.67 -9.15 3.50
Newcastle Falcons -7.11 -8.76 1.60
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 82 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 18 30 – 12 7.90 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Feb 18 28 – 26 5.90 TRUE
3 Bath vs. London Irish Feb 19 10 – 25 -2.20 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Feb 19 38 – 34 1.50 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Feb 20 24 – 18 4.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Bristol Feb 25 Bath 1.30
2 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 26 Saracens 13.60
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Feb 26 Northampton Saints 5.00
4 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 26 London Irish 4.70
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Feb 27 Exeter Chiefs 1.80

 

February 10, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 14

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Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.83 16.79 0.00
Munster 9.56 9.78 -0.20
Ulster 9.49 9.27 0.20
Stormers 7.77 7.14 0.60
Bulls 6.75 7.84 -1.10
Sharks 4.91 6.95 -2.00
Glasgow 2.74 -0.00 2.70
Connacht 1.87 -1.60 3.50
Edinburgh 1.66 3.58 -1.90
Ospreys -1.51 -0.83 -0.70
Benetton -3.56 -3.68 0.10
Lions -3.59 -1.74 -1.80
Scarlets -3.69 -1.23 -2.50
Cardiff Rugby -5.43 -7.42 2.00
Dragons -10.80 -11.81 1.00
Zebre -16.96 -16.99 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 102 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Stormers Feb 04 19 – 46 3.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Ulster Feb 18 Ulster -2.30
2 Munster vs. Ospreys Feb 18 Munster 15.60
3 Lions vs. Sharks Feb 19 Sharks -4.50
4 Bulls vs. Stormers Feb 19 Bulls 3.00
5 Zebre vs. Connacht Feb 19 Connacht -14.30
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Benetton Feb 19 Cardiff Rugby 2.60
7 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Feb 19 Edinburgh -0.80
8 Leinster vs. Dragons Feb 19 Leinster 32.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.54 6.34 1.20
La Rochelle 6.59 6.88 -0.30
Bordeaux Begles 4.46 5.27 -0.80
Stade Francais 4.37 -1.05 5.40
Racing 92 4.19 4.86 -0.70
Toulon 3.90 4.09 -0.20
Montpellier 3.57 4.18 -0.60
Lyon 2.47 3.10 -0.60
Clermont 1.55 4.05 -2.50
Castres Olympique 0.84 2.87 -2.00
Aviron Bayonnais -0.32 -4.26 3.90
Section Paloise -1.28 -2.12 0.80
USA Perpignan -4.54 -2.75 -1.80
Brive -6.07 -4.20 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 05 21 – 16 15.10 TRUE
2 Brive vs. USA Perpignan Feb 05 22 – 24 5.70 FALSE
3 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique Feb 05 41 – 26 6.30 TRUE
4 La Rochelle vs. Lyon Feb 05 16 – 20 11.70 FALSE
5 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Feb 05 38 – 19 -0.20 FALSE
6 Montpellier vs. Toulon Feb 05 18 – 20 7.10 FALSE
7 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 06 12 – 6 6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Francais Feb 19 Aviron Bayonnais 1.80
2 Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle Feb 19 Castres Olympique 0.70
3 Lyon vs. Montpellier Feb 19 Lyon 5.40
4 Racing 92 vs. Brive Feb 19 Racing 92 16.80
5 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Feb 19 USA Perpignan 3.20
6 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 19 Toulon 2.90
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Feb 20 Bordeaux Begles 9.40

 

January 31, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

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Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.83 16.79 0.00
Munster 9.56 9.78 -0.20
Ulster 9.49 9.27 0.20
Bulls 6.75 7.84 -1.10
Stormers 6.68 7.14 -0.50
Sharks 6.00 6.95 -1.00
Glasgow 2.74 -0.00 2.70
Connacht 1.87 -1.60 3.50
Edinburgh 1.66 3.58 -1.90
Ospreys -1.51 -0.83 -0.70
Benetton -3.56 -3.68 0.10
Lions -3.59 -1.74 -1.80
Scarlets -3.69 -1.23 -2.50
Cardiff Rugby -5.43 -7.42 2.00
Dragons -10.80 -11.81 1.00
Zebre -16.96 -16.99 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Scarlets vs. Bulls Jan 28 37 – 28 -7.40 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Stormers Jan 28 35 – 5 5.40 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Munster Jan 29 30 – 40 -8.30 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Glasgow Jan 29 28 – 42 -7.80 TRUE
5 Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 29 38 – 14 27.40 TRUE
6 Edinburgh vs. Sharks Jan 29 19 – 22 0.90 FALSE
7 Connacht vs. Lions Jan 29 43 – 24 8.90 TRUE
8 Zebre vs. Ospreys Jan 30 24 – 28 -11.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Stormers Feb 04 Sharks 3.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.90 6.34 1.60
La Rochelle 7.11 6.88 0.20
Racing 92 4.80 4.86 -0.10
Bordeaux Begles 4.43 5.27 -0.80
Stade Francais 4.40 -1.05 5.50
Montpellier 4.03 4.18 -0.20
Toulon 3.44 4.09 -0.70
Lyon 1.95 3.10 -1.20
Castres Olympique 1.27 2.87 -1.60
Clermont 1.11 4.05 -2.90
Aviron Bayonnais -0.68 -4.26 3.60
Section Paloise -1.90 -2.12 0.20
USA Perpignan -4.92 -2.75 -2.20
Brive -5.68 -4.20 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Brive Jan 29 37 – 9 10.40 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Jan 29 23 – 18 3.20 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Clermont Jan 29 34 – 14 6.40 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. La Rochelle Jan 29 39 – 36 4.30 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Section Paloise Jan 29 27 – 16 11.90 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais Jan 29 31 – 24 -3.60 FALSE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Jan 30 23 – 9 10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 05 Stade Toulousain 15.10
2 Brive vs. USA Perpignan Feb 05 Brive 5.70
3 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique Feb 05 Clermont 6.30
4 La Rochelle vs. Lyon Feb 05 La Rochelle 11.70
5 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Feb 05 Racing 92 -0.20
6 Montpellier vs. Toulon Feb 05 Montpellier 7.10
7 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 06 Stade Francais 6.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 5.01 4.14 0.90
Leicester Tigers 2.15 7.93 -5.80
Exeter Chiefs 2.10 3.67 -1.60
Saracens 2.06 -5.00 7.10
Gloucester 1.97 5.92 -3.90
Northampton Saints 1.97 3.99 -2.00
London Irish 1.74 -1.65 3.40
Harlequins 0.54 3.92 -3.40
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -3.09 -2.43 -0.70
Bath -4.97 -9.15 4.20
Newcastle Falcons -6.54 -8.76 2.20
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Jan 28 30 – 27 15.90 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Jan 29 18 – 19 5.50 FALSE
3 Saracens vs. Bristol Jan 29 20 – 19 10.80 TRUE
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Jan 29 24 – 17 4.20 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Harlequins Jan 30 42 – 24 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 18 Bristol 7.90
2 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Feb 18 Gloucester 5.90
3 Bath vs. London Irish Feb 19 London Irish -2.20
4 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Feb 19 Northampton Saints 1.50
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Feb 20 Leicester Tigers 4.60

 

January 10, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 13

By

Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.17 16.79 0.40
Munster 9.38 9.78 -0.40
Ulster 8.55 9.27 -0.70
Stormers 7.62 7.14 0.50
Bulls 7.46 7.84 -0.40
Sharks 5.61 6.95 -1.30
Glasgow 2.12 -0.00 2.10
Edinburgh 2.05 3.58 -1.50
Connacht 1.36 -1.60 3.00
Ospreys -1.09 -0.83 -0.30
Lions -3.08 -1.74 -1.30
Benetton -3.38 -3.68 0.30
Scarlets -4.40 -1.23 -3.20
Cardiff Rugby -5.77 -7.42 1.70
Dragons -10.17 -11.81 1.60
Zebre -17.38 -16.99 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Bulls Jan 07 14 – 29 -12.70 TRUE
2 Munster vs. Lions Jan 07 33 – 3 15.70 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Ulster Jan 08 31 – 29 -8.50 FALSE
4 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Jan 08 24 – 17 25.50 TRUE
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Jan 08 22 – 28 3.60 FALSE
6 Connacht vs. Sharks Jan 08 24 – 12 -0.90 FALSE
7 Ospreys vs. Leinster Jan 08 19 – 24 -14.70 TRUE
8 Glasgow vs. Stormers Jan 09 24 – 17 -1.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Scarlets vs. Bulls Jan 28 Bulls -7.40
2 Ulster vs. Stormers Jan 28 Ulster 5.40
3 Benetton vs. Munster Jan 29 Munster -8.30
4 Dragons vs. Glasgow Jan 29 Glasgow -7.80
5 Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 29 Leinster 27.40
6 Edinburgh vs. Sharks Jan 29 Edinburgh 0.90
7 Connacht vs. Lions Jan 29 Connacht 8.90
8 Zebre vs. Ospreys Jan 30 Ospreys -11.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.70 6.34 1.40
La Rochelle 7.04 6.88 0.20
Racing 92 4.87 4.86 0.00
Stade Francais 4.77 -1.05 5.80
Bordeaux Begles 4.53 5.27 -0.70
Montpellier 4.23 4.18 0.00
Toulon 3.49 4.09 -0.60
Clermont 1.57 4.05 -2.50
Lyon 1.49 3.10 -1.60
Castres Olympique 1.18 2.87 -1.70
Aviron Bayonnais -1.25 -4.26 3.00
Section Paloise -1.95 -2.12 0.20
Brive -5.10 -4.20 -0.90
USA Perpignan -5.29 -2.75 -2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Aviron Bayonnais Jan 08 23 – 15 12.80 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Toulon Jan 08 26 – 17 -2.90 FALSE
3 Clermont vs. USA Perpignan Jan 08 31 – 20 13.60 TRUE
4 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 08 30 – 7 4.70 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Jan 08 12 – 21 3.90 FALSE
6 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Jan 08 26 – 7 9.10 TRUE
7 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Jan 09 17 – 12 6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Brive Jan 28 Aviron Bayonnais 10.40
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Jan 28 Castres Olympique 3.20
3 Lyon vs. Clermont Jan 28 Lyon 6.40
4 Racing 92 vs. La Rochelle Jan 28 Racing 92 4.30
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Jan 28 Stade Toulousain 10.00
6 Toulon vs. Section Paloise Jan 28 Toulon 11.90
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais Jan 28 Stade Francais -3.60

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 5.71 4.14 1.60
Saracens 2.62 -5.00 7.60
Leicester Tigers 2.54 7.93 -5.40
Gloucester 2.20 5.92 -3.70
Exeter Chiefs 1.87 3.67 -1.80
Northampton Saints 1.58 3.99 -2.40
Harlequins 1.28 3.92 -2.60
London Irish 0.99 -1.65 2.60
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -3.64 -2.43 -1.20
Bath -5.68 -9.15 3.50
Newcastle Falcons -6.54 -8.76 2.20
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Saracens Jan 07 16 – 19 5.00 FALSE
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 08 45 – 26 -7.10 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Jan 08 35 – 12 2.70 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Jan 09 16 – 24 1.10 FALSE
5 London Irish vs. Bristol Jan 09 23 – 7 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Jan 28 Sale Sharks 15.90
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Jan 29 Leicester Tigers 5.50
3 Saracens vs. Bristol Jan 29 Saracens 10.80
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Jan 29 Exeter Chiefs 4.20
5 London Irish vs. Harlequins Jan 30 London Irish 4.20

 

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