September 25, 2023

RWC 2023 Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Ireland 18.17 15.46 2.70
South Africa 17.89 16.35 1.50
New Zealand 17.23 16.32 0.90
France 14.26 12.48 1.80
England 7.25 4.22 3.00
Scotland 6.86 6.81 0.10
Wales 3.01 0.75 2.30
Australia 1.43 2.63 -1.20
Argentina 1.27 1.23 0.00
Fiji 0.62 0.58 0.00
Samoa -0.41 -0.50 0.10
Georgia -3.79 -2.56 -1.20
Japan -5.77 -6.10 0.30
Italy -6.67 -8.84 2.20
Tonga -12.55 -11.38 -1.20
Portugal -13.49 -13.61 0.10
Uruguay -15.22 -15.47 0.20
Namibia -18.29 -13.18 -5.10
Chile -18.62 -15.13 -3.50
Romania -20.15 -17.02 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Italy vs. Uruguay Sep 20 38 – 17 7.30 TRUE
2 France vs. Namibia Sep 21 96 – 0 35.30 TRUE
3 Argentina vs. Samoa Sep 22 19 – 10 0.30 TRUE
4 Georgia vs. Portugal Sep 23 18 – 18 10.80 FALSE
5 England vs. Chile Sep 23 71 – 0 22.30 TRUE
6 South Africa vs. Ireland Sep 23 8 – 13 0.60 FALSE
7 Scotland vs. Tonga Sep 24 45 – 17 18.40 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Australia Sep 24 40 – 6 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Uruguay vs. Namibia Sep 27 Uruguay 3.10
2 Japan vs. Samoa Sep 28 Samoa -5.40
3 New Zealand vs. Italy Sep 29 New Zealand 23.90
4 Argentina vs. Chile Sep 30 Argentina 19.90
5 Fiji vs. Georgia Sep 30 Fiji 4.40
6 Scotland vs. Romania Sep 30 Scotland 27.00
7 Australia vs. Portugal Oct 01 Australia 14.90
8 South Africa vs. Tonga Oct 01 South Africa 30.40

 

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NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 15.30 12.99 2.30
Broncos 8.50 -5.92 14.40
Storm 6.15 11.21 -5.10
Roosters 3.08 7.64 -4.60
Sharks 2.94 4.50 -1.60
Cowboys 2.47 6.23 -3.80
Knights 1.84 -9.53 11.40
Rabbitohs 0.87 9.35 -8.50
Eels 0.14 6.78 -6.60
Warriors -0.07 -11.12 11.10
Sea Eagles -0.48 -5.26 4.80
Raiders -4.31 1.98 -6.30
Dragons -6.93 -2.73 -4.20
Dolphins -7.09 -10.00 2.90
Titans -7.89 -6.32 -1.60
Wests Tigers -13.15 -13.52 0.40
Bulldogs -13.35 -8.29 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 212 matches played, 135 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Warriors Sep 22 42 – 12 12.40 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Storm Sep 23 38 – 4 9.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Broncos Oct 01 Panthers 9.80

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 13.22 8.72 4.50
Canterbury 7.14 9.44 -2.30
North Harbour 5.27 7.75 -2.50
Tasman 5.01 2.20 2.80
Waikato 4.39 3.71 0.70
Auckland 3.59 2.15 1.40
Bay of Plenty 3.44 4.55 -1.10
Hawke’s Bay 3.38 5.12 -1.70
Taranaki 1.23 -2.98 4.20
Otago -4.23 0.62 -4.90
Counties Manukau -4.25 -7.44 3.20
Northland -5.11 -3.92 -1.20
Southland -12.43 -12.27 -0.20
Manawatu -17.18 -14.18 -3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 22 26 – 32 -5.40 TRUE
2 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Sep 23 46 – 19 14.00 TRUE
3 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 23 7 – 33 -10.60 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Tasman Sep 23 30 – 28 6.00 TRUE
5 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sep 23 18 – 16 0.30 TRUE
6 Wellington vs. North Harbour Sep 24 26 – 6 9.30 TRUE
7 Waikato vs. Otago Sep 24 47 – 7 7.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 27 Bay of Plenty -12.90

 

September 18, 2023

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.87 12.99 0.90
Storm 7.58 11.21 -3.60
Broncos 7.40 -5.92 13.30
Roosters 3.08 7.64 -4.60
Sharks 2.94 4.50 -1.60
Cowboys 2.47 6.23 -3.80
Knights 1.84 -9.53 11.40
Warriors 1.02 -11.12 12.10
Rabbitohs 0.87 9.35 -8.50
Eels 0.14 6.78 -6.60
Sea Eagles -0.48 -5.26 4.80
Raiders -4.31 1.98 -6.30
Dragons -6.93 -2.73 -4.20
Dolphins -7.09 -10.00 2.90
Titans -7.89 -6.32 -1.60
Wests Tigers -13.15 -13.52 0.40
Bulldogs -13.35 -8.29 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 210 matches played, 133 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Roosters Sep 15 18 – 13 8.20 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Knights Sep 16 40 – 10 2.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Warriors Sep 22 Broncos 12.40
2 Panthers vs. Storm Sep 23 Panthers 9.30

 

RWC 2023 Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
South Africa 18.34 16.35 2.00
Ireland 17.72 15.46 2.30
New Zealand 17.23 16.32 0.90
France 12.13 12.48 -0.40
Scotland 6.37 6.81 -0.40
England 5.46 4.22 1.20
Australia 2.81 2.63 0.20
Wales 1.63 0.75 0.90
Fiji 0.62 0.58 0.00
Argentina 0.57 1.23 -0.70
Samoa 0.29 -0.50 0.80
Georgia -3.25 -2.56 -0.70
Japan -5.77 -6.10 0.30
Italy -7.32 -8.84 1.50
Tonga -12.06 -11.38 -0.70
Portugal -14.03 -13.61 -0.40
Uruguay -14.57 -15.47 0.90
Namibia -16.15 -13.18 -3.00
Chile -16.83 -15.13 -1.70
Romania -20.15 -17.02 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 93.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 France vs. Uruguay Sep 14 27 – 12 35.50 TRUE
2 New Zealand vs. Namibia Sep 15 71 – 3 30.50 TRUE
3 Samoa vs. Chile Sep 16 43 – 10 15.50 TRUE
4 Wales vs. Portugal Sep 16 28 – 8 14.80 TRUE
5 Ireland vs. Tonga Sep 16 59 – 16 28.40 TRUE
6 South Africa vs. Romania Sep 17 76 – 0 35.40 TRUE
7 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 17 15 – 22 3.20 FALSE
8 England vs. Japan Sep 17 34 – 12 10.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Italy vs. Uruguay Sep 20 Italy 7.30
2 France vs. Namibia Sep 21 France 35.30
3 Argentina vs. Samoa Sep 22 Argentina 0.30
4 Georgia vs. Portugal Sep 23 Georgia 10.80
5 England vs. Chile Sep 23 England 22.30
6 South Africa vs. Ireland Sep 23 South Africa 0.60
7 Scotland vs. Tonga Sep 24 Scotland 18.40
8 Wales vs. Australia Sep 24 Australia -1.20

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 12.40 8.72 3.70
Canterbury 7.58 9.44 -1.90
North Harbour 6.09 7.75 -1.70
Tasman 4.57 2.20 2.40
Auckland 3.78 2.15 1.60
Bay of Plenty 3.38 4.55 -1.20
Waikato 2.26 3.71 -1.50
Hawke’s Bay 2.25 5.12 -2.90
Taranaki 1.04 -2.98 4.00
Otago -2.10 0.62 -2.70
Northland -5.05 -3.92 -1.10
Counties Manukau -5.22 -7.44 2.20
Southland -11.30 -12.27 1.00
Manawatu -16.21 -14.18 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Sep 15 57 – 7 17.20 TRUE
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Sep 16 12 – 27 7.60 FALSE
3 North Harbour vs. Northland Sep 16 50 – 31 12.80 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Taranaki Sep 16 17 – 36 2.90 FALSE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Sep 17 14 – 26 -4.30 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 17 29 – 14 23.80 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 17 27 – 17 13.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 22 Bay of Plenty -5.40
2 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Sep 23 Counties Manukau 14.00
3 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 23 Hawke’s Bay -10.60
4 Canterbury vs. Tasman Sep 23 Canterbury 6.00
5 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sep 23 Taranaki 0.30
6 Wellington vs. North Harbour Sep 24 Wellington 9.30
7 Waikato vs. Otago Sep 24 Waikato 7.40

 

September 14, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 11.55 8.72 2.80
Canterbury 8.55 9.44 -0.90
North Harbour 5.41 7.75 -2.30
Auckland 5.34 2.15 3.20
Tasman 4.97 2.20 2.80
Bay of Plenty 4.23 4.55 -0.30
Waikato 0.70 3.71 -3.00
Hawke’s Bay 0.11 5.12 -5.00
Taranaki -0.47 -2.98 2.50
Otago -0.58 0.62 -1.20
Northland -4.36 -3.92 -0.40
Counties Manukau -5.61 -7.44 1.80
Southland -12.27 -12.27 0.00
Manawatu -14.07 -14.18 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Sep 13 31 – 29 -13.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Sep 15 Hawke’s Bay 17.20
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Sep 16 Auckland 7.60
3 North Harbour vs. Northland Sep 16 North Harbour 12.80
4 Otago vs. Taranaki Sep 16 Otago 2.90
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Sep 17 Wellington -4.30
6 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 17 Canterbury 23.80
7 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 17 Tasman 13.60

 

September 12, 2023

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 6.82 6.82 0.00
Sale Sharks 6.46 6.46 -0.00
Leicester Tigers 6.13 6.13 0.00
Northampton Saints 2.66 2.66 0.00
Harlequins 1.93 1.93 0.00
Bristol 1.00 1.00 0.00
Exeter Chiefs -0.89 -0.89 -0.00
Bath -1.26 -1.26 0.00
Gloucester -1.45 -1.45 0.00
Newcastle Falcons -10.63 -10.63 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 14 Bristol 0.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Oct 14 Saracens -1.70
3 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 15 Bath 15.40
4 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Oct 15 Gloucester 2.60
5 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Oct 15 Sale Sharks 9.80

 

September 11, 2023

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.87 12.99 0.90
Storm 7.94 11.21 -3.30
Broncos 7.40 -5.92 13.30
Knights 3.42 -9.53 12.90
Sharks 2.94 4.50 -1.60
Roosters 2.73 7.64 -4.90
Cowboys 2.47 6.23 -3.80
Rabbitohs 0.87 9.35 -8.50
Eels 0.14 6.78 -6.60
Sea Eagles -0.48 -5.26 4.80
Warriors -0.56 -11.12 10.60
Raiders -4.31 1.98 -6.30
Dragons -6.93 -2.73 -4.20
Dolphins -7.09 -10.00 2.90
Titans -7.89 -6.32 -1.60
Wests Tigers -13.15 -13.52 0.40
Bulldogs -13.35 -8.29 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 208 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 08 26 – 0 -0.60 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Sep 09 32 – 6 19.40 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Roosters Sep 09 12 – 13 4.40 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Raiders Sep 10 30 – 28 12.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Roosters Sep 15 Storm 8.20
2 Warriors vs. Knights Sep 16 Warriors 2.00

 

RWC 2023 Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Ireland 17.04 15.46 1.60
South Africa 16.79 16.35 0.40
New Zealand 15.78 16.32 -0.50
France 13.02 12.48 0.50
Scotland 6.37 6.81 -0.40
England 4.88 4.22 0.70
Australia 3.32 2.63 0.70
Wales 1.22 0.75 0.50
Argentina 0.57 1.23 -0.70
Fiji 0.11 0.58 -0.50
Samoa -0.50 -0.50 -0.00
Georgia -3.25 -2.56 -0.70
Japan -5.19 -6.10 0.90
Italy -7.32 -8.84 1.50
Tonga -11.38 -11.38 -0.00
Portugal -13.61 -13.61 0.00
Namibia -14.70 -13.18 -1.50
Uruguay -15.47 -15.47 -0.00
Chile -16.05 -15.13 -0.90
Romania -18.60 -17.02 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 France vs. New Zealand Sep 08 27 – 13 3.20 TRUE
2 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 09 52 – 8 4.30 TRUE
3 Ireland vs. Romania Sep 09 82 – 8 32.50 TRUE
4 Australia vs. Georgia Sep 09 35 – 15 5.20 TRUE
5 England vs. Argentina Sep 09 27 – 10 3.00 TRUE
6 Japan vs. Chile Sep 10 42 – 12 9.00 TRUE
7 South Africa vs. Scotland Sep 10 18 – 3 9.50 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Fiji Sep 10 32 – 26 0.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 France vs. Uruguay Sep 14 France 35.50
2 New Zealand vs. Namibia Sep 15 New Zealand 30.50
3 Samoa vs. Chile Sep 16 Samoa 15.50
4 Wales vs. Portugal Sep 16 Wales 14.80
5 Ireland vs. Tonga Sep 16 Ireland 28.40
6 South Africa vs. Romania Sep 17 South Africa 35.40
7 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 17 Australia 3.20
8 England vs. Japan Sep 17 England 10.10

 

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