March 14, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.79 17.95 -1.20
Blues 13.40 12.34 1.10
Chiefs 10.62 8.81 1.80
Hurricanes 10.10 9.59 0.50
Brumbies 7.01 6.64 0.40
Highlanders 2.47 5.04 -2.60
Reds 2.41 1.89 0.50
Waratahs -2.08 -2.50 0.40
Rebels -5.75 -6.19 0.40
Western Force -7.07 -5.54 -1.50
Moana Pasifika -9.25 -8.91 -0.30
Fijian Drua -10.01 -10.50 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 10 28 – 7 10.80 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 10 34 – 27 -0.90 FALSE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Mar 11 25 – 24 -23.10 FALSE
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 11 19 – 25 0.90 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 11 23 – 17 8.40 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 11 21 – 18 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Mar 17 Hurricanes 17.70
2 Chiefs vs. Rebels Mar 18 Chiefs 21.90
3 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 18 Blues 0.10
4 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 18 Brumbies 21.80
5 Highlanders vs. Western Force Mar 19 Highlanders 15.00
6 Reds vs. Fijian Drua Mar 19 Reds 15.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 4.36 7.93 -3.60
Sale Sharks 4.20 4.14 0.10
London Irish 3.43 -1.65 5.10
Bristol 1.26 -2.43 3.70
Saracens 1.25 -5.00 6.20
Harlequins 1.23 3.92 -2.70
Exeter Chiefs 1.00 3.67 -2.70
Northampton Saints 0.43 3.99 -3.60
Gloucester 0.31 5.92 -5.60
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bath -6.88 -9.15 2.30
Newcastle Falcons -7.67 -8.76 1.10
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 97 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Mar 11 45 – 26 10.90 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 12 24 – 5 12.40 TRUE
3 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Mar 12 36 – 18 2.00 TRUE
4 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 13 5 – 26 2.80 FALSE
5 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 13 51 – 26 2.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 26 Exeter Chiefs -3.40
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Mar 26 Leicester Tigers 7.60
3 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Mar 26 London Irish 7.50
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Mar 26 Gloucester -3.50
5 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 26 Saracens 4.50

 

March 7, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.64 12.99 -1.40
Storm 11.49 11.21 0.30
Rabbitohs 9.89 9.35 0.50
Eels 6.50 6.78 -0.30
Roosters 6.22 7.64 -1.40
Cowboys 5.75 6.23 -0.50
Sharks 3.97 4.50 -0.50
Raiders 2.46 1.98 0.50
Dragons -2.73 -2.73 -0.00
Sea Eagles -4.10 -5.26 1.20
Broncos -4.58 -5.92 1.30
Titans -5.75 -6.32 0.60
Dolphins -8.57 -10.00 1.40
Bulldogs -9.45 -8.29 -1.20
Knights -9.92 -9.53 -0.40
Warriors -10.73 -11.12 0.40
Wests Tigers -14.09 -13.52 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Storm Mar 02 12 – 16 -1.40 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 03 20 – 12 4.40 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Broncos Mar 03 12 – 13 21.90 FALSE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 04 31 – 6 6.00 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 04 19 – 18 7.20 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Mar 04 18 – 27 -1.90 TRUE
7 Dolphins vs. Roosters Mar 05 28 – 18 -14.60 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Mar 05 10 – 22 -4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Mar 09 Panthers 4.80
2 Eels vs. Sharks Mar 10 Eels 5.50
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 10 Cowboys -7.30
4 Roosters vs. Warriors Mar 11 Roosters 22.90
5 Dolphins vs. Raiders Mar 11 Raiders -8.00
6 Storm vs. Bulldogs Mar 11 Storm 23.90
7 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Mar 12 Knights -1.20
8 Dragons vs. Titans Mar 12 Dragons 6.00

 

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 16

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Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.97 16.79 0.20
Munster 10.33 9.78 0.50
Ulster 10.06 9.27 0.80
Stormers 8.34 7.14 1.20
Sharks 5.35 6.95 -1.60
Bulls 5.27 7.84 -2.60
Glasgow 4.19 -0.00 4.20
Connacht 1.69 -1.60 3.30
Edinburgh 0.15 3.58 -3.40
Scarlets -2.10 -1.23 -0.90
Benetton -3.51 -3.68 0.20
Ospreys -3.51 -0.83 -2.70
Lions -3.85 -1.74 -2.10
Cardiff Rugby -5.36 -7.42 2.10
Dragons -9.85 -11.81 2.00
Zebre -18.13 -16.99 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Zebre Mar 04 50 – 8 25.40 TRUE
2 Munster vs. Scarlets Mar 04 49 – 42 18.00 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Sharks Mar 05 29 – 23 7.20 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Lions Mar 05 25 – 29 14.70 FALSE
5 Edinburgh vs. Leinster Mar 05 27 – 47 -11.40 TRUE
6 Ospreys vs. Benetton Mar 05 20 – 21 5.90 FALSE
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ulster Mar 05 20 – 42 -9.80 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Connacht Mar 05 20 – 22 -8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 25 Cardiff Rugby -8.30
2 Leinster vs. Stormers Mar 25 Leinster 13.10
3 Benetton vs. Lions Mar 26 Benetton 4.80
4 Ospreys vs. Dragons Mar 26 Ospreys 10.30
5 Connacht vs. Edinburgh Mar 26 Connacht 6.00
6 Munster vs. Glasgow Mar 26 Munster 10.60
7 Scarlets vs. Sharks Mar 26 Sharks -2.90
8 Ulster vs. Bulls Mar 26 Ulster 9.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.86 6.34 1.50
La Rochelle 7.01 6.88 0.10
Bordeaux Begles 5.65 5.27 0.40
Toulon 4.60 4.09 0.50
Montpellier 3.86 4.18 -0.30
Stade Francais 3.75 -1.05 4.80
Lyon 3.44 3.10 0.30
Racing 92 2.69 4.86 -2.20
Clermont 1.31 4.05 -2.70
Aviron Bayonnais 0.23 -4.26 4.50
Castres Olympique -0.33 2.87 -3.20
Section Paloise -2.32 -2.12 -0.20
USA Perpignan -4.37 -2.75 -1.60
Brive -6.11 -4.20 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 140 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 05 7 – 28 -4.20 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Mar 05 27 – 22 2.50 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Clermont Mar 05 34 – 6 7.80 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. La Rochelle Mar 05 32 – 36 -2.70 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Mar 05 37 – 9 6.00 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Aviron Bayonnais Mar 05 34 – 27 1.30 TRUE
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 06 35 – 39 1.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Section Paloise Mar 26 Aviron Bayonnais 9.00
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. La Rochelle Mar 26 Bordeaux Begles 5.10
3 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 26 Stade Toulousain -1.70
4 Clermont vs. Brive Mar 26 Clermont 13.90
5 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 26 Lyon 5.30
6 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Mar 26 Stade Francais 7.60
7 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Mar 26 Montpellier -1.70

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.68 17.95 -0.30
Blues 13.07 12.34 0.70
Hurricanes 10.43 9.59 0.80
Chiefs 10.17 8.81 1.40
Brumbies 7.18 6.64 0.50
Highlanders 2.92 5.04 -2.10
Reds 2.24 1.89 0.40
Waratahs -1.72 -2.50 0.80
Rebels -6.11 -6.19 0.10
Western Force -6.81 -5.54 -1.30
Moana Pasifika -9.52 -8.91 -0.60
Fijian Drua -10.91 -10.50 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Mar 03 52 – 15 13.00 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes Mar 03 33 – 39 -11.60 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs Mar 04 29 – 52 -19.30 TRUE
4 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Mar 04 17 – 46 -7.60 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Brumbies Mar 05 20 – 25 6.90 FALSE
6 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 05 20 – 71 -6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 10 Chiefs 10.80
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 10 Waratahs -0.90
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Mar 11 Crusaders -23.10
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 11 Hurricanes 0.90
5 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 11 Brumbies 8.40
6 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 11 Western Force 8.20

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 5.05 4.14 0.90
Leicester Tigers 3.18 7.93 -4.70
London Irish 2.59 -1.65 4.20
Harlequins 2.37 3.92 -1.60
Gloucester 1.50 5.92 -4.40
Saracens 1.25 -5.00 6.20
Exeter Chiefs 0.60 3.67 -3.10
Bristol 0.13 -2.43 2.60
Northampton Saints -0.05 3.99 -4.00
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bath -6.40 -9.15 2.70
Newcastle Falcons -7.27 -8.76 1.50
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Mar 04 62 – 8 -0.10 FALSE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Mar 05 48 – 27 13.20 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 05 40 – 5 3.20 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish Mar 06 19 – 34 -4.10 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Mar 06 35 – 24 7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Mar 11 Northampton Saints 10.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 12 Exeter Chiefs 12.40
3 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Mar 12 London Irish 2.00
4 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 13 Gloucester 2.80
5 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 13 Bristol 2.30

 

March 3, 2023

Counting is hard

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From Stuff: Japan just found 7000 islands it never knew existed

That’s not quite what happened, as the story goes on to say.  We’re not talking about Kupe discovering Aotearoa or even Abel Tasman ‘discovering’ New Zealand.  There are three main groups of ‘new’ islands:

  • Pairs or small groups of islands that were counted as a single island before and are now recognised as multiple separate islands.
  • Islands in rivers or lakes, which were known about before but not part of the previous count
  • Large sandbars, which were known about before, but used not to be included in the definition of ‘island’

There are also islands genuinely appearing and disappearing, because of volcanic activity and erosion, but that’s a tiny fraction of the discrepancy.

Counting things requires both a definition of the thing to be counted and good enough measurement to see and recognise them.  In other news, the New Zealand Census is on!

 

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March 2, 2023

Sweet as?

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There’s been a scary news story about an artificial sweetener that previously looked remarkably inoffensive, erythritol.  It’s produced by fermentation of various plant material, and it comes in ‘organic’ as well as normal versions; it’s got similar taste and feel to sugar, and you can even use it for baking.  So when someone reports that it increases the risk of heart attack by a lot, you’d hope they had investigated thoroughly.

The researchers didn’t particularly have it in for erythritol; they were looking at blood components to see if anything predicted heart attack by a useful amount, and found a dramatic correlation with the amount of erythritol in the blood — and I mean dramatic. Here’s the chart showing the percentage of people who didn’t have a heart attack over the three years after their blood measurement, divided into four equal groups based on erythritol in the blood:

It’s not quite as bad as it first looks — the y-axis only goes down to 80% — but it still suggests more than half of heart attacks are due to erythritol, making it almost as bad as smoking. And also that there’s a magic threshold between safe and dangerous doses. This is … hard to believe? Now, this was the group where they discovered the correlation, so you’d expect over-estimation.  Not being completely irresponsible, they did check in other groups of people. Here’s a separate US group

It’s not quite as dramatic, but we’re still looking at a doubling of risk in the highest group and no real difference between the other three. And we’re still looking at nearly half of heart attacks being due to this obscure artificial sweetener.

So it is credible?

One question to ask is whether there’s a mechanism for it to be dangerous — this isn’t a definitive criterion, because there’s a lot we don’t know, but it’s useful.  The researchers say that erythritol makes platelets more likely to clump together, triggering clots, which is a thing that can happen and would increase heart attack risk — that’s why aspirin, which disables platelets, has been recommended to prevent heart attacks.

Another question to ask is whether the high erythritol group got it from eating the most erythritol. If they aren’t, this isn’t going to give useful dietary advice.  The compound is made in the body to some extent, and it’s excreted via the kidneys. Could people at higher risk of heart attack be making more internally or excreting it less effectively?  The natural step here would be to feed healthy people some erythritol and see what happens to their platelets.  That study is apparently underway, though it’s small and has no control group.

You might also ask if there has been a dramatic increase in heart attacks over the time that erythritol has become more popular in foods?  There hasn’t been, though a moderate increase might have been masked by all the other factors causing decreases in risk.

I would be surprised if the risk turns out to really be this big, though it’s entirely possible that there’s some risk. At least the platelet study should be reasonably informative, and it’s a pity it wasn’t done before the publicity.

 

 

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Pie and anti-pie

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There are other issues with this graph (from the ABC’s Dan Ziffer): these are components of inflation rather than causes, why ‘beyond 3%’?  The big issue, though, is the pie, where the positive number add to 104% and then there’s the negative 4%.

You can’t have negative numbers in a pie chart; that isn’t how pies work.  If you combine 104% of a pie and 4% of an anti-pie, you’ll end up on this list

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