Stats Chat

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

• BBC’s More or Less on the actual evidence for mask use. Probably not 53% reduction in risk. But is it worthwhile? Yes, they say.
• I’m the The Conversation on the benefits of vaccines: modest against infection but pretty good against serious illness
• People are (quantatively) bad at estimating the population income distribution — and everything else
• The USA may be about to stop daylight saving time changes. The Washington Post shows where the impact will fall if they do.  It’s probably a good idea, but it’s going to be a pain for some people.
• Trip planning for Ancient Rome
• The problem with caring too much about university rankings is that it may be easier to improve the ranking than to improve the university. Columbia University allegedly submitted dodgy data to US News & World Report to get a better ranking.  Now, there are differences between universities, on lots of metrics, and it’s good for people outside the academic or social elites to be able to learn about these differences. The problem is folding them into a ranking and then treating the ranking as the important thing.  And if you’re running a ranking system as valuable as that one, you should probably be doing a bit of data checking.
• “When covid testing flipped to home RATs, there was a big drop in the children reported as having covid relative to parents compared to professional tests. Then came people sharing advice on how to swab kids, then easier reporting, and now we seem to be back where we were.” @thoughtfulnz on Twitter
  
• Phrasing of poll questions is important. Here’s one from the UK about a “no-fly zone in Ukraine” that lays out some of the risks and gets different results from polls that didn’t. (I’m also glad to see a high “Don’t Know” proportion reported.)
  

Team Ratings for Week 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Week 20

Here are the predictions for Week 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 139 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Week 6

I have just updated the prediction for the Force vs Brumbies which is to be played in Perth. The locations of the games between these two teams were swapped around because of the difficulty of travel to WA.

I have included a post hoc prediction for the rescheduled Round 2 game between the Chiefs and Moana Pasifika, which hadn’t been decided on when I posted last week. I will try and update later this week if there are cancelled games or rescheduled games because of Covid.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 25 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 3

Unfortunately I entered my updating parameter incorrectly when preparing the predictions for the NRL, which I only realised when looking over the predictions for this round. I misplaced the decimal point so the parameter was out by a factor of 10. The predictions for Round 1 were not affected but those for Round 2 are. The updated values for those predictions are below. If you check the posted predictions for Round 2 you will see that there were extreme changes in the ratings from Round 1 to Round 2, which should not happen.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Week 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Week 19

Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 138 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Postponed Games

These are predictions for two games which I missed. I am posting them for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 98 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.