Stats Chat

Team Ratings for Round 7

I got caught out with the Round 6 games being played midweek so missed out on predicting one game prior to it being played. As always my predictions are not altered even though made after the game has been played. The Currie Cup is proving difficult to predict however.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 6

No actual games played last weekend so previous week results are for two weekends ago. Whether games will be played this weekend, who knows.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

• From Radio NZ: an exegesis of the non-quantitative weakly graph-like thing that accompanied information about NZ vaccine rollout plans in March.  This was unusually bad for a graph from the NZ public service, but I think the story is overthinking it.
• The FDA approval of aducanumab for Alzheimer’s disease seems may have been procedurally a bit dodgy as well as scientifically dubious. (STAT($), Washington Post)
• photochrome.io will take a word or phrase and give you a colour palette based on photos found using the word/phrase
• “Why are gamers so much better at catching fraud than scientists?”  (I don’t think they are; they just care about it more)
• The US is having problems getting new electorates laid out because of the Census delays.  In NZ, one of the constraints on the Census 2018 data quality improvement process was that it absolutely positively had to be done in time for the Representation Commission to make electorates.
• A twitter thread on finding evidence of secret US flights into Australia. Only not.
• Why housing costs aren’t in the Consumer Price Index (but are in other indexes, which you might want to use instead)

Team Ratings for Round 18

Please note that I have treated most games as being played on neutral grounds, the exceptions being the Titans, Cowboys and Broncos home games. The NRL has announced that all clubs will be moved to Queensland and the games will be played at the same dates and times. However many of the games have their location still listed as TBA on the NRL website. I may have to issue an update later this week if the supposition of neutral grounds turns out to not be true. The most likely game where this might be the case is the Storm versus Knights game.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 5

A note concerning treatment of cancelled games, or where a 0-0 score is allocated. I delete any cancelled games from my database, but also any games with an awarded result. That is because awarded result games will almost always cause an adjustment to my ratings which is not justifiable.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Q: Did you see that learning maths can affect your brain?

A: Well, yes. There wouldn’t be much point otherwise

Q: No, biochemically affect it

A: Yes, that’s how learning works

Q: But the researchers “can actually guess with a very good accuracy whether someone is continuing to study maths or not just based on the concentration of this chemical in their brain.”

A: How good is “very good”?

Q: I thought I was the one who asked those questions.

A:

Q: How good is “very good”?

A: The research paper doesn’t say

Q: Can you get their data?

A: <downloading and analysis noises>

A: Ok, so in their data you can get about 66% accuracy, 55 correct out of 83, using this brain chemical

Q: And just by guessing?

A: 56% (46 out of 83)

Q: Are these changes in the brain good? I mean, apart from learning maths being good for learning maths?

A: That seems to be assumed, but they don’t explain why

Q: And what about subjects other than maths?

A: The Herald piece says the differences they saw with maths don’t happen with any other subject, but the research paper doesn’t say they did the comparisons — in fact, it more or less denies that they did, because it talks about how many comparisons they did just in terms of two brain regions and two chemicals, not in terms of other subjects studied.

Q: But in any case, learning some other subject might still cause different changes in the brain

A: I think we can guarantee that it does, yes

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.