Posts filed under General (3148)

December 1, 2020

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 6.86 5.63 1.20
Bulls 6.67 6.16 0.50
Western Province 4.76 5.26 -0.50
Lions 1.21 1.46 -0.30
Cheetahs -2.96 -2.96 -0.00
Pumas -7.89 -6.66 -1.20
Griquas -8.64 -8.90 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Nov 27 45 – 10 16.80 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Lions Nov 28 17 – 20 -5.90 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Bulls Nov 28 20 – 22 3.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Dec 04 Pumas 5.30
2 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Dec 05 Bulls 14.10
3 Lions vs. Western Province Dec 05 Lions 0.90

 

Pro14 Predictions for Rounds 4 and 5 Postponed Matches

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Team Ratings for Rounds 4 and 5 Postponed Matches

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 19.39 16.52 2.90
Munster 10.28 9.90 0.40
Ulster 7.88 4.58 3.30
Glasgow Warriors 3.81 5.66 -1.90
Edinburgh 3.72 5.49 -1.80
Scarlets 1.89 1.98 -0.10
Connacht 1.42 0.70 0.70
Cardiff Blues -0.43 0.08 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -3.28 -2.82 -0.50
Treviso -4.60 -3.50 -1.10
Dragons -8.01 -7.85 -0.20
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -16.70 -15.37 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 30 10 – 19 3.30 FALSE
2 Treviso vs. Dragons Dec 01 19 – 26 11.30 FALSE
3 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Dec 01 14 – 43 4.40 FALSE
4 Munster vs. Zebre Dec 01 52 – 3 32.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Rounds 4 and 5 Postponed Matches

Here are the predictions for Rounds 4 and 5 Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Treviso Dec 05 Connacht 11.50
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Dragons Dec 06 Glasgow Warriors 19.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.85 7.35 2.50
Wasps 4.33 5.66 -1.30
Sale Sharks 4.11 4.96 -0.90
Bristol 1.95 1.28 0.70
Bath -0.27 2.14 -2.40
Harlequins -1.14 -1.08 -0.10
Gloucester -1.22 -1.02 -0.20
Northampton Saints -3.47 -2.48 -1.00
Leicester Tigers -5.59 -6.14 0.50
Worcester Warriors -6.37 -5.71 -0.70
London Irish -7.07 -8.05 1.00
Newcastle Falcons -8.21 -10.00 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Nov 28 15 – 13 -9.00 FALSE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 29 29 – 49 4.60 FALSE
3 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 29 30 – 13 12.20 TRUE
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Nov 29 40 – 3 12.20 TRUE
5 Gloucester vs. Wasps Nov 29 40 – 24 -3.00 FALSE
6 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 30 22 – 9 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Dec 05 Bristol 9.90
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 06 Exeter Chiefs -10.90
3 Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 06 Wasps 17.00
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Dec 06 Bath -1.60
5 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Dec 07 Sale Sharks -6.70
6 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Dec 07 Gloucester 4.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 6.20 6.21 -0.00
Stade Toulousain 5.71 4.80 0.90
Lyon Rugby 5.48 5.61 -0.10
Clermont Auvergne 5.07 3.22 1.90
La Rochelle 4.55 2.32 2.20
RC Toulonnais 3.31 3.56 -0.30
Bordeaux-Begles 3.30 2.83 0.50
Montpellier 1.73 2.30 -0.60
Stade Francais Paris -0.08 -3.22 3.10
Castres Olympique -2.57 -0.47 -2.10
Section Paloise -3.00 -4.48 1.50
Brive -4.34 -3.26 -1.10
Aviron Bayonnais -4.93 -4.13 -0.80
SU Agen -9.86 -4.72 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Auvergne Nov 28 14 – 40 -0.60 TRUE
2 La Rochelle vs. Brive Nov 28 36 – 22 14.50 TRUE
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Francais Paris Nov 28 20 – 19 11.90 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 28 22 – 23 4.70 FALSE
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 28 43 – 17 15.80 TRUE
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Section Paloise Nov 28 18 – 13 12.90 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. SU Agen Nov 28 63 – 18 19.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 05 Stade Toulousain -5.10
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Racing-Metro 92 Dec 05 Bordeaux-Begles 2.60
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Montpellier Dec 05 Clermont Auvergne 8.80
4 Lyon Rugby vs. La Rochelle Dec 05 Lyon Rugby 6.40
5 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Dec 05 Section Paloise 5.10
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. RC Toulonnais Dec 05 Stade Francais Paris 2.10
7 SU Agen vs. Brive Dec 05 Brive -0.00

 

November 24, 2020

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 6.16 6.16 -0.00
Sharks 5.63 5.63 -0.00
Western Province 5.26 5.26 -0.00
Lions 1.46 1.46 -0.00
Cheetahs -2.96 -2.96 -0.00
Pumas -6.66 -6.66 0.00
Griquas -8.90 -8.90 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Nov 27 Sharks 16.80
2 Griquas vs. Lions Nov 28 Lions -5.90
3 Western Province vs. Bulls Nov 28 Western Province 3.60

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

So this year it is a constant battle to keep up with changes to schedules and I lost a skirmish last week with details of the postponed games. The predictions for last week are what I would have given if I had the match details correct.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lyon Rugby 5.90 5.61 0.30
Racing-Metro 92 5.80 6.21 -0.40
Stade Toulousain 4.92 4.80 0.10
La Rochelle 4.58 2.32 2.30
Clermont Auvergne 4.27 3.22 1.10
RC Toulonnais 3.87 3.56 0.30
Bordeaux-Begles 2.90 2.83 0.10
Montpellier 2.13 2.30 -0.20
Stade Francais Paris -0.50 -3.22 2.70
Castres Olympique -1.78 -0.47 -1.30
Section Paloise -3.56 -4.48 0.90
Brive -4.37 -3.26 -1.10
Aviron Bayonnais -4.53 -4.13 -0.40
SU Agen -9.06 -4.72 -4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Francais Paris vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 22 26 – 16 -0.50 FALSE
2 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Nov 23 9 – 6 0.80 TRUE
3 Aviron Bayonnais vs. RC Toulonnais Nov 22 35 – 29 -2.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Auvergne Nov 28 Clermont Auvergne -0.60
2 La Rochelle vs. Brive Nov 28 La Rochelle 14.50
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Francais Paris Nov 28 Lyon Rugby 11.90
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 28 Montpellier 4.70
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 28 Racing-Metro 92 15.80
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Section Paloise Nov 28 RC Toulonnais 12.90
7 Stade Toulousain vs. SU Agen Nov 28 Stade Toulousain 19.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 8.62 7.35 1.30
Wasps 5.30 5.66 -0.40
Sale Sharks 4.73 4.96 -0.20
Bristol 1.65 1.28 0.40
Bath 0.96 2.14 -1.20
Gloucester -2.20 -1.02 -1.20
Northampton Saints -2.25 -2.48 0.20
Harlequins -2.36 -1.08 -1.30
Leicester Tigers -4.96 -6.14 1.20
Worcester Warriors -6.07 -5.71 -0.40
London Irish -7.69 -8.05 0.40
Newcastle Falcons -8.82 -10.00 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 21 3 – 33 -3.90 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Nov 21 32 – 23 11.90 TRUE
3 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 21 12 – 19 16.60 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Nov 22 38 – 15 -0.60 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish Nov 22 11 – 10 6.80 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Bristol Nov 23 23 – 20 8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Nov 28 Sale Sharks -9.00
2 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 29 Northampton Saints 4.60
3 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 29 Bristol 12.20
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Nov 29 Exeter Chiefs 12.20
5 Gloucester vs. Wasps Nov 29 Wasps -3.00
6 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 30 London Irish 1.80

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 19.39 16.52 2.90
Munster 9.63 9.90 -0.30
Ulster 6.83 4.58 2.20
Edinburgh 4.77 5.49 -0.70
Glasgow Warriors 3.29 5.66 -2.40
Scarlets 1.89 1.98 -0.10
Connacht 1.42 0.70 0.70
Cardiff Blues 0.10 0.08 0.00
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -3.28 -2.82 -0.50
Treviso -3.91 -3.50 -0.40
Dragons -8.69 -7.85 -0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -16.05 -15.37 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 37 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Connacht Nov 23 12 – 47 -9.20 TRUE
2 Ospreys vs. Treviso Nov 23 24 – 22 8.30 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Cardiff Blues Nov 23 40 – 5 24.90 TRUE
4 Ulster vs. Scarlets Nov 23 26 – 24 12.40 TRUE
5 Glasgow Warriors vs. Munster Nov 24 13 – 27 1.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Ospreys Nov 29 Connacht 11.20
2 Scarlets vs. Leinster Nov 30 Leinster -11.00
3 Cardiff Blues vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 30 Cardiff Blues 3.30
4 Treviso vs. Dragons Dec 01 Treviso 11.30
5 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Dec 01 Edinburgh 4.40
6 Munster vs. Zebre Dec 01 Munster 32.20

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

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Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 11.99 15.13 -3.10
Auckland 8.19 6.75 1.40
Canterbury 6.78 8.40 -1.60
Bay of Plenty 5.97 8.21 -2.20
Wellington 5.73 6.47 -0.70
North Harbour 5.23 2.87 2.40
Hawke’s Bay 4.23 0.91 3.30
Waikato 2.02 1.31 0.70
Otago -3.44 -4.03 0.60
Taranaki -4.73 -4.42 -0.30
Northland -5.36 -8.71 3.40
Counties Manukau -10.75 -8.18 -2.60
Southland -10.78 -14.04 3.30
Manawatu -14.98 -10.57 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Northland Nov 20 19 – 32 7.50 FALSE
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Nov 21 23 – 18 10.00 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Nov 21 59 – 23 8.60 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Nov 21 19 – 10 9.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Nov 27 Hawke’s Bay 12.60
2 Auckland vs. Tasman Nov 28 Tasman -0.80

 

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November 21, 2020

Thanksgiving risks

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It’s quite difficult to exaggerate how bad the US coronavirus epidemic is. The Washington Post has managed.  They have a map showing the probability that a gathering of 10 local people for Thanksgiving will include at least one Covid case. They say

At the county level nationwide, the average estimated risk of running into a coronavirus-positive person at a 10-person gathering is just a hair under 40 percent. 

As the note on the map says, it assumes the actual case prevalence is 10 times the number of people with positive tests.  That’s a bit high — it comes from much earlier in the year, when testing was rarer).  It’s also a bit high if we assume that obviously unwell people (who are included in the prevalence estimate) are more likely to skip the celebration.

On top of that, though, the calculations (based on this paper) assume Covid infection status for the 10 participants is independent.  That was a reasonable approximation for the original paper, which looked at public gathering.  It’s not a great assumption for Thanksgiving, where people tend to attend in household groups.  The ‘effective’ gathering size will be less than the number of individuals, and closer to the number of households participating. So, if the prevalence is 1%, the risk based on three independent households is about 3%; the risk based on 10 independent people is about 10%. The truth will lie somewhere between.

And, as you can tell from looking at the map, there’s something wrong with saying the nationwide average risk is 40%, since 0-20% range includes nearly all the high-population parts of the US. The 40% is an average of counties, with no easy way to translate it into a risk for people.

Why am I pointing this out, when the map only strengthens the sensible public-health advice to stay the fuck away from Thanksgiving dinners? Because it is not true that 40% of the ten-person Thanksgiving gatherings in the US (and the vast majority of those in the Dakotas) should expect to come down with Covid this week, and people will notice that it wasn’t true. The truth doesn’t just matter for ethical reasons, it matters for any effective risk communication that isn’t just a one-shot attempt.

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