Posts filed under General (3148)

October 23, 2019

Publicise it while it still works?

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This is from The Times. In fact, per the BBC, it’s the leading story on the front page of tomorrow’s Times, above Brexit.

The drug in question, aducanumab, had promising and widely reported early results. It was less widely reported that the definitive clinical trials were stopped early in March of this year, when it wasn’t doing any good.  The decision to stop was based on data collected through last December; after stopping, more data has rolled in. Biogen, the makers of the drug, are now claiming that the data accumulated since then show a benefit at the highest dose; the FDA have given them permission to apply for approval.  Here’s what has happened to their stock price

So far, no detailed data or analyses have been published. The New York Times story, which is a lot more chill, says that the results will be presented at a conference in December. A working drug would be genuinely important news, but putting it on the front page right now would be a bit premature even in a slow news week.

There’s a general pattern with drug breakthrough news, where the good news is presented with big headlines in the main body of the paper, and the bad news that walks it back is in the business section, with small headlines.  One long-term result is a misleadingly optimistic public view of new drugs, most of which aren’t breakthroughs.

 

 

Update: note that the post-good-news stock price jump was a lot smaller than the post-bad-news collapse, and the price fell over the day after the peak — the stock markets aren’t betting on this being a spectacularly successful drug.

October 22, 2019

Predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this weekend’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the cup.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 28.74 27.60 1.10
England 21.46 19.78 1.70
South Africa 20.59 18.51 2.10
Ireland 10.56 12.12 -1.60
Wales 9.61 12.72 -3.10
Australia 6.60 8.70 -2.10
Scotland 6.14 5.44 0.70
France 5.26 7.11 -1.80
Argentina 3.32 4.15 -0.80
Japan -5.52 -7.67 2.20
Fiji -5.54 -5.27 -0.30
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -15.53 -11.89 -3.60
Tonga -15.83 -20.46 4.60
Georgia -18.08 -17.43 -0.70
USA -18.64 -16.38 -2.30
Uruguay -30.89 -35.67 4.80
Canada -34.63 -32.45 -2.20
Russia -36.32 -36.78 0.50
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 92.7%.
Here are the predictions for last weekend’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 England vs. Australia Oct 19 40 – 16 12.90 TRUE
2 New Zealand vs. Ireland Oct 19 46 – 14 15.10 TRUE
3 Wales vs. France Oct 20 20 – 19 5.10 TRUE
4 Japan vs. South Africa Oct 20 3 – 26 -18.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 England vs. New Zealand Oct 26 New Zealand -7.30
2 Wales vs. South Africa Oct 27 South Africa -11.00

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.51 9.34 -0.80
Exeter Chiefs 7.41 7.99 -0.60
Northampton Saints 1.08 0.25 0.80
Gloucester 0.96 0.58 0.40
Bath -0.19 1.10 -1.30
Sale Sharks -0.20 0.17 -0.40
Harlequins -0.23 -0.81 0.60
Wasps -0.41 0.31 -0.70
Bristol -1.48 -2.77 1.30
Leicester Tigers -2.04 -1.76 -0.30
Worcester Warriors -2.40 -2.69 0.30
London Irish -4.79 -5.51 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Bath Oct 19 43 – 16 0.60 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Oct 20 22 – 19 13.30 TRUE
3 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Oct 20 16 – 18 4.10 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Oct 20 25 – 27 13.60 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 20 24 – 16 3.60 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Oct 21 26 – 29 10.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 26 Exeter Chiefs -3.10
2 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 27 Northampton Saints 8.00
3 Gloucester vs. Wasps Oct 27 Gloucester 5.90
4 Harlequins vs. Bristol Oct 27 Harlequins 5.80
5 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Oct 27 Sale Sharks -0.10
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Oct 28 Saracens -6.00

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

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Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 19.59 9.00 10.60
Canterbury 11.92 12.92 -1.00
Auckland 10.73 11.57 -0.80
Wellington 10.37 10.92 -0.50
Bay of Plenty 10.21 -4.82 15.00
North Harbour 4.25 5.30 -1.10
Waikato 3.00 8.24 -5.20
Hawke’s Bay -1.09 -5.69 4.60
Otago -6.19 -1.49 -4.70
Taranaki -6.53 -5.22 -1.30
Counties Manukau -10.37 -1.99 -8.40
Northland -10.49 -6.23 -4.30
Manawatu -15.28 -11.67 -3.60
Southland -21.35 -22.08 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 18 64 – 3 22.60 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Oct 19 44 – 39 14.60 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Oct 19 30 – 19 8.70 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Canterbury Oct 18 18 – 9 1.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 25 Bay of Plenty 15.30
2 Tasman vs. Wellington Oct 26 Tasman 13.20

 

October 21, 2019

Algorithms Charter: request for comment

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There’s a “Draft Algorithms Charter” from the Government

The Ministry of Statistics is asking for  feedback on the draft charter by 31 December 2019. Specifically:

  • Does the proposed text provide you with increased confidence in how the government uses algorithms?
  • Should the Charter apply only to operational algorithms?
  • Have we got the right balance to enable innovation, while retaining transparency?
  • Have we captured your specific concerns and expectations, and those of your whānau, community or organisation?

 

Briefly

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  • Andrew Chen’s twitter reactions  to a workshop at VUW on regulating facial recognition technologies
  • Interactive exploration of fairness in predictive sentencing algorithms (the same issue as my ‘Kinds of fairness worth working for‘)
  • Beautiful new atlas of the land and people of Aotearoa, “We Are Here“, by Chris McDowall and Tim Denee. Also, their code and data source repository
  • Visualisations of various cities by the street name suffix, eg, Street vs Road vs Avenue
  • From Stuff: ‘Statistics New Zealand challenges Colliers analysis on housing demand’.   There has been a tendency to treat the 2013 2018 Census data as uniformly bad, and it would be good if people were a bit more discriminating — some of the data are of very high quality, and some are of very low quality.  You might, for example, read our report
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October 16, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.34 9.34 0.00
Exeter Chiefs 7.99 7.99 -0.00
Bath 1.10 1.10 0.00
Gloucester 0.58 0.58 -0.00
Wasps 0.31 0.31 -0.00
Northampton Saints 0.25 0.25 -0.00
Sale Sharks 0.17 0.17 -0.00
Harlequins -0.81 -0.81 -0.00
Leicester Tigers -1.76 -1.76 -0.00
Worcester Warriors -2.69 -2.69 -0.00
Bristol -2.77 -2.77 0.00
London Irish -5.51 -5.51 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Bath Oct 19 Bristol 0.60
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Oct 20 Exeter Chiefs 13.30
3 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Oct 20 Sale Sharks 4.10
4 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Oct 20 Saracens 13.60
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 20 Worcester Warriors 3.60
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Oct 21 Wasps 10.30

 

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October 15, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.81 12.20 1.60
Munster 9.39 10.73 -1.30
Glasgow Warriors 7.38 9.66 -2.30
Scarlets 5.13 3.91 1.20
Connacht 4.22 2.68 1.50
Ulster 2.13 1.89 0.20
Edinburgh 1.46 1.24 0.20
Ospreys 0.59 2.80 -2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.05 0.54 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.14 -3.38 3.20
Treviso -1.52 -1.33 -0.20
Dragons -9.51 -9.31 -0.20
Southern Kings -14.21 -14.70 0.50
Zebre -18.79 -16.93 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Munster Oct 12 40 – 16 -4.90 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Connacht Oct 12 14 – 38 -5.90 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Oct 12 40 – 14 17.30 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Zebre Oct 13 54 – 10 29.20 TRUE
5 Southern Kings vs. Ulster Oct 13 17 – 42 -8.60 TRUE
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 13 17 – 13 14.80 TRUE
7 Ospreys vs. Treviso Oct 13 24 – 20 9.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Ospreys Oct 26 Munster 15.30
2 Ulster vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 26 Ulster 8.60
3 Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 27 Glasgow Warriors -10.40
4 Treviso vs. Southern Kings Oct 27 Treviso 19.20
5 Connacht vs. Cheetahs Oct 27 Connacht 10.90
6 Zebre vs. Leinster Oct 27 Leinster -26.10
7 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Oct 27 Edinburgh 2.80

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 20.45 9.00 11.50
Canterbury 12.64 12.92 -0.30
Auckland 9.87 11.57 -1.70
Wellington 9.65 10.92 -1.30
Bay of Plenty 6.75 -4.82 11.60
North Harbour 4.25 5.30 -1.10
Waikato 3.00 8.24 -5.20
Hawke’s Bay -1.30 -5.69 4.40
Otago -5.98 -1.49 -4.50
Taranaki -6.53 -5.22 -1.30
Counties Manukau -10.37 -1.99 -8.40
Northland -10.49 -6.23 -4.30
Manawatu -11.83 -11.67 -0.20
Southland -21.35 -22.08 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 10 12 – 22 -27.20 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 11 11 – 35 -9.90 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Oct 12 28 – 47 -17.50 TRUE
4 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Oct 12 33 – 17 -0.40 FALSE
5 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 12 39 – 21 9.00 TRUE
6 Northland vs. Otago Oct 13 40 – 10 -7.20 FALSE
7 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Oct 13 31 – 25 13.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 18 Bay of Plenty 22.60
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Oct 19 Tasman 14.60
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Oct 19 Hawke’s Bay 8.70
4 Wellington vs. Canterbury Oct 18 Wellington 1.00

 

October 14, 2019

Predictions for the RWC Quarter-Finals

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Team Ratings for the RWC Quarter-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings, along with the ratings at the start of the cup.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.22 27.60 -0.40
England 20.46 19.78 0.70
South Africa 20.22 18.51 1.70
Ireland 12.08 12.12 -0.00
Wales 9.97 12.72 -2.70
Australia 7.60 8.70 -1.10
Scotland 6.14 5.44 0.70
France 4.89 7.11 -2.20
Argentina 3.32 4.15 -0.80
Japan -5.15 -7.67 2.50
Fiji -5.54 -5.27 -0.30
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -15.53 -11.89 -3.60
Tonga -15.83 -20.46 4.60
Georgia -18.08 -17.43 -0.70
USA -18.64 -16.38 -2.30
Uruguay -30.89 -35.67 4.80
Canada -34.63 -32.45 -2.20
Russia -36.32 -36.78 0.50
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 37 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 91.9%.
Here are the predictions for previous games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE
9 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 9 – 34 -23.50 TRUE
10 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 27 – 30 30.00 FALSE
11 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 48 – 7 23.10 TRUE
12 England vs. USA Sep 26 45 – 7 35.40 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE
14 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 19 – 12 -16.30 FALSE
15 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 57 – 3 59.50 TRUE
16 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 33 – 7 15.40 TRUE
17 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 25 – 29 -3.60 TRUE
18 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 34 – 0 15.60 TRUE
19 France vs. USA Oct 02 33 – 9 23.60 TRUE
20 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 63 – 0 61.70 TRUE
21 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 10 – 45 -7.80 TRUE
22 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 35 – 0 47.10 TRUE
23 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 49 – 3 25.60 TRUE
24 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 45 – 10 42.70 TRUE
25 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 39 – 10 15.80 TRUE
26 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 38 – 19 12.90 TRUE
27 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 71 – 9 68.40 TRUE
28 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 23 – 21 26.10 TRUE
29 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 66 – 7 53.90 TRUE
30 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 47 – 17 19.00 TRUE
31 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 61 – 0 40.00 TRUE
32 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 29 – 17 18.80 TRUE
33 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 27 – 8 27.20 TRUE
34 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 47 – 5 24.40 TRUE
35 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 19 – 31 -0.80 TRUE
36 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 35 – 13 45.00 TRUE
37 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 28 – 21 -7.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the RWC Quarter-Finals

Here are the predictions for the RWC Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 England vs. Australia Oct 19 England 12.90
2 New Zealand vs. Ireland Oct 19 New Zealand 15.10
3 Wales vs. France Oct 20 Wales 5.10
4 Japan vs. South Africa Oct 20 South Africa -18.90

 

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