Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

July 23, 2019

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.78 7.88 -0.10
Sharks 4.75 5.56 -0.80
Cheetahs 3.28 2.68 0.60
Lions 2.83 3.35 -0.50
Blue Bulls -0.53 0.30 -0.80
Pumas -7.50 -7.53 0.00
Griquas -9.10 -10.73 1.60
Cavaliers -11.86 -11.86 -0.00
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00
Kings -16.84 -16.84 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Pumas Jul 20 37 – 29 1.90 TRUE
2 Blue Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jul 20 27 – 43 1.90 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Western Province Jul 21 32 – 27 0.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Jul 27 Blue Bulls -2.50
2 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Jul 28 Cheetahs 16.90
3 Western Province vs. Lions Jul 28 Western Province 9.40

 

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July 16, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.91 6.03 5.90
Raiders 6.18 1.81 4.40
Roosters 5.54 8.72 -3.20
Rabbitohs 3.45 3.89 -0.40
Eels -0.53 -6.17 5.60
Knights -0.64 -8.51 7.90
Sea Eagles -0.88 -5.61 4.70
Sharks -1.08 3.90 -5.00
Warriors -1.43 -0.27 -1.20
Cowboys -1.61 0.15 -1.80
Broncos -1.65 2.63 -4.30
Panthers -1.78 0.93 -2.70
Dragons -2.77 0.06 -2.80
Wests Tigers -4.98 -5.57 0.60
Bulldogs -5.49 -0.61 -4.90
Titans -6.24 -3.36 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Titans Jul 12 24 – 2 5.10 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jul 12 14 – 20 10.10 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 13 21 – 20 8.40 TRUE
4 Broncos vs. Warriors Jul 13 18 – 18 5.00 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Sharks Jul 13 40 – 16 14.70 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Cowboys Jul 14 12 – 15 12.30 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 14 18 – 30 0.30 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 14 14 – 36 -3.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Jul 18 Broncos 6.80
2 Warriors vs. Sharks Jul 19 Warriors 4.10
3 Panthers vs. Dragons Jul 19 Panthers 4.00
4 Roosters vs. Knights Jul 20 Roosters 9.20
5 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Jul 20 Raiders 14.20
6 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Jul 20 Rabbitohs -2.10
7 Titans vs. Storm Jul 21 Storm -15.10
8 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Jul 21 Sea Eagles 2.60

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 8.11 7.88 0.20
Sharks 4.42 5.56 -1.10
Lions 2.83 3.35 -0.50
Cheetahs 2.68 2.68 0.00
Blue Bulls 0.07 0.30 -0.20
Pumas -7.01 -7.53 0.50
Griquas -9.59 -10.73 1.10
Cavaliers -11.86 -11.86 -0.00
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00
Kings -16.84 -16.84 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Griquas Jul 13 13 – 37 20.80 FALSE
2 Lions vs. Pumas Jul 14 38 – 37 15.40 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Jul 14 20 – 5 12.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Pumas Jul 20 Griquas 1.90
2 Blue Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jul 20 Blue Bulls 1.90
3 Sharks vs. Western Province Jul 21 Sharks 0.80

 

July 11, 2019

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.88 7.88 -0.00
Sharks 5.56 5.56 -0.00
Lions 3.35 3.35 -0.00
Cheetahs 2.68 2.68 0.00
Blue Bulls 0.30 0.30 -0.00
Pumas -7.53 -7.53 0.00
Griquas -10.73 -10.73 0.00
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Griquas Jul 13 Sharks 20.80
2 Lions vs. Pumas Jul 14 Lions 15.40
3 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Jul 14 Western Province 12.10

 

July 9, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.25 6.03 5.20
Roosters 6.61 8.72 -2.10
Raiders 4.88 1.81 3.10
Rabbitohs 3.97 3.89 0.10
Knights 0.49 -8.51 9.00
Sharks -0.43 3.90 -4.30
Broncos -1.30 2.63 -3.90
Eels -1.38 -6.17 4.80
Sea Eagles -1.40 -5.61 4.20
Dragons -1.46 0.06 -1.50
Warriors -1.78 -0.27 -1.50
Cowboys -2.68 0.15 -2.80
Panthers -2.96 0.93 -3.90
Wests Tigers -4.12 -5.57 1.40
Titans -5.06 -3.36 -1.70
Bulldogs -6.62 -0.61 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Storm Jul 04 14 – 16 -11.00 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jul 05 16 – 24 -7.70 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Warriors Jul 06 20 – 24 8.50 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Broncos Jul 07 22 – 24 4.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Titans Jul 12 Panthers 5.10
2 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jul 12 Knights 10.10
3 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 13 Rabbitohs 8.40
4 Broncos vs. Warriors Jul 13 Broncos 5.00
5 Storm vs. Sharks Jul 13 Storm 14.70
6 Roosters vs. Cowboys Jul 14 Roosters 12.30
7 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 14 Wests Tigers 0.30
8 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 14 Raiders -3.30

 

July 2, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

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Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.19 17.67 -0.50
Hurricanes 8.80 9.43 -0.60
Jaguares 7.36 -0.26 7.60
Chiefs 5.91 8.56 -2.60
Highlanders 4.28 4.01 0.30
Brumbies 2.03 0.00 2.00
Bulls 1.28 -3.79 5.10
Lions 0.40 8.28 -7.90
Blues -0.05 -3.42 3.40
Stormers -0.71 -0.39 -0.30
Sharks -0.85 0.45 -1.30
Waratahs -2.48 2.00 -4.50
Reds -5.86 -8.19 2.30
Rebels -7.82 -7.26 -0.60
Sunwolves -18.47 -16.08 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 125 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Jaguares vs. Brumbies Jun 29 39 – 7 6.20 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jun 29 30 – 26 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Jaguares Jul 06 Crusaders 13.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.88 6.03 5.80
Roosters 6.59 8.72 -2.10
Raiders 4.88 1.81 3.10
Rabbitohs 3.97 3.89 0.10
Knights 1.37 -8.51 9.90
Sharks 0.05 3.90 -3.90
Eels -1.38 -6.17 4.80
Sea Eagles -1.40 -5.61 4.20
Broncos -1.78 2.63 -4.40
Dragons -2.09 0.06 -2.10
Warriors -2.66 -0.27 -2.40
Cowboys -2.68 0.15 -2.80
Panthers -2.96 0.93 -3.90
Wests Tigers -4.10 -5.57 1.50
Titans -5.06 -3.36 -1.70
Bulldogs -6.62 -0.61 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 116 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 27 14 – 19 -5.10 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jun 28 22 – 14 2.90 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 28 12 – 14 -2.30 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 29 12 – 30 2.20 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Broncos Jun 29 26 – 12 4.90 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Raiders Jun 29 22 – 16 -4.80 FALSE
7 Warriors vs. Panthers Jun 30 18 – 19 5.70 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jun 30 14 – 12 -4.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Storm Jul 04 Storm -11.00
2 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jul 05 Roosters -7.70
3 Knights vs. Warriors Jul 06 Knights 8.50
4 Sharks vs. Broncos Jul 07 Sharks 4.80

 

June 25, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.72 17.67 0.10
Hurricanes 8.27 9.43 -1.20
Chiefs 5.91 8.56 -2.60
Jaguares 5.81 -0.26 6.10
Highlanders 4.28 4.01 0.30
Brumbies 3.57 0.00 3.60
Bulls 1.28 -3.79 5.10
Lions 0.40 8.28 -7.90
Blues -0.05 -3.42 3.40
Stormers -0.71 -0.39 -0.30
Sharks -0.85 0.45 -1.30
Waratahs -2.48 2.00 -4.50
Reds -5.86 -8.19 2.30
Rebels -7.82 -7.26 -0.60
Sunwolves -18.47 -16.08 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 123 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jan 14 38 – 14 16.00 TRUE
2 Jaguares vs. Chiefs Jun 21 21 – 16 3.80 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Bulls Jun 22 35 – 28 11.50 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Sharks Jun 22 38 – 13 6.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Jaguares vs. Brumbies Jun 29 Jaguares 6.20
2 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jun 29 Crusaders 13.00

 

June 18, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for the Quarter-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.24 17.67 -0.40
Hurricanes 8.54 9.43 -0.90
Chiefs 5.98 8.56 -2.60
Jaguares 5.74 -0.26 6.00
Highlanders 4.76 4.01 0.80
Brumbies 2.44 0.00 2.40
Bulls 1.01 -3.79 4.80
Lions 0.40 8.28 -7.90
Sharks 0.28 0.45 -0.20
Blues -0.05 -3.42 3.40
Stormers -0.71 -0.39 -0.30
Waratahs -2.48 2.00 -4.50
Reds -5.86 -8.19 2.30
Rebels -7.82 -7.26 -0.60
Sunwolves -18.47 -16.08 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Waratahs Jun 14 49 – 12 7.70 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Chiefs Jun 14 8 – 59 -4.20 TRUE
3 Jaguares vs. Sunwolves Jun 14 52 – 10 26.30 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jun 15 29 – 24 13.10 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Reds Jun 15 40 – 27 11.60 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Sharks Jun 15 9 – 12 3.30 FALSE
7 Bulls vs. Lions Jun 15 48 – 27 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jun 21 Crusaders 16.00
2 Jaguares vs. Chiefs Jun 21 Jaguares 3.80
3 Hurricanes vs. Bulls Jun 22 Hurricanes 11.50
4 Brumbies vs. Sharks Jun 22 Brumbies 6.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.91 6.03 5.90
Roosters 6.56 8.72 -2.20
Raiders 5.63 1.81 3.80
Rabbitohs 3.97 3.89 0.10
Knights 0.73 -8.51 9.20
Sharks 0.51 3.90 -3.40
Broncos -1.14 2.63 -3.80
Eels -2.14 -6.17 4.00
Warriors -2.19 -0.27 -1.90
Cowboys -2.32 0.15 -2.50
Dragons -2.45 0.06 -2.50
Sea Eagles -2.81 -5.61 2.80
Panthers -3.43 0.93 -4.40
Titans -3.64 -3.36 -0.30
Wests Tigers -4.11 -5.57 1.50
Bulldogs -7.08 -0.61 -6.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Sharks Jun 13 38 – 12 5.20 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Warriors Jun 14 20 – 24 4.20 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Jun 14 26 – 27 5.70 FALSE
4 Storm vs. Knights Jun 15 34 – 4 11.60 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Jun 15 18 – 19 12.30 FALSE
6 Eels vs. Broncos Jun 15 38 – 10 -2.20 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jun 16 22 – 20 2.70 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jun 16 34 – 14 16.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 27 Rabbitohs -5.10
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jun 28 Dragons 2.90
3 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 28 Storm -2.30
4 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 29 Titans 2.20
5 Knights vs. Broncos Jun 29 Knights 4.90
6 Eels vs. Raiders Jun 29 Raiders -4.80
7 Warriors vs. Panthers Jun 30 Warriors 5.70
8 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jun 30 Sharks -4.60

 

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