Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

August 20, 2019

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.22 7.88 -0.70
Sharks 4.81 5.56 -0.80
Cheetahs 3.70 2.68 1.00
Lions 2.92 3.35 -0.40
Blue Bulls -0.56 0.30 -0.90
Pumas -8.02 -7.53 -0.50
Griquas -8.55 -10.73 2.20
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 17 27 – 23 -12.40 FALSE
2 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 18 37 – 46 -6.90 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Aug 19 28 – 30 3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 25 Lions -7.00
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Aug 25 Cheetahs 1.00
3 Blue Bulls vs. Sharks Aug 25 Sharks -0.90

 

August 13, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.26 6.03 7.20
Roosters 10.11 8.72 1.40
Raiders 8.11 1.81 6.30
Rabbitohs 2.31 3.89 -1.60
Sea Eagles 1.47 -5.61 7.10
Sharks -0.21 3.90 -4.10
Eels -0.81 -6.17 5.40
Broncos -0.94 2.63 -3.60
Panthers -1.49 0.93 -2.40
Wests Tigers -2.61 -5.57 3.00
Warriors -2.95 -0.27 -2.70
Dragons -3.95 0.06 -4.00
Cowboys -4.05 0.15 -4.20
Knights -4.28 -8.51 4.20
Bulldogs -5.47 -0.61 -4.90
Titans -10.47 -3.36 -7.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 08 14 – 18 0.50 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Aug 09 24 – 16 -1.20 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Sharks Aug 09 26 – 20 1.00 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 10 40 – 28 9.10 TRUE
5 Eels vs. Knights Aug 10 20 – 14 6.60 TRUE
6 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 10 18 – 16 -0.20 FALSE
7 Raiders vs. Roosters Aug 11 18 – 22 1.80 FALSE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Aug 11 16 – 26 -7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Aug 15 Sea Eagles 7.10
2 Titans vs. Eels Aug 16 Eels -6.70
3 Broncos vs. Panthers Aug 16 Broncos 3.50
4 Knights vs. Cowboys Aug 17 Knights 2.80
5 Storm vs. Raiders Aug 17 Storm 8.20
6 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 17 Rabbitohs 10.80
7 Roosters vs. Warriors Aug 18 Roosters 17.60
8 Sharks vs. Dragons Aug 18 Sharks 6.70

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 12.59 12.92 -0.30
Tasman 12.14 9.00 3.10
Auckland 10.64 11.57 -0.90
Waikato 8.57 8.24 0.30
Wellington 7.78 10.92 -3.10
North Harbour 6.23 5.30 0.90
Bay of Plenty -1.01 -4.82 3.80
Counties Manukau -3.09 -1.99 -1.10
Taranaki -4.12 -5.22 1.10
Hawke’s Bay -4.25 -5.69 1.40
Otago -5.30 -1.49 -3.80
Northland -6.40 -6.23 -0.20
Manawatu -13.11 -11.67 -1.40
Southland -21.92 -22.08 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Northland Aug 08 17 – 27 -11.90 TRUE
2 Auckland vs. North Harbour Aug 09 28 – 28 10.30 FALSE
3 Tasman vs. Wellington Aug 10 45 – 8 2.10 TRUE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Aug 10 29 – 34 7.20 FALSE
5 Waikato vs. Canterbury Aug 10 31 – 28 -0.70 FALSE
6 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Aug 11 50 – 7 0.70 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 11 13 – 31 -2.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Auckland Aug 15 Auckland -13.00
2 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 16 North Harbour 13.30
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Aug 16 Wellington -8.00
4 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Aug 17 Taranaki -5.00
5 Otago vs. Southland Aug 17 Otago 20.60
6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Aug 18 Canterbury 4.40
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 18 Waikato -5.60

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.79 7.88 -0.10
Sharks 4.37 5.56 -1.20
Cheetahs 3.53 2.68 0.90
Lions 3.36 3.35 0.00
Blue Bulls -0.56 0.30 -0.90
Pumas -7.85 -7.53 -0.30
Griquas -9.11 -10.73 1.60
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Pumas Aug 10 45 – 14 19.20 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Aug 11 27 – 20 5.00 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Blue Bulls Aug 11 26 – 31 9.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 17 Western Province -12.40
2 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 18 Cheetahs -6.90
3 Lions vs. Sharks Aug 19 Lions 3.50

 

August 6, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.10 6.03 7.10
Roosters 9.70 8.72 1.00
Raiders 8.51 1.81 6.70
Rabbitohs 2.48 3.89 -1.40
Sea Eagles 2.11 -5.61 7.70
Sharks 0.14 3.90 -3.80
Eels -0.77 -6.17 5.40
Broncos -1.26 2.63 -3.90
Panthers -1.84 0.93 -2.80
Wests Tigers -2.46 -5.57 3.10
Warriors -3.59 -0.27 -3.30
Cowboys -3.74 0.15 -3.90
Dragons -4.15 0.06 -4.20
Knights -4.32 -8.51 4.20
Bulldogs -5.62 -0.61 -5.00
Titans -10.27 -3.36 -6.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 01 28 – 4 1.10 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 02 12 – 46 -3.30 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 02 4 – 40 -7.30 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Aug 03 30 – 6 7.10 TRUE
5 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Aug 03 16 – 8 -2.20 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Aug 03 39 – 24 -1.70 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Titans Aug 04 58 – 6 18.20 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Eels Aug 04 4 – 12 0.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 08 Cowboys 0.50
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Aug 09 Sea Eagles -1.20
3 Panthers vs. Sharks Aug 09 Panthers 1.00
4 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 10 Dragons 9.10
5 Eels vs. Knights Aug 10 Eels 6.60
6 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 10 Wests Tigers -0.20
7 Raiders vs. Roosters Aug 11 Raiders 1.80
8 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Aug 11 Storm -7.60

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 12.92 12.92 0.00
Auckland 11.57 11.57 0.00
Wellington 10.92 10.92 0.00
Tasman 9.00 9.00 0.00
Waikato 8.24 8.24 -0.00
North Harbour 5.30 5.30 -0.00
Otago -1.49 -1.49 -0.00
Counties Manukau -1.99 -1.99 0.00
Bay of Plenty -4.82 -4.82 0.00
Taranaki -5.22 -5.22 -0.00
Hawke’s Bay -5.69 -5.69 -0.00
Northland -6.23 -6.23 0.00
Manawatu -11.67 -11.67 -0.00
Southland -22.08 -22.08 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Northland Aug 08 Northland -11.90
2 Auckland vs. North Harbour Aug 09 Auckland 10.30
3 Tasman vs. Wellington Aug 10 Tasman 2.10
4 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Aug 10 Counties Manukau 7.20
5 Waikato vs. Canterbury Aug 10 Canterbury -0.70
6 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Aug 11 Bay of Plenty 0.70
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 11 Hawke’s Bay -2.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.34 7.88 -0.50
Sharks 4.21 5.56 -1.40
Lions 3.88 3.35 0.50
Cheetahs 3.69 2.68 1.00
Blue Bulls -1.08 0.30 -1.40
Pumas -7.41 -7.53 0.10
Griquas -9.11 -10.73 1.60
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 03 22 – 24 5.50 FALSE
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 04 27 – 20 -8.20 FALSE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 04 15 – 37 14.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Pumas Aug 10 Western Province 19.20
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Aug 11 Sharks 5.00
3 Lions vs. Blue Bulls Aug 11 Lions 9.50

 

July 30, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.09 6.03 5.10
Roosters 7.34 8.72 -1.40
Raiders 6.36 1.81 4.60
Rabbitohs 3.64 3.89 -0.20
Sea Eagles 0.92 -5.61 6.50
Broncos 0.74 2.63 -1.90
Sharks -1.03 3.90 -4.90
Panthers -1.13 0.93 -2.10
Eels -1.39 -6.17 4.80
Warriors -1.44 -0.27 -1.20
Cowboys -2.13 0.15 -2.30
Knights -3.14 -8.51 5.40
Dragons -3.53 0.06 -3.60
Wests Tigers -4.07 -5.57 1.50
Bulldogs -6.33 -0.61 -5.70
Titans -7.91 -3.36 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Jul 25 16 – 14 4.40 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 26 26 – 28 4.90 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Jul 26 20 – 16 11.20 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Warriors Jul 27 24 – 22 5.00 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Broncos Jul 27 12 – 34 -3.00 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Jul 27 10 – 11 15.50 FALSE
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jul 28 12 – 20 -11.10 TRUE
8 Panthers vs. Raiders Jul 28 18 – 30 -3.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 01 Wests Tigers 1.10
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 02 Raiders -3.30
3 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 02 Storm -7.30
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Aug 03 Sea Eagles 7.10
5 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Aug 03 Panthers -2.20
6 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Aug 03 Rabbitohs -1.70
7 Roosters vs. Titans Aug 04 Roosters 18.20
8 Dragons vs. Eels Aug 04 Dragons 0.90

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.34 7.88 -0.50
Sharks 4.75 5.56 -0.80
Cheetahs 4.29 2.68 1.60
Lions 3.27 3.35 -0.10
Blue Bulls -0.09 0.30 -0.40
Pumas -7.94 -7.53 -0.40
Griquas -10.11 -10.73 0.60
Cheetahs2 -14.26 -14.26 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Jul 27 17 – 25 -2.50 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Jul 28 68 – 14 16.90 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Lions Jul 28 28 – 30 9.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 03 Cheetahs 5.50
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 04 Sharks -8.20
3 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 04 Blue Bulls 14.50

 

July 23, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.25 6.03 6.20
Roosters 7.56 8.72 -1.20
Raiders 5.75 1.81 3.90
Rabbitohs 4.15 3.89 0.30
Sea Eagles -0.23 -5.61 5.40
Panthers -0.52 0.93 -1.40
Broncos -0.59 2.63 -3.20
Sharks -0.86 3.90 -4.80
Eels -1.18 -6.17 5.00
Warriors -1.65 -0.27 -1.40
Cowboys -2.30 0.15 -2.50
Knights -2.66 -8.51 5.80
Dragons -4.03 0.06 -4.10
Wests Tigers -4.55 -5.57 1.00
Bulldogs -6.55 -0.61 -5.90
Titans -6.58 -3.36 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Jul 18 28 – 6 6.80 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Sharks Jul 19 19 – 18 4.10 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Dragons Jul 19 40 – 18 4.00 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Knights Jul 20 48 – 10 9.20 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Jul 20 20 – 12 14.20 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Jul 20 18 – 30 -2.10 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Storm Jul 21 18 – 38 -15.10 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Jul 21 36 – 24 2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Jul 25 Sharks 4.40
2 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 26 Knights 4.90
3 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Jul 26 Rabbitohs 11.20
4 Eels vs. Warriors Jul 27 Eels 5.00
5 Titans vs. Broncos Jul 27 Broncos -3.00
6 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Jul 27 Storm 15.50
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jul 28 Roosters -11.10
8 Panthers vs. Raiders Jul 28 Raiders -3.30

 

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