Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

June 14, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.18 16.73 -7.60
Panthers 5.61 2.64 3.00
Dragons 3.86 -0.45 4.30
Rabbitohs 3.55 -3.90 7.40
Sharks 3.18 2.20 1.00
Roosters 1.56 0.13 1.40
Raiders -0.02 3.50 -3.50
Broncos -0.14 4.78 -4.90
Cowboys -0.14 2.97 -3.10
Wests Tigers -0.79 -3.63 2.80
Bulldogs -2.08 -3.43 1.30
Warriors -2.27 -6.97 4.70
Sea Eagles -3.94 -1.07 -2.90
Eels -5.44 1.51 -7.00
Knights -7.12 -8.43 1.30
Titans -7.33 -8.91 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Panthers Jun 08 22 – 23 -2.90 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jun 08 16 – 18 -8.80 TRUE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jun 09 14 – 34 6.50 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Roosters Jun 09 16 – 18 -6.30 TRUE
5 Eels vs. Cowboys Jun 09 20 – 14 -3.70 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Jun 10 24 – 16 6.80 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Broncos Jun 10 32 – 16 11.70 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 11 16 – 18 -3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jun 14 Rabbitohs -6.00
2 Cowboys vs. Warriors Jun 15 Cowboys 6.60
3 Roosters vs. Panthers Jun 15 Panthers -1.10
4 Bulldogs vs. Titans Jun 16 Bulldogs 8.20
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jun 16 Dragons 10.80
6 Sharks vs. Broncos Jun 16 Sharks 6.30
7 Knights vs. Storm Jun 17 Storm -13.30
8 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 17 Wests Tigers 2.20

 

June 6, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.52 15.23 0.30
Hurricanes 12.56 16.18 -3.60
Lions 8.48 13.81 -5.30
Highlanders 7.90 10.29 -2.40
Chiefs 7.64 9.29 -1.60
Waratahs 1.05 -3.92 5.00
Sharks 0.78 1.02 -0.20
Jaguares 0.62 -4.64 5.30
Stormers -0.58 1.48 -2.10
Bulls -2.90 -4.79 1.90
Blues -2.99 -0.24 -2.80
Brumbies -3.06 1.75 -4.80
Rebels -8.00 -14.96 7.00
Reds -9.21 -9.47 0.30
Sunwolves -15.24 -18.42 3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 99 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Jun 01 30 – 14 -3.50 FALSE
2 Blues vs. Rebels Jun 02 10 – 20 11.60 FALSE
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jun 02 20 – 34 -3.10 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Waratahs Jun 02 41 – 52 -6.20 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Sunwolves Jun 03 41 – 31 17.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Reds Jun 29 Blues 10.20
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Jun 29 Waratahs -5.60
3 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 30 Highlanders 3.80
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 30 Hurricanes -11.60
5 Sunwolves vs. Bulls Jun 30 Bulls -8.30
6 Sharks vs. Lions Jun 30 Lions -4.20
7 Jaguares vs. Stormers Jun 30 Jaguares 5.20

 

June 5, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.88 16.73 -7.90
Panthers 5.75 2.64 3.10
Rabbitohs 4.03 -3.90 7.90
Dragons 3.94 -0.45 4.40
Sharks 3.10 2.20 0.90
Roosters 1.86 0.13 1.70
Cowboys 0.54 2.97 -2.40
Broncos 0.15 4.78 -4.60
Raiders -0.15 3.50 -3.70
Wests Tigers -0.70 -3.63 2.90
Sea Eagles -2.08 -1.07 -1.00
Bulldogs -2.16 -3.43 1.30
Warriors -4.13 -6.97 2.80
Eels -6.11 1.51 -7.60
Knights -7.42 -8.43 1.00
Titans -7.81 -8.91 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys May 31 12 – 26 2.70 FALSE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Jun 01 22 – 14 3.30 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Knights Jun 02 4 – 30 9.20 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jun 03 16 – 14 6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Panthers Jun 08 Panthers -2.90
2 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jun 08 Rabbitohs -8.80
3 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jun 09 Sea Eagles 6.50
4 Knights vs. Roosters Jun 09 Roosters -6.30
5 Eels vs. Cowboys Jun 09 Cowboys -3.70
6 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Jun 10 Sharks 6.80
7 Storm vs. Broncos Jun 10 Storm 11.70
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 11 Dragons -3.10

 

May 29, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.86 15.23 -0.40
Hurricanes 13.73 16.18 -2.40
Lions 8.48 13.81 -5.30
Chiefs 8.30 9.29 -1.00
Highlanders 6.73 10.29 -3.60
Sharks 0.78 1.02 -0.20
Waratahs 0.76 -3.92 4.70
Jaguares 0.62 -4.64 5.30
Stormers -0.58 1.48 -2.10
Blues -1.70 -0.24 -1.50
Brumbies -2.64 1.75 -4.40
Bulls -2.90 -4.79 1.90
Reds -8.92 -9.47 0.60
Rebels -9.30 -14.96 5.70
Sunwolves -15.66 -18.42 2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 94 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes May 25 24 – 13 3.80 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Sunwolves May 25 40 – 13 8.10 TRUE
3 Jaguares vs. Sharks May 25 29 – 13 2.20 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Waratahs May 26 39 – 27 11.50 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Highlanders May 26 15 – 18 -12.80 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Brumbies May 26 28 – 38 5.60 FALSE
7 Stormers vs. Lions May 26 23 – 26 -5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Jun 01 Hurricanes -3.50
2 Blues vs. Rebels Jun 02 Blues 11.60
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jun 02 Crusaders -3.10
4 Reds vs. Waratahs Jun 02 Waratahs -6.20
5 Brumbies vs. Sunwolves Jun 03 Brumbies 17.00

 

NRL Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.88 16.73 -7.90
Panthers 5.75 2.64 3.10
Dragons 3.94 -0.45 4.40
Rabbitohs 3.69 -3.90 7.60
Sharks 3.43 2.20 1.20
Roosters 2.15 0.13 2.00
Broncos 0.15 4.78 -4.60
Raiders -0.15 3.50 -3.70
Cowboys -0.63 2.97 -3.60
Sea Eagles -0.91 -1.07 0.20
Wests Tigers -0.99 -3.63 2.60
Bulldogs -2.16 -3.43 1.30
Eels -3.65 1.51 -5.20
Warriors -4.13 -6.97 2.80
Titans -7.81 -8.91 1.10
Knights -9.88 -8.43 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Eels May 24 18 – 10 6.60 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles May 25 21 – 20 4.20 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Storm May 25 6 – 7 -7.40 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Titans May 26 34 – 14 11.80 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs May 26 10 – 30 -0.60 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Dragons May 26 28 – 2 1.40 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Sharks May 27 10 – 48 -5.80 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 27 14 – 10 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys May 31 Sea Eagles 2.70
2 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Jun 01 Rabbitohs 3.30
3 Eels vs. Knights Jun 02 Eels 9.20
4 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jun 03 Roosters 6.10

 

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May 22, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.43 15.23 -0.80
Hurricanes 14.16 16.18 -2.00
Lions 8.66 13.81 -5.10
Chiefs 8.27 9.29 -1.00
Highlanders 7.32 10.29 -3.00
Sharks 1.61 1.02 0.60
Waratahs 0.80 -3.92 4.70
Jaguares -0.21 -4.64 4.40
Stormers -0.75 1.48 -2.20
Blues -1.70 -0.24 -1.50
Bulls -1.96 -4.79 2.80
Brumbies -3.57 1.75 -5.30
Reds -9.51 -9.47 -0.00
Rebels -10.43 -14.96 4.50
Sunwolves -14.52 -18.42 3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 87 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Reds May 18 38 – 34 30.90 TRUE
2 Sunwolves vs. Stormers May 19 26 – 23 -11.50 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Crusaders May 19 24 – 32 -13.30 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Highlanders May 19 41 – 12 -6.80 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Chiefs May 19 28 – 24 -3.60 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Brumbies May 19 42 – 24 16.00 TRUE
7 Jaguares vs. Bulls May 19 54 – 24 2.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes May 25 Crusaders 3.80
2 Rebels vs. Sunwolves May 25 Rebels 8.10
3 Jaguares vs. Sharks May 25 Jaguares 2.20
4 Chiefs vs. Waratahs May 26 Chiefs 11.50
5 Reds vs. Highlanders May 26 Highlanders -12.80
6 Bulls vs. Brumbies May 26 Bulls 5.60
7 Stormers vs. Lions May 26 Lions -5.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.33 16.73 -7.40
Dragons 5.66 -0.45 6.10
Panthers 4.02 2.64 1.40
Rabbitohs 2.34 -3.90 6.20
Roosters 1.58 0.13 1.40
Sharks 1.18 2.20 -1.00
Raiders 0.07 3.50 -3.40
Broncos 0.06 4.78 -4.70
Wests Tigers -0.98 -3.63 2.70
Cowboys -1.08 2.97 -4.00
Sea Eagles -1.14 -1.07 -0.10
Bulldogs -2.17 -3.43 1.30
Warriors -2.77 -6.97 4.20
Eels -3.55 1.51 -5.10
Titans -7.24 -8.91 1.70
Knights -7.63 -8.43 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers May 17 16 – 2 7.00 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Warriors May 18 14 – 24 6.00 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 18 28 – 22 0.70 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Knights May 19 33 – 26 2.80 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs May 19 19 – 20 -0.30 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Sea Eagles May 19 4 – 24 18.90 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Raiders May 20 25 – 18 8.80 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Bulldogs May 20 22 – 16 6.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Eels May 24 Broncos 6.60
2 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles May 25 Raiders 4.20
3 Cowboys vs. Storm May 25 Storm -7.40
4 Roosters vs. Titans May 26 Roosters 11.80
5 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs May 26 Rabbitohs -0.60
6 Panthers vs. Dragons May 26 Panthers 1.40
7 Knights vs. Sharks May 27 Sharks -5.80
8 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 27 Wests Tigers 4.20

 

Aviva Premiership Predictions for the Final

By

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 13.50 7.47 6.00
Exeter Chiefs 11.19 7.99 3.20
Wasps 5.79 5.89 -0.10
Leicester Tigers 4.61 4.64 -0.00
Bath Rugby 1.95 1.23 0.70
Sale Sharks 0.18 -1.73 1.90
Gloucester Rugby -1.74 0.21 -1.90
Northampton Saints -1.77 1.53 -3.30
Newcastle Falcons -2.26 -3.33 1.10
Harlequins -3.57 0.84 -4.40
Worcester Warriors -4.85 -4.37 -0.50
London Irish -7.61 -4.94 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 134 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Saracens vs. Wasps May 19 57 – 36 9.90 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons May 19 33 – 5 15.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens May 26 Saracens -2.30

 

May 15, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 15.78 16.18 -0.40
Crusaders 14.74 15.23 -0.50
Highlanders 9.47 10.29 -0.80
Chiefs 8.72 9.29 -0.60
Lions 8.54 13.81 -5.30
Sharks 1.16 1.02 0.10
Stormers 0.12 1.48 -1.40
Bulls -0.31 -4.79 4.50
Waratahs -1.35 -3.92 2.60
Jaguares -1.86 -4.64 2.80
Blues -2.01 -0.24 -1.80
Brumbies -3.45 1.75 -5.20
Rebels -10.43 -14.96 4.50
Reds -11.12 -9.47 -1.60
Sunwolves -15.39 -18.42 3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 11 15 – 36 -13.40 TRUE
2 Sunwolves vs. Reds May 12 63 – 28 -5.10 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 12 31 – 29 22.60 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Lions May 12 39 – 27 4.00 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Rebels May 12 24 – 27 12.30 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Chiefs May 12 9 – 15 -4.40 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Sharks May 12 39 – 33 1.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Reds May 18 Hurricanes 30.90
2 Sunwolves vs. Stormers May 19 Stormers -11.50
3 Blues vs. Crusaders May 19 Crusaders -13.30
4 Waratahs vs. Highlanders May 19 Highlanders -6.80
5 Sharks vs. Chiefs May 19 Chiefs -3.60
6 Lions vs. Brumbies May 19 Lions 16.00
7 Jaguares vs. Bulls May 19 Jaguares 2.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.06 16.73 -4.70
Dragons 5.79 -0.45 6.20
Panthers 3.53 2.64 0.90
Rabbitohs 2.29 -3.90 6.20
Roosters 1.95 0.13 1.80
Sharks 1.21 2.20 -1.00
Raiders -0.06 3.50 -3.60
Broncos -0.31 4.78 -5.10
Wests Tigers -0.49 -3.63 3.10
Cowboys -1.03 2.97 -4.00
Bulldogs -2.20 -3.43 1.20
Eels -2.43 1.51 -3.90
Sea Eagles -3.86 -1.07 -2.80
Warriors -3.88 -6.97 3.10
Knights -7.34 -8.43 1.10
Titans -7.53 -8.91 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 10 20 – 12 2.80 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Panthers May 11 18 – 29 -7.40 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Eels May 11 20 – 12 2.50 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Roosters May 12 0 – 32 3.70 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Titans May 12 28 – 14 24.00 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 12 38 – 24 -2.90 FALSE
7 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons May 13 24 – 10 -2.90 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Sharks May 13 16 – 24 3.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers May 17 Panthers 7.00
2 Eels vs. Warriors May 18 Eels 6.00
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 18 Broncos 0.70
4 Titans vs. Knights May 19 Titans 2.80
5 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs May 19 Rabbitohs -0.30
6 Storm vs. Sea Eagles May 19 Storm 18.90
7 Dragons vs. Raiders May 20 Dragons 8.80
8 Sharks vs. Bulldogs May 20 Sharks 6.40

 

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