Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

May 8, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.98 15.23 0.80
Hurricanes 15.32 16.18 -0.90
Lions 9.02 13.81 -4.80
Highlanders 8.99 10.29 -1.30
Chiefs 8.62 9.29 -0.70
Sharks 1.43 1.02 0.40
Stormers 0.21 1.48 -1.30
Bulls -0.58 -4.79 4.20
Blues -1.56 -0.24 -1.30
Jaguares -1.86 -4.64 2.80
Brumbies -2.53 1.75 -4.30
Waratahs -2.59 -3.92 1.30
Reds -8.71 -9.47 0.80
Rebels -11.35 -14.96 3.60
Sunwolves -17.80 -18.42 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 73 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Jaguares May 04 19 – 23 17.00 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Crusaders May 04 10 – 55 -20.40 TRUE
3 Waratahs vs. Blues May 05 21 – 24 3.80 FALSE
4 Hurricanes vs. Lions May 05 28 – 19 10.50 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Bulls May 05 29 – 17 3.20 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Highlanders May 05 38 – 12 -7.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 11 Hurricanes -13.40
2 Sunwolves vs. Reds May 12 Reds -5.10
3 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 12 Crusaders 22.60
4 Highlanders vs. Lions May 12 Highlanders 4.00
5 Brumbies vs. Rebels May 12 Brumbies 12.30
6 Stormers vs. Chiefs May 12 Chiefs -4.40
7 Bulls vs. Sharks May 12 Bulls 1.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.76 16.73 -4.00
Dragons 6.97 -0.45 7.40
Panthers 3.28 2.64 0.60
Rabbitohs 1.11 -3.90 5.00
Broncos 0.87 4.78 -3.90
Raiders 0.74 3.50 -2.80
Sharks 0.42 2.20 -1.80
Roosters -0.55 0.13 -0.70
Cowboys -0.67 2.97 -3.60
Wests Tigers -0.85 -3.63 2.80
Warriors -1.39 -6.97 5.60
Eels -2.04 1.51 -3.60
Bulldogs -2.59 -3.43 0.80
Sea Eagles -5.05 -1.07 -4.00
Knights -7.08 -8.43 1.40
Titans -8.23 -8.91 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs May 03 22 – 20 7.20 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Rabbitohs May 04 18 – 36 -3.10 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Cowboys May 04 20 – 26 9.10 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Titans May 05 32 – 18 11.60 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers May 05 26 – 4 1.00 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Eels May 05 22 – 20 6.00 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Storm May 06 34 – 14 -6.50 FALSE
8 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles May 06 22 – 20 8.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 10 Wests Tigers 2.80
2 Knights vs. Panthers May 11 Panthers -7.40
3 Bulldogs vs. Eels May 11 Bulldogs 2.50
4 Warriors vs. Roosters May 12 Warriors 3.70
5 Storm vs. Titans May 12 Storm 24.00
6 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 12 Broncos -2.90
7 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons May 13 Dragons -2.90
8 Raiders vs. Sharks May 13 Raiders 3.30

 

Aviva Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 13.09 7.47 5.60
Exeter Chiefs 10.74 7.99 2.70
Wasps 6.20 5.89 0.30
Leicester Tigers 4.61 4.64 -0.00
Bath Rugby 1.95 1.23 0.70
Sale Sharks 0.18 -1.73 1.90
Gloucester Rugby -1.74 0.21 -1.90
Northampton Saints -1.77 1.53 -3.30
Newcastle Falcons -1.80 -3.33 1.50
Harlequins -3.57 0.84 -4.40
Worcester Warriors -4.85 -4.37 -0.50
London Irish -7.61 -4.94 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 132 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. London Irish May 05 63 – 19 10.60 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs May 05 17 – 41 -10.30 TRUE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps May 05 22 – 39 -4.10 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors May 05 32 – 24 5.80 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 05 13 – 35 -0.00 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Gloucester Rugby May 05 62 – 12 15.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Saracens vs. Wasps May 19 Saracens 9.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons May 19 Exeter Chiefs 15.50

 

May 1, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 15.41 16.18 -0.80
Crusaders 14.50 15.23 -0.70
Highlanders 11.01 10.29 0.70
Chiefs 9.89 9.29 0.60
Lions 8.93 13.81 -4.90
Bulls -0.05 -4.79 4.70
Stormers -0.31 1.48 -1.80
Sharks -0.59 1.02 -1.60
Blues -1.96 -0.24 -1.70
Waratahs -2.18 -3.92 1.70
Brumbies -2.53 1.75 -4.30
Jaguares -3.12 -4.64 1.50
Reds -8.71 -9.47 0.80
Rebels -9.87 -14.96 5.10
Sunwolves -17.80 -18.42 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 67 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Sunwolves Apr 27 43 – 15 38.50 TRUE
2 Stormers vs. Rebels Apr 27 34 – 18 13.20 TRUE
3 Reds vs. Lions Apr 28 27 – 22 -16.20 FALSE
4 Blues vs. Jaguares Apr 28 13 – 20 6.80 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Crusaders Apr 28 8 – 21 -13.00 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Highlanders Apr 28 28 – 29 -7.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Jaguares May 04 Chiefs 17.00
2 Rebels vs. Crusaders May 04 Crusaders -20.40
3 Waratahs vs. Blues May 05 Waratahs 3.80
4 Hurricanes vs. Lions May 05 Hurricanes 10.50
5 Stormers vs. Bulls May 05 Stormers 3.20
6 Sharks vs. Highlanders May 05 Highlanders -7.60

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.61 16.73 -2.10
Dragons 5.12 -0.45 5.60
Panthers 4.33 2.64 1.70
Broncos 1.24 4.78 -3.50
Sharks 0.70 2.20 -1.50
Wests Tigers 0.61 -3.63 4.20
Raiders 0.57 3.50 -2.90
Rabbitohs 0.07 -3.90 4.00
Roosters -0.10 0.13 -0.20
Cowboys -1.72 2.97 -4.70
Eels -2.33 1.51 -3.80
Warriors -2.86 -6.97 4.10
Bulldogs -2.95 -3.43 0.50
Sea Eagles -5.50 -1.07 -4.40
Knights -6.04 -8.43 2.40
Titans -8.06 -8.91 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 24 – 8 7.00 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 50 – 10 19.00 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Apr 26 20 – 24 2.80 FALSE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Apr 27 12 – 18 5.10 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Apr 27 22 – 14 10.70 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Sharks Apr 28 9 – 10 -6.50 TRUE
7 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 28 8 – 18 2.40 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 29 24 – 22 -0.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs May 03 Broncos 7.20
2 Knights vs. Rabbitohs May 04 Rabbitohs -3.10
3 Panthers vs. Cowboys May 04 Panthers 9.10
4 Raiders vs. Titans May 05 Raiders 11.60
5 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers May 05 Warriors 1.00
6 Sharks vs. Eels May 05 Sharks 6.00
7 Dragons vs. Storm May 06 Storm -6.50
8 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles May 06 Roosters 8.40

 

Aviva Premiership Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 12.08 7.47 4.60
Exeter Chiefs 10.26 7.99 2.30
Wasps 5.74 5.89 -0.20
Leicester Tigers 3.90 4.64 -0.70
Bath Rugby 0.96 1.23 -0.30
Sale Sharks 0.89 -1.73 2.60
Gloucester Rugby -0.73 0.21 -0.90
Newcastle Falcons -1.34 -3.33 2.00
Northampton Saints -1.90 1.53 -3.40
Harlequins -3.08 0.84 -3.90
Worcester Warriors -4.72 -4.37 -0.30
London Irish -6.62 -4.94 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 27 33 – 25 8.30 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Apr 28 34 – 19 12.00 TRUE
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Bath Rugby Apr 28 20 – 43 2.90 FALSE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Apr 28 44 – 13 -0.50 FALSE
5 London Irish vs. Saracens Apr 29 14 – 51 -14.20 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Apr 29 36 – 29 11.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath Rugby vs. London Irish May 05 Bath Rugby 10.60
2 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs May 05 Exeter Chiefs -10.30
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps May 05 Wasps -4.10
4 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors May 05 Northampton Saints 5.80
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 05 Leicester Tigers -0.00
6 Saracens vs. Gloucester Rugby May 05 Saracens 15.80

 

April 24, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.03 16.18 -0.10
Crusaders 14.50 15.23 -0.70
Highlanders 11.42 10.29 1.10
Lions 10.20 13.81 -3.60
Chiefs 9.89 9.29 0.60
Bulls -0.46 -4.79 4.30
Stormers -0.48 1.48 -2.00
Sharks -0.59 1.02 -1.60
Blues -1.13 -0.24 -0.90
Waratahs -2.18 -3.92 1.70
Brumbies -2.54 1.75 -4.30
Jaguares -3.95 -4.64 0.70
Rebels -9.71 -14.96 5.30
Reds -9.99 -9.47 -0.50
Sunwolves -18.43 -18.42 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 61 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Apr 20 16 – 34 -7.80 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Lions Apr 20 0 – 29 -5.60 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Sunwolves Apr 21 33 – 11 39.00 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Chiefs Apr 21 12 – 36 -14.80 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Rebels Apr 21 28 – 10 12.60 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Apr 21 24 – 17 2.90 TRUE
7 Brumbies vs. Jaguares Apr 22 20 – 25 6.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Sunwolves Apr 27 Hurricanes 38.50
2 Stormers vs. Rebels Apr 27 Stormers 13.20
3 Reds vs. Lions Apr 28 Lions -16.20
4 Blues vs. Jaguares Apr 28 Blues 6.80
5 Brumbies vs. Crusaders Apr 28 Crusaders -13.00
6 Bulls vs. Highlanders Apr 28 Highlanders -7.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.14 16.73 -3.60
Panthers 4.52 2.64 1.90
Dragons 4.48 -0.45 4.90
Sharks 1.08 2.20 -1.10
Wests Tigers 0.77 -3.63 4.40
Broncos 0.76 4.78 -4.00
Rabbitohs 0.54 -3.90 4.40
Roosters 0.53 0.13 0.40
Raiders -0.30 3.50 -3.80
Cowboys -0.85 2.97 -3.80
Warriors -1.39 -6.97 5.60
Eels -2.48 1.51 -4.00
Bulldogs -3.14 -3.43 0.30
Sea Eagles -4.72 -1.07 -3.70
Knights -6.82 -8.43 1.60
Titans -8.45 -8.91 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Apr 19 0 – 6 0.20 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Apr 20 20 – 12 -2.90 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Storm Apr 20 20 – 34 -8.60 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Apr 21 42 – 22 1.20 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Apr 21 20 – 22 12.60 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 21 26 – 14 10.40 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Apr 22 44 – 10 0.60 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 22 26 – 22 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 Dragons 7.00
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 19.00
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Apr 26 Rabbitohs 2.80
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Apr 27 Sea Eagles 5.10
5 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Apr 27 Panthers 10.70
6 Titans vs. Sharks Apr 28 Sharks -6.50
7 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 28 Cowboys 2.40
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 29 Wests Tigers -0.30

 

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April 17, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.03 16.18 -0.10
Crusaders 15.52 15.23 0.30
Highlanders 10.81 10.29 0.50
Chiefs 9.33 9.29 0.00
Lions 8.80 13.81 -5.00
Stormers -0.23 1.48 -1.70
Blues -0.52 -0.24 -0.30
Waratahs -0.78 -3.92 3.10
Bulls -0.79 -4.79 4.00
Sharks -0.84 1.02 -1.90
Brumbies -1.83 1.75 -3.60
Jaguares -4.66 -4.64 -0.00
Rebels -9.38 -14.96 5.60
Reds -9.43 -9.47 0.00
Sunwolves -19.45 -18.42 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 13 25 – 13 10.00 TRUE
2 Sunwolves vs. Blues Apr 14 10 – 24 -15.00 TRUE
3 Rebels vs. Jaguares Apr 14 22 – 25 -0.40 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 14 43 – 17 15.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Apr 14 37 – 16 10.90 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Apr 14 10 – 40 8.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Apr 20 Highlanders -7.80
2 Waratahs vs. Lions Apr 20 Lions -5.60
3 Crusaders vs. Sunwolves Apr 21 Crusaders 39.00
4 Reds vs. Chiefs Apr 21 Chiefs -14.80
5 Bulls vs. Rebels Apr 21 Bulls 12.60
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Apr 21 Sharks 2.90
7 Brumbies vs. Jaguares Apr 22 Brumbies 6.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.77 16.73 -4.00
Dragons 5.25 -0.45 5.70
Panthers 4.88 2.64 2.20
Wests Tigers 1.80 -3.63 5.40
Broncos 1.14 4.78 -3.60
Raiders 1.02 3.50 -2.50
Sharks 0.72 2.20 -1.50
Roosters 0.10 0.13 -0.00
Rabbitohs -0.77 -3.90 3.10
Cowboys -0.97 2.97 -3.90
Warriors -2.15 -6.97 4.80
Sea Eagles -2.38 -1.07 -1.30
Bulldogs -2.71 -3.43 0.70
Eels -4.83 1.51 -6.30
Knights -7.84 -8.43 0.60
Titans -8.34 -8.91 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Apr 12 14 – 26 6.50 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Knights Apr 13 40 – 14 23.20 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Sharks Apr 13 40 – 20 5.50 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Broncos Apr 14 18 – 27 2.90 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Apr 14 10 – 27 8.30 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 14 18 – 2 7.70 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Titans Apr 15 35 – 12 15.10 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Apr 15 12 – 38 2.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Apr 19 Bulldogs 0.20
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Apr 20 Dragons -2.90
3 Broncos vs. Storm Apr 20 Storm -8.60
4 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Apr 21 Rabbitohs 1.20
5 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Apr 21 Wests Tigers 12.60
6 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 21 Cowboys 10.40
7 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Apr 22 Eels 0.60
8 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 22 Panthers -1.20

 

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