Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

July 31, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.39 16.73 -5.30
Roosters 6.55 0.13 6.40
Sharks 3.95 2.20 1.70
Broncos 3.07 4.78 -1.70
Rabbitohs 2.94 -3.90 6.80
Raiders 2.11 3.50 -1.40
Dragons 2.00 -0.45 2.40
Panthers 0.80 2.64 -1.80
Warriors -2.79 -6.97 4.20
Wests Tigers -3.23 -3.63 0.40
Cowboys -3.32 2.97 -6.30
Bulldogs -3.50 -3.43 -0.10
Titans -4.66 -8.91 4.30
Eels -4.88 1.51 -6.40
Sea Eagles -4.91 -1.07 -3.80
Knights -7.82 -8.43 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 26 12 – 10 2.10 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Knights Jul 27 20 – 18 8.40 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 27 16 – 4 1.20 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Jul 28 24 – 28 -2.50 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Jul 28 26 – 20 11.60 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Raiders Jul 28 44 – 10 8.70 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Warriors Jul 29 36 – 12 -0.80 FALSE
8 Roosters vs. Dragons Jul 29 36 – 18 5.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Aug 02 Broncos -3.60
2 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Aug 03 Wests Tigers -1.60
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Aug 03 Storm -5.40
4 Dragons vs. Warriors Aug 04 Dragons 9.30
5 Eels vs. Titans Aug 04 Eels 2.80
6 Roosters vs. Cowboys Aug 04 Roosters 12.90
7 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Aug 05 Sharks 11.90
8 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 05 Panthers 1.70

 

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July 23, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.65 15.23 2.40
Hurricanes 10.74 16.18 -5.40
Chiefs 9.12 9.29 -0.20
Lions 8.78 13.81 -5.00
Highlanders 4.58 10.29 -5.70
Waratahs 2.34 -3.92 6.30
Sharks 0.58 1.02 -0.40
Brumbies -0.06 1.75 -1.80
Jaguares -0.22 -4.64 4.40
Stormers -0.33 1.48 -1.80
Blues -3.20 -0.24 -3.00
Bulls -3.81 -4.79 1.00
Rebels -7.97 -14.96 7.00
Reds -8.63 -9.47 0.80
Sunwolves -16.98 -18.42 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jul 20 32 – 31 5.70 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Sharks Jul 21 40 – 10 19.80 TRUE
3 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Jul 21 30 – 23 1.00 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Jaguares Jul 21 40 – 23 12.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jul 28 Crusaders 10.40
2 Lions vs. Waratahs Jul 29 Lions 10.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 20

By

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.62 16.73 -7.10
Roosters 5.70 0.13 5.60
Sharks 3.94 2.20 1.70
Raiders 3.88 3.50 0.40
Rabbitohs 3.33 -3.90 7.20
Broncos 3.08 4.78 -1.70
Dragons 2.85 -0.45 3.30
Panthers 0.69 2.64 -1.90
Warriors -1.05 -6.97 5.90
Wests Tigers -2.47 -3.63 1.20
Cowboys -2.88 2.97 -5.80
Bulldogs -4.26 -3.43 -0.80
Sea Eagles -4.80 -1.07 -3.70
Eels -5.28 1.51 -6.80
Titans -6.40 -8.91 2.50
Knights -8.27 -8.43 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jul 19 14 – 8 1.30 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Raiders Jul 20 28 – 24 2.90 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Panthers Jul 20 50 – 18 1.10 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Titans Jul 21 30 – 24 0.30 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 21 22 – 6 -5.90 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Dragons Jul 21 10 – 24 -0.90 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 22 6 – 12 -6.20 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jul 22 24 – 56 -3.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 26 Broncos 2.10
2 Cowboys vs. Knights Jul 27 Cowboys 8.40
3 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 27 Bulldogs 1.20
4 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Jul 28 Panthers -2.50
5 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Jul 28 Rabbitohs 11.60
6 Storm vs. Raiders Jul 28 Storm 8.70
7 Titans vs. Warriors Jul 29 Warriors -0.80
8 Roosters vs. Dragons Jul 29 Roosters 5.80

 

July 17, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for the Qualifiers

By

Team Ratings for the Qualifiers

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.04 15.23 1.80
Hurricanes 11.03 16.18 -5.10
Chiefs 8.84 9.29 -0.40
Lions 8.50 13.81 -5.30
Highlanders 4.94 10.29 -5.40
Waratahs 1.98 -3.92 5.90
Sharks 1.19 1.02 0.20
Jaguares 0.06 -4.64 4.70
Brumbies -0.06 1.75 -1.80
Stormers -0.33 1.48 -1.80
Blues -3.20 -0.24 -3.00
Bulls -3.81 -4.79 1.00
Rebels -7.97 -14.96 7.00
Reds -8.63 -9.47 0.80
Sunwolves -16.98 -18.42 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jul 13 28 – 24 0.90 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Sunwolves Jul 13 48 – 27 11.20 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Rebels Jul 14 43 – 37 18.40 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Blues Jul 14 54 – 17 21.90 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 14 31 – 40 7.50 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Bulls Jul 14 38 – 12 14.40 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Jaguares Jul 14 20 – 10 4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Qualifiers

Here are the predictions for the Qualifiers. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jul 20 Hurricanes 5.70
2 Crusaders vs. Sharks Jul 21 Crusaders 19.80
3 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Jul 21 Waratahs 1.00
4 Lions vs. Jaguares Jul 21 Lions 12.40

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.63 16.73 -7.10
Rabbitohs 4.86 -3.90 8.80
Raiders 3.96 3.50 0.50
Sharks 3.86 2.20 1.70
Roosters 3.70 0.13 3.60
Panthers 2.86 2.64 0.20
Dragons 1.94 -0.45 2.40
Broncos 0.92 4.78 -3.90
Warriors -1.07 -6.97 5.90
Cowboys -1.96 2.97 -4.90
Sea Eagles -2.81 -1.07 -1.70
Bulldogs -3.93 -3.43 -0.50
Wests Tigers -4.00 -3.63 -0.40
Eels -5.60 1.51 -7.10
Titans -6.01 -8.91 2.90
Knights -8.66 -8.43 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 13 12 – 24 4.30 FALSE
2 Knights vs. Eels Jul 13 18 – 16 -0.40 FALSE
3 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Jul 14 6 – 24 -3.80 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Jul 14 13 – 14 -10.80 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 14 38 – 12 6.10 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Warriors Jul 15 6 – 26 10.80 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 15 16 – 20 11.00 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Roosters Jul 15 12 – 20 -6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jul 19 Eels 1.30
2 Sharks vs. Raiders Jul 20 Sharks 2.90
3 Broncos vs. Panthers Jul 20 Broncos 1.10
4 Knights vs. Titans Jul 21 Knights 0.30
5 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 21 Rabbitohs -5.90
6 Cowboys vs. Dragons Jul 21 Dragons -0.90
7 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 22 Storm -6.20
8 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jul 22 Roosters -3.50

 

July 11, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.14 15.23 0.90
Hurricanes 11.21 16.18 -5.00
Chiefs 8.65 9.29 -0.60
Lions 7.81 13.81 -6.00
Highlanders 5.68 10.29 -4.60
Waratahs 2.97 -3.92 6.90
Sharks 0.86 1.02 -0.20
Jaguares 0.39 -4.64 5.00
Stormers -0.33 1.48 -1.80
Brumbies -1.05 1.75 -2.80
Blues -2.29 -0.24 -2.10
Bulls -3.12 -4.79 1.70
Rebels -8.72 -14.96 6.20
Reds -9.22 -9.47 0.30
Sunwolves -16.39 -18.42 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jul 06 45 – 22 12.70 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Rebels Jul 06 37 – 23 1.50 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jul 07 24 – 19 14.90 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jul 07 42 – 24 16.90 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Sunwolves Jul 07 77 – 25 19.50 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Jaguares Jul 07 43 – 34 -0.70 FALSE
7 Stormers vs. Sharks Jul 07 27 – 16 1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jul 13 Chiefs 0.90
2 Reds vs. Sunwolves Jul 13 Reds 11.20
3 Highlanders vs. Rebels Jul 14 Highlanders 18.40
4 Crusaders vs. Blues Jul 14 Crusaders 21.90
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 14 Waratahs 7.50
6 Lions vs. Bulls Jul 14 Lions 14.40
7 Sharks vs. Jaguares Jul 14 Sharks 4.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.32 16.73 -6.40
Panthers 4.00 2.64 1.40
Rabbitohs 3.87 -3.90 7.80
Roosters 3.60 0.13 3.50
Broncos 3.08 4.78 -1.70
Dragons 2.99 -0.45 3.40
Sharks 2.72 2.20 0.50
Raiders 2.56 3.50 -0.90
Cowboys -0.57 2.97 -3.50
Bulldogs -2.94 -3.43 0.50
Warriors -3.22 -6.97 3.80
Sea Eagles -3.50 -1.07 -2.40
Wests Tigers -5.06 -3.63 -1.40
Eels -5.43 1.51 -6.90
Titans -5.90 -8.91 3.00
Knights -8.83 -8.43 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Dragons Jul 05 52 – 30 8.40 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Jul 06 36 – 4 8.40 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Jul 07 28 – 32 -2.30 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Broncos Jul 08 0 – 34 -1.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 13 Panthers 4.30
2 Knights vs. Eels Jul 13 Eels -0.40
3 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Jul 14 Rabbitohs -3.80
4 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Jul 14 Storm -10.80
5 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 14 Raiders 6.10
6 Broncos vs. Warriors Jul 15 Broncos 10.80
7 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 15 Dragons 11.00
8 Titans vs. Roosters Jul 15 Roosters -6.50

 

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July 3, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.52 15.23 0.30
Hurricanes 11.14 16.18 -5.00
Chiefs 9.25 9.29 -0.00
Lions 7.81 13.81 -6.00
Highlanders 6.30 10.29 -4.00
Sharks 1.45 1.02 0.40
Waratahs 1.02 -3.92 4.90
Jaguares 0.97 -4.64 5.60
Stormers -0.93 1.48 -2.40
Brumbies -1.64 1.75 -3.40
Blues -2.23 -0.24 -2.00
Bulls -3.70 -4.79 1.10
Rebels -7.97 -14.96 7.00
Reds -9.97 -9.47 -0.50
Sunwolves -14.44 -18.42 4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 106 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Reds Jun 29 39 – 16 10.20 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Jun 29 26 – 31 -5.60 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 30 22 – 45 3.80 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 30 24 – 12 -11.60 FALSE
5 Sunwolves vs. Bulls Jun 30 42 – 37 -8.30 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Lions Jun 30 31 – 24 -4.20 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Stormers Jun 30 25 – 14 5.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jul 06 Crusaders 12.70
2 Reds vs. Rebels Jul 06 Reds 1.50
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jul 07 Chiefs 14.90
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jul 07 Hurricanes 16.90
5 Waratahs vs. Sunwolves Jul 07 Waratahs 19.50
6 Bulls vs. Jaguares Jul 07 Jaguares -0.70
7 Stormers vs. Sharks Jul 07 Stormers 1.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.37 16.73 -7.40
Dragons 3.94 -0.45 4.40
Rabbitohs 3.87 -3.90 7.80
Roosters 3.60 0.13 3.50
Sharks 2.72 2.20 0.50
Raiders 2.44 3.50 -1.10
Panthers 2.35 2.64 -0.30
Broncos 0.79 4.78 -4.00
Cowboys -0.57 2.97 -3.50
Warriors -1.57 -6.97 5.40
Bulldogs -2.82 -3.43 0.60
Sea Eagles -3.50 -1.07 -2.40
Titans -3.62 -8.91 5.30
Wests Tigers -5.06 -3.63 -1.40
Eels -5.43 1.51 -6.90
Knights -8.83 -8.43 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Eels Jun 28 20 – 18 14.10 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Sharks Jun 29 15 – 18 0.70 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 29 8 – 9 -3.10 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Jun 30 10 – 18 11.60 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jun 30 16 – 36 -0.20 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Raiders Jun 30 26 – 22 0.90 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jul 01 12 – 30 4.70 FALSE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 01 21 – 20 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Dragons Jul 05 Storm 8.40
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Jul 06 Panthers 8.40
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Jul 07 Raiders -2.30
4 Titans vs. Broncos Jul 08 Broncos -1.40

 

June 19, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.51 16.73 -7.20
Dragons 4.78 -0.45 5.20
Rabbitohs 4.39 -3.90 8.30
Panthers 3.72 2.64 1.10
Roosters 3.46 0.13 3.30
Raiders 2.66 3.50 -0.80
Sharks 2.46 2.20 0.30
Broncos 0.58 4.78 -4.20
Cowboys -1.09 2.97 -4.10
Warriors -1.31 -6.97 5.70
Wests Tigers -3.46 -3.63 0.20
Bulldogs -4.20 -3.43 -0.80
Sea Eagles -4.87 -1.07 -3.80
Titans -5.21 -8.91 3.70
Eels -6.28 1.51 -7.80
Knights -7.45 -8.43 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 116 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jun 14 24 – 42 -6.00 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Warriors Jun 15 16 – 23 6.60 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Panthers Jun 15 32 – 6 -1.10 FALSE
4 Bulldogs vs. Titans Jun 16 10 – 32 8.20 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jun 16 32 – 8 10.80 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Broncos Jun 16 16 – 20 6.30 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Storm Jun 17 10 – 28 -13.30 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 17 12 – 48 2.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Eels Jun 28 Dragons 14.10
2 Warriors vs. Sharks Jun 29 Warriors 0.70
3 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 29 Storm -3.10
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Jun 30 Panthers 11.60
5 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jun 30 Bulldogs -0.20
6 Broncos vs. Raiders Jun 30 Broncos 0.90
7 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jul 01 Wests Tigers 4.70
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 01 Rabbitohs 8.50

 

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