Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

April 17, 2018

Aviva Premiership Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.35 7.47 3.90
Exeter Chiefs 10.08 7.99 2.10
Wasps 5.98 5.89 0.10
Leicester Tigers 3.92 4.64 -0.70
Sale Sharks 1.07 -1.73 2.80
Bath Rugby 0.15 1.23 -1.10
Gloucester Rugby 0.08 0.21 -0.10
Newcastle Falcons -1.36 -3.33 2.00
Harlequins -2.13 0.84 -3.00
Northampton Saints -2.15 1.53 -3.70
Worcester Warriors -5.67 -4.37 -1.30
London Irish -5.89 -4.94 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Apr 13 35 – 30 -0.00 FALSE
2 Gloucester Rugby vs. Harlequins Apr 14 37 – 9 3.70 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Apr 14 21 – 27 10.20 FALSE
4 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 14 30 – 15 14.60 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 15 5 – 45 -11.20 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Bath Rugby Apr 15 41 – 6 12.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 27 Leicester Tigers 8.30
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Apr 28 Exeter Chiefs 12.00
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Bath Rugby Apr 28 Gloucester Rugby 2.90
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Apr 28 Harlequins -0.50
5 London Irish vs. Saracens Apr 29 Saracens -14.20
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Apr 29 Wasps 11.10

 

April 11, 2018

Aviva Premiership Predictions for Round 20

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I have been meaning to add some additional competitions to my predictions. I have now implemented predictions for the Aviva Premiership, starting a bit late in the season, with only a few rounds to go.

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.63 7.47 3.20
Exeter Chiefs 9.19 7.99 1.20
Wasps 5.96 5.89 0.10
Leicester Tigers 4.48 4.64 -0.20
Sale Sharks 1.37 -1.73 3.10
Bath Rugby 0.86 1.23 -0.40
Gloucester Rugby -0.69 0.21 -0.90
Harlequins -1.36 0.84 -2.20
Newcastle Falcons -1.66 -3.33 1.70
Northampton Saints -2.70 1.53 -4.20
London Irish -5.00 -4.94 -0.10
Worcester Warriors -5.65 -4.37 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Apr 07 28 – 27 -1.90 FALSE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Apr 08 13 – 63 -7.90 TRUE
3 Bath Rugby vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 07 19 – 34 -2.70 TRUE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 08 27 – 13 -2.10 FALSE
5 Harlequins vs. London Irish Apr 08 5 – 35 8.90 FALSE
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Rugby Apr 09 46 – 10 11.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Apr 13 Sale Sharks -0.00
2 Gloucester Rugby vs. Harlequins Apr 14 Gloucester Rugby 3.70
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Apr 14 Leicester Tigers 10.20
4 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 14 Wasps 14.60
5 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 15 Exeter Chiefs -11.20
6 Saracens vs. Bath Rugby Apr 15 Saracens 12.80

 

April 10, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 15.91 16.18 -0.30
Crusaders 15.52 15.23 0.30
Highlanders 10.17 10.29 -0.10
Chiefs 9.45 9.29 0.20
Lions 8.80 13.81 -5.00
Sharks 1.44 1.02 0.40
Stormers -0.23 1.48 -1.70
Blues -0.46 -0.24 -0.20
Brumbies -1.19 1.75 -2.90
Waratahs -1.38 -3.92 2.50
Bulls -3.07 -4.79 1.70
Jaguares -4.82 -4.64 -0.20
Reds -8.83 -9.47 0.60
Rebels -9.23 -14.96 5.70
Sunwolves -19.51 -18.42 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Apr 06 38 – 37 20.80 TRUE
2 Sunwolves vs. Waratahs Apr 07 29 – 50 -13.20 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 07 21 – 19 15.00 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Reds Apr 07 45 – 21 9.40 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Stormers Apr 07 52 – 31 11.40 TRUE
6 Jaguares vs. Crusaders Apr 07 14 – 40 -15.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 13 Hurricanes 10.00
2 Sunwolves vs. Blues Apr 14 Blues -15.00
3 Rebels vs. Jaguares Apr 14 Jaguares -0.40
4 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 14 Highlanders 15.40
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Apr 14 Waratahs 10.90
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Apr 14 Sharks 8.00

 

NRL Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

  Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.57 16.73 -4.20
Panthers 4.33 2.64 1.70
Dragons 4.23 -0.45 4.70
Sharks 1.74 2.20 -0.50
Roosters 1.39 0.13 1.30
Cowboys 0.80 2.97 -2.20
Raiders 0.43 3.50 -3.10
Broncos 0.31 4.78 -4.50
Wests Tigers -0.22 -3.63 3.40
Sea Eagles -0.36 -1.07 0.70
Warriors -1.32 -6.97 5.70
Rabbitohs -2.07 -3.90 1.80
Eels -4.24 1.51 -5.80
Bulldogs -4.48 -3.43 -1.10
Knights -7.65 -8.43 0.80
Titans -7.78 -8.91 1.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

  Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Apr 05 26 – 10 6.60 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 06 10 – 28 6.80 FALSE
3 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Apr 06 16 – 12 10.20 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Apr 07 11 – 10 -15.00 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 07 22 – 12 1.10 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Broncos Apr 07 15 – 10 -6.60 FALSE
7 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Apr 08 32 – 20 -7.10 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Panthers Apr 08 6 – 12 -5.50 TRUE

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

  Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Apr 12 Roosters 6.50
2 Storm vs. Knights Apr 13 Storm 23.20
3 Dragons vs. Sharks Apr 13 Dragons 5.50
4 Warriors vs. Broncos Apr 14 Warriors 2.90
5 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Apr 14 Cowboys 8.30
6 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 14 Raiders 7.70
7 Panthers vs. Titans Apr 15 Panthers 15.10
8 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Apr 15 Sea Eagles 2.90

 

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April 3, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.10 16.18 0.90
Crusaders 14.86 15.23 -0.40
Chiefs 10.23 9.29 0.90
Highlanders 10.17 10.29 -0.10
Lions 8.22 13.81 -5.60
Stormers 0.35 1.48 -1.10
Sharks 0.25 1.02 -0.80
Blues -1.24 -0.24 -1.00
Waratahs -1.85 -3.92 2.10
Brumbies -2.06 1.75 -3.80
Bulls -3.07 -4.79 1.70
Jaguares -4.16 -4.64 0.50
Reds -7.95 -9.47 1.50
Rebels -9.23 -14.96 5.70
Sunwolves -19.04 -18.42 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 30 27 – 22 3.40 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes Mar 30 19 – 50 -21.10 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Sharks Mar 31 40 – 63 6.00 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 31 17 – 24 4.70 FALSE
5 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 31 33 – 23 -1.30 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Crusaders Apr 01 8 – 14 -2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Apr 06 Hurricanes 20.80
2 Sunwolves vs. Waratahs Apr 07 Waratahs -13.20
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 07 Chiefs 15.00
4 Brumbies vs. Reds Apr 07 Brumbies 9.40
5 Lions vs. Stormers Apr 07 Lions 11.40
6 Jaguares vs. Crusaders Apr 07 Crusaders -15.00

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.70 16.73 -3.00
Dragons 4.66 -0.45 5.10
Panthers 4.29 2.64 1.70
Sharks 3.48 2.20 1.30
Cowboys 1.42 2.97 -1.50
Broncos 1.12 4.78 -3.70
Sea Eagles 0.98 -1.07 2.00
Raiders -0.23 3.50 -3.70
Roosters -0.35 0.13 -0.50
Wests Tigers -1.35 -3.63 2.30
Warriors -1.94 -6.97 5.00
Rabbitohs -2.50 -3.90 1.40
Bulldogs -3.82 -3.43 -0.40
Eels -4.21 1.51 -5.70
Knights -8.46 -8.43 -0.00
Titans -9.12 -8.91 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Panthers Mar 29 14 – 33 3.20 FALSE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Mar 30 20 – 16 4.40 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Storm Mar 30 14 – 4 -10.00 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Warriors Mar 31 6 – 30 11.00 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Mar 31 32 – 16 2.30 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Knights Apr 01 30 – 12 15.80 TRUE
7 Broncos vs. Titans Apr 01 14 – 26 17.30 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 02 30 – 20 5.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Apr 05 Raiders 6.60
2 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 06 Sharks 6.80
3 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Apr 06 Dragons 10.20
4 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Apr 07 Storm -15.00
5 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 07 Warriors 1.10
6 Knights vs. Broncos Apr 07 Broncos -6.60
7 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Apr 08 Sea Eagles -7.10
8 Eels vs. Panthers Apr 08 Panthers -5.50

 

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March 27, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.51 16.18 0.30
Crusaders 14.63 15.23 -0.60
Highlanders 10.27 10.29 -0.00
Chiefs 10.13 9.29 0.80
Lions 8.45 13.81 -5.40
Stormers 1.02 1.48 -0.50
Blues 0.50 -0.24 0.70
Brumbies -1.36 1.75 -3.10
Sharks -1.49 1.02 -2.50
Waratahs -2.55 -3.92 1.40
Bulls -3.74 -4.79 1.10
Jaguares -4.16 -4.64 0.50
Reds -7.95 -9.47 1.50
Rebels -8.64 -14.96 6.30
Sunwolves -19.04 -18.42 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Bulls Mar 23 33 – 14 22.80 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Sharks Mar 23 46 – 14 -7.90 FALSE
3 Sunwolves vs. Chiefs Mar 24 10 – 61 -21.70 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 24 29 – 12 8.80 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Reds Mar 24 25 – 19 13.90 TRUE
6 Jaguares vs. Lions Mar 24 49 – 35 -11.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 30 Chiefs 3.40
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes Mar 30 Hurricanes -21.10
3 Blues vs. Sharks Mar 31 Blues 6.00
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 31 Brumbies 4.70
5 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 31 Stormers -1.30
6 Lions vs. Crusaders Apr 01 Crusaders -2.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.10 16.73 -1.60
Dragons 4.51 -0.45 5.00
Broncos 3.17 4.78 -1.60
Cowboys 2.98 2.97 0.00
Panthers 2.73 2.64 0.10
Roosters 2.10 0.13 2.00
Sharks 2.08 2.20 -0.10
Raiders 0.73 3.50 -2.80
Sea Eagles 0.02 -1.07 1.10
Wests Tigers -1.68 -3.63 2.00
Rabbitohs -2.47 -3.90 1.40
Bulldogs -3.84 -3.43 -0.40
Eels -3.87 1.51 -5.40
Warriors -4.39 -6.97 2.60
Knights -8.30 -8.43 0.10
Titans -11.17 -8.91 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Cowboys Mar 22 30 – 14 15.00 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Mar 23 20 – 18 -4.50 FALSE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Mar 23 7 – 9 -1.80 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 24 19 – 20 11.40 FALSE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Mar 24 34 – 6 -4.00 FALSE
6 Eels vs. Sharks Mar 24 4 – 14 -1.80 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Dragons Mar 25 8 – 54 -7.30 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Knights Mar 25 38 – 8 10.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Panthers Mar 29 Cowboys 3.20
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Mar 30 Rabbitohs 4.40
3 Sharks vs. Storm Mar 30 Storm -10.00
4 Roosters vs. Warriors Mar 31 Roosters 11.00
5 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Mar 31 Sea Eagles 2.30
6 Dragons vs. Knights Apr 01 Dragons 15.80
7 Broncos vs. Titans Apr 01 Broncos 17.30
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 02 Wests Tigers 5.20

 

March 20, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.02 16.18 -0.20
Crusaders 14.86 15.23 -0.40
Highlanders 10.76 10.29 0.50
Lions 9.99 13.81 -3.80
Chiefs 8.37 9.29 -0.90
Stormers 1.50 1.48 0.00
Sharks 0.91 1.02 -0.10
Blues 0.50 -0.24 0.70
Brumbies -1.36 1.75 -3.10
Waratahs -2.55 -3.92 1.40
Bulls -3.98 -4.79 0.80
Jaguares -5.70 -4.64 -1.10
Reds -8.43 -9.47 1.00
Rebels -11.03 -14.96 3.90
Sunwolves -17.28 -18.42 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Bulls Mar 16 41 – 28 16.80 TRUE
2 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 17 25 – 17 -1.80 FALSE
3 Brumbies vs. Sharks Mar 17 24 – 17 1.00 TRUE
4 Stormers vs. Blues Mar 17 37 – 20 3.40 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Sunwolves Mar 17 40 – 38 35.30 TRUE
6 Jaguares vs. Reds Mar 17 7 – 18 9.10 FALSE
7 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 18 51 – 27 10.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Bulls Mar 23 Crusaders 22.80
2 Rebels vs. Sharks Mar 23 Sharks -7.90
3 Sunwolves vs. Chiefs Mar 24 Chiefs -21.70
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 24 Hurricanes 8.80
5 Stormers vs. Reds Mar 24 Stormers 13.90
6 Jaguares vs. Lions Mar 24 Lions -11.70

 

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NRL Predictions for Round

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.03 16.73 -1.70
Panthers 3.19 2.64 0.60
Broncos 3.16 4.78 -1.60
Cowboys 3.05 2.97 0.10
Sea Eagles 2.26 -1.07 3.30
Dragons 1.80 -0.45 2.20
Raiders 1.60 3.50 -1.90
Sharks 1.50 2.20 -0.70
Roosters 0.75 0.13 0.60
Wests Tigers -1.67 -3.63 2.00
Eels -3.30 1.51 -4.80
Bulldogs -4.30 -3.43 -0.90
Rabbitohs -4.71 -3.90 -0.80
Warriors -5.25 -6.97 1.70
Knights -6.95 -8.43 1.50
Titans -8.46 -8.91 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Dragons Mar 15 16 – 20 3.80 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Mar 16 30 – 12 6.40 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 16 24 – 20 3.00 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Titans Mar 17 20 – 8 7.00 TRUE
5 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Mar 17 18 – 14 12.00 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Mar 17 8 – 10 23.20 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 18 54 – 0 1.20 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Knights Mar 18 28 – 30 13.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Cowboys Mar 22 Storm 15.00
2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Mar 23 Panthers -4.50
3 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Mar 23 Broncos -1.80
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 24 Raiders 11.40
5 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Mar 24 Sea Eagles -4.00
6 Eels vs. Sharks Mar 24 Sharks -1.80
7 Titans vs. Dragons Mar 25 Dragons -7.30
8 Roosters vs. Knights Mar 25 Roosters 10.70

 

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