Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

March 13, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.02 16.18 -0.20
Crusaders 15.45 15.23 0.20
Lions 11.98 13.81 -1.80
Highlanders 10.18 10.29 -0.10
Chiefs 8.60 9.29 -0.70
Blues 1.32 -0.24 1.60
Sharks 1.27 1.02 0.30
Stormers 0.68 1.48 -0.80
Brumbies -1.72 1.75 -3.50
Waratahs -3.37 -3.92 0.50
Bulls -4.20 -4.79 0.60
Jaguares -4.49 -4.64 0.20
Reds -9.64 -9.47 -0.20
Rebels -10.21 -14.96 4.80
Sunwolves -19.27 -18.42 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Stormers Mar 09 33 – 15 12.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 09 33 – 10 -8.80 FALSE
3 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 10 29 – 19 3.30 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Bulls Mar 10 20 – 14 -2.40 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Sunwolves Mar 10 50 – 22 24.10 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Blues Mar 10 35 – 38 17.10 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Waratahs Mar 10 38 – 28 1.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Bulls Mar 16 Chiefs 16.80
2 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 17 Crusaders -1.80
3 Brumbies vs. Sharks Mar 17 Brumbies 1.00
4 Stormers vs. Blues Mar 17 Stormers 3.40
5 Lions vs. Sunwolves Mar 17 Lions 35.30
6 Jaguares vs. Reds Mar 17 Jaguares 9.10
7 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 18 Waratahs 10.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 16.79 16.73 0.10
Panthers 3.75 2.64 1.10
Cowboys 3.12 2.97 0.20
Broncos 3.09 4.78 -1.70
Raiders 2.70 3.50 -0.80
Sharks 2.05 2.20 -0.20
Dragons 1.25 -0.45 1.70
Eels 0.40 1.51 -1.10
Roosters -0.06 0.13 -0.20
Sea Eagles -1.44 -1.07 -0.40
Wests Tigers -3.44 -3.63 0.20
Bulldogs -3.49 -3.43 -0.10
Rabbitohs -5.27 -3.90 -1.40
Warriors -5.60 -6.97 1.40
Knights -8.05 -8.43 0.40
Titans -8.11 -8.91 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 37.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Broncos Mar 08 34 – 12 -2.20 FALSE
2 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Mar 09 19 – 18 -4.40 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 09 20 – 14 3.80 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Mar 10 10 – 8 -0.80 FALSE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Mar 10 20 – 32 7.60 FALSE
6 Bulldogs vs. Storm Mar 10 18 – 36 -17.20 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Eels Mar 11 24 – 4 4.10 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Raiders Mar 11 30 – 28 -9.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Dragons Mar 15 Sharks 3.80
2 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Mar 16 Roosters 6.40
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 16 Broncos 3.00
4 Warriors vs. Titans Mar 17 Warriors 7.00
5 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Mar 17 Panthers 12.00
6 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Mar 17 Storm 23.20
7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 18 Sea Eagles 1.20
8 Raiders vs. Knights Mar 18 Raiders 13.80

 

March 6, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.86 15.23 0.60
Hurricanes 15.61 16.18 -0.60
Lions 13.19 13.81 -0.60
Highlanders 9.87 10.29 -0.40
Chiefs 8.60 9.29 -0.70
Sharks 1.03 1.02 0.00
Stormers 0.99 1.48 -0.50
Brumbies 0.19 1.75 -1.60
Blues 0.11 -0.24 0.30
Waratahs -2.88 -3.92 1.00
Bulls -3.70 -4.79 1.10
Jaguares -4.98 -4.64 -0.30
Reds -10.14 -9.47 -0.70
Rebels -12.12 -14.96 2.80
Sunwolves -19.04 -18.42 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Chiefs Mar 02 21 – 27 -4.80 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 02 18 – 10 -8.90 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Stormers Mar 03 45 – 28 19.10 TRUE
4 Sunwolves vs. Rebels Mar 03 17 – 37 -0.60 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Waratahs Mar 03 24 – 24 9.00 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Lions Mar 03 35 – 49 -13.30 TRUE
7 Jaguares vs. Hurricanes Mar 03 9 – 34 -15.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Stormers Mar 09 Highlanders 12.90
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 09 Brumbies -8.80
3 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 10 Hurricanes 3.30
4 Reds vs. Bulls Mar 10 Bulls -2.40
5 Sharks vs. Sunwolves Mar 10 Sharks 24.10
6 Lions vs. Blues Mar 10 Lions 17.10
7 Jaguares vs. Waratahs Mar 10 Jaguares 1.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 16.73 16.73 -0.00
Broncos 4.78 4.78 -0.00
Raiders 3.50 3.50 -0.00
Cowboys 2.97 2.97 0.00
Panthers 2.64 2.64 0.00
Sharks 2.20 2.20 -0.00
Eels 1.51 1.51 -0.00
Roosters 0.13 0.13 -0.00
Dragons -0.45 -0.45 -0.00
Sea Eagles -1.07 -1.07 -0.00
Bulldogs -3.43 -3.43 -0.00
Wests Tigers -3.63 -3.63 0.00
Rabbitohs -3.90 -3.90 -0.00
Warriors -6.97 -6.97 0.00
Knights -8.43 -8.43 0.00
Titans -8.91 -8.91 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Broncos Mar 08 Broncos -2.20
2 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Mar 09 Sea Eagles -4.40
3 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 09 Cowboys 3.80
4 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Mar 10 Roosters -0.80
5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Mar 10 Rabbitohs 7.60
6 Bulldogs vs. Storm Mar 10 Storm -17.20
7 Panthers vs. Eels Mar 11 Panthers 4.10
8 Titans vs. Raiders Mar 11 Raiders -9.40

 

February 27, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.98 15.23 0.80
Hurricanes 15.04 16.18 -1.10
Lions 13.15 13.81 -0.70
Highlanders 9.87 10.29 -0.40
Chiefs 8.53 9.29 -0.80
Sharks 1.57 1.02 0.60
Brumbies 1.20 1.75 -0.50
Stormers 0.86 1.48 -0.60
Blues 0.18 -0.24 0.40
Waratahs -3.42 -3.92 0.50
Bulls -3.65 -4.79 1.10
Jaguares -4.41 -4.64 0.20
Reds -11.15 -9.47 -1.70
Rebels -13.29 -14.96 1.70
Sunwolves -17.87 -18.42 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 23 41 – 34 14.00 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Feb 23 45 – 19 -2.00 FALSE
3 Sunwolves vs. Brumbies Feb 24 25 – 32 -16.20 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Feb 24 45 – 23 9.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Stormers Feb 24 34 – 27 -1.30 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Jaguares Feb 24 47 – 27 21.80 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Hurricanes Feb 24 21 – 19 -17.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Chiefs Mar 02 Chiefs -4.80
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 02 Brumbies -8.90
3 Crusaders vs. Stormers Mar 03 Crusaders 19.10
4 Sunwolves vs. Rebels Mar 03 Rebels -0.60
5 Sharks vs. Waratahs Mar 03 Sharks 9.00
6 Bulls vs. Lions Mar 03 Lions -13.30
7 Jaguares vs. Hurricanes Mar 03 Hurricanes -15.40

 

February 20, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.18 16.18 0.00
Crusaders 15.23 15.23 0.00
Lions 13.25 13.81 -0.60
Highlanders 10.29 10.29 -0.00
Chiefs 9.29 9.29 0.00
Brumbies 1.75 1.75 0.00
Sharks 1.57 1.02 0.60
Stormers 1.36 1.48 -0.10
Blues -0.24 -0.24 -0.00
Waratahs -3.92 -3.92 -0.00
Jaguares -4.51 -4.64 0.10
Bulls -4.79 -4.79 0.00
Reds -9.47 -9.47 0.00
Rebels -14.96 -14.96 0.00
Sunwolves -18.42 -18.42 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Jaguares Feb 17 28 – 20 10.10 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Sharks Feb 17 26 – 19 16.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 23 Highlanders 14.00
2 Rebels vs. Reds Feb 23 Reds -2.00
3 Sunwolves vs. Brumbies Feb 24 Brumbies -16.20
4 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Feb 24 Crusaders 9.40
5 Waratahs vs. Stormers Feb 24 Stormers -1.30
6 Lions vs. Jaguares Feb 24 Lions 21.80
7 Bulls vs. Hurricanes Feb 24 Hurricanes -17.00

 

February 13, 2018

Super 15 Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.18 16.18 0.00
Crusaders 15.23 15.23 0.00
Lions 13.81 13.81 0.00
Highlanders 10.29 10.29 -0.00
Chiefs 9.29 9.29 0.00
Brumbies 1.75 1.75 0.00
Stormers 1.48 1.48 -0.00
Sharks 1.02 1.02 0.00
Blues -0.24 -0.24 -0.00
Waratahs -3.92 -3.92 -0.00
Jaguares -4.64 -4.64 0.00
Bulls -4.79 -4.79 0.00
Reds -9.47 -9.47 0.00
Rebels -14.96 -14.96 0.00
Sunwolves -18.42 -18.42 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Jaguares Feb 17 Stormers 10.10
2 Lions vs. Sharks Feb 17 Lions 16.30

 

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October 25, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

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Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 15.35 14.78 0.60
Wellington 12.26 -1.62 13.90
Taranaki 6.90 7.04 -0.10
North Harbour 6.48 -1.27 7.80
Tasman 3.60 9.54 -5.90
Counties Manukau 2.02 5.70 -3.70
Otago 0.25 -0.34 0.60
Bay of Plenty -0.14 -3.98 3.80
Auckland -0.33 6.11 -6.40
Waikato -3.17 -0.26 -2.90
Northland -4.04 -12.37 8.30
Manawatu -4.54 -3.59 -1.00
Hawke’s Bay -13.26 -5.85 -7.40
Southland -23.99 -16.50 -7.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Northland Oct 20 49 – 21 18.60 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Oct 21 48 – 32 0.90 TRUE
3 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Oct 21 35 – 24 13.30 TRUE
4 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 21 29 – 30 9.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 27 Wellington 16.40
2 Canterbury vs. Tasman Oct 28 Canterbury 15.80

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

By

Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 4.33 4.33 -0.00
Sharks 4.06 2.15 1.90
Western Province 4.02 3.30 0.70
Lions 3.45 7.41 -4.00
Blue Bulls 0.48 2.32 -1.80
Pumas -8.75 -10.63 1.90
Griquas -10.19 -11.62 1.40
Cheetahs2 -30.14 -30.00 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Oct 21 37 – 27 7.70 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Lions Oct 21 19 – 5 4.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Western Province Oct 28 Sharks 4.50

 

October 17, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 15.56 14.78 0.80
Wellington 11.41 -1.62 13.00
Taranaki 7.81 7.04 0.80
North Harbour 6.27 -1.27 7.50
Tasman 2.69 9.54 -6.90
Counties Manukau 2.02 5.70 -3.70
Otago 1.61 -0.34 2.00
Auckland -0.33 6.11 -6.40
Bay of Plenty -1.50 -3.98 2.50
Waikato -3.17 -0.26 -2.90
Northland -3.19 -12.37 9.20
Manawatu -4.54 -3.59 -1.00
Hawke’s Bay -13.26 -5.85 -7.40
Southland -23.99 -16.50 -7.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Oct 11 46 – 25 17.90 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Northland Oct 12 36 – 18 18.70 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Canterbury Oct 13 27 – 32 -13.40 TRUE
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Oct 14 36 – 32 6.00 TRUE
5 Otago vs. Southland Oct 14 43 – 19 30.80 TRUE
6 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Oct 14 52 – 30 -0.80 FALSE
7 North Harbour vs. Taranaki Oct 15 64 – 33 -3.50 FALSE
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Oct 15 36 – 31 -7.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Northland Oct 20 Wellington 18.60
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Oct 21 Bay of Plenty 0.90
3 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Oct 21 Canterbury 13.30
4 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 21 Taranaki 9.10

 

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