Super 18 Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 17.39 | 13.22 | 4.20 |
| Crusaders | 13.87 | 8.75 | 5.10 |
| Highlanders | 9.17 | 9.17 | 0.00 |
| Chiefs | 8.54 | 9.75 | -1.20 |
| Lions | 8.36 | 7.64 | 0.70 |
| Blues | 3.47 | -1.07 | 4.50 |
| Brumbies | 2.02 | 3.83 | -1.80 |
| Sharks | 1.40 | 0.42 | 1.00 |
| Stormers | 0.63 | 1.51 | -0.90 |
| Waratahs | -0.91 | 5.81 | -6.70 |
| Jaguares | -2.84 | -4.36 | 1.50 |
| Bulls | -4.48 | 0.29 | -4.80 |
| Force | -8.96 | -9.45 | 0.50 |
| Cheetahs | -9.47 | -7.36 | -2.10 |
| Reds | -10.60 | -10.28 | -0.30 |
| Kings | -13.37 | -19.02 | 5.70 |
| Rebels | -14.52 | -8.17 | -6.40 |
| Sunwolves | -16.80 | -17.76 | 1.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 87 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Stormers | May 05 | 41 – 22 | 21.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Cheetahs vs. Highlanders | May 05 | 41 – 45 | -16.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Rebels vs. Lions | May 06 | 10 – 47 | -16.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. Reds | May 06 | 46 – 17 | 22.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Waratahs vs. Blues | May 06 | 33 – 40 | 0.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Force | May 06 | 37 – 12 | 12.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bulls vs. Crusaders | May 06 | 24 – 62 | -11.10 | TRUE |
| 8 | Jaguares vs. Sunwolves | May 06 | 46 – 39 | 19.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Cheetahs | May 12 | Blues | 16.90 |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Lions | May 12 | Lions | -2.30 |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Hurricanes | May 13 | Hurricanes | -3.50 |
| 4 | Rebels vs. Reds | May 13 | Reds | -0.40 |
| 5 | Bulls vs. Highlanders | May 13 | Highlanders | -9.70 |
| 6 | Kings vs. Sharks | May 13 | Sharks | -11.30 |
| 7 | Jaguares vs. Force | May 13 | Jaguares | 10.10 |