NRL Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 9.40 | 8.49 | 0.90 |
| Raiders | 8.76 | 9.94 | -1.20 |
| Cowboys | 5.01 | 6.90 | -1.90 |
| Broncos | 4.95 | 4.36 | 0.60 |
| Sharks | 4.70 | 5.84 | -1.10 |
| Panthers | 4.61 | 6.08 | -1.50 |
| Roosters | 1.19 | -1.17 | 2.40 |
| Sea Eagles | 0.87 | -2.98 | 3.80 |
| Eels | -0.66 | -0.81 | 0.10 |
| Dragons | -1.85 | -7.74 | 5.90 |
| Bulldogs | -2.91 | -1.34 | -1.60 |
| Rabbitohs | -3.38 | -1.82 | -1.60 |
| Titans | -3.48 | -0.98 | -2.50 |
| Warriors | -7.44 | -6.02 | -1.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -8.02 | -3.89 | -4.10 |
| Knights | -13.81 | -16.94 | 3.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 40 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Broncos | Mar 30 | 10 – 7 | -5.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Roosters vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 31 | 12 – 18 | 5.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 31 | 20 – 6 | 11.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Knights | Apr 01 | 19 – 18 | 25.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Raiders vs. Eels | Apr 01 | 30 – 18 | 13.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Storm vs. Panthers | Apr 01 | 28 – 6 | 5.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Warriors vs. Titans | Apr 02 | 28 – 22 | -1.10 | FALSE |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Dragons | Apr 02 | 6 – 28 | 0.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Roosters | Apr 06 | Broncos | 7.30 |
| 2 | Knights vs. Bulldogs | Apr 07 | Bulldogs | -7.40 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 07 | Panthers | 11.50 |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Dragons | Apr 08 | Sea Eagles | 6.20 |
| 5 | Titans vs. Raiders | Apr 08 | Raiders | -8.70 |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 08 | Cowboys | 16.50 |
| 7 | Warriors vs. Eels | Apr 09 | Eels | -2.80 |
| 8 | Storm vs. Sharks | Apr 09 | Storm | 8.20 |