Posts filed under Sports statistics (1776)

September 14, 2016

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 10.57 9.69 0.90
Western Province 4.24 6.46 -2.20
Blue Bulls 2.78 1.80 1.00
Cheetahs 1.65 -3.42 5.10
Sharks 1.04 -0.60 1.60
Griquas -9.94 -12.45 2.50
Pumas -12.14 -8.62 -3.50
Cavaliers -13.34 -10.00 -3.30
Kings -16.30 -14.29 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Western Province Sep 09 58 – 32 7.80 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Cavaliers Sep 10 46 – 22 4.80 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Sep 10 30 – 38 4.40 FALSE
4 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Sep 10 14 – 41 -9.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Kings Sep 15 Sharks 20.80
2 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Sep 16 Blue Bulls 16.20
3 Lions vs. Cheetahs Sep 17 Lions 12.40
4 Western Province vs. Pumas Sep 17 Western Province 19.90

 

September 7, 2016

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Raiders 10.54 -0.55 11.10
Storm 9.17 4.41 4.80
Cowboys 8.95 10.29 -1.30
Panthers 5.73 -3.06 8.80
Broncos 4.60 9.81 -5.20
Sharks 3.91 -1.06 5.00
Roosters -0.08 11.20 -11.30
Bulldogs -0.32 1.50 -1.80
Titans -0.75 -8.39 7.60
Eels -0.82 -4.62 3.80
Rabbitohs -1.55 -1.20 -0.30
Sea Eagles -2.83 0.36 -3.20
Wests Tigers -4.05 -4.06 0.00
Warriors -6.26 -7.47 1.20
Dragons -7.44 -0.10 -7.30
Knights -17.13 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 123 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Sep 01 24 – 14 7.20 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Sep 02 10 – 28 7.70 FALSE
3 Dragons vs. Knights Sep 03 28 – 26 14.40 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Titans Sep 03 32 – 16 12.10 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Sharks Sep 03 26 – 6 6.30 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Eels Sep 04 18 – 40 1.80 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Sep 04 10 – 52 -6.90 TRUE
8 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Sep 04 36 – 6 8.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Titans Sep 09 Broncos 8.40
2 Raiders vs. Sharks Sep 10 Raiders 9.60
3 Storm vs. Cowboys Sep 10 Storm 3.20
4 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Sep 11 Panthers 6.10

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.55 12.85 3.70
Auckland 9.26 11.34 -2.10
Taranaki 9.09 8.25 0.80
Tasman 6.35 8.71 -2.40
Counties Manukau 3.78 2.45 1.30
Wellington 2.37 4.32 -2.00
Otago 1.95 0.54 1.40
Waikato -2.91 -4.31 1.40
Hawke’s Bay -3.34 1.85 -5.20
Bay of Plenty -4.67 -5.54 0.90
North Harbour -6.57 -8.15 1.60
Manawatu -7.40 -6.71 -0.70
Southland -12.61 -9.71 -2.90
Northland -15.36 -19.37 4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 86.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Northland Aug 31 33 – 28 26.40 TRUE
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 01 20 – 48 2.30 FALSE
3 Southland vs. Auckland Sep 02 16 – 51 -14.10 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Taranaki Sep 03 25 – 20 0.40 TRUE
5 Wellington vs. North Harbour Sep 03 21 – 17 14.90 TRUE
6 Northland vs. Canterbury Sep 03 34 – 52 -32.00 TRUE
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Sep 04 32 – 33 -4.90 TRUE
8 Waikato vs. Manawatu Sep 04 19 – 10 8.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Auckland Sep 07 Auckland -8.60
2 Taranaki vs. Southland Sep 08 Taranaki 25.70
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Sep 09 Bay of Plenty 14.70
4 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Sep 09 Counties Manukau 5.40
5 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Sep 10 North Harbour 4.80
6 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 10 Tasman -0.40
7 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 11 Canterbury 23.90
8 Auckland vs. Waikato Sep 11 Auckland 16.20

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.55 9.69 -0.10
Western Province 5.25 6.46 -1.20
Blue Bulls 1.79 1.80 -0.00
Sharks 1.79 -0.60 2.40
Cheetahs 0.90 -3.42 4.30
Griquas -11.01 -12.45 1.40
Pumas -11.15 -8.62 -2.50
Cavaliers -12.27 -10.00 -2.30
Kings -16.30 -14.29 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 19 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cavaliers vs. Pumas Sep 02 25 – 22 2.20 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Kings Sep 02 57 – 25 19.20 TRUE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Sep 03 31 – 17 -6.50 FALSE
4 Western Province vs. Sharks Sep 03 34 – 27 7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Western Province Sep 09 Lions 7.80
2 Griquas vs. Cavaliers Sep 10 Griquas 4.80
3 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Sep 10 Sharks 4.40
4 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Sep 10 Blue Bulls -9.40

 

August 31, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 8.64 10.29 -1.70
Storm 8.21 4.41 3.80
Raiders 8.19 -0.55 8.70
Sharks 4.87 -1.06 5.90
Broncos 4.38 9.81 -5.40
Panthers 4.26 -3.06 7.30
Bulldogs 1.43 1.50 -0.10
Roosters 0.14 11.20 -11.10
Titans -0.44 -8.39 7.90
Sea Eagles -1.36 0.36 -1.70
Wests Tigers -1.70 -4.06 2.40
Eels -2.45 -4.62 2.20
Rabbitohs -3.29 -1.20 -2.10
Warriors -4.64 -7.47 2.80
Dragons -6.57 -0.10 -6.50
Knights -18.01 -5.41 -12.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 117 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Aug 25 16 – 24 -3.50 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Broncos Aug 26 16 – 26 9.50 FALSE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Aug 27 30 – 44 -5.30 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Panthers Aug 27 14 – 15 -1.80 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Roosters Aug 27 37 – 12 5.00 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Aug 28 24 – 36 3.20 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Aug 28 12 – 34 -10.00 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 29 30 – 18 6.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Sep 01 Broncos 7.20
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Sep 02 Bulldogs 7.70
3 Dragons vs. Knights Sep 03 Dragons 14.40
4 Cowboys vs. Titans Sep 03 Cowboys 12.10
5 Storm vs. Sharks Sep 03 Storm 6.30
6 Warriors vs. Eels Sep 04 Warriors 1.80
7 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Sep 04 Raiders -6.90
8 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Sep 04 Panthers 8.60

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 10.67 9.69 1.00
Western Province 5.25 6.46 -1.20
Sharks 1.80 -0.60 2.40
Blue Bulls 0.67 1.80 -1.10
Cheetahs 0.13 -3.42 3.50
Griquas -11.01 -12.45 1.40
Pumas -11.07 -8.62 -2.40
Cavaliers -12.35 -10.00 -2.30
Kings -15.53 -14.29 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.0%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Kings vs. Western Province Aug 26 6 – 36 -15.60 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Griquas Aug 26 35 – 41 4.80 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Cavaliers Aug 27 60 – 12 24.00 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Aug 27 26 – 19 4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cavaliers vs. Pumas Sep 02 Cavaliers 2.20
2 Cheetahs vs. Kings Sep 02 Cheetahs 19.20
3 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Sep 03 Lions -6.50
4 Western Province vs. Sharks Sep 03 Western Province 7.00

 

August 24, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.56 4.41 5.10
Cowboys 8.27 10.29 -2.00
Raiders 7.56 -0.55 8.10
Panthers 4.33 -3.06 7.40
Sharks 3.49 -1.06 4.50
Broncos 3.04 9.81 -6.80
Bulldogs 1.79 1.50 0.30
Roosters 1.52 11.20 -9.70
Titans -0.51 -8.39 7.90
Sea Eagles -0.74 0.36 -1.10
Wests Tigers -2.76 -4.06 1.30
Eels -2.91 -4.62 1.70
Warriors -3.58 -7.47 3.90
Rabbitohs -4.14 -1.20 -2.90
Dragons -6.10 -0.10 -6.00
Knights -17.16 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 111 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Aug 18 20 – 10 3.30 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 19 40 – 10 6.90 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Titans Aug 20 6 – 26 -12.60 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 20 18 – 38 -5.20 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 20 34 – 6 13.90 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Eels Aug 21 28 – 18 14.10 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Aug 21 42 – 6 6.70 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Aug 22 12 – 6 -6.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Aug 25 Cowboys -3.50
2 Storm vs. Broncos Aug 26 Storm 9.50
3 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Aug 27 Raiders -5.30
4 Titans vs. Panthers Aug 27 Panthers -1.80
5 Sharks vs. Roosters Aug 27 Sharks 5.00
6 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Aug 28 Warriors 3.20
7 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Aug 28 Rabbitohs -10.00
8 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 29 Eels 6.20

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 15.96 12.85 3.10
Auckland 8.23 11.34 -3.10
Taranaki 8.09 8.25 -0.20
Tasman 7.62 8.71 -1.10
Wellington 5.36 4.32 1.00
Otago 2.04 0.54 1.50
Counties Manukau 1.59 2.45 -0.90
Hawke’s Bay 0.81 1.85 -1.00
Waikato -3.23 -4.31 1.10
Bay of Plenty -5.38 -5.54 0.20
Manawatu -6.86 -6.71 -0.10
North Harbour -7.29 -8.15 0.90
Southland -11.22 -9.71 -1.50
Northland -19.22 -19.37 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 18 20 – 17 -6.60 FALSE
2 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 19 27 – 34 -8.70 TRUE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 20 22 – 30 -9.80 TRUE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Aug 20 26 – 36 1.50 FALSE
5 Canterbury vs. Auckland Aug 20 43 – 3 5.50 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Otago Aug 21 17 – 40 -6.20 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. Waikato Aug 21 24 – 19 17.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Wellington Aug 25 Otago 0.70
2 Manawatu vs. Southland Aug 26 Manawatu 8.40
3 Auckland vs. Northland Aug 26 Auckland 31.50
4 Waikato vs. North Harbour Aug 27 Waikato 8.10
5 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 27 Taranaki 11.30
6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Aug 28 Canterbury 12.30
7 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 28 Counties Manukau 11.00

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

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PredictGames4.html

 

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.40 9.69 -0.30
Western Province 4.40 6.46 -2.10
Sharks 1.50 -0.60 2.10
Blue Bulls 0.97 1.80 -0.80
Cheetahs 0.13 -3.42 3.50
Pumas -10.40 -8.62 -1.80
Cavaliers -11.08 -10.00 -1.10
Griquas -11.68 -12.45 0.80
Kings -14.68 -14.29 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 11 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.5%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 19 25 – 32 9.70 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 19 30 – 24 -20.30 FALSE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Kings Aug 20 49 – 35 20.40 TRUE
4 Cavaliers vs. Sharks Aug 20 20 – 41 -7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Kings vs. Western Province Aug 26 Western Province -15.60
2 Pumas vs. Griquas Aug 26 Pumas 4.80
3 Lions vs. Cavaliers Aug 27 Lions 24.00
4 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Aug 27 Sharks 4.00

 

August 17, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.53 4.41 4.10
Raiders 7.90 -0.55 8.50
Cowboys 7.28 10.29 -3.00
Sharks 4.36 -1.06 5.40
Panthers 2.75 -3.06 5.80
Broncos 2.55 9.81 -7.30
Bulldogs 2.28 1.50 0.80
Sea Eagles 0.30 0.36 -0.10
Roosters -0.46 11.20 -11.70
Titans -1.04 -8.39 7.30
Wests Tigers -1.18 -4.06 2.90
Warriors -2.59 -7.47 4.90
Eels -3.24 -4.62 1.40
Dragons -4.12 -0.10 -4.00
Rabbitohs -5.01 -1.20 -3.80
Knights -16.62 -5.41 -11.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 11 20 – 16 5.20 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 12 38 – 16 6.60 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Aug 13 18 – 19 3.60 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Aug 13 22 – 41 10.40 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 13 32 – 18 -8.60 FALSE
6 Knights vs. Panthers Aug 14 6 – 42 -13.30 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Cowboys Aug 14 22 – 10 -7.40 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Storm Aug 15 22 – 8 0.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Aug 18 Broncos 3.30
2 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 19 Panthers 6.90
3 Knights vs. Titans Aug 20 Titans -12.60
4 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 20 Storm -5.20
5 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 20 Cowboys 13.90
6 Raiders vs. Eels Aug 21 Raiders 14.10
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Aug 21 Roosters 6.70
8 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Aug 22 Sharks -6.40

 

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