Posts filed under Sports statistics (1776)

August 17, 2016

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 12.85 12.85 0.00
Auckland 11.34 11.34 0.00
Tasman 8.71 8.71 0.00
Taranaki 8.25 8.25 0.00
Wellington 4.32 4.32 0.00
Counties Manukau 2.45 2.45 0.00
Hawke’s Bay 1.85 1.85 0.00
Otago 0.54 0.54 0.00
Waikato -4.31 -4.31 0.00
Bay of Plenty -5.54 -5.54 0.00
Manawatu -6.71 -6.71 0.00
North Harbour -8.15 -8.15 0.00
Southland -9.71 -9.71 0.00
Northland -19.37 -19.37 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 18 Counties Manukau -6.60
2 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 19 Manawatu -8.70
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 20 Taranaki -9.80
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Aug 20 Hawke’s Bay 1.50
5 Canterbury vs. Auckland Aug 20 Canterbury 5.50
6 Southland vs. Otago Aug 21 Otago -6.20
7 Tasman vs. Waikato Aug 21 Tasman 17.00

 

View comments (2)

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 10.77 9.69 1.10
Western Province 5.35 6.46 -1.10
Blue Bulls 1.61 1.80 -0.20
Sharks 0.70 -0.60 1.30
Cheetahs -0.82 -3.42 2.60
Cavaliers -10.28 -10.00 -0.30
Pumas -10.40 -8.62 -1.80
Griquas -13.05 -12.45 -0.60
Kings -15.32 -14.29 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Pumas Aug 12 68 – 26 22.50 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Griquas Aug 12 46 – 24 16.10 TRUE
3 Kings vs. Cavaliers Aug 13 10 – 28 0.50 FALSE
4 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Aug 13 43 – 20 -1.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 19 Western Province 9.70
2 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 19 Lions -20.30
3 Blue Bulls vs. Kings Aug 20 Blue Bulls 20.40
4 Cavaliers vs. Sharks Aug 20 Sharks -7.50

 

August 15, 2016

New Zealand at the top of the (per-capita) table

By

On a medals-per-capita basis, New Zealand now ranks at the top of the table with two gold medals and six  silver at the Rio Olympics, Statistics NZ said today.

With eight medals overall at the half way stage at Rio, New Zealand is the highest performing country, with the equivalent of 1.77 medals for every one million people.

Slovenia is second on 1.45 medals for every one million people. Hungary and Denmark are third and fourth respectively, with Fiji coming in fifth based on its one gold for the men’s rugby sevens win.

Capture

However, on a per-capita basis for gold medals alone, Fiji tops the table, with its one gold for a population of just under 900,000. On that basis, New Zealand’s two gold medals leave it in sixth place, with a population of more than 4.5 million.

During the weekend, Mahe Drysdale’s single sculls gold medal was the high point for the New Zealand team.

On Saturday, New Zealand won two silver medals, for shot-putter Valerie Adams and at the rowing where Genevieve Behrent and Rebecca Scown also picked up a medal in the pair.

See the SNZ data here: http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/estimates_and_projections/olympics-2016.aspx#tables

View comments (6)
August 10, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 23

By

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.48 4.41 5.10
Cowboys 8.62 10.29 -1.70
Raiders 6.95 -0.55 7.50
Sharks 5.91 -1.06 7.00
Bulldogs 2.37 1.50 0.90
Broncos 1.47 9.81 -8.30
Panthers 1.19 -3.06 4.20
Sea Eagles 0.20 0.36 -0.20
Warriors -0.60 -7.47 6.90
Wests Tigers -0.81 -4.06 3.20
Titans -1.41 -8.39 7.00
Roosters -1.80 11.20 -13.00
Eels -2.17 -4.62 2.50
Dragons -5.66 -0.10 -5.60
Rabbitohs -7.00 -1.20 -5.80
Knights -15.07 -5.41 -9.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Broncos Aug 04 8 – 12 -4.20 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Aug 05 10 – 9 0.60 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 06 14 – 28 -14.50 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Raiders Aug 06 14 – 30 4.80 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Aug 06 15 – 14 22.40 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 07 14 – 24 5.30 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 07 26 – 14 -9.40 FALSE
8 Panthers vs. Roosters Aug 08 38 – 18 3.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 11 Bulldogs 5.20
2 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 12 Broncos 6.60
3 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Aug 13 Wests Tigers 3.60
4 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Aug 13 Warriors 10.40
5 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 13 Sharks -8.60
6 Knights vs. Panthers Aug 14 Panthers -13.30
7 Roosters vs. Cowboys Aug 14 Cowboys -7.40
8 Raiders vs. Storm Aug 15 Raiders 0.50

 

View comments (2)

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.69 9.69 -0.00
Western Province 5.35 6.46 -1.10
Blue Bulls 2.90 1.80 1.10
Sharks 0.10 -0.60 0.70
Cheetahs -2.11 -3.42 1.30
Pumas -9.33 -8.62 -0.70
Cavaliers -11.31 -10.00 -1.30
Griquas -12.45 -12.45 0.00
Kings -14.29 -14.29 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Aug 05 45 – 26 -1.20 FALSE
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 05 10 – 26 -4.50 TRUE
3 Cavaliers vs. Cheetahs Aug 06 16 – 44 -3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Pumas Aug 12 Lions 22.50
2 Sharks vs. Griquas Aug 12 Sharks 16.10
3 Kings vs. Cavaliers Aug 13 Kings 0.50
4 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Aug 13 Blue Bulls -1.50

 

August 5, 2016

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.69 9.69 -0.00
Western Province 6.46 6.46 0.00
Blue Bulls 1.80 1.80 0.00
Sharks -0.60 -0.60 0.00
Cheetahs -3.42 -3.42 -0.00
Pumas -8.62 -8.62 0.00
Cavaliers -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Griquas -12.45 -12.45 0.00
Kings -14.29 -14.29 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Kings Aug 05 Griquas 5.30
2 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Aug 05 Western Province -1.20
3 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 05 Sharks -4.50
4 Cavaliers vs. Cheetahs Aug 06 Cheetahs -3.10

 

August 3, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

By

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 11.84 7.26 4.60
Chiefs 8.82 2.68 6.10
Highlanders 8.27 6.80 1.50
Crusaders 8.25 9.84 -1.60
Lions 6.74 -1.80 8.50
Waratahs 5.12 4.88 0.20
Brumbies 2.91 3.15 -0.20
Stormers 0.12 -0.62 0.70
Sharks -0.91 -1.64 0.70
Bulls -1.13 -0.74 -0.40
Blues -2.11 -5.51 3.40
Jaguares -7.37 -10.00 2.60
Cheetahs -9.10 -9.27 0.20
Rebels -9.53 -6.33 -3.20
Force -10.81 -8.43 -2.40
Reds -11.74 -9.81 -1.90
Sunwolves -20.76 -10.00 -10.80
Kings -21.84 -13.66 -8.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 141 matches played, 103 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jul 30 25 – 9 5.20 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Highlanders Jul 30 42 – 30 1.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Lions Aug 06 Hurricanes 9.10

 

View comments (5)

NRL Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.95 4.41 6.50
Cowboys 10.09 10.29 -0.20
Sharks 7.34 -1.06 8.40
Raiders 5.51 -0.55 6.10
Bulldogs 2.41 1.50 0.90
Broncos 1.49 9.81 -8.30
Sea Eagles 0.24 0.36 -0.10
Panthers 0.06 -3.06 3.10
Titans -0.34 -8.39 8.00
Roosters -0.67 11.20 -11.90
Warriors -1.67 -7.47 5.80
Eels -2.21 -4.62 2.40
Wests Tigers -2.28 -4.06 1.80
Dragons -5.68 -0.10 -5.60
Rabbitohs -8.47 -1.20 -7.30
Knights -15.11 -5.41 -9.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Jul 28 32 – 16 -1.60 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jul 29 13 – 10 12.40 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Panthers Jul 30 20 – 17 2.10 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Jul 30 8 – 23 6.00 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Storm Jul 30 8 – 16 3.80 FALSE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Jul 31 4 – 54 -5.00 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Jul 31 36 – 16 18.00 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Sharks Aug 01 18 – 18 -5.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Broncos Aug 04 Broncos -4.20
2 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Aug 05 Eels 0.60
3 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 06 Bulldogs -14.50
4 Sharks vs. Raiders Aug 06 Sharks 4.80
5 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Aug 06 Storm 22.40
6 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 07 Titans 5.30
7 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 07 Cowboys -9.40
8 Panthers vs. Roosters Aug 08 Panthers 3.70

 

July 27, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for the Semi-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 11.19 7.26 3.90
Chiefs 9.46 2.68 6.80
Highlanders 8.92 6.80 2.10
Crusaders 8.25 9.84 -1.60
Lions 6.09 -1.80 7.90
Waratahs 5.12 4.88 0.20
Brumbies 2.91 3.15 -0.20
Stormers 0.12 -0.62 0.70
Sharks -0.91 -1.64 0.70
Bulls -1.13 -0.74 -0.40
Blues -2.11 -5.51 3.40
Jaguares -7.37 -10.00 2.60
Cheetahs -9.10 -9.27 0.20
Rebels -9.53 -6.33 -3.20
Force -10.81 -8.43 -2.40
Reds -11.74 -9.81 -1.90
Sunwolves -20.76 -10.00 -10.80
Kings -21.84 -13.66 -8.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 139 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jul 22 9 – 15 -1.50 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Jul 22 41 – 0 12.70 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Crusaders Jul 23 42 – 25 -0.20 FALSE
4 Stormers vs. Chiefs Jul 23 21 – 60 -0.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jul 30 Hurricanes 5.20
2 Lions vs. Highlanders Jul 30 Lions 1.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 21

By

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 10.93 10.29 0.60
Storm 10.11 4.41 5.70
Sharks 7.79 -1.06 8.80
Bulldogs 3.09 1.50 1.60
Broncos 2.71 9.81 -7.10
Raiders 2.54 -0.55 3.10
Panthers 0.13 -3.06 3.20
Sea Eagles 0.08 0.36 -0.30
Eels -0.77 -4.62 3.90
Titans -0.79 -8.39 7.60
Warriors -1.74 -7.47 5.70
Roosters -1.89 11.20 -13.10
Wests Tigers -3.72 -4.06 0.30
Rabbitohs -5.50 -1.20 -4.30
Dragons -6.35 -0.10 -6.30
Knights -14.95 -5.41 -9.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Jul 21 36 – 0 6.90 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Panthers Jul 22 12 – 31 9.40 FALSE
3 Raiders vs. Warriors Jul 23 26 – 22 9.10 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Eels Jul 23 34 – 14 0.30 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Roosters Jul 23 26 – 10 14.80 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Knights Jul 24 36 – 4 24.70 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 24 12 – 25 -0.90 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 25 12 – 20 -1.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Jul 28 Broncos -1.60
2 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jul 29 Bulldogs 12.40
3 Warriors vs. Panthers Jul 30 Warriors 2.10
4 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Jul 30 Eels 6.00
5 Cowboys vs. Storm Jul 30 Cowboys 3.80
6 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Jul 31 Raiders -5.00
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Jul 31 Sea Eagles 18.00
8 Titans vs. Sharks Aug 01 Sharks -5.60

 

« Later posts
Earlier posts »