Posts filed under Sports statistics (1776)

September 25, 2015

Rugby World Cup Predictions, 25 September 2015 to 27 September 2015

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I decided updated ratings and predictions would be a good idea at this time. I can then post new predictions before the next games after September 27, which are on September 29.

Team Ratings at 25 September

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to 25 September along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

Rating at 25 September Rating at RWC Start Difference
New Zealand 27.38 29.01 -1.60
South Africa 21.15 22.73 -1.60
Australia 19.83 20.36 -0.50
Ireland 18.15 17.48 0.70
England 18.04 18.51 -0.50
Wales 13.35 13.93 -0.60
France 11.53 11.70 -0.20
Argentina 8.02 7.38 0.60
Scotland 5.85 4.84 1.00
Samoa -2.71 -2.28 -0.40
Fiji -3.23 -4.23 1.00
Italy -6.26 -5.86 -0.40
Tonga -7.23 -6.31 -0.90
Japan -10.61 -11.18 0.60
USA -15.54 -15.97 0.40
Georgia -16.56 -17.48 0.90
Canada -18.73 -18.06 -0.70
Romania -20.63 -21.20 0.60
Uruguay -30.46 -31.04 0.60
Namibia -34.63 -35.62 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for previous games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 England vs. Fiji Sep 18 35 – 11 29.20 TRUE
2 Tonga vs. Georgia Sep 19 10 – 17 11.20 FALSE
3 Ireland vs. Canada Sep 19 50 – 7 35.50 TRUE
4 South Africa vs. Japan Sep 19 32 – 34 33.90 FALSE
5 France vs. Italy Sep 19 32 – 10 17.60 TRUE
6 Samoa vs. USA Sep 20 25 – 16 13.70 TRUE
7 Wales vs. Uruguay Sep 20 54 – 9 51.50 TRUE
8 New Zealand vs. Argentina Sep 20 26 – 16 21.60 TRUE
9 Scotland vs. Japan Sep 23 45 – 10 14.40 TRUE
10 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 23 28 – 13 24.10 TRUE
11 France vs. Romania Sep 23 38 – 11 33.30 TRUE
12 New Zealand vs. Namibia Sep 24 58 – 14 64.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for 25 September to 27 September

The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Argentina vs. Georgia Sep 25 Argentina 24.60
2 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 Italy 12.50
3 South Africa vs. Samoa Sep 26 South Africa 23.90
4 England vs. Wales Sep 26 England 11.20
5 Australia vs. Uruguay Sep 27 Australia 50.30
6 Scotland vs. USA Sep 27 Scotland 21.40
7 Ireland vs. Romania Sep 27 Ireland 38.80

 

September 23, 2015

Rugby World Cup Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

Current Rating Rating at RWC Start Difference
New Zealand 28.37 29.01 -0.60
South Africa 21.15 22.73 -1.60
Australia 20.36 20.36 0.00
Ireland 18.15 17.48 0.70
England 18.04 18.51 -0.50
Wales 13.35 13.93 -0.60
France 12.10 11.70 0.40
Argentina 8.02 7.38 0.60
Scotland 4.84 4.84 -0.00
Samoa -2.71 -2.28 -0.40
Fiji -3.76 -4.23 0.50
Italy -6.26 -5.86 -0.40
Tonga -7.23 -6.31 -0.90
Japan -9.60 -11.18 1.60
USA -15.54 -15.97 0.40
Georgia -16.56 -17.48 0.90
Canada -18.73 -18.06 -0.70
Romania -21.20 -21.20 -0.00
Uruguay -30.46 -31.04 0.60
Namibia -35.62 -35.62 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 England vs. Fiji Sep 18 35 – 11 29.20 TRUE
2 Tonga vs. Georgia Sep 19 10 – 17 11.20 FALSE
3 Ireland vs. Canada Sep 19 50 – 7 35.50 TRUE
4 South Africa vs. Japan Sep 19 32 – 34 33.90 FALSE
5 France vs. Italy Sep 19 32 – 10 17.60 TRUE
6 Samoa vs. USA Sep 20 25 – 16 13.70 TRUE
7 Wales vs. Uruguay Sep 20 54 – 9 51.50 TRUE
8 New Zealand vs. Argentina Sep 20 26 – 16 21.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Scotland vs. Japan Sep 23 Scotland 14.40
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 23 Australia 24.10
3 France vs. Romania Sep 23 France 33.30
4 New Zealand vs. Namibia Sep 24 New Zealand 64.00
5 Argentina vs. Georgia Sep 25 Argentina 24.60
6 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 Italy 12.50
7 South Africa vs. Samoa Sep 26 South Africa 23.90
8 England vs. Wales Sep 26 England 11.20

 

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NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 13.13 9.09 4.00
Cowboys 9.47 9.52 -0.10
Broncos 8.88 4.03 4.80
Storm 6.15 4.36 1.80
Bulldogs 1.51 0.21 1.30
Sea Eagles 0.46 2.68 -2.20
Dragons -0.09 -1.74 1.60
Rabbitohs -0.24 13.06 -13.30
Raiders -1.13 -7.09 6.00
Sharks -1.65 -10.76 9.10
Panthers -2.78 3.69 -6.50
Eels -5.07 -7.19 2.10
Wests Tigers -5.16 -13.13 8.00
Knights -5.46 -0.28 -5.20
Warriors -7.47 3.07 -10.50
Titans -9.20 -8.20 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 117 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Sep 18 38 – 12 12.80 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Sharks Sep 19 39 – 0 10.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Sep 25 Roosters -1.20
2 Storm vs. Cowboys Sep 26 Cowboys -0.30

 

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.67 10.90 2.80
Tasman 11.53 12.86 -1.30
Taranaki 10.21 7.70 2.50
Auckland 7.35 5.14 2.20
Hawke’s Bay 3.83 -0.57 4.40
Wellington 3.66 -4.62 8.30
Counties Manukau 1.06 7.86 -6.80
Otago -2.63 -4.84 2.20
Waikato -6.67 -6.96 0.30
Southland -7.11 -6.01 -1.10
Manawatu -7.82 -1.52 -6.30
Bay of Plenty -7.94 -9.77 1.80
North Harbour -8.78 -10.54 1.80
Northland -14.35 -3.64 -10.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. North Harbour Sep 16 39 – 20 29.30 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Otago Sep 17 36 – 37 12.80 FALSE
3 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 18 41 – 0 16.50 TRUE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 19 23 – 17 17.90 TRUE
5 Southland vs. Manawatu Sep 19 49 – 14 -1.90 FALSE
6 Northland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 19 17 – 42 -8.40 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 20 10 – 17 -21.90 TRUE
8 Tasman vs. Auckland Sep 20 19 – 28 12.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Waikato Sep 23 Canterbury 24.30
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Auckland Sep 24 Hawke’s Bay 0.50
3 Northland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 25 Bay of Plenty -2.40
4 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Sep 26 Tasman -6.50
5 Otago vs. Southland Sep 26 Otago 8.50
6 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Sep 26 Manawatu 5.00
7 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 27 Wellington -6.30
8 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Sep 27 Canterbury 7.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 5.01 3.04 2.00
Western Province 4.92 4.93 -0.00
Blue Bulls 1.54 0.17 1.40
Sharks 1.46 3.43 -2.00
Cheetahs -1.59 -1.75 0.20
Pumas -6.55 -6.47 -0.10
Griquas -9.20 -7.81 -1.40
Kings -9.48 -9.44 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Kings Sep 18 20 – 9 5.90 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Sep 18 29 – 14 6.40 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Sep 19 26 – 18 6.90 TRUE
4 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Sep 19 44 – 24 10.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Sep 25 Sharks 3.40
2 Cheetahs vs. Lions Sep 26 Lions -3.10
3 Western Province vs. Pumas Sep 26 Western Province 15.00
4 Kings vs. Griquas Sep 26 Kings 3.20

 

September 16, 2015

Rugby World Cup Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

Current Rating Rating at RWC Start Difference
New Zealand 29.01 29.01 0.00
South Africa 22.73 22.73 0.00
Australia 20.36 20.36 0.00
England 18.51 18.51 0.00
Ireland 17.48 17.48 0.00
Wales 13.93 13.93 -0.00
France 11.70 11.70 0.00
Argentina 7.38 7.38 -0.00
Scotland 4.84 4.84 -0.00
Samoa -2.28 -2.28 0.00
Fiji -4.23 -4.23 -0.00
Italy -5.86 -5.86 0.00
Tonga -6.31 -6.31 0.00
Japan -11.18 -11.18 -0.00
USA -15.97 -15.97 -0.00
Georgia -17.48 -17.48 -0.00
Canada -18.06 -18.06 -0.00
Romania -21.20 -21.20 -0.00
Uruguay -31.04 -31.04 -0.00
Namibia -35.62 -35.62 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 England vs. Fiji Sep 18 England 22.70
2 Tonga vs. Georgia Sep 19 Tonga 17.70
3 Ireland vs. Canada Sep 19 Ireland 42.00
4 South Africa vs. Japan Sep 19 South Africa 40.40
5 France vs. Italy Sep 19 France 24.10
6 Samoa vs. USA Sep 20 Samoa 20.20
7 Wales vs. Uruguay Sep 20 Wales 45.00
8 New Zealand vs. Argentina Sep 20 New Zealand 28.10

 

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NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 12.20 9.09 3.10
Broncos 8.88 4.03 4.80
Cowboys 7.52 9.52 -2.00
Storm 6.15 4.36 1.80
Bulldogs 2.44 0.21 2.20
Sea Eagles 0.46 2.68 -2.20
Sharks 0.30 -10.76 11.10
Dragons -0.09 -1.74 1.60
Rabbitohs -0.24 13.06 -13.30
Raiders -1.13 -7.09 6.00
Panthers -2.78 3.69 -6.50
Eels -5.07 -7.19 2.10
Wests Tigers -5.16 -13.13 8.00
Knights -5.46 -0.28 -5.20
Warriors -7.47 3.07 -10.50
Titans -9.20 -8.20 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Storm Sep 11 18 – 20 10.90 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Sep 12 11 – 10 6.30 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Sep 12 16 – 12 4.40 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Sep 13 28 – 12 1.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Sep 18 Roosters 12.80
2 Cowboys vs. Sharks Sep 19 Cowboys 10.20

 

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 14.93 10.90 4.00
Tasman 14.34 12.86 1.50
Taranaki 8.00 7.70 0.30
Auckland 5.47 5.14 0.30
Hawke’s Bay 4.91 -0.57 5.50
Wellington 4.89 -4.62 9.50
Counties Manukau -0.43 7.86 -8.30
Otago -3.87 -4.84 1.00
Waikato -4.46 -6.96 2.50
Manawatu -4.50 -1.52 -3.00
Bay of Plenty -9.01 -9.77 0.80
Southland -10.43 -6.01 -4.40
North Harbour -10.97 -10.54 -0.40
Northland -12.86 -3.64 -9.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Auckland vs. Manawatu Sep 09 45 – 28 16.00 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. Southland Sep 10 30 – 25 11.10 TRUE
3 Wellington vs. Tasman Sep 11 17 – 36 -2.50 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Sep 12 28 – 20 -9.70 FALSE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Sep 12 9 – 32 -10.80 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 12 29 – 14 13.80 TRUE
7 Auckland vs. Otago Sep 13 35 – 29 14.90 TRUE
8 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 13 42 – 17 9.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. North Harbour Sep 16 Tasman 29.30
2 Wellington vs. Otago Sep 17 Wellington 12.80
3 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 18 Taranaki 16.50
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 19 Hawke’s Bay 17.90
5 Southland vs. Manawatu Sep 19 Manawatu -1.90
6 Northland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 19 Counties Manukau -8.40
7 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 20 Canterbury -21.90
8 Tasman vs. Auckland Sep 20 Tasman 12.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 4.95 3.04 1.90
Western Province 4.66 4.93 -0.30
Blue Bulls 1.79 0.17 1.60
Sharks 1.51 3.43 -1.90
Cheetahs -1.86 -1.75 -0.10
Pumas -6.80 -6.47 -0.30
Griquas -8.93 -7.81 -1.10
Kings -9.23 -9.44 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Kings vs. Cheetahs Sep 11 32 – 24 -4.50 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Western Province Sep 12 27 – 37 0.90 FALSE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Sep 12 28 – 36 0.80 FALSE
4 Griquas vs. Pumas Sep 12 32 – 15 0.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Kings Sep 18 Pumas 5.90
2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Sep 18 Western Province 6.40
3 Lions vs. Sharks Sep 19 Lions 6.90
4 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Sep 19 Cheetahs 10.60

 

September 9, 2015

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 13.10 9.09 4.00
Broncos 8.92 4.03 4.90
Cowboys 7.48 9.52 -2.00
Storm 5.24 4.36 0.90
Bulldogs 2.84 0.21 2.60
Rabbitohs 0.77 13.06 -12.30
Sea Eagles 0.46 2.68 -2.20
Dragons -0.48 -1.74 1.30
Sharks -0.71 -10.76 10.00
Raiders -1.13 -7.09 6.00
Panthers -2.78 3.69 -6.50
Eels -5.07 -7.19 2.10
Wests Tigers -5.16 -13.13 8.00
Knights -5.46 -0.28 -5.20
Warriors -7.47 3.07 -10.50
Titans -9.20 -8.20 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 112 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 03 8 – 15 8.90 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 04 30 – 0 13.00 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Knights Sep 05 30 – 12 3.70 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Sep 05 32 – 30 8.60 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Titans Sep 05 42 – 12 18.00 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Raiders Sep 06 24 – 28 -0.40 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Sep 06 12 – 14 2.50 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Sep 06 26 – 22 16.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Storm Sep 11 Roosters 10.90
2 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Sep 12 Bulldogs 6.30
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Sep 12 Broncos 4.40
4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Sep 13 Sharks 1.50

 

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