Posts filed under Sports statistics (1776)

August 19, 2015

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 5.04 4.93 0.10
Lions 3.84 3.04 0.80
Sharks 2.79 3.43 -0.60
Blue Bulls 1.27 0.17 1.10
Cheetahs -2.27 -1.75 -0.50
Pumas -6.27 -6.47 0.20
Griquas -8.49 -7.81 -0.70
Kings -9.80 -9.44 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Pumas Aug 14 44 – 27 13.20 TRUE
2 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 14 36 – 12 12.60 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 15 9 – 3 11.30 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Kings Aug 15 33 – 25 16.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Kings vs. Pumas Aug 21 Pumas -0.00
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 21 Cheetahs -2.70
3 Sharks vs. Lions Aug 22 Sharks 2.40
4 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Aug 22 Western Province -0.30

 

August 12, 2015

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 1, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 12.86 12.86 0.00
Canterbury 10.90 10.90 0.00
Counties Manukau 7.86 7.86 0.00
Taranaki 7.70 7.70 0.00
Auckland 5.14 5.14 0.00
Hawke’s Bay -0.57 -0.57 0.00
Manawatu -1.52 -1.52 0.00
Northland -3.64 -3.64 0.00
Wellington -4.62 -4.62 0.00
Otago -4.84 -4.84 0.00
Southland -6.01 -6.01 0.00
Waikato -6.96 -6.96 0.00
Bay of Plenty -9.77 -9.77 0.00
North Harbour -10.54 -10.54 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Auckland Aug 13 Auckland -7.20
2 Waikato vs. Tasman Aug 14 Tasman -15.80
3 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Aug 14 Bay of Plenty 4.80
4 Taranaki vs. Wellington Aug 15 Taranaki 16.30
5 Otago vs. Canterbury Aug 15 Canterbury -11.70
6 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Aug 16 Counties Manukau 13.40
7 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Aug 16 Hawke’s Bay 7.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 5.31 4.93 0.40
Lions 3.65 3.04 0.60
Sharks 3.04 3.43 -0.40
Blue Bulls 0.96 0.17 0.80
Cheetahs -2.54 -1.75 -0.80
Pumas -6.08 -6.47 0.40
Griquas -8.18 -7.81 -0.40
Kings -10.05 -9.44 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 4 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 07 19 – 43 -9.20 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 07 33 – 24 -6.40 FALSE
3 Kings vs. Lions Aug 08 14 – 51 -9.00 TRUE
4 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Aug 08 19 – 57 1.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Pumas Aug 14 Lions 13.20
2 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 14 Blue Bulls 12.60
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 15 Western Province 11.30
4 Sharks vs. Kings Aug 15 Sharks 16.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.79 9.09 1.70
Cowboys 6.60 9.52 -2.90
Broncos 6.14 4.03 2.10
Rabbitohs 4.40 13.06 -8.70
Sea Eagles 4.25 2.68 1.60
Storm 3.62 4.36 -0.70
Bulldogs 2.08 0.21 1.90
Dragons 1.86 -1.74 3.60
Sharks 0.01 -10.76 10.80
Raiders -1.62 -7.09 5.50
Warriors -3.56 3.07 -6.60
Panthers -3.58 3.69 -7.30
Wests Tigers -6.05 -13.13 7.10
Eels -6.13 -7.19 1.10
Knights -7.45 -0.28 -7.20
Titans -10.02 -8.20 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Aug 07 16 – 18 8.60 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Aug 07 28 – 8 0.10 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Dragons Aug 08 0 – 36 3.90 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Cowboys Aug 08 30 – 18 -6.10 FALSE
5 Eels vs. Panthers Aug 08 10 – 4 -0.50 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Titans Aug 09 36 – 14 15.70 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Roosters Aug 09 22 – 38 -15.10 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 10 18 – 20 9.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Aug 13 Cowboys 5.20
2 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 14 Broncos 7.30
3 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Aug 15 Wests Tigers 4.40
4 Panthers vs. Warriors Aug 15 Panthers 4.00
5 Roosters vs. Eels Aug 15 Roosters 19.90
6 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 16 Sea Eagles -2.90
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans Aug 16 Bulldogs 15.10
8 Sharks vs. Storm Aug 17 Storm -0.60

 

August 5, 2015

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 4.93 4.93 -0.00
Sharks 3.43 3.43 0.00
Lions 3.04 3.04 -0.00
Blue Bulls 0.17 0.17 0.00
Cheetahs -1.75 -1.75 -0.00
Pumas -6.47 -6.47 0.00
Griquas -7.81 -7.81 -0.00
Kings -9.44 -9.44 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 07 Western Province -9.20
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 07 Sharks -6.40
3 Kings vs. Lions Aug 08 Lions -9.00
4 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Aug 08 Cheetahs 1.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.71 9.09 1.60
Cowboys 7.85 9.52 -1.70
Broncos 6.90 4.03 2.90
Rabbitohs 5.77 13.06 -7.30
Storm 3.16 4.36 -1.20
Sea Eagles 2.88 2.68 0.20
Bulldogs 1.33 0.21 1.10
Dragons -0.79 -1.74 0.90
Raiders -0.84 -7.09 6.20
Warriors -0.91 3.07 -4.00
Sharks -1.24 -10.76 9.50
Panthers -3.11 3.69 -6.80
Eels -6.60 -7.19 0.60
Wests Tigers -6.83 -13.13 6.30
Knights -7.38 -0.28 -7.10
Titans -9.57 -8.20 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jul 31 38 – 28 12.80 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Jul 31 34 – 16 -10.90 FALSE
3 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 01 14 – 18 5.70 FALSE
4 Cowboys vs. Raiders Aug 01 32 – 24 12.30 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Aug 01 44 – 14 -5.80 FALSE
6 Dragons vs. Knights Aug 02 46 – 24 7.60 TRUE
7 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Aug 02 20 – 16 13.20 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Eels Aug 03 24 – 14 -1.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Aug 07 Broncos 8.60
2 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Aug 07 Sea Eagles 0.10
3 Warriors vs. Dragons Aug 08 Warriors 3.90
4 Sharks vs. Cowboys Aug 08 Cowboys -6.10
5 Eels vs. Panthers Aug 08 Panthers -0.50
6 Storm vs. Titans Aug 09 Storm 15.70
7 Knights vs. Roosters Aug 09 Roosters -15.10
8 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 10 Raiders 9.00

 

July 29, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 21

By

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.93 9.09 1.80
Broncos 9.29 4.03 5.30
Cowboys 8.18 9.52 -1.30
Rabbitohs 6.42 13.06 -6.60
Storm 5.12 4.36 0.80
Bulldogs 1.11 0.21 0.90
Sea Eagles 0.49 2.68 -2.20
Warriors -0.22 3.07 -3.30
Raiders -1.16 -7.09 5.90
Dragons -1.80 -1.74 -0.10
Sharks -1.93 -10.76 8.80
Panthers -3.77 3.69 -7.50
Eels -5.78 -7.19 1.40
Knights -6.37 -0.28 -6.10
Wests Tigers -8.78 -13.13 4.30
Titans -10.39 -8.20 -2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Titans Jul 24 34 – 0 20.80 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jul 24 8 – 33 -15.30 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 25 52 – 6 11.10 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Dragons Jul 25 22 – 4 8.60 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Jul 25 12 – 32 7.00 FALSE
6 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jul 26 16 – 18 7.40 FALSE
7 Panthers vs. Raiders Jul 26 24 – 34 2.10 FALSE
8 Cowboys vs. Eels Jul 27 46 – 4 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jul 31 Roosters 12.80
2 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Jul 31 Storm -10.90
3 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 01 Warriors 5.70
4 Cowboys vs. Raiders Aug 01 Cowboys 12.30
5 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Aug 01 Broncos -5.80
6 Dragons vs. Knights Aug 02 Dragons 7.60
7 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Aug 02 Rabbitohs 13.20
8 Titans vs. Eels Aug 03 Eels -1.60

 

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July 22, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.23 9.09 1.10
Broncos 8.36 4.03 4.30
Cowboys 6.22 9.52 -3.30
Storm 4.44 4.36 0.10
Rabbitohs 4.09 13.06 -9.00
Bulldogs 1.78 0.21 1.60
Warriors 1.61 3.07 -1.50
Dragons -1.12 -1.74 0.60
Sea Eagles -1.34 2.68 -4.00
Raiders -2.02 -7.09 5.10
Sharks -2.60 -10.76 8.20
Panthers -2.91 3.69 -6.60
Eels -3.82 -7.19 3.40
Knights -4.03 -0.28 -3.80
Wests Tigers -8.09 -13.13 5.00
Titans -9.46 -8.20 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Panthers Jul 17 52 – 10 5.50 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jul 17 4 – 28 0.80 FALSE
3 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jul 18 8 – 24 0.00 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Titans Jul 18 30 – 2 5.30 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Sharks Jul 18 20 – 21 4.40 FALSE
6 Roosters vs. Warriors Jul 19 24 – 0 10.80 TRUE
7 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jul 19 42 – 16 18.40 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 20 12 – 30 -2.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Titans Jul 24 Broncos 20.80
2 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jul 24 Roosters -15.30
3 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 25 Rabbitohs 11.10
4 Storm vs. Dragons Jul 25 Storm 8.60
5 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Jul 25 Warriors 7.00
6 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jul 26 Bulldogs 7.40
7 Panthers vs. Raiders Jul 26 Panthers 2.10
8 Cowboys vs. Eels Jul 27 Cowboys 13.00

 

July 15, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.23 9.09 -0.90
Broncos 7.81 4.03 3.80
Cowboys 5.13 9.52 -4.40
Rabbitohs 2.97 13.06 -10.10
Warriors 2.54 3.07 -0.50
Storm 2.00 4.36 -2.40
Panthers 0.60 3.69 -3.10
Bulldogs 0.10 0.21 -0.10
Dragons -0.01 -1.74 1.70
Sea Eagles -0.26 2.68 -2.90
Raiders -1.62 -7.09 5.50
Eels -2.14 -7.19 5.00
Sharks -3.00 -10.76 7.80
Knights -5.58 -0.28 -5.30
Wests Tigers -7.54 -13.13 5.60
Titans -7.91 -8.20 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 10 36 – 22 5.80 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jul 11 8 – 16 -4.10 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 12 28 – 14 3.00 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Dragons Jul 12 28 – 8 -3.20 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jul 13 6 – 38 -0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Panthers Jul 17 Storm 4.40
2 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jul 17 Eels 0.80
3 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jul 18 Dragons 0.00
4 Knights vs. Titans Jul 18 Knights 5.30
5 Raiders vs. Sharks Jul 18 Raiders 4.40
6 Roosters vs. Warriors Jul 19 Roosters 9.70
7 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jul 19 Broncos 18.40
8 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 20 Cowboys -2.40

 

July 8, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.23 9.09 -0.90
Broncos 7.52 4.03 3.50
Cowboys 5.13 9.52 -4.40
Rabbitohs 2.97 13.06 -10.10
Storm 2.78 4.36 -1.60
Warriors 1.76 3.07 -1.30
Dragons 1.57 -1.74 3.30
Panthers 0.60 3.69 -3.10
Bulldogs 0.38 0.21 0.20
Eels -2.14 -7.19 5.00
Raiders -2.21 -7.09 4.90
Sea Eagles -2.38 2.68 -5.10
Sharks -4.58 -10.76 6.20
Knights -4.99 -0.28 -4.70
Titans -5.78 -8.20 2.40
Wests Tigers -7.54 -13.13 5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 03 20 – 6 -1.50 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jul 04 12 – 18 0.40 FALSE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Jul 05 28 – 16 4.10 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 06 16 – 28 -0.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 10 Raiders 5.80
2 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jul 11 Broncos -4.10
3 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 12 Warriors 3.00
4 Sharks vs. Dragons Jul 12 Dragons -3.20
5 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jul 13 Sea Eagles -0.40
6 Panthers vs. Roosters Jul 11 Roosters -4.60

 

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