November 7, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Munster 10.28 10.54 -0.30
Bulls 10.27 9.00 1.30
Stormers 9.29 8.93 0.40
Leinster 9.18 10.73 -1.60
Ulster 6.68 7.80 -1.10
Glasgow 5.94 4.19 1.70
Connacht 3.58 3.17 0.40
Sharks -1.15 0.85 -2.00
Edinburgh -1.67 -2.26 0.60
Lions -3.24 -4.26 1.00
Benetton -3.58 -5.12 1.50
Cardiff Rugby -5.55 -5.16 -0.40
Scarlets -5.69 -2.23 -3.50
Ospreys -6.71 -7.79 1.10
Dragons -9.74 -8.14 -1.60
Zebre -17.89 -20.25 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Stormers Nov 04 20 – 9 -1.30 FALSE
2 Ospreys vs. Sharks Nov 04 19 – 5 -4.30 FALSE
3 Zebre vs. Bulls Nov 04 29 – 54 -23.90 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Nov 05 36 – 27 16.30 TRUE
5 Munster vs. Dragons Nov 05 45 – 14 22.70 TRUE
6 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 05 31 – 25 0.80 TRUE
7 Connacht vs. Ulster Nov 05 22 – 20 -1.90 FALSE
8 Benetton vs. Lions Nov 05 15 – 10 3.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Sharks Nov 11 Sharks -12.70
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Bulls Nov 11 Bulls -11.80
3 Ulster vs. Munster Nov 11 Munster -1.60
4 Benetton vs. Stormers Nov 12 Stormers -8.90
5 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Nov 12 Glasgow -8.70
6 Scarlets vs. Lions Nov 12 Scarlets 1.50
7 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Nov 12 Connacht -1.30
8 Dragons vs. Leinster Nov 12 Leinster -14.90

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.59 7.24 -0.60
Stade Rochelais 5.51 6.40 -0.90
Racing 92 4.43 3.42 1.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.87 4.07 -0.20
Stade Francais 3.36 2.62 0.70
Toulon 2.89 3.11 -0.20
Lyon 2.77 2.97 -0.20
Clermont 1.48 1.47 0.00
Section Paloise 1.26 -0.44 1.70
Montpellier 1.12 2.09 -1.00
Castres Olympique 0.71 -0.39 1.10
Bayonne -1.66 -1.32 -0.30
USA Perpignan -5.93 -3.64 -2.30
US Oyonnax -8.80 -10.00 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier Nov 05 26 – 13 8.80 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. Bayonne Nov 05 46 – 14 8.20 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Lyon Nov 05 22 – 20 8.80 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 05 13 – 9 0.90 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Nov 05 39 – 16 8.20 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Nov 05 26 – 22 -3.00 FALSE
7 US Oyonnax vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 06 19 – 17 -8.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. US Oyonnax Nov 12 Castres Olympique 16.00
2 Lyon vs. Stade Francais Nov 12 Lyon 5.90
3 Montpellier vs. Clermont Nov 12 Montpellier 6.10
4 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 12 Section Paloise 3.90
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne Nov 12 Stade Rochelais 13.70
6 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Nov 12 Stade Toulousain 19.00
7 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Nov 13 Toulon 5.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.62 -0.89 7.50
Harlequins 4.04 1.93 2.10
Sale Sharks 3.78 6.46 -2.70
Saracens 3.62 6.82 -3.20
Leicester Tigers 3.45 6.13 -2.70
Bristol 2.43 1.00 1.40
Northampton Saints 1.35 2.66 -1.30
Bath -0.33 -1.26 0.90
Gloucester -3.65 -1.45 -2.20
Newcastle Falcons -10.56 -10.63 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Nov 04 24 – 10 13.30 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 04 40 – 12 19.00 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Nov 05 24 – 18 8.10 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 05 32 – 17 4.30 TRUE
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Nov 06 29 – 20 10.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Bath Nov 11 Gloucester 2.70
2 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Nov 12 Bristol 4.70
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Nov 12 Leicester Tigers 5.40
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Nov 13 Saracens -8.20
5 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 13 Northampton Saints 0.70

 

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October 31, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stormers 10.24 8.93 1.30
Bulls 10.16 9.00 1.20
Leinster 9.92 10.73 -0.80
Munster 9.60 10.54 -0.90
Ulster 7.07 7.80 -0.70
Glasgow 4.99 4.19 0.80
Connacht 3.19 3.17 0.00
Sharks 0.22 0.85 -0.60
Edinburgh -2.40 -2.26 -0.10
Lions -3.07 -4.26 1.20
Benetton -3.75 -5.12 1.40
Cardiff Rugby -5.04 -5.16 0.10
Scarlets -6.20 -2.23 -4.00
Ospreys -8.08 -7.79 -0.30
Dragons -9.07 -8.14 -0.90
Zebre -17.78 -20.25 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ospreys vs. Zebre Oct 28 34 – 31 15.70 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Glasgow Oct 29 34 – 26 0.80 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Scarlets Oct 29 52 – 7 16.30 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Sharks Oct 29 34 – 13 12.30 TRUE
5 Edinburgh vs. Lions Oct 29 17 – 16 5.60 TRUE
6 Benetton vs. Munster Oct 30 13 – 13 -11.10 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 30 9 – 16 -0.80 TRUE
8 Ulster vs. Bulls Oct 30 26 – 19 -0.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Stormers Nov 04 Stormers -1.30
2 Ospreys vs. Sharks Nov 04 Sharks -4.30
3 Zebre vs. Bulls Nov 04 Bulls -23.90
4 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Nov 05 Leinster 16.30
5 Munster vs. Dragons Nov 05 Munster 22.70
6 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 05 Scarlets 0.80
7 Connacht vs. Ulster Nov 05 Ulster -1.90
8 Benetton vs. Lions Nov 05 Benetton 3.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.74 7.24 -0.50
Stade Rochelais 5.88 6.40 -0.50
Racing 92 4.77 3.42 1.30
Bordeaux Begles 3.67 4.07 -0.40
Toulon 3.24 3.11 0.10
Stade Francais 2.86 2.62 0.20
Lyon 2.43 2.97 -0.50
Montpellier 1.33 2.09 -0.80
Castres Olympique 1.21 -0.39 1.60
Section Paloise 1.10 -0.44 1.50
Clermont 0.74 1.47 -0.70
Bayonne -0.92 -1.32 0.40
USA Perpignan -6.28 -3.64 -2.60
US Oyonnax -9.17 -10.00 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Oct 30 16 – 3 1.90 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. Clermont Oct 30 41 – 22 7.40 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Oct 30 16 – 19 3.70 FALSE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Oct 30 24 – 27 12.20 FALSE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 30 29 – 22 9.90 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. US Oyonnax Oct 30 41 – 7 17.80 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Oct 30 24 – 39 0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier Nov 04 Bordeaux Begles 8.80
2 Clermont vs. Bayonne Nov 04 Clermont 8.20
3 Racing 92 vs. Lyon Nov 04 Racing 92 8.80
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 04 Section Paloise 0.90
5 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Nov 04 Stade Francais 8.20
6 US Oyonnax vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 04 Stade Rochelais -8.50
7 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Nov 04 Toulon -3.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.76 -0.89 7.60
Leicester Tigers 4.41 6.13 -1.70
Sale Sharks 3.71 6.46 -2.80
Harlequins 3.23 1.93 1.30
Saracens 2.66 6.82 -4.20
Bristol 2.29 1.00 1.30
Northampton Saints 1.56 2.66 -1.10
Bath -0.54 -1.26 0.70
Gloucester -3.58 -1.45 -2.10
Newcastle Falcons -9.75 -10.63 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Saracens Oct 28 3 – 24 4.00 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Harlequins Oct 28 21 – 23 6.60 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Oct 29 43 – 0 2.30 TRUE
4 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 29 24 – 25 1.60 FALSE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Oct 30 14 – 16 -6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Nov 04 Sale Sharks 13.30
2 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 04 Harlequins 19.00
3 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Nov 05 Northampton Saints 8.10
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 05 Saracens 4.30
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Nov 06 Exeter Chiefs 10.50

 

October 26, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 10.92 9.00 1.90
Munster 10.48 10.54 -0.10
Leinster 9.21 10.73 -1.50
Stormers 8.19 8.93 -0.70
Ulster 6.31 7.80 -1.50
Glasgow 5.71 4.19 1.50
Connacht 2.47 3.17 -0.70
Sharks 0.92 0.85 0.10
Edinburgh -1.95 -2.26 0.30
Lions -3.53 -4.26 0.70
Scarlets -4.16 -2.23 -1.90
Benetton -4.62 -5.12 0.50
Cardiff Rugby -5.66 -5.16 -0.50
Ospreys -7.10 -7.79 0.70
Dragons -8.45 -8.14 -0.30
Zebre -18.76 -20.25 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Ulster Oct 21 36 – 40 -24.00 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Ospreys Oct 22 34 – 26 15.00 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Edinburgh Oct 22 17 – 22 -1.90 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Stormers Oct 22 33 – 35 -11.20 TRUE
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Benetton Oct 22 22 – 23 4.00 FALSE
6 Munster vs. Sharks Oct 22 34 – 21 13.70 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Scarlets Oct 22 63 – 21 15.20 TRUE
8 Glasgow vs. Leinster Oct 23 43 – 25 -2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ospreys vs. Zebre Oct 28 Ospreys 15.70
2 Connacht vs. Glasgow Oct 29 Connacht 0.80
3 Stormers vs. Scarlets Oct 29 Stormers 16.30
4 Leinster vs. Sharks Oct 29 Leinster 12.30
5 Edinburgh vs. Lions Oct 29 Edinburgh 5.60
6 Benetton vs. Munster Oct 30 Munster -11.10
7 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 30 Cardiff Rugby -0.80
8 Ulster vs. Bulls Oct 30 Bulls -0.60

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.89 7.24 -0.30
Stade Rochelais 6.38 6.40 -0.00
Racing 92 4.44 3.42 1.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.52 4.07 -0.60
Stade Francais 3.25 2.62 0.60
Toulon 2.71 3.11 -0.40
Lyon 2.03 2.97 -0.90
Montpellier 1.67 2.09 -0.40
Clermont 1.14 1.47 -0.30
Castres Olympique 0.70 -0.39 1.10
Section Paloise 0.60 -0.44 1.00
Bayonne -1.31 -1.32 0.00
USA Perpignan -5.77 -3.64 -2.10
US Oyonnax -8.63 -10.00 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 US Oyonnax vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 02 21 – 27 -9.40 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bayonne Sep 03 37 – 0 6.70 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Sep 03 59 – 10 14.70 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Sep 03 40 – 10 3.40 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Sep 03 24 – 9 7.30 TRUE
6 Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais Sep 03 11 – 10 1.30 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Sep 04 22 – 17 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Oct 29 Bayonne 1.90
2 Lyon vs. Clermont Oct 29 Lyon 7.40
3 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Oct 29 Montpellier 3.70
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Oct 29 Stade Rochelais 12.20
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 29 Stade Toulousain 9.90
6 Toulon vs. US Oyonnax Oct 29 Toulon 17.80
7 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Oct 29 USA Perpignan 0.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 7.09 6.46 0.60
Leicester Tigers 4.15 6.13 -2.00
Exeter Chiefs 3.38 -0.89 4.30
Bristol 3.06 1.00 2.10
Harlequins 2.46 1.93 0.50
Northampton Saints 1.94 2.66 -0.70
Saracens 0.53 6.82 -6.30
Bath -0.28 -1.26 1.00
Gloucester -1.45 -1.45 0.00
Newcastle Falcons -10.13 -10.63 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Oct 21 14 – 18 -2.30 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Oct 22 27 – 33 7.20 FALSE
3 Saracens vs. Bath Oct 22 16 – 25 10.10 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 22 17 – 24 5.20 FALSE
5 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 23 22 – 14 4.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Saracens Oct 28 Gloucester 4.00
2 Bristol vs. Harlequins Oct 28 Bristol 6.60
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Oct 29 Exeter Chiefs 2.30
4 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 29 Bath 1.60
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Oct 30 Northampton Saints -6.10

 

Predictions for the RWC 2023 Final

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Team Ratings for the RWC 2023 Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 21.78 16.32 5.50
Ireland 18.62 15.46 3.20
South Africa 17.82 16.35 1.50
France 14.82 12.48 2.30
Scotland 8.28 6.81 1.50
England 7.15 4.22 2.90
Wales 3.17 0.75 2.40
Argentina 2.66 1.23 1.40
Australia 1.84 2.63 -0.80
Fiji 0.01 0.58 -0.60
Samoa -0.39 -0.50 0.10
Georgia -4.61 -2.56 -2.00
Japan -5.54 -6.10 0.60
Italy -9.63 -8.84 -0.80
Tonga -12.03 -11.38 -0.70
Portugal -13.18 -13.61 0.40
Uruguay -16.17 -15.47 -0.70
Namibia -18.85 -13.18 -5.70
Chile -19.97 -15.13 -4.80
Romania -22.74 -17.02 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Argentina vs. New Zealand Oct 21 6 – 44 -17.30 TRUE
2 England vs. South Africa Oct 21 15 – 16 -11.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the RWC 2023 Final

Here are the predictions for the RWC 2023 Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Argentina vs. England Oct 28 England -4.50
2 New Zealand vs. South Africa Oct 29 New Zealand 4.00

 

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