There are other issues with this graph (from the ABC’s Dan Ziffer): these are components of inflation rather than causes, why ‘beyond 3%’? The big issue, though, is the pie, where the positive number add to 104% and then there’s the negative 4%.
You can’t have negative numbers in a pie chart; that isn’t how pies work. If you combine 104% of a pie and 4% of an anti-pie, you’ll end up on this list
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 12.99 | 12.99 | -0.00 |
| Storm | 11.21 | 11.21 | 0.00 |
| Rabbitohs | 9.35 | 9.35 | -0.00 |
| Roosters | 7.64 | 7.64 | -0.00 |
| Eels | 6.78 | 6.78 | 0.00 |
| Cowboys | 6.23 | 6.23 | 0.00 |
| Sharks | 4.50 | 4.50 | -0.00 |
| Raiders | 1.98 | 1.98 | 0.00 |
| Dragons | -2.73 | -2.73 | -0.00 |
| Sea Eagles | -5.26 | -5.26 | -0.00 |
| Broncos | -5.92 | -5.92 | 0.00 |
| Titans | -6.32 | -6.32 | -0.00 |
| Bulldogs | -8.29 | -8.29 | -0.00 |
| Knights | -9.53 | -9.53 | -0.00 |
| Dolphins | -10.00 | -10.00 | 0.00 |
| Warriors | -11.12 | -11.12 | 0.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -13.52 | -13.52 | -0.00 |
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Storm | Mar 02 | Storm | -1.40 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Knights | Mar 03 | Warriors | 4.40 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Broncos | Mar 03 | Panthers | 21.90 |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs | Mar 04 | Sea Eagles | 6.00 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Raiders | Mar 04 | Cowboys | 7.20 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 04 | Rabbitohs | -1.90 |
| 7 | Dolphins vs. Roosters | Mar 05 | Roosters | -14.60 |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Titans | Mar 05 | Titans | -4.20 |
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 16.51 | 16.79 | -0.30 |
| Munster | 10.87 | 9.78 | 1.10 |
| Ulster | 9.48 | 9.27 | 0.20 |
| Stormers | 8.47 | 7.14 | 1.30 |
| Bulls | 6.05 | 7.84 | -1.80 |
| Sharks | 5.22 | 6.95 | -1.70 |
| Glasgow | 3.48 | -0.00 | 3.50 |
| Connacht | 2.32 | -1.60 | 3.90 |
| Edinburgh | 0.61 | 3.58 | -3.00 |
| Scarlets | -2.64 | -1.23 | -1.40 |
| Ospreys | -2.82 | -0.83 | -2.00 |
| Benetton | -4.20 | -3.68 | -0.50 |
| Lions | -4.63 | -1.74 | -2.90 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -4.78 | -7.42 | 2.60 |
| Dragons | -10.48 | -11.81 | 1.30 |
| Zebre | -17.41 | -16.99 | -0.40 |
So far there have been 112 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions vs. Glasgow | Feb 26 | 35 – 41 | -3.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Sharks vs. Ulster | Feb 26 | 24 – 31 | 1.10 | FALSE |
Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glasgow vs. Zebre | Mar 04 | Glasgow | 25.40 |
| 2 | Munster vs. Scarlets | Mar 04 | Munster | 18.00 |
| 3 | Stormers vs. Sharks | Mar 05 | Stormers | 7.20 |
| 4 | Bulls vs. Lions | Mar 05 | Bulls | 14.70 |
| 5 | Edinburgh vs. Leinster | Mar 05 | Leinster | -11.40 |
| 6 | Ospreys vs. Benetton | Mar 05 | Ospreys | 5.90 |
| 7 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Ulster | Mar 05 | Ulster | -9.80 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Connacht | Mar 05 | Connacht | -8.30 |
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.56 | 6.34 | 1.20 |
| La Rochelle | 6.94 | 6.88 | 0.10 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.10 | 5.27 | -0.20 |
| Stade Francais | 4.44 | -1.05 | 5.50 |
| Toulon | 3.91 | 4.09 | -0.20 |
| Lyon | 3.56 | 3.10 | 0.50 |
| Montpellier | 3.22 | 4.18 | -1.00 |
| Racing 92 | 2.98 | 4.86 | -1.90 |
| Clermont | 1.96 | 4.05 | -2.10 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | 0.51 | -4.26 | 4.80 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.46 | 2.87 | -3.30 |
| Section Paloise | -2.26 | -2.12 | -0.10 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.65 | -2.75 | -1.90 |
| Brive | -5.56 | -4.20 | -1.40 |
So far there have been 133 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Castres Olympique | Feb 26 | 41 – 10 | 5.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan | Feb 26 | 43 – 7 | 14.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Brive | Feb 26 | 32 – 16 | 19.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Lyon vs. Racing 92 | Feb 26 | 45 – 11 | 5.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Montpellier | Feb 26 | 27 – 17 | 7.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise | Feb 26 | 34 – 10 | 15.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Clermont vs. Toulon | Feb 27 | 36 – 21 | 3.80 | TRUE |
Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. Bordeaux Begles | Mar 05 | Bordeaux Begles | -4.20 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Lyon | Mar 05 | Castres Olympique | 2.50 |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Clermont | Mar 05 | Montpellier | 7.80 |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. La Rochelle | Mar 05 | La Rochelle | -2.70 |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Stade Francais | Mar 05 | Toulon | 6.00 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Mar 05 | USA Perpignan | 1.30 |
| 7 | Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain | Mar 06 | Racing 92 | 1.90 |
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sale Sharks | 4.79 | 4.14 | 0.70 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.72 | 7.93 | -5.20 |
| Northampton Saints | 2.33 | 3.99 | -1.70 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 2.12 | 3.67 | -1.50 |
| London Irish | 1.98 | -1.65 | 3.60 |
| Gloucester | 1.50 | 5.92 | -4.40 |
| Saracens | 1.50 | -5.00 | 6.50 |
| Harlequins | 0.85 | 3.92 | -3.10 |
| Wasps | -0.18 | 0.77 | -1.00 |
| Bristol | -2.25 | -2.43 | 0.20 |
| Bath | -5.94 | -9.15 | 3.20 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -6.66 | -8.76 | 2.10 |
| Worcester Warriors | -11.69 | -12.27 | 0.60 |
So far there have been 87 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Bristol | Feb 25 | 13 – 15 | 1.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons | Feb 26 | 29 – 23 | 13.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester | Feb 26 | 41 – 34 | 5.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers | Feb 26 | 22 – 25 | 4.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks | Feb 27 | 24 – 22 | 1.80 | TRUE |
Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Northampton Saints | Mar 04 | Northampton Saints | -0.10 |
| 2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Bath | Mar 05 | Leicester Tigers | 13.20 |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs | Mar 05 | Harlequins | 3.20 |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish | Mar 06 | London Irish | -4.10 |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Saracens | Mar 06 | Sale Sharks | 7.80 |
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 16.79 | 17.95 | -1.20 |
| Blues | 13.58 | 12.34 | 1.20 |
| Hurricanes | 10.71 | 9.59 | 1.10 |
| Chiefs | 9.97 | 8.81 | 1.20 |
| Brumbies | 6.67 | 6.64 | 0.00 |
| Highlanders | 3.81 | 5.04 | -1.20 |
| Reds | 0.78 | 1.89 | -1.10 |
| Waratahs | -2.53 | -2.50 | -0.00 |
| Western Force | -5.34 | -5.54 | 0.20 |
| Rebels | -6.39 | -6.19 | -0.20 |
| Moana Pasifika | -9.32 | -8.91 | -0.40 |
| Fijian Drua | -10.09 | -10.50 | 0.40 |
So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Chiefs | Feb 24 | 10 – 31 | 12.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Brumbies | Feb 24 | 25 – 31 | -5.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua | Feb 25 | 34 – 36 | 7.10 | FALSE |
| 4 | Highlanders vs. Blues | Feb 25 | 20 – 60 | -3.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Reds vs. Hurricanes | Feb 25 | 13 – 47 | -2.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Western Force vs. Rebels | Feb 25 | 34 – 27 | 4.20 | TRUE |
Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Highlanders | Mar 03 | Crusaders | 13.00 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Hurricanes | Mar 03 | Hurricanes | -11.60 |
| 3 | Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs | Mar 04 | Chiefs | -19.30 |
| 4 | Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs | Mar 04 | Waratahs | -7.60 |
| 5 | Blues vs. Brumbies | Mar 05 | Blues | 6.90 |
| 6 | Western Force vs. Reds | Mar 05 | Reds | -6.10 |
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 16.51 | 16.79 | -0.30 |
| Munster | 10.87 | 9.78 | 1.10 |
| Ulster | 9.05 | 9.27 | -0.20 |
| Stormers | 8.47 | 7.14 | 1.30 |
| Bulls | 6.05 | 7.84 | -1.80 |
| Sharks | 5.66 | 6.95 | -1.30 |
| Glasgow | 3.18 | -0.00 | 3.20 |
| Connacht | 2.32 | -1.60 | 3.90 |
| Edinburgh | 0.61 | 3.58 | -3.00 |
| Scarlets | -2.64 | -1.23 | -1.40 |
| Ospreys | -2.82 | -0.83 | -2.00 |
| Benetton | -4.20 | -3.68 | -0.50 |
| Lions | -4.33 | -1.74 | -2.60 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -4.78 | -7.42 | 2.60 |
| Dragons | -10.48 | -11.81 | 1.30 |
| Zebre | -17.41 | -16.99 | -0.40 |
So far there have been 110 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glasgow vs. Ulster | Feb 18 | 17 – 11 | -2.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Munster vs. Ospreys | Feb 18 | 58 – 3 | 15.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lions vs. Sharks | Feb 19 | 7 – 29 | -4.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bulls vs. Stormers | Feb 19 | 19 – 23 | 3.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Zebre vs. Connacht | Feb 19 | 34 – 57 | -14.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Benetton | Feb 19 | 30 – 13 | 2.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Scarlets vs. Edinburgh | Feb 19 | 42 – 14 | -0.80 | FALSE |
| 8 | Leinster vs. Dragons | Feb 19 | 43 – 14 | 32.10 | TRUE |
Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Ulster | Feb 26 | Sharks | 1.10 |
| 2 | Lions vs. Glasgow | Feb 26 | Glasgow | -3.00 |
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.14 | 6.34 | 0.80 |
| La Rochelle | 7.11 | 6.88 | 0.20 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.44 | 5.27 | -0.80 |
| Stade Francais | 4.31 | -1.05 | 5.40 |
| Toulon | 4.30 | 4.09 | 0.20 |
| Racing 92 | 3.85 | 4.86 | -1.00 |
| Montpellier | 3.34 | 4.18 | -0.80 |
| Lyon | 2.70 | 3.10 | -0.40 |
| Clermont | 1.57 | 4.05 | -2.50 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.32 | 2.87 | -2.50 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -0.26 | -4.26 | 4.00 |
| Section Paloise | -1.83 | -2.12 | 0.30 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.99 | -2.75 | -1.20 |
| Brive | -5.73 | -4.20 | -1.50 |
So far there have been 126 matches played, 89 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Francais | Feb 19 | 29 – 26 | 1.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle | Feb 19 | 17 – 32 | 0.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Montpellier | Feb 19 | 31 – 21 | 5.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Brive | Feb 19 | 34 – 24 | 16.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise | Feb 19 | 49 – 29 | 3.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain | Feb 19 | 17 – 6 | 2.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont | Feb 20 | 18 – 9 | 9.40 | TRUE |
Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Castres Olympique | Feb 26 | Aviron Bayonnais | 5.90 |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan | Feb 26 | Bordeaux Begles | 14.90 |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Brive | Feb 26 | La Rochelle | 19.30 |
| 4 | Lyon vs. Racing 92 | Feb 26 | Lyon | 5.30 |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Montpellier | Feb 26 | Stade Francais | 7.50 |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise | Feb 26 | Stade Toulousain | 15.50 |
| 7 | Clermont vs. Toulon | Feb 27 | Clermont | 3.80 |
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 17.95 | 17.95 | -0.00 |
| Blues | 12.34 | 12.34 | -0.00 |
| Hurricanes | 9.59 | 9.59 | -0.00 |
| Chiefs | 8.81 | 8.81 | 0.00 |
| Brumbies | 6.64 | 6.64 | -0.00 |
| Highlanders | 5.04 | 5.04 | -0.00 |
| Reds | 1.89 | 1.89 | 0.00 |
| Waratahs | -2.50 | -2.50 | 0.00 |
| Western Force | -5.54 | -5.54 | -0.00 |
| Rebels | -6.19 | -6.19 | 0.00 |
| Moana Pasifika | -8.91 | -8.91 | -0.00 |
| Fijian Drua | -10.50 | -10.50 | 0.00 |
Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Chiefs | Feb 24 | Crusaders | 12.60 |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Brumbies | Feb 24 | Brumbies | -5.60 |
| 3 | Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua | Feb 25 | Moana Pasifika | 7.10 |
| 4 | Highlanders vs. Blues | Feb 25 | Blues | -3.80 |
| 5 | Reds vs. Hurricanes | Feb 25 | Hurricanes | -2.20 |
| 6 | Western Force vs. Rebels | Feb 25 | Western Force | 4.20 |
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sale Sharks | 4.81 | 4.14 | 0.70 |
| London Irish | 2.44 | -1.65 | 4.10 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.27 | 7.93 | -5.70 |
| Northampton Saints | 2.17 | 3.99 | -1.80 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 2.10 | 3.67 | -1.60 |
| Saracens | 1.95 | -5.00 | 7.00 |
| Gloucester | 1.66 | 5.92 | -4.30 |
| Harlequins | 0.85 | 3.92 | -3.10 |
| Wasps | -0.18 | 0.77 | -1.00 |
| Bristol | -2.52 | -2.43 | -0.10 |
| Bath | -5.67 | -9.15 | 3.50 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -7.11 | -8.76 | 1.60 |
| Worcester Warriors | -11.69 | -12.27 | 0.60 |
So far there have been 82 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons | Feb 18 | 30 – 12 | 7.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Harlequins | Feb 18 | 28 – 26 | 5.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bath vs. London Irish | Feb 19 | 10 – 25 | -2.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks | Feb 19 | 38 – 34 | 1.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens | Feb 20 | 24 – 18 | 4.60 | TRUE |
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Bristol | Feb 25 | Bath | 1.30 |
| 2 | Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons | Feb 26 | Saracens | 13.60 |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester | Feb 26 | Northampton Saints | 5.00 |
| 4 | London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers | Feb 26 | London Irish | 4.70 |
| 5 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks | Feb 27 | Exeter Chiefs | 1.80 |
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