October 3, 2023

RWC 2023 Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 19.21 16.32 2.90
Ireland 18.17 15.46 2.70
South Africa 17.93 16.35 1.60
France 14.26 12.48 1.80
Scotland 8.89 6.81 2.10
England 7.25 4.22 3.00
Wales 3.01 0.75 2.30
Argentina 2.61 1.23 1.40
Australia 1.84 2.63 -0.80
Fiji 0.67 0.58 0.10
Samoa -0.96 -0.50 -0.50
Georgia -3.84 -2.56 -1.30
Japan -5.21 -6.10 0.90
Italy -8.65 -8.84 0.20
Tonga -12.59 -11.38 -1.20
Portugal -13.90 -13.61 -0.30
Uruguay -14.67 -15.47 0.80
Namibia -18.85 -13.18 -5.70
Chile -19.97 -15.13 -4.80
Romania -22.18 -17.02 -5.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 84.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Uruguay vs. Namibia Sep 27 36 – 26 3.10 TRUE
2 Japan vs. Samoa Sep 28 28 – 22 -5.40 FALSE
3 New Zealand vs. Italy Sep 29 96 – 17 23.90 TRUE
4 Argentina vs. Chile Sep 30 59 – 5 19.90 TRUE
5 Fiji vs. Georgia Sep 30 17 – 12 4.40 TRUE
6 Scotland vs. Romania Sep 30 84 – 0 27.00 TRUE
7 Australia vs. Portugal Oct 01 34 – 14 14.90 TRUE
8 South Africa vs. Tonga Oct 01 49 – 18 30.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 New Zealand vs. Uruguay Oct 05 New Zealand 33.90
2 France vs. Italy Oct 06 France 29.90
3 Wales vs. Georgia Oct 07 Wales 6.80
4 England vs. Samoa Oct 07 England 8.20
5 Ireland vs. Scotland Oct 07 Ireland 9.30
6 Japan vs. Argentina Oct 08 Argentina -7.80
7 Fiji vs. Portugal Oct 08 Fiji 14.60
8 Tonga vs. Romania Oct 08 Tonga 9.60

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 12.13 8.72 3.40
Canterbury 6.95 9.44 -2.50
Waikato 4.58 3.71 0.90
Bay of Plenty 4.50 4.55 -0.10
Hawke’s Bay 4.46 5.12 -0.70
Taranaki 3.44 -2.98 6.40
Tasman 3.12 2.20 0.90
North Harbour 3.06 7.75 -4.70
Auckland 2.76 2.15 0.60
Otago -3.26 0.62 -3.90
Northland -4.29 -3.92 -0.40
Counties Manukau -5.22 -7.44 2.20
Southland -10.05 -12.27 2.20
Manawatu -18.73 -14.18 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Auckland vs. Northland Sep 29 27 – 26 11.70 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sep 30 37 – 35 0.20 TRUE
3 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 30 18 – 20 12.80 FALSE
4 Taranaki vs. North Harbour Sep 30 54 – 21 -1.00 FALSE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman Oct 01 41 – 12 0.60 TRUE
6 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Oct 01 38 – 22 3.00 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Southland Oct 01 12 – 37 -2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Auckland Oct 06 Canterbury 7.20
2 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 07 Wellington 10.60
3 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 07 Taranaki 3.30
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 08 Bay of Plenty 3.00

 

September 28, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 13.22 8.72 4.50
Canterbury 7.14 9.44 -2.30
North Harbour 5.27 7.75 -2.50
Tasman 5.01 2.20 2.80
Waikato 4.39 3.71 0.70
Auckland 3.59 2.15 1.40
Hawke’s Bay 3.38 5.12 -1.70
Bay of Plenty 2.61 4.55 -1.90
Taranaki 1.23 -2.98 4.20
Otago -4.23 0.62 -4.90
Counties Manukau -4.25 -7.44 3.20
Northland -5.11 -3.92 -1.20
Southland -11.59 -12.27 0.70
Manawatu -17.18 -14.18 -3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 27 23 – 25 -12.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Auckland vs. Northland Sep 29 Auckland 11.70
2 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sep 30 Waikato 0.20
3 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 30 Wellington 12.80
4 Taranaki vs. North Harbour Sep 30 North Harbour -1.00
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman Oct 01 Bay of Plenty 0.60
6 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Oct 01 Otago 3.00
7 Manawatu vs. Southland Oct 01 Southland -2.60

 

September 25, 2023

RWC 2023 Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Ireland 18.17 15.46 2.70
South Africa 17.89 16.35 1.50
New Zealand 17.23 16.32 0.90
France 14.26 12.48 1.80
England 7.25 4.22 3.00
Scotland 6.86 6.81 0.10
Wales 3.01 0.75 2.30
Australia 1.43 2.63 -1.20
Argentina 1.27 1.23 0.00
Fiji 0.62 0.58 0.00
Samoa -0.41 -0.50 0.10
Georgia -3.79 -2.56 -1.20
Japan -5.77 -6.10 0.30
Italy -6.67 -8.84 2.20
Tonga -12.55 -11.38 -1.20
Portugal -13.49 -13.61 0.10
Uruguay -15.22 -15.47 0.20
Namibia -18.29 -13.18 -5.10
Chile -18.62 -15.13 -3.50
Romania -20.15 -17.02 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Italy vs. Uruguay Sep 20 38 – 17 7.30 TRUE
2 France vs. Namibia Sep 21 96 – 0 35.30 TRUE
3 Argentina vs. Samoa Sep 22 19 – 10 0.30 TRUE
4 Georgia vs. Portugal Sep 23 18 – 18 10.80 FALSE
5 England vs. Chile Sep 23 71 – 0 22.30 TRUE
6 South Africa vs. Ireland Sep 23 8 – 13 0.60 FALSE
7 Scotland vs. Tonga Sep 24 45 – 17 18.40 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Australia Sep 24 40 – 6 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Uruguay vs. Namibia Sep 27 Uruguay 3.10
2 Japan vs. Samoa Sep 28 Samoa -5.40
3 New Zealand vs. Italy Sep 29 New Zealand 23.90
4 Argentina vs. Chile Sep 30 Argentina 19.90
5 Fiji vs. Georgia Sep 30 Fiji 4.40
6 Scotland vs. Romania Sep 30 Scotland 27.00
7 Australia vs. Portugal Oct 01 Australia 14.90
8 South Africa vs. Tonga Oct 01 South Africa 30.40

 

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NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 15.30 12.99 2.30
Broncos 8.50 -5.92 14.40
Storm 6.15 11.21 -5.10
Roosters 3.08 7.64 -4.60
Sharks 2.94 4.50 -1.60
Cowboys 2.47 6.23 -3.80
Knights 1.84 -9.53 11.40
Rabbitohs 0.87 9.35 -8.50
Eels 0.14 6.78 -6.60
Warriors -0.07 -11.12 11.10
Sea Eagles -0.48 -5.26 4.80
Raiders -4.31 1.98 -6.30
Dragons -6.93 -2.73 -4.20
Dolphins -7.09 -10.00 2.90
Titans -7.89 -6.32 -1.60
Wests Tigers -13.15 -13.52 0.40
Bulldogs -13.35 -8.29 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 212 matches played, 135 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Warriors Sep 22 42 – 12 12.40 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Storm Sep 23 38 – 4 9.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Broncos Oct 01 Panthers 9.80

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 13.22 8.72 4.50
Canterbury 7.14 9.44 -2.30
North Harbour 5.27 7.75 -2.50
Tasman 5.01 2.20 2.80
Waikato 4.39 3.71 0.70
Auckland 3.59 2.15 1.40
Bay of Plenty 3.44 4.55 -1.10
Hawke’s Bay 3.38 5.12 -1.70
Taranaki 1.23 -2.98 4.20
Otago -4.23 0.62 -4.90
Counties Manukau -4.25 -7.44 3.20
Northland -5.11 -3.92 -1.20
Southland -12.43 -12.27 -0.20
Manawatu -17.18 -14.18 -3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 22 26 – 32 -5.40 TRUE
2 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Sep 23 46 – 19 14.00 TRUE
3 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 23 7 – 33 -10.60 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Tasman Sep 23 30 – 28 6.00 TRUE
5 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sep 23 18 – 16 0.30 TRUE
6 Wellington vs. North Harbour Sep 24 26 – 6 9.30 TRUE
7 Waikato vs. Otago Sep 24 47 – 7 7.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 27 Bay of Plenty -12.90

 

September 18, 2023

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.87 12.99 0.90
Storm 7.58 11.21 -3.60
Broncos 7.40 -5.92 13.30
Roosters 3.08 7.64 -4.60
Sharks 2.94 4.50 -1.60
Cowboys 2.47 6.23 -3.80
Knights 1.84 -9.53 11.40
Warriors 1.02 -11.12 12.10
Rabbitohs 0.87 9.35 -8.50
Eels 0.14 6.78 -6.60
Sea Eagles -0.48 -5.26 4.80
Raiders -4.31 1.98 -6.30
Dragons -6.93 -2.73 -4.20
Dolphins -7.09 -10.00 2.90
Titans -7.89 -6.32 -1.60
Wests Tigers -13.15 -13.52 0.40
Bulldogs -13.35 -8.29 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 210 matches played, 133 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Roosters Sep 15 18 – 13 8.20 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Knights Sep 16 40 – 10 2.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Warriors Sep 22 Broncos 12.40
2 Panthers vs. Storm Sep 23 Panthers 9.30

 

RWC 2023 Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
South Africa 18.34 16.35 2.00
Ireland 17.72 15.46 2.30
New Zealand 17.23 16.32 0.90
France 12.13 12.48 -0.40
Scotland 6.37 6.81 -0.40
England 5.46 4.22 1.20
Australia 2.81 2.63 0.20
Wales 1.63 0.75 0.90
Fiji 0.62 0.58 0.00
Argentina 0.57 1.23 -0.70
Samoa 0.29 -0.50 0.80
Georgia -3.25 -2.56 -0.70
Japan -5.77 -6.10 0.30
Italy -7.32 -8.84 1.50
Tonga -12.06 -11.38 -0.70
Portugal -14.03 -13.61 -0.40
Uruguay -14.57 -15.47 0.90
Namibia -16.15 -13.18 -3.00
Chile -16.83 -15.13 -1.70
Romania -20.15 -17.02 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 93.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 France vs. Uruguay Sep 14 27 – 12 35.50 TRUE
2 New Zealand vs. Namibia Sep 15 71 – 3 30.50 TRUE
3 Samoa vs. Chile Sep 16 43 – 10 15.50 TRUE
4 Wales vs. Portugal Sep 16 28 – 8 14.80 TRUE
5 Ireland vs. Tonga Sep 16 59 – 16 28.40 TRUE
6 South Africa vs. Romania Sep 17 76 – 0 35.40 TRUE
7 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 17 15 – 22 3.20 FALSE
8 England vs. Japan Sep 17 34 – 12 10.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Italy vs. Uruguay Sep 20 Italy 7.30
2 France vs. Namibia Sep 21 France 35.30
3 Argentina vs. Samoa Sep 22 Argentina 0.30
4 Georgia vs. Portugal Sep 23 Georgia 10.80
5 England vs. Chile Sep 23 England 22.30
6 South Africa vs. Ireland Sep 23 South Africa 0.60
7 Scotland vs. Tonga Sep 24 Scotland 18.40
8 Wales vs. Australia Sep 24 Australia -1.20

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 12.40 8.72 3.70
Canterbury 7.58 9.44 -1.90
North Harbour 6.09 7.75 -1.70
Tasman 4.57 2.20 2.40
Auckland 3.78 2.15 1.60
Bay of Plenty 3.38 4.55 -1.20
Waikato 2.26 3.71 -1.50
Hawke’s Bay 2.25 5.12 -2.90
Taranaki 1.04 -2.98 4.00
Otago -2.10 0.62 -2.70
Northland -5.05 -3.92 -1.10
Counties Manukau -5.22 -7.44 2.20
Southland -11.30 -12.27 1.00
Manawatu -16.21 -14.18 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Sep 15 57 – 7 17.20 TRUE
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Sep 16 12 – 27 7.60 FALSE
3 North Harbour vs. Northland Sep 16 50 – 31 12.80 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Taranaki Sep 16 17 – 36 2.90 FALSE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Sep 17 14 – 26 -4.30 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 17 29 – 14 23.80 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 17 27 – 17 13.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 22 Bay of Plenty -5.40
2 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Sep 23 Counties Manukau 14.00
3 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 23 Hawke’s Bay -10.60
4 Canterbury vs. Tasman Sep 23 Canterbury 6.00
5 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sep 23 Taranaki 0.30
6 Wellington vs. North Harbour Sep 24 Wellington 9.30
7 Waikato vs. Otago Sep 24 Waikato 7.40

 

September 14, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 11.55 8.72 2.80
Canterbury 8.55 9.44 -0.90
North Harbour 5.41 7.75 -2.30
Auckland 5.34 2.15 3.20
Tasman 4.97 2.20 2.80
Bay of Plenty 4.23 4.55 -0.30
Waikato 0.70 3.71 -3.00
Hawke’s Bay 0.11 5.12 -5.00
Taranaki -0.47 -2.98 2.50
Otago -0.58 0.62 -1.20
Northland -4.36 -3.92 -0.40
Counties Manukau -5.61 -7.44 1.80
Southland -12.27 -12.27 0.00
Manawatu -14.07 -14.18 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Sep 13 31 – 29 -13.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Sep 15 Hawke’s Bay 17.20
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Sep 16 Auckland 7.60
3 North Harbour vs. Northland Sep 16 North Harbour 12.80
4 Otago vs. Taranaki Sep 16 Otago 2.90
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Sep 17 Wellington -4.30
6 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 17 Canterbury 23.80
7 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 17 Tasman 13.60

 

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