September 5, 2023

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.38 12.99 0.40
Storm 9.45 11.21 -1.80
Broncos 5.89 -5.92 11.80
Knights 4.12 -9.53 13.60
Sharks 3.53 4.50 -1.00
Cowboys 2.47 6.23 -3.80
Roosters 2.13 7.64 -5.50
Rabbitohs 0.87 9.35 -8.50
Eels 0.14 6.78 -6.60
Warriors -0.06 -11.12 11.10
Sea Eagles -0.48 -5.26 4.80
Raiders -5.02 1.98 -7.00
Dragons -6.93 -2.73 -4.20
Dolphins -7.09 -10.00 2.90
Titans -7.89 -6.32 -1.60
Wests Tigers -13.15 -13.52 0.40
Bulldogs -13.35 -8.29 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 204 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 31 22 – 32 0.90 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Sep 01 54 – 12 12.40 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 01 12 – 26 4.00 FALSE
4 Dolphins vs. Warriors Sep 02 34 – 10 -4.20 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Cowboys Sep 02 44 – 12 11.40 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Knights Sep 02 12 – 32 -6.30 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Bulldogs Sep 03 34 – 30 9.70 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Raiders Sep 03 24 – 6 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 08 Storm -0.60
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Sep 09 Panthers 19.40
3 Sharks vs. Roosters Sep 09 Sharks 4.40
4 Knights vs. Raiders Sep 10 Knights 12.10

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.89 7.24 -0.30
Stade Rochelais 6.38 6.40 -0.00
Racing 92 4.44 3.42 1.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.52 4.07 -0.60
Stade Francais 3.25 2.62 0.60
Toulon 2.71 3.11 -0.40
Lyon 2.03 2.97 -0.90
Montpellier 1.67 2.09 -0.40
Clermont 1.14 1.47 -0.30
Castres Olympique 0.70 -0.39 1.10
Section Paloise 0.60 -0.44 1.00
Bayonne -1.31 -1.32 0.00
USA Perpignan -5.77 -3.64 -2.10
US Oyonnax -8.63 -10.00 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 US Oyonnax vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 02 21 – 27 -9.40 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bayonne Sep 03 37 – 0 6.70 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Sep 03 59 – 10 14.70 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Sep 03 40 – 10 3.40 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Sep 03 24 – 9 7.30 TRUE
6 Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais Sep 03 11 – 10 1.30 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Sep 04 22 – 17 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Oct 29 Bayonne 1.90
2 Lyon vs. Clermont Oct 29 Lyon 7.40
3 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Oct 29 Montpellier 3.70
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Oct 29 Stade Rochelais 12.20
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 29 Stade Toulousain 9.90
6 Toulon vs. US Oyonnax Oct 29 Toulon 17.80
7 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Oct 29 USA Perpignan 0.10

 

September 4, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 10.72 8.72 2.00
Canterbury 10.44 9.44 1.00
North Harbour 5.95 7.75 -1.80
Auckland 4.57 2.15 2.40
Tasman 4.18 2.20 2.00
Bay of Plenty 3.96 4.55 -0.60
Waikato 1.53 3.71 -2.20
Hawke’s Bay 0.38 5.12 -4.70
Taranaki 0.31 -2.98 3.30
Otago -2.25 0.62 -2.90
Northland -3.60 -3.92 0.30
Counties Manukau -6.94 -7.44 0.50
Southland -12.07 -12.27 0.20
Manawatu -13.71 -14.18 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 39 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 01 44 – 21 -4.70 FALSE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Sep 02 38 – 14 6.70 TRUE
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Sep 02 29 – 28 15.20 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Waikato Sep 02 39 – 17 5.00 TRUE
5 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 56 – 25 18.80 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Auckland Sep 03 13 – 41 -11.20 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. Manawatu Sep 03 58 – 19 18.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Otago Sep 06 North Harbour 11.20

 

August 31, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 27

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Team Ratings for Round 27

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.14 12.99 -0.90
Storm 8.71 11.21 -2.50
Broncos 6.63 -5.92 12.60
Cowboys 3.70 6.23 -2.50
Knights 3.22 -9.53 12.70
Sharks 2.98 4.50 -1.50
Rabbitohs 1.98 9.35 -7.40
Warriors 1.53 -11.12 12.70
Roosters 1.03 7.64 -6.60
Eels 0.14 6.78 -6.60
Sea Eagles -2.14 -5.26 3.10
Raiders -4.46 1.98 -6.40
Dragons -6.03 -2.73 -3.30
Titans -7.26 -6.32 -0.90
Dolphins -8.69 -10.00 1.30
Wests Tigers -11.49 -13.52 2.00
Bulldogs -13.98 -8.29 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 124 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Eels Aug 24 18 – 32 18.60 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Aug 25 18 – 6 14.00 TRUE
3 Dolphins vs. Cowboys Aug 25 10 – 34 -7.30 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Titans Aug 26 37 – 16 18.40 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 26 32 – 8 14.10 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Broncos Aug 26 18 – 29 -7.30 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 27 24 – 42 -7.40 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Sharks Aug 27 32 – 6 0.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 27

Here are the predictions for Round 27. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 31 Broncos 0.90
2 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Sep 01 Sea Eagles 12.40
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 01 Rabbitohs 4.00
4 Dolphins vs. Warriors Sep 02 Warriors -4.20
5 Panthers vs. Cowboys Sep 02 Panthers 11.40
6 Dragons vs. Knights Sep 02 Knights -6.30
7 Titans vs. Bulldogs Sep 03 Titans 9.70
8 Sharks vs. Raiders Sep 03 Sharks 10.40

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.05 7.24 -0.20
Stade Rochelais 6.37 6.40 -0.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.65 4.07 -0.40
Racing 92 3.43 3.42 0.00
Stade Francais 2.86 2.62 0.20
Lyon 2.84 2.97 -0.10
Toulon 2.58 3.11 -0.50
Montpellier 2.05 2.09 -0.00
Clermont 1.15 1.47 -0.30
Castres Olympique -0.21 -0.39 0.20
Section Paloise -0.21 -0.44 0.20
Bayonne -0.40 -1.32 0.90
USA Perpignan -4.76 -3.64 -1.10
US Oyonnax -8.80 -10.00 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Francais vs. US Oyonnax Aug 26 28 – 18 19.10 TRUE
2 Stade Rochelais vs. Lyon Aug 26 35 – 14 9.20 TRUE
3 Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique Aug 27 25 – 23 11.30 TRUE
4 Clermont vs. USA Perpignan Aug 27 38 – 14 11.60 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Aug 27 19 – 17 3.00 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Bayonne Aug 27 19 – 14 10.00 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Aug 28 38 – 13 10.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 US Oyonnax vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 02 Stade Toulousain -9.40
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bayonne Sep 03 Castres Olympique 6.70
3 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Sep 03 Racing 92 14.70
4 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Sep 03 Section Paloise 3.40
5 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Sep 03 Stade Francais 7.30
6 Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais Sep 03 Clermont 1.30
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Sep 04 Bordeaux Begles 7.60

 

August 30, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 11.50 9.44 2.10
Wellington 9.80 8.72 1.10
North Harbour 4.73 7.75 -3.00
Auckland 3.36 2.15 1.20
Waikato 2.76 3.71 -1.00
Bay of Plenty 2.72 4.55 -1.80
Tasman 2.71 2.20 0.50
Hawke’s Bay 2.23 5.12 -2.90
Taranaki -0.74 -2.98 2.20
Otago -1.01 0.62 -1.60
Northland -5.45 -3.92 -1.50
Counties Manukau -6.02 -7.44 1.40
Southland -10.86 -12.27 1.40
Manawatu -12.25 -14.18 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Auckland vs. Manawatu Aug 30 31 – 33 21.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 01 Hawke’s Bay -4.70
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Sep 02 Bay of Plenty 6.70
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Sep 02 Canterbury 15.20
4 North Harbour vs. Waikato Sep 02 North Harbour 5.00
5 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 Wellington 18.80
6 Southland vs. Auckland Sep 03 Auckland -11.20
7 Tasman vs. Manawatu Sep 03 Tasman 18.00

 

August 28, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 11.50 9.44 2.10
Wellington 9.80 8.72 1.10
Auckland 4.99 2.15 2.80
North Harbour 4.73 7.75 -3.00
Waikato 2.76 3.71 -1.00
Bay of Plenty 2.72 4.55 -1.80
Tasman 2.71 2.20 0.50
Hawke’s Bay 2.23 5.12 -2.90
Taranaki -0.74 -2.98 2.20
Otago -1.01 0.62 -1.60
Northland -5.45 -3.92 -1.50
Counties Manukau -6.02 -7.44 1.40
Southland -10.86 -12.27 1.40
Manawatu -13.88 -14.18 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 31 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Northland Aug 25 31 – 30 -7.20 FALSE
2 Auckland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 26 41 – 22 3.50 TRUE
3 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 26 26 – 29 0.30 FALSE
4 Otago vs. Southland Aug 26 31 – 21 13.70 TRUE
5 Canterbury vs. Wellington Aug 27 31 – 36 6.40 FALSE
6 Tasman vs. North Harbour Aug 27 20 – 15 -0.10 FALSE
7 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Aug 27 37 – 15 10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Auckland vs. Manawatu Aug 30 Auckland 21.90

 

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August 22, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.93 12.99 0.90
Storm 8.42 11.21 -2.80
Broncos 6.22 -5.92 12.10
Sharks 4.45 4.50 -0.10
Cowboys 2.65 6.23 -3.60
Rabbitohs 1.98 9.35 -7.40
Knights 1.75 -9.53 11.30
Warriors 1.75 -11.12 12.90
Roosters 0.34 7.64 -7.30
Eels -1.65 6.78 -8.40
Sea Eagles -2.86 -5.26 2.40
Raiders -4.05 1.98 -6.00
Dragons -6.25 -2.73 -3.50
Titans -6.97 -6.32 -0.70
Dolphins -7.64 -10.00 2.40
Wests Tigers -10.81 -13.52 2.70
Bulldogs -13.25 -8.29 -5.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 188 matches played, 117 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Sharks Aug 17 12 – 32 4.00 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Aug 18 29 – 22 11.60 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Roosters Aug 18 12 – 34 4.00 FALSE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins Aug 19 24 – 23 -0.50 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Panthers Aug 19 14 – 40 -16.60 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Storm Aug 19 28 – 38 -12.10 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Aug 20 29 – 10 0.50 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 20 36 – 24 12.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Eels Aug 24 Panthers 18.60
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Aug 25 Warriors 14.00
3 Dolphins vs. Cowboys Aug 25 Cowboys -7.30
4 Storm vs. Titans Aug 26 Storm 18.40
5 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 26 Roosters 14.10
6 Raiders vs. Broncos Aug 26 Broncos -7.30
7 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 27 Sea Eagles -7.40
8 Knights vs. Sharks Aug 27 Knights 0.30

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

I got caught by the early start to the Top 14, so my published predictions start from Round 2. You can see below the predictions for Round1.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.57 7.24 -0.70
Stade Rochelais 5.96 6.40 -0.40
Bordeaux Begles 4.11 4.07 0.00
Racing 92 3.38 3.42 -0.00
Stade Francais 3.32 2.62 0.70
Lyon 3.25 2.97 0.30
Toulon 2.83 3.11 -0.30
Montpellier 2.53 2.09 0.40
Clermont 0.73 1.47 -0.70
Section Paloise -0.16 -0.44 0.30
Bayonne -0.65 -1.32 0.70
Castres Olympique -0.67 -0.39 -0.30
USA Perpignan -4.34 -3.64 -0.70
US Oyonnax -9.26 -10.00 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Toulousain Aug 19 26 – 7 -2.10 FALSE
2 Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles Aug 19 23 – 18 5.90 TRUE
3 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais Aug 20 7 – 29 0.20 FALSE
4 US Oyonnax vs. Clermont Aug 20 36 – 17 -5.00 FALSE
5 Lyon vs. Toulon Aug 20 27 – 15 6.40 TRUE
6 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Aug 20 24 – 23 6.50 TRUE
7 Montpellier vs. Stade Rochelais Aug 21 26 – 15 2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Francais vs. US Oyonnax Aug 26 Stade Francais 19.10
2 Stade Rochelais vs. Lyon Aug 26 Stade Rochelais 9.20
3 Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique Aug 27 Bordeaux Begles 11.30
4 Clermont vs. USA Perpignan Aug 27 Clermont 11.60
5 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Aug 27 Section Paloise 3.00
6 Toulon vs. Bayonne Aug 27 Toulon 10.00
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Aug 28 Stade Toulousain 10.50

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 3

By

 

Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 12.37 9.44 2.90
Wellington 9.32 8.72 0.60
North Harbour 5.30 7.75 -2.50
Auckland 3.86 2.15 1.70
Hawke’s Bay 3.36 5.12 -1.80
Bay of Plenty 2.36 4.55 -2.20
Waikato 1.84 3.71 -1.90
Tasman 1.75 2.20 -0.50
Taranaki -0.38 -2.98 2.60
Otago -0.61 0.62 -1.20
Northland -4.55 -3.92 -0.60
Counties Manukau -5.11 -7.44 2.30
Southland -11.26 -12.27 1.00
Manawatu -14.79 -14.18 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 18 32 – 19 -7.30 FALSE
2 North Harbour vs. Auckland Aug 19 23 – 43 8.20 FALSE
3 Wellington vs. Southland Aug 19 39 – 17 24.00 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Aug 19 68 – 26 28.10 TRUE
5 Northland vs. Tasman Aug 19 32 – 5 -7.80 FALSE
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Aug 20 33 – 32 8.60 TRUE
7 Waikato vs. Taranaki Aug 20 17 – 29 8.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Tasman Aug 23 Wellington 10.60

 

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