October 26, 2023

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 7.09 6.46 0.60
Leicester Tigers 4.15 6.13 -2.00
Exeter Chiefs 3.38 -0.89 4.30
Bristol 3.06 1.00 2.10
Harlequins 2.46 1.93 0.50
Northampton Saints 1.94 2.66 -0.70
Saracens 0.53 6.82 -6.30
Bath -0.28 -1.26 1.00
Gloucester -1.45 -1.45 0.00
Newcastle Falcons -10.13 -10.63 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Oct 21 14 – 18 -2.30 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Oct 22 27 – 33 7.20 FALSE
3 Saracens vs. Bath Oct 22 16 – 25 10.10 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 22 17 – 24 5.20 FALSE
5 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 23 22 – 14 4.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Saracens Oct 28 Gloucester 4.00
2 Bristol vs. Harlequins Oct 28 Bristol 6.60
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Oct 29 Exeter Chiefs 2.30
4 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 29 Bath 1.60
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Oct 30 Northampton Saints -6.10

 

Predictions for the RWC 2023 Final

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Team Ratings for the RWC 2023 Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 21.78 16.32 5.50
Ireland 18.62 15.46 3.20
South Africa 17.82 16.35 1.50
France 14.82 12.48 2.30
Scotland 8.28 6.81 1.50
England 7.15 4.22 2.90
Wales 3.17 0.75 2.40
Argentina 2.66 1.23 1.40
Australia 1.84 2.63 -0.80
Fiji 0.01 0.58 -0.60
Samoa -0.39 -0.50 0.10
Georgia -4.61 -2.56 -2.00
Japan -5.54 -6.10 0.60
Italy -9.63 -8.84 -0.80
Tonga -12.03 -11.38 -0.70
Portugal -13.18 -13.61 0.40
Uruguay -16.17 -15.47 -0.70
Namibia -18.85 -13.18 -5.70
Chile -19.97 -15.13 -4.80
Romania -22.74 -17.02 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Argentina vs. New Zealand Oct 21 6 – 44 -17.30 TRUE
2 England vs. South Africa Oct 21 15 – 16 -11.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the RWC 2023 Final

Here are the predictions for the RWC 2023 Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Argentina vs. England Oct 28 England -4.50
2 New Zealand vs. South Africa Oct 29 New Zealand 4.00

 

October 16, 2023

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

Unfortunately I missed Round 1. I have been travelling and lacking internet access at times.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 6.02 6.46 -0.40
Leicester Tigers 5.23 6.13 -0.90
Exeter Chiefs 3.75 -0.89 4.60
Northampton Saints 3.10 2.66 0.40
Saracens 2.18 6.82 -4.60
Harlequins 2.09 1.93 0.20
Bristol 1.90 1.00 0.90
Gloucester -1.62 -1.45 -0.20
Bath -1.93 -1.26 -0.70
Newcastle Falcons -9.96 -10.63 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 14 25 – 14 0.90 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Oct 14 65 – 10 -1.70 FALSE
3 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 15 34 – 26 15.40 TRUE
4 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Oct 15 29 – 28 2.60 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Oct 15 20 – 15 9.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Oct 21 Gloucester -2.30
2 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Oct 22 Northampton Saints 7.20
3 Saracens vs. Bath Oct 22 Saracens 10.10
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 22 Leicester Tigers 5.20
5 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 23 Harlequins 4.30

 

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Predictions for the RWC 2023 Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the RWC 2023 Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 20.88 16.32 4.60
Ireland 18.62 15.46 3.20
South Africa 18.36 16.35 2.00
France 14.82 12.48 2.30
Scotland 8.28 6.81 1.50
England 6.62 4.22 2.40
Argentina 3.56 1.23 2.30
Wales 3.17 0.75 2.40
Australia 1.84 2.63 -0.80
Fiji 0.01 0.58 -0.60
Samoa -0.39 -0.50 0.10
Georgia -4.61 -2.56 -2.00
Japan -5.54 -6.10 0.60
Italy -9.63 -8.84 -0.80
Tonga -12.03 -11.38 -0.70
Portugal -13.18 -13.61 0.40
Uruguay -16.17 -15.47 -0.70
Namibia -18.85 -13.18 -5.70
Chile -19.97 -15.13 -4.80
Romania -22.74 -17.02 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ireland vs. New Zealand Oct 15 24 – 28 -1.90 TRUE
2 Wales vs. Argentina Oct 15 17 – 29 0.80 FALSE
3 France vs. South Africa Oct 16 28 – 29 4.30 FALSE
4 England vs. Fiji Oct 16 30 – 24 6.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the RWC 2023 Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Argentina vs. New Zealand Oct 21 New Zealand -17.30
2 England vs. South Africa Oct 21 South Africa -11.70

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 10.63 8.72 1.90
Hawke’s Bay 6.22 5.12 1.10
Canterbury 6.01 9.44 -3.40
Waikato 5.30 3.71 1.60
Taranaki 5.09 -2.98 8.10
Bay of Plenty 3.52 4.55 -1.00
North Harbour 3.06 7.75 -4.70
Auckland 3.00 2.15 0.80
Tasman 2.17 2.20 -0.00
Otago -3.26 0.62 -3.90
Northland -4.29 -3.92 -0.40
Counties Manukau -5.22 -7.44 2.20
Southland -10.05 -12.27 2.20
Manawatu -18.73 -14.18 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Oct 13 23 – 16 0.70 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 13 24 – 25 9.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 20 Taranaki 1.90

 

October 9, 2023

Predictions for the RWC 2023 Cup Quarter-Finals

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Team Ratings for the RWC Cup Quarter-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 20.71 16.32 4.40
Ireland 18.78 15.46 3.30
South Africa 17.93 16.35 1.60
France 15.25 12.48 2.80
Scotland 8.28 6.81 1.50
England 6.68 4.22 2.50
Wales 3.79 0.75 3.00
Argentina 2.95 1.23 1.70
Australia 1.84 2.63 -0.80
Fiji -0.05 0.58 -0.60
Samoa -0.39 -0.50 0.10
Georgia -4.61 -2.56 -2.00
Japan -5.54 -6.10 0.60
Italy -9.63 -8.84 -0.80
Tonga -12.03 -11.38 -0.70
Portugal -13.18 -13.61 0.40
Uruguay -16.17 -15.47 -0.70
Namibia -18.85 -13.18 -5.70
Chile -19.97 -15.13 -4.80
Romania -22.74 -17.02 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 New Zealand vs. Uruguay Oct 05 73 – 0 33.90 TRUE
2 France vs. Italy Oct 06 60 – 7 29.90 TRUE
3 Wales vs. Georgia Oct 07 43 – 19 6.80 TRUE
4 England vs. Samoa Oct 07 18 – 17 8.20 TRUE
5 Ireland vs. Scotland Oct 07 36 – 14 9.30 TRUE
6 Japan vs. Argentina Oct 08 27 – 39 -7.80 TRUE
7 Fiji vs. Portugal Oct 08 23 – 24 14.60 FALSE
8 Tonga vs. Romania Oct 08 45 – 24 9.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the RWC Cup Quarter-Finals

Here are the predictions for the RWC Cup Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ireland vs. New Zealand Oct 15 New Zealand -1.90
2 Wales vs. Argentina Oct 15 Wales 0.80
3 France vs. South Africa Oct 16 France 4.30
4 England vs. Fiji Oct 16 England 6.70

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 11.41 8.72 2.70
Canterbury 6.71 9.44 -2.70
Hawke’s Bay 5.44 5.12 0.30
Waikato 5.30 3.71 1.60
Taranaki 4.39 -2.98 7.40
Bay of Plenty 3.52 4.55 -1.00
North Harbour 3.06 7.75 -4.70
Auckland 3.00 2.15 0.80
Tasman 2.17 2.20 -0.00
Otago -3.26 0.62 -3.90
Northland -4.29 -3.92 -0.40
Counties Manukau -5.22 -7.44 2.20
Southland -10.05 -12.27 2.20
Manawatu -18.73 -14.18 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. Auckland Oct 06 29 – 24 7.20 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 07 32 – 28 10.60 TRUE
3 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 07 34 – 18 3.30 TRUE
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 08 28 – 38 3.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Oct 13 Taranaki 0.70
2 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 13 Wellington 9.00

 

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October 3, 2023

RWC 2023 Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 19.21 16.32 2.90
Ireland 18.17 15.46 2.70
South Africa 17.93 16.35 1.60
France 14.26 12.48 1.80
Scotland 8.89 6.81 2.10
England 7.25 4.22 3.00
Wales 3.01 0.75 2.30
Argentina 2.61 1.23 1.40
Australia 1.84 2.63 -0.80
Fiji 0.67 0.58 0.10
Samoa -0.96 -0.50 -0.50
Georgia -3.84 -2.56 -1.30
Japan -5.21 -6.10 0.90
Italy -8.65 -8.84 0.20
Tonga -12.59 -11.38 -1.20
Portugal -13.90 -13.61 -0.30
Uruguay -14.67 -15.47 0.80
Namibia -18.85 -13.18 -5.70
Chile -19.97 -15.13 -4.80
Romania -22.18 -17.02 -5.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 84.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Uruguay vs. Namibia Sep 27 36 – 26 3.10 TRUE
2 Japan vs. Samoa Sep 28 28 – 22 -5.40 FALSE
3 New Zealand vs. Italy Sep 29 96 – 17 23.90 TRUE
4 Argentina vs. Chile Sep 30 59 – 5 19.90 TRUE
5 Fiji vs. Georgia Sep 30 17 – 12 4.40 TRUE
6 Scotland vs. Romania Sep 30 84 – 0 27.00 TRUE
7 Australia vs. Portugal Oct 01 34 – 14 14.90 TRUE
8 South Africa vs. Tonga Oct 01 49 – 18 30.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 New Zealand vs. Uruguay Oct 05 New Zealand 33.90
2 France vs. Italy Oct 06 France 29.90
3 Wales vs. Georgia Oct 07 Wales 6.80
4 England vs. Samoa Oct 07 England 8.20
5 Ireland vs. Scotland Oct 07 Ireland 9.30
6 Japan vs. Argentina Oct 08 Argentina -7.80
7 Fiji vs. Portugal Oct 08 Fiji 14.60
8 Tonga vs. Romania Oct 08 Tonga 9.60

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 12.13 8.72 3.40
Canterbury 6.95 9.44 -2.50
Waikato 4.58 3.71 0.90
Bay of Plenty 4.50 4.55 -0.10
Hawke’s Bay 4.46 5.12 -0.70
Taranaki 3.44 -2.98 6.40
Tasman 3.12 2.20 0.90
North Harbour 3.06 7.75 -4.70
Auckland 2.76 2.15 0.60
Otago -3.26 0.62 -3.90
Northland -4.29 -3.92 -0.40
Counties Manukau -5.22 -7.44 2.20
Southland -10.05 -12.27 2.20
Manawatu -18.73 -14.18 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Auckland vs. Northland Sep 29 27 – 26 11.70 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sep 30 37 – 35 0.20 TRUE
3 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 30 18 – 20 12.80 FALSE
4 Taranaki vs. North Harbour Sep 30 54 – 21 -1.00 FALSE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman Oct 01 41 – 12 0.60 TRUE
6 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Oct 01 38 – 22 3.00 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Southland Oct 01 12 – 37 -2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Auckland Oct 06 Canterbury 7.20
2 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 07 Wellington 10.60
3 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 07 Taranaki 3.30
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 08 Bay of Plenty 3.00

 

September 28, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 13.22 8.72 4.50
Canterbury 7.14 9.44 -2.30
North Harbour 5.27 7.75 -2.50
Tasman 5.01 2.20 2.80
Waikato 4.39 3.71 0.70
Auckland 3.59 2.15 1.40
Hawke’s Bay 3.38 5.12 -1.70
Bay of Plenty 2.61 4.55 -1.90
Taranaki 1.23 -2.98 4.20
Otago -4.23 0.62 -4.90
Counties Manukau -4.25 -7.44 3.20
Northland -5.11 -3.92 -1.20
Southland -11.59 -12.27 0.70
Manawatu -17.18 -14.18 -3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 27 23 – 25 -12.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Auckland vs. Northland Sep 29 Auckland 11.70
2 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sep 30 Waikato 0.20
3 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 30 Wellington 12.80
4 Taranaki vs. North Harbour Sep 30 North Harbour -1.00
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman Oct 01 Bay of Plenty 0.60
6 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Oct 01 Otago 3.00
7 Manawatu vs. Southland Oct 01 Southland -2.60

 

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