October 4, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.79 16.79 0.00
Ulster 9.78 9.27 0.50
Stormers 8.07 7.14 0.90
Bulls 7.62 7.84 -0.20
Munster 7.51 9.78 -2.30
Sharks 5.75 6.95 -1.20
Edinburgh 4.53 3.58 1.00
Ospreys -0.32 -0.83 0.50
Glasgow -0.65 -0.00 -0.60
Lions -1.29 -1.74 0.50
Scarlets -2.48 -1.23 -1.20
Connacht -2.53 -1.60 -0.90
Benetton -2.88 -3.68 0.80
Cardiff Rugby -7.93 -7.42 -0.50
Dragons -11.09 -11.81 0.70
Zebre -14.84 -16.99 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Connacht Oct 01 28 – 14 14.80 TRUE
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Oct 01 18 – 31 -1.00 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Leinster Oct 01 13 – 20 -2.00 TRUE
4 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Oct 01 34 – 18 7.10 TRUE
5 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Oct 02 32 – 17 3.70 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Zebre Oct 02 21 – 5 28.00 TRUE
7 Benetton vs. Scarlets Oct 02 34 – 23 3.30 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Oct 02 19 – 20 -13.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Munster Oct 08 Munster -6.00
2 Edinburgh vs. Lions Oct 08 Edinburgh 10.30
3 Zebre vs. Stormers Oct 09 Stormers -18.40
4 Leinster vs. Sharks Oct 09 Leinster 15.50
5 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 09 Scarlets 9.50
6 Glasgow vs. Bulls Oct 09 Bulls -3.80
7 Ulster vs. Ospreys Oct 09 Ulster 14.60
8 Benetton vs. Dragons Oct 09 Benetton 12.70

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.53 6.34 1.20
La Rochelle 6.93 6.88 0.10
Montpellier 4.91 4.18 0.70
Clermont 4.71 4.05 0.70
Bordeaux Begles 4.46 5.27 -0.80
Racing 92 4.21 4.86 -0.60
Toulon 3.70 4.09 -0.40
Lyon 2.05 3.10 -1.10
Castres Olympique 2.04 2.87 -0.80
Stade Francais -0.24 -1.05 0.80
Section Paloise -2.79 -2.12 -0.70
USA Perpignan -3.23 -2.75 -0.50
Aviron Bayonnais -3.32 -4.26 0.90
Brive -3.72 -4.20 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Oct 01 15 – 10 11.90 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Aviron Bayonnais Oct 02 25 – 22 6.40 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Lyon Oct 02 43 – 20 8.20 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Toulon Oct 02 17 – 34 1.20 FALSE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Oct 02 14 – 10 0.90 TRUE
6 La Rochelle vs. Racing 92 Oct 02 24 – 19 9.70 TRUE
7 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 03 17 – 19 4.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. La Rochelle Oct 08 La Rochelle -3.80
2 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Oct 08 Castres Olympique 3.60
3 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 08 Lyon 4.10
4 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Oct 08 Racing 92 13.50
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Oct 08 Stade Francais 9.50
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Oct 08 Stade Toulousain 9.30
7 Toulon vs. Brive Oct 08 Toulon 13.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 6.03 7.93 -1.90
Gloucester 5.92 5.92 0.00
Sale Sharks 4.38 4.14 0.20
Harlequins 4.05 3.92 0.10
Northampton Saints 3.86 3.99 -0.10
Exeter Chiefs 3.43 3.67 -0.20
Wasps 0.77 0.77 -0.00
London Irish -1.89 -1.65 -0.20
Saracens -3.10 -5.00 1.90
Bristol -3.31 -2.43 -0.90
Newcastle Falcons -7.88 -8.76 0.90
Bath -8.91 -9.15 0.20
Worcester Warriors -12.27 -12.27 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Oct 01 30 – 15 -1.80 FALSE
2 London Irish vs. Bath Oct 02 47 – 38 12.00 TRUE
3 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 02 28 – 20 5.00 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 02 51 – 18 -8.40 FALSE
5 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Oct 03 35 – 29 4.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 08 Exeter Chiefs -2.20
2 Bath vs. Gloucester Oct 09 Gloucester -10.30
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 09 Leicester Tigers 6.20
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Oct 09 Harlequins -11.80
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Oct 10 Saracens -0.30
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Oct 10 Wasps 1.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 7.43 2.00 5.40
North Harbour 6.56 2.31 4.20
Hawke’s Bay 5.56 5.87 -0.30
Wellington 5.36 3.58 1.80
Waikato 4.08 2.00 2.10
Bay of Plenty 4.03 0.10 3.90
Auckland 3.88 4.50 -0.60
Tasman 3.60 5.94 -2.30
Otago -0.46 -1.63 1.20
Taranaki -1.13 3.63 -4.80
Northland -5.58 -6.68 1.10
Counties Manukau -7.34 -6.32 -1.00
Southland -11.26 -7.01 -4.20
Manawatu -12.41 -5.97 -6.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 30 25 – 17 3.60 TRUE
2 Southland vs. North Harbour Oct 01 8 – 66 -11.80 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Taranaki Oct 01 38 – 24 6.60 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Canterbury Oct 01 21 – 27 -5.20 TRUE
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Oct 02 31 – 64 -8.00 TRUE
6 Northland vs. Manawatu Oct 02 41 – 24 8.30 TRUE
7 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 02 35 – 34 2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Auckland Oct 07 North Harbour 5.20
2 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 08 Wellington 2.30
3 Canterbury vs. Northland Oct 08 Canterbury 15.50
4 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 09 Waikato 2.50

 

September 29, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 7.35 2.00 5.30
Hawke’s Bay 5.12 5.87 -0.70
North Harbour 4.79 2.31 2.50
Waikato 4.27 2.00 2.30
Wellington 4.24 3.58 0.70
Tasman 4.05 5.94 -1.90
Bay of Plenty 3.84 0.10 3.70
Auckland 3.44 4.50 -1.10
Otago -0.39 -1.63 1.20
Taranaki -0.69 3.63 -4.30
Northland -6.09 -6.68 0.60
Counties Manukau -6.22 -6.32 0.10
Southland -9.49 -7.01 -2.50
Manawatu -11.90 -5.97 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Sep 28 21 – 23 14.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 30 Hawke’s Bay 3.60
2 Southland vs. North Harbour Oct 01 North Harbour -11.80
3 Auckland vs. Taranaki Oct 01 Auckland 6.60
4 Otago vs. Canterbury Oct 01 Canterbury -5.20
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Oct 02 Wellington -8.00
6 Northland vs. Manawatu Oct 02 Northland 8.30
7 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 02 Waikato 2.90

 

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September 27, 2022

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.29 14.26 -2.00
Storm 11.21 19.20 -8.00
Rabbitohs 9.35 15.81 -6.50
Roosters 7.64 2.23 5.40
Eels 7.48 2.54 4.90
Cowboys 6.23 -12.27 18.50
Sharks 4.50 -1.10 5.60
Raiders 1.98 -1.10 3.10
Dragons -2.73 -7.99 5.30
Sea Eagles -5.26 10.99 -16.30
Broncos -5.92 -8.90 3.00
Titans -6.32 1.05 -7.40
Bulldogs -8.29 -10.25 2.00
Knights -9.53 -6.54 -3.00
Warriors -11.12 -8.99 -2.10
Wests Tigers -13.52 -10.94 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 136 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Eels Sep 23 20 – 24 2.80 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Sep 24 32 – 12 0.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Eels Panthers 4.80

 

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.29 16.79 -0.50
Ulster 10.28 9.27 1.00
Munster 8.08 9.78 -1.70
Bulls 7.70 7.84 -0.10
Stormers 7.61 7.14 0.50
Sharks 6.33 6.95 -0.60
Edinburgh 4.99 3.58 1.40
Glasgow -0.10 -0.00 -0.10
Ospreys -0.87 -0.83 -0.00
Lions -1.86 -1.74 -0.10
Scarlets -2.06 -1.23 -0.80
Connacht -2.61 -1.60 -1.00
Benetton -3.30 -3.68 0.40
Cardiff Rugby -7.36 -7.42 0.10
Dragons -11.67 -11.81 0.10
Zebre -15.41 -16.99 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Sharks Sep 24 37 – 42 -18.50 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Cardiff Rugby Sep 24 52 – 24 10.30 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Benetton Sep 24 42 – 10 23.20 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Ulster Sep 24 39 – 55 -6.90 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Edinburgh Sep 24 33 – 31 8.50 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Connacht Sep 25 38 – 15 13.80 TRUE
7 Ospreys vs. Lions Sep 25 27 – 28 6.30 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Munster Sep 26 23 – 17 -17.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Connacht Oct 01 Bulls 14.80
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Oct 01 Lions -1.00
3 Ulster vs. Leinster Oct 01 Leinster -2.00
4 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Oct 01 Stormers 7.10
5 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Oct 02 Ospreys 3.70
6 Munster vs. Zebre Oct 02 Munster 28.00
7 Benetton vs. Scarlets Oct 02 Benetton 3.30
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Oct 02 Sharks -13.50

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.21 6.34 0.90
La Rochelle 7.17 6.88 0.30
Montpellier 5.24 4.18 1.10
Bordeaux Begles 4.80 5.27 -0.50
Clermont 4.22 4.05 0.20
Racing 92 3.97 4.86 -0.90
Toulon 3.11 4.09 -1.00
Lyon 2.54 3.10 -0.60
Castres Olympique 2.19 2.87 -0.70
Stade Francais -0.58 -1.05 0.50
Section Paloise -2.20 -2.12 -0.10
USA Perpignan -3.38 -2.75 -0.60
Aviron Bayonnais -3.49 -4.26 0.80
Brive -3.55 -4.20 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Sep 24 19 – 13 -0.70 FALSE
2 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Bordeaux Begles Sep 25 20 – 15 -2.50 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Brive Sep 25 12 – 6 12.90 TRUE
4 Lyon vs. Stade Francais Sep 25 33 – 27 10.00 TRUE
5 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Sep 25 43 – 17 13.10 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Sep 25 37 – 10 8.50 TRUE
7 Clermont vs. La Rochelle Sep 26 22 – 13 2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Oct 01 Bordeaux Begles 11.90
2 Brive vs. Aviron Bayonnais Oct 02 Brive 6.40
3 Clermont vs. Lyon Oct 02 Clermont 8.20
4 Section Paloise vs. Toulon Oct 02 Section Paloise 1.20
5 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Oct 02 USA Perpignan 0.90
6 La Rochelle vs. Racing 92 Oct 02 La Rochelle 9.70
7 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 03 Montpellier 4.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 8.97 7.93 1.00
Gloucester 5.43 5.92 -0.50
Harlequins 4.18 3.92 0.30
Sale Sharks 4.14 4.14 0.00
Exeter Chiefs 3.41 3.67 -0.30
Northampton Saints 2.94 3.99 -1.00
Wasps 0.98 0.77 0.20
London Irish -1.67 -1.65 -0.00
Bristol -2.41 -2.43 0.00
Saracens -4.51 -5.00 0.50
Bath -9.36 -9.15 -0.20
Newcastle Falcons -10.32 -8.76 -1.60
Worcester Warriors -10.71 -12.27 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Wasps Sep 24 31 – 39 -5.40 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. London Irish Sep 25 40 – 36 3.70 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 25 21 – 41 0.60 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Sep 25 41 – 39 -6.40 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 25 39 – 5 1.00 TRUE
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Sep 26 43 – 42 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Oct 01 Bristol -3.40
2 Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 02 Gloucester 20.60
3 London Irish vs. Bath Oct 02 London Irish 12.20
4 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 02 Sale Sharks 5.20
5 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 02 Leicester Tigers -9.00
6 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Oct 03 Harlequins 5.70

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 7.35 2.00 5.30
Hawke’s Bay 5.12 5.87 -0.70
North Harbour 4.79 2.31 2.50
Bay of Plenty 4.64 0.10 4.50
Waikato 4.27 2.00 2.30
Wellington 4.24 3.58 0.70
Tasman 4.05 5.94 -1.90
Auckland 3.44 4.50 -1.10
Otago -0.39 -1.63 1.20
Taranaki -0.69 3.63 -4.30
Counties Manukau -6.22 -6.32 0.10
Northland -6.89 -6.68 -0.20
Southland -9.49 -7.01 -2.50
Manawatu -11.90 -5.97 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. Auckland Sep 23 38 – 20 5.10 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 24 20 – 14 1.00 TRUE
3 Tasman vs. Northland Sep 24 52 – 17 11.30 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Waikato Sep 24 34 – 6 0.00 TRUE
5 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 25 35 – 54 -7.80 TRUE
6 North Harbour vs. Taranaki Sep 25 35 – 19 6.90 TRUE
7 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 25 30 – 26 -2.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Sep 28 Bay of Plenty 14.00

 

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