June 25, 2021

Professor Bruce Weir elected as Fellow of Royal Society

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In early May we received the fantastic news that fellow New Zealander Professor Bruce Weir, who is an Honorary Professor at the University of Auckland as well as a Professor of Statistical Genetics at the University of Washington, has been elected to the prestigious position of Fellow of the Royal Society.

Our NZSA colleague, Dr Harold Henderson, sent members a link to a feature article in Stuff which we thought StatsChat readers may enjoy.

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June 22, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.84 2.32 5.50
Racing-Metro 92 6.93 6.21 0.70
Stade Toulousain 6.71 4.80 1.90
Bordeaux-Begles 5.27 2.83 2.40
Clermont Auvergne 5.23 3.22 2.00
Lyon Rugby 4.55 5.61 -1.10
RC Toulonnais 1.91 3.56 -1.70
Castres Olympique 1.29 -0.47 1.80
Stade Francais Paris 1.16 -3.22 4.40
Montpellier 0.52 2.30 -1.80
Section Paloise -2.55 -4.48 1.90
Brive -3.29 -3.26 -0.00
Aviron Bayonnais -5.82 -4.13 -1.70
SU Agen -19.21 -4.72 -14.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 186 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jun 19 19 – 6 5.30 TRUE
2 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jun 20 24 – 21 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle Jun 26 Stade Toulousain 4.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.78 7.35 2.40
Sale Sharks 5.77 4.96 0.80
Bristol 4.72 1.28 3.40
Harlequins 3.43 -1.08 4.50
Northampton Saints -0.75 -2.48 1.70
Wasps -1.95 5.66 -7.60
Gloucester -2.57 -1.02 -1.50
Leicester Tigers -2.70 -6.14 3.40
Bath -2.81 2.14 -4.90
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90
Newcastle Falcons -9.04 -10.00 1.00
Worcester Warriors -9.80 -5.71 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Jun 20 36 – 43 7.30 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 20 40 – 30 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 27 Exeter Chiefs -6.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 21.12 14.53 6.60
Panthers 15.10 8.88 6.20
Eels 9.41 1.68 7.70
Rabbitohs 7.38 7.73 -0.40
Roosters 6.73 10.25 -3.50
Sea Eagles 6.04 -4.77 10.80
Sharks -1.46 -0.76 -0.70
Raiders -2.50 6.98 -9.50
Warriors -3.73 -1.84 -1.90
Dragons -4.75 -4.95 0.20
Wests Tigers -4.83 -3.07 -1.80
Knights -7.98 -2.61 -5.40
Titans -8.02 -7.22 -0.80
Cowboys -9.26 -8.05 -1.20
Bulldogs -10.15 -7.62 -2.50
Broncos -15.09 -11.16 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 116 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Jun 17 0 – 46 -14.10 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 18 24 – 26 -5.50 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Roosters Jun 18 38 – 12 8.30 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Warriors Jun 19 10 – 6 -2.40 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Raiders Jun 19 22 – 20 0.40 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Jun 19 66 – 16 24.60 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jun 20 36 – 10 21.80 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 20 24 – 56 -6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 01 Storm -11.40
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Jul 02 Dragons -2.00
3 Panthers vs. Eels Jul 02 Panthers 8.70
4 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 03 Sea Eagles -13.20
5 Raiders vs. Titans Jul 03 Raiders 8.50
6 Knights vs. Cowboys Jul 03 Knights 4.30
7 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 04 Sharks -10.60
8 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 04 Rabbitohs -9.20

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.40 5.19 0.20
Western Province 4.22 3.28 0.90
Bulls 4.19 5.14 -0.90
Lions 2.65 3.74 -1.10
Cheetahs -2.17 -2.17 0.00
Pumas -4.58 -5.67 1.10
Griquas -9.71 -9.50 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 33.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Lions Jun 19 39 – 10 -6.40 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Jun 19 16 – 30 -11.70 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Western Province Jun 20 24 – 48 4.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Western Province Jun 24 Lions 1.40
2 Bulls vs. Pumas Jun 26 Bulls 11.80
3 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Jun 26 Cheetahs -4.50

 

June 19, 2021

The Olympics condom story

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Every two years, there’s a news story about how many condoms are being handed out at the Olympics.  I last wrote about it four years ago, when Rio planned to give away 450,000 condoms in the Olympic Village, compared to a mere 150,000 in London, and 90,000 in Sydney (initially 70,000, but they ran out).  The number was 110,000 in Pyeongyang, and the Guardian reports that it’s 160,000 for Tokyo.

It’s pretty clear that advertising for safe sex is a big part of these numbers. Which is a bit tricky this time around — the Tokyo Olympics has a serious problem with the risk of communicable disease, but it’s not one that condoms will fix. This year, according to the Guardian, the condoms are just intended as souvenirs, not as a way around social distancing rules.

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.19 5.19 0.00
Bulls 5.14 5.14 0.00
Lions 3.74 3.74 -0.00
Western Province 3.28 3.28 0.00
Cheetahs -2.17 -2.17 0.00
Pumas -5.67 -5.67 -0.00
Griquas -9.50 -9.50 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Lions Jun 19 Lions -6.40
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Jun 19 Sharks -11.70
3 Bulls vs. Western Province Jun 20 Bulls 4.90

 

June 15, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 7.47 6.21 1.30
La Rochelle 7.30 2.32 5.00
Stade Toulousain 7.03 4.80 2.20
Clermont Auvergne 5.23 3.22 2.00
Bordeaux-Begles 4.95 2.83 2.10
Lyon Rugby 4.55 5.61 -1.10
RC Toulonnais 1.91 3.56 -1.70
Castres Olympique 1.29 -0.47 1.80
Stade Francais Paris 1.16 -3.22 4.40
Montpellier 0.52 2.30 -1.80
Section Paloise -2.55 -4.48 1.90
Brive -3.29 -3.26 -0.00
Aviron Bayonnais -5.82 -4.13 -1.70
SU Agen -19.21 -4.72 -14.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris Jun 12 38 – 21 11.00 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Clermont Auvergne Jun 12 25 – 16 4.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jun 19 La Rochelle 5.30
2 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jun 20 Stade Toulousain 7.60

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.79 14.49 0.30
Blues 9.30 7.80 1.50
Hurricanes 8.02 7.13 0.90
Highlanders 5.41 2.70 2.70
Chiefs 5.31 4.38 0.90
Brumbies 2.02 1.47 0.50
Reds 0.53 1.59 -1.10
Rebels -6.39 -3.51 -2.90
Western Force -10.06 -13.05 3.00
Waratahs -10.96 -5.02 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 68 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Reds Jun 11 43 – 14 12.90 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jun 11 12 – 33 4.70 FALSE
3 Rebels vs. Crusaders Jun 12 26 – 52 -20.50 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Western Force Jun 12 31 – 21 27.00 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Jun 12 7 – 40 -8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 19 Blues 9.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.63 7.35 2.30
Sale Sharks 5.91 4.96 0.90
Bristol 5.49 1.28 4.20
Harlequins 2.66 -1.08 3.70
Northampton Saints -0.75 -2.48 1.70
Wasps -1.95 5.66 -7.60
Gloucester -2.57 -1.02 -1.50
Leicester Tigers -2.70 -6.14 3.40
Bath -2.81 2.14 -4.90
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90
Newcastle Falcons -9.04 -10.00 1.00
Worcester Warriors -9.80 -5.71 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Jun 13 30 – 24 1.90 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 13 20 – 19 9.20 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Jun 13 54 – 26 14.80 TRUE
4 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 13 31 – 38 6.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Jun 20 Bristol 7.30
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 20 Exeter Chiefs 8.20

 

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