September 28, 2021

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wasps 6.93 5.66 1.30
Exeter Chiefs 5.38 7.35 -2.00
Sale Sharks 4.09 4.96 -0.90
Bath 1.59 2.14 -0.50
Harlequins -0.87 -1.08 0.20
Northampton Saints -1.09 -2.48 1.40
Bristol -1.33 1.28 -2.60
Gloucester -2.43 -1.02 -1.40
Newcastle Falcons -3.05 -3.52 0.50
Saracens -3.65 -5.00 1.40
Leicester Tigers -4.16 -6.14 2.00
Worcester Warriors -5.13 -5.71 0.60
London Irish -7.88 -8.05 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 41.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 25 26 – 33 7.80 FALSE
2 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 26 13 – 20 11.00 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Sep 26 24 – 26 12.50 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 26 35 – 29 9.30 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Bristol Sep 26 44 – 8 10.20 TRUE
6 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Sep 27 31 – 31 -8.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Bath Oct 02 Bristol 1.60
2 Northampton Saints vs. London Irish Oct 02 Northampton Saints 11.30
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Oct 03 Leicester Tigers 4.00
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps Oct 03 Wasps -5.50
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Oct 03 Worcester Warriors 1.80
6 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 04 Sale Sharks 3.20

 

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 19.20 14.53 4.70
Rabbitohs 16.22 7.73 8.50
Panthers 13.86 8.88 5.00
Sea Eagles 10.99 -4.77 15.80
Eels 2.54 1.68 0.90
Roosters 2.23 10.25 -8.00
Titans 1.05 -7.22 8.30
Raiders -1.10 6.98 -8.10
Sharks -1.10 -0.76 -0.30
Knights -6.54 -2.61 -3.90
Dragons -7.99 -4.95 -3.00
Broncos -8.90 -11.16 2.30
Warriors -8.99 -1.84 -7.10
Bulldogs -10.25 -7.62 -2.60
Wests Tigers -10.94 -3.07 -7.90
Cowboys -12.27 -8.05 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 145 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 24 36 – 16 2.10 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Panthers Sep 25 6 – 10 7.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Oct 03 Rabbitohs -2.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 9.74 10.71 -1.00
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Waikato 5.83 2.52 3.30
Wellington 5.73 5.62 0.10
Hawke’s Bay 4.48 4.07 0.40
Canterbury 4.30 6.44 -2.10
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Bay of Plenty 2.74 5.20 -2.50
Taranaki 1.92 -4.52 6.40
Otago -4.74 -3.47 -1.30
Northland -10.00 -4.75 -5.20
Southland -10.07 -10.39 0.30
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90
Manawatu -11.32 -14.72 3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. Waikato Sep 24 22 – 39 11.00 FALSE
2 Southland vs. Canterbury Sep 25 16 – 19 -12.20 TRUE
3 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 25 31 – 19 0.60 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 26 28 – 31 6.10 FALSE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Sep 26 28 – 55 8.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Waikato Oct 02 Waikato -12.30
2 Manawatu vs. Otago Oct 02 Otago -3.10
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Oct 02 Bay of Plenty 0.50
4 Tasman vs. Southland Oct 03 Tasman 23.30

 

September 22, 2021

An important graph

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From David Hood on Twitter, this graph shows leaving-home-ness in Aotearoa and the West Island, based on Google’s phone mobility data

The most important point about the graph, to me, is that the black dots follow a horizontal line (and the blue dots mostly follow a set of three horizontal lines).  This says that level 4 restrictions (and level 3, in RoNZ) were not eroding over time.  People were staying home just as much at the end as the beginning, even after four weeks and a much reduced case load.

The second important point is that the cluster of blue dots in the middle is a bit below the rest of the middle. Level 3 is slightly more effective, in terms of people staying home, than the Victoria and NSW and ACT restrictions. Level 3 is still a risk: it relies on people being at least as careful about masks and distancing and not accidentally flying to Wanaka as in level 4. Experts seem to be worried that it might be a bad idea, but to pretty much agree it’s still an effort at elimination.

How is that possible, given all the news about level 4 breaks? Well, Auckland is a big place. If 1% of people committed some serious breach of the rules and 1% of that 1% were reported, you’d have 160 reports.

September 21, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

A caveat regarding these predictions. This is a competition where four teams have been added, and there is little information about the performance of those new teams against the existing teams. There is also little information concerning the effect of travel when the new teams are in a different continent. I have used previous form from the Pro14, Rainbow Cup, Super Rugby, and Super Rugby Unlocked but have not been able to tune model parameters using years of past data in the way I usually do, nor obtain initial ratings to my satisfaction. Particularly early in the competition, results may be erratic.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.79 14.79 -0.00
Munster 10.69 10.69 0.00
Ulster 7.41 7.41 -0.00
Glasgow 3.69 3.69 0.00
Bulls 3.65 3.65 0.00
Edinburgh 2.90 2.90 0.00
Connacht 1.72 1.72 0.00
Ospreys 0.94 0.94 0.00
Stormers 0.00 0.00 -0.00
Sharks -0.07 -0.07 -0.00
Cardiff Rugby -0.11 -0.11 -0.00
Scarlets -0.77 -0.77 -0.00
Lions -3.91 -3.91 0.00
Benetton -4.50 -4.50 -0.00
Dragons -6.92 -6.92 0.00
Zebre -13.47 -13.47 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Lions Sep 25 Lions -3.10
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Connacht Sep 25 Cardiff Rugby 4.70
3 Ulster vs. Glasgow Sep 25 Ulster 10.20
4 Benetton vs. Stormers Sep 25 Benetton 2.00
5 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Sep 26 Edinburgh 10.20
6 Leinster vs. Bulls Sep 26 Leinster 17.60
7 Munster vs. Sharks Sep 26 Munster 17.30
8 Dragons vs. Ospreys Sep 26 Ospreys -2.90

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.88 6.83 1.10
Racing-Metro 92 6.57 6.13 0.40
La Rochelle 6.29 6.78 -0.50
Bordeaux-Begles 5.60 5.42 0.20
Lyon Rugby 5.05 4.15 0.90
Clermont Auvergne 4.24 5.09 -0.90
RC Toulonnais 1.59 1.82 -0.20
Castres Olympique 1.04 0.94 0.10
Montpellier 0.76 -0.01 0.80
Stade Francais Paris -0.67 1.20 -1.90
Section Paloise -2.18 -2.25 0.10
Biarritz -2.27 -2.78 0.50
Brive -2.71 -3.19 0.50
USA Perpignan -3.81 -2.78 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. Racing-Metro 92 Sep 18 28 – 19 -3.20 FALSE
2 Brive vs. Section Paloise Sep 18 30 – 13 5.20 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux-Begles Sep 18 23 – 23 2.20 FALSE
4 Lyon Rugby vs. USA Perpignan Sep 18 47 – 3 13.50 TRUE
5 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 19 15 – 17 -0.50 TRUE
6 Clermont Auvergne vs. La Rochelle Sep 19 23 – 22 4.80 TRUE
7 RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Francais Paris Sep 20 38 – 5 7.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Brive Sep 25 Bordeaux-Begles 14.80
2 La Rochelle vs. Biarritz Sep 25 La Rochelle 15.10
3 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Sep 25 Section Paloise 3.60
4 Stade Francais Paris vs. Castres Olympique Sep 25 Stade Francais Paris 4.80
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Lyon Rugby Sep 26 Racing-Metro 92 8.00
6 USA Perpignan vs. RC Toulonnais Sep 26 USA Perpignan 1.10
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Auvergne Sep 27 Stade Toulousain 10.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.15 7.35 -1.20
Wasps 5.66 5.66 -0.00
Sale Sharks 4.58 4.96 -0.40
Bath 2.52 2.14 0.40
Bristol -0.07 1.28 -1.40
Harlequins -0.61 -1.08 0.50
Gloucester -1.64 -1.02 -0.60
Northampton Saints -1.87 -2.48 0.60
Saracens -3.65 -5.00 1.40
Newcastle Falcons -3.99 -3.52 -0.50
Leicester Tigers -4.95 -6.14 1.20
Worcester Warriors -5.39 -5.71 0.30
London Irish -8.37 -8.05 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Saracens Sep 18 9 – 26 10.80 FALSE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 19 34 – 19 -9.00 FALSE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Sep 19 34 – 20 3.00 TRUE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish Sep 19 36 – 24 6.80 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Sep 19 20 – 19 7.30 TRUE
6 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Sep 20 20 – 26 2.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 25 Gloucester 7.80
2 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 26 Bath 11.00
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Sep 26 Exeter Chiefs 12.50
4 Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 26 Harlequins 9.30
5 Wasps vs. Bristol Sep 26 Wasps 10.20
6 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Sep 27 Sale Sharks -8.50

 

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 20.21 14.53 5.70
Rabbitohs 14.67 7.73 6.90
Panthers 12.85 8.88 4.00
Sea Eagles 12.54 -4.77 17.30
Eels 2.54 1.68 0.90
Roosters 2.23 10.25 -8.00
Titans 1.05 -7.22 8.30
Raiders -1.10 6.98 -8.10
Sharks -1.10 -0.76 -0.30
Knights -6.54 -2.61 -3.90
Dragons -7.99 -4.95 -3.00
Broncos -8.90 -11.16 2.30
Warriors -8.99 -1.84 -7.10
Bulldogs -10.25 -7.62 -2.60
Wests Tigers -10.94 -3.07 -7.90
Cowboys -12.27 -8.05 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 144 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Sep 17 42 – 6 5.10 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Eels Sep 18 8 – 6 12.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 24 Rabbitohs 2.10
2 Storm vs. Panthers Sep 25 Storm 7.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 11.54 10.71 0.80
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Wellington 6.39 5.62 0.80
Bay of Plenty 5.00 5.20 -0.20
Canterbury 4.96 6.44 -1.50
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Waikato 4.02 2.52 1.50
Hawke’s Bay 3.83 4.07 -0.20
Taranaki -0.34 -4.52 4.20
Otago -4.74 -3.47 -1.30
Northland -9.19 -4.75 -4.40
Southland -10.73 -10.39 -0.30
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90
Manawatu -12.13 -14.72 2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sep 17 19 – 20 3.30 FALSE
2 Taranaki vs. Wellington Sep 18 32 – 26 -4.70 FALSE
3 Northland vs. Tasman Sep 18 29 – 48 -16.80 TRUE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 19 36 – 33 2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Waikato Sep 24 Tasman 11.00
2 Southland vs. Canterbury Sep 25 Canterbury -12.20
3 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 25 Manawatu 0.60
4 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 26 Wellington 6.10
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Sep 26 Bay of Plenty 8.80

 

September 15, 2021

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The NPC site calls this round Updated Week 3, but it is the original Round 7, less games involving the three Auckland teams. Game times are much the same, and sticking with original round names is easiest for my data.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 11.35 10.71 0.60
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Wellington 7.15 5.62 1.50
Bay of Plenty 5.07 5.20 -0.10
Canterbury 4.57 6.44 -1.90
Waikato 4.41 2.52 1.90
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Hawke’s Bay 3.75 4.07 -0.30
Taranaki -1.10 -4.52 3.40
Otago -4.74 -3.47 -1.30
Northland -9.00 -4.75 -4.20
Southland -10.73 -10.39 -0.30
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90
Manawatu -12.13 -14.72 2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour Aug 13 6 – 14 -12.40 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Aug 14 16 – 11 6.50 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Aug 14 34 – 10 10.10 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Aug 14 25 – 22 22.80 TRUE
5 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 15 11 – 31 -11.00 TRUE
6 Waikato vs. Wellington Aug 15 43 – 37 -0.40 FALSE
7 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 15 14 – 48 -0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sep 17 Waikato 3.30
2 Taranaki vs. Wellington Sep 18 Wellington -4.70
3 Northland vs. Tasman Sep 18 Tasman -16.80
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 19 Hawke’s Bay 2.20

 

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