Posts filed under General (3156)

Team Ratings for Round 4

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 4, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 87.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

To complement the Herald’s flying Air New Zealand vs driving costs for various NZ cities, I thought I’d work out similar comparisons for the Pacific Northwest, where I used to live.  It’s a reasonable comparison — both have relatively sparsely spaced cities, though the roads are better there.

I used Alaska Airlines for the flying costs; they are the main local airline in the region. The costs are the cheapest flight on a random weekday in September — there will be some days and seasons when it’s cheaper or more expensive.  The driving cost  is based on the actual driving distance, not the straight-line distance, and uses the cost per mile specified for business tax deductions.

The results aren’t that different from NZ, except that the impact of competition is clearer: the Seattle–Calgary flight is much less expensive that you’d predict from the others, probably because there lots of one-stop alternatives via Vancouver.

‘Dodgy use of data’ edition [Background: the Washington Post is the serious DC paper. The Washington Times, not so much]

• From the Washington Post  “But really, is it possible that more than 1 in 6 people in France could “back” Islamic State? When you look at the numbers closely, something doesn’t add up.”

• From journalism/editing blog HeadsUp: “Too bad a clear conscience and a pure heart can’t turn correlation into cause, no matter what your first named source says.”

• From economics blog TVHE:  “For example, [Tourism Industry Association New Zealand] claims that 15%of Upper Hutt residents’ jobs depend on the tourism industry, while only 9% of residents’ jobs in Queenstown-Lakes District depend on tourism.”

• From linguistics blog Language Log: “I’ll merely observe that the Preamble to the U.S. Constitution scores 68% on the Latinometer, well over the “probably lying” threshold. “

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team

Team Ratings for Round 3

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 3, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 91.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

From XKCD. Both the data and the display technique are worth looking at

Presumably you could do something similar with New Zealand, which is roughly the same shape.

Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 2

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 2, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.