Posts filed under General (3156)

October 4, 2013

Dove advert takes a dive …

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From today’s New Zealand Herald:

Beauty giant Dove has been forced to take an advertisement for its shampoo off television screens after it was deemed misleading to viewers.

The commercial for Dove Hair Care, which claimed 90 per cent of Kiwi women recommend its products, received a number of complaints from viewers who said it was “clearly misleading”.

 The people “polled” had been sent free samples. Had I been one of them I would have made nice noises too.

Read the full story here.

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October 2, 2013

Data journalism links

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The Data Journalism handbook online

This book is intended to be a useful resource for anyone who thinks that they might be interested in becoming a data journalist, or dabbling in data journalism….

Lamentably the act of reading this book will not supply you with a comprehensive repertoire of all if the knowledge and skills you need to become a data journalist. This would require a vast library manned by hundreds of experts able to help answer questions on hundreds of topics. Luckily this library exists and it is called the internet. Instead, we hope this book will give you a sense of how to get started and where to look if you want to go further. Examples and tutorials serve to be illustrative rather than exhaustive.

And one of the additional resources on the internet: Cathy O’Neil’s On Being a Data Skeptic.

October 1, 2013

Making up numbers

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Bob Jones, in the Herald

But although the offenders are male, 99.999 per cent of men are not rapists and feel just as outraged as women do about it.

He’s obviously just pulled that number out of his head (or somewhere else round and inappropriate), since it would imply only about 20 male rapists in New Zealand. About 20 times that number were convicted and sent to prison just last year for sexual assault or aggravated sexual assault.

A lot of men have a hard time believing that rape is as common as it is — either because they can’t imagine doing it, or because they do it and don’t think it’s rape. But there are good-quality high response-rate surveys showing that lots of women have been raped, and if only a tiny minority of men are rapists, they have to be very busy.

Bob Jones is off by at least three, and quite likely more than four orders of magnitude. That must be close to a record.

(update)

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September 25, 2013

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 7, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 21.19 23.14 -2.00
Wellington 11.88 6.93 4.90
Auckland 8.41 9.02 -0.60
Counties Manukau 4.44 4.36 0.10
Waikato 2.10 5.25 -3.20
Tasman -1.11 -6.29 5.20
Taranaki -2.13 3.92 -6.10
Otago -3.54 -4.44 0.90
Hawke’s Bay -5.05 -6.72 1.70
Bay of Plenty -5.56 -1.96 -3.60
North Harbour -6.61 -7.43 0.80
Northland -8.74 -8.26 -0.50
Southland -9.06 -11.86 2.80
Manawatu -9.50 -8.97 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 18 25 – 33 12.30 FALSE
2 Auckland vs. Northland Sep 19 41 – 10 19.90 TRUE
3 Otago vs. Manawatu Sep 20 52 – 41 10.40 TRUE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Sep 21 37 – 25 5.90 TRUE
5 Wellington vs. Canterbury Sep 21 25 – 19 -6.90 FALSE
6 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 21 21 – 3 6.00 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 22 18 – 9 8.30 TRUE
8 Southland vs. North Harbour Sep 22 34 – 31 1.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Sep 25 Canterbury 35.20
2 Northland vs. Tasman Sep 26 Tasman -3.10
3 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 27 Wellington -5.30
4 Otago vs. Southland Sep 28 Otago 10.00
5 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Sep 28 Taranaki -2.90
6 Auckland vs. Canterbury Sep 28 Canterbury -8.30
7 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Sep 29 Hawke’s Bay 6.10
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Sep 29 Counties Manukau -5.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 8, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 3.61 3.24 0.40
Western Province 3.15 4.47 -1.30
Lions 2.08 -1.22 3.30
Cheetahs -2.84 -2.74 -0.10
Blue Bulls -3.45 0.59 -4.00
Griquas -4.70 -6.48 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 20 19 – 13 17.40 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Sep 21 50 – 26 11.70 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Blue Bulls Sep 21 35 – 26 13.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Sep 27 Cheetahs 1.50
2 Lions vs. Sharks Sep 27 Lions 6.00
3 Griquas vs. Blue Bulls Sep 28 Griquas 6.20

 

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.32 -5.68 17.00
Storm 8.36 9.73 -1.40
Sea Eagles 7.72 4.78 2.90
Knights 7.31 0.44 6.90
Rabbitohs 7.05 5.23 1.80
Cowboys 6.60 7.05 -0.40
Bulldogs 2.16 7.33 -5.20
Titans 2.11 -1.85 4.00
Sharks 1.87 -1.78 3.70
Warriors -0.89 -10.01 9.10
Panthers -2.57 -6.58 4.00
Broncos -5.15 -1.55 -3.60
Dragons -8.18 -0.33 -7.90
Raiders -10.23 2.03 -12.30
Wests Tigers -11.37 -3.71 -7.70
Eels -19.87 -8.82 -11.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Sep 20 24 – 18 5.82 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Knights Sep 21 16 – 18 7.44 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 27 Sea Eagles -0.70
2 Roosters vs. Knights Sep 28 Roosters 4.00

 

September 23, 2013

Unclear on the pie chart concept

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The pie-chart problems that Melbourne’s Herald-Sun had with their bogus polls appear to be spreading. This one is from wtfviz.net (via @TimHarford), and apparently comes from Britain’s TES magazine.

tespie

I suppose it’s encouraging that this sort of thing seems only to happen for bogus polls, not for actual data.

 

September 18, 2013

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 6, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 22.22 23.14 -0.90
Wellington 10.85 6.93 3.90
Auckland 7.52 9.02 -1.50
Counties Manukau 3.95 4.36 -0.40
Waikato 2.60 5.25 -2.70
Tasman -1.16 -6.29 5.10
Bay of Plenty -2.98 -1.96 -1.00
Taranaki -3.09 3.92 -7.00
Otago -3.59 -4.44 0.80
Hawke’s Bay -5.00 -6.72 1.70
North Harbour -6.52 -7.43 0.90
Northland -7.85 -8.26 0.40
Manawatu -9.45 -8.97 -0.50
Southland -10.77 -11.86 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 11 23 – 10 7.80 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 12 33 – 16 18.60 TRUE
3 Manawatu vs. Southland Sep 13 27 – 17 5.00 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Tasman Sep 13 23 – 12 -3.10 FALSE
5 Waikato vs. Auckland Sep 14 42 – 24 -3.90 FALSE
6 Canterbury vs. Otago Sep 14 32 – 22 34.20 TRUE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Sep 15 44 – 7 6.70 TRUE
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Sep 15 31 – 26 7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 18 Bay of Plenty 12.30
2 Auckland vs. Northland Sep 19 Auckland 19.90
3 Otago vs. Manawatu Sep 20 Otago 10.40
4 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Sep 21 Counties Manukau 5.90
5 Wellington vs. Canterbury Sep 21 Canterbury -6.90
6 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 21 Taranaki 4.40
7 Tasman vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 22 Tasman 8.30
8 Southland vs. North Harbour Sep 22 Southland 0.20

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 7, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 4.17 4.47 -0.30
Lions 2.52 -1.22 3.70
Sharks 2.51 3.24 -0.70
Cheetahs -1.73 -2.74 1.00
Blue Bulls -3.89 0.59 -4.50
Griquas -5.73 -6.48 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Lions Sep 13 26 – 23 3.30 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Sep 14 24 – 25 -0.70 TRUE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Sep 14 18 – 29 1.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 20 Western Province 17.40
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Sep 21 Sharks 11.70
3 Lions vs. Blue Bulls Sep 21 Lions 13.90

 

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NRL Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.32 -5.68 17.00
Storm 9.31 9.73 -0.40
Sea Eagles 7.70 4.78 2.90
Rabbitohs 7.05 5.23 1.80
Cowboys 6.60 7.05 -0.40
Knights 6.36 0.44 5.90
Bulldogs 2.16 7.33 -5.20
Titans 2.11 -1.85 4.00
Sharks 1.89 -1.78 3.70
Warriors -0.89 -10.01 9.10
Panthers -2.57 -6.58 4.00
Broncos -5.15 -1.55 -3.60
Dragons -8.18 -0.33 -7.90
Raiders -10.23 2.03 -12.30
Wests Tigers -11.37 -3.71 -7.70
Eels -19.87 -8.82 -11.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 118 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Sep 13 20 – 10 0.30 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 14 20 – 18 -0.77 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Sep 14 4 – 0 3.52 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights Sep 15 6 – 22 4.36 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Sep 20 Sea Eagles 5.80
2 Storm vs. Knights Sep 21 Storm 7.40

 

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