Top 14 Predictions for Round 19
Team Ratings for Round 19
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Stade Toulousain | 7.55 | 7.24 | 0.30 |
Stade Rochelais | 6.06 | 6.40 | -0.30 |
Bordeaux Begles | 3.78 | 4.07 | -0.30 |
Stade Francais | 3.32 | 2.62 | 0.70 |
Toulon | 3.22 | 3.11 | 0.10 |
Racing 92 | 2.77 | 3.42 | -0.70 |
Montpellier | 1.33 | 2.09 | -0.80 |
Castres Olympique | 1.24 | -0.39 | 1.60 |
Section Paloise | 0.23 | -0.44 | 0.70 |
Bayonne | 0.12 | -1.32 | 1.40 |
Clermont | 0.12 | 1.47 | -1.40 |
Lyon | -0.87 | 2.97 | -3.80 |
USA Perpignan | -3.27 | -3.64 | 0.40 |
US Oyonnax | -7.98 | -10.00 | 2.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 126 matches played, 92 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais | Mar 10 | 23 – 3 | 8.40 | TRUE |
2 | Clermont vs. US Oyonnax | Mar 10 | 15 – 15 | 15.60 | FALSE |
3 | Lyon vs. Castres Olympique | Mar 10 | 34 – 19 | 3.60 | TRUE |
4 | Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles | Mar 10 | 10 – 3 | 3.70 | TRUE |
5 | Section Paloise vs. Bayonne | Mar 10 | 42 – 40 | 7.10 | TRUE |
6 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain | Mar 10 | 27 – 17 | -5.30 | FALSE |
7 | Racing 92 vs. Toulon | Mar 11 | 20 – 6 | 5.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 19
Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Toulon vs. Montpellier | Mar 24 | Toulon | 8.40 |
2 | Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 | Mar 24 | Castres Olympique | 5.00 |
3 | Clermont vs. Section Paloise | Mar 24 | Clermont | 6.40 |
4 | Stade Francais vs. Lyon | Mar 24 | Stade Francais | 10.70 |
5 | US Oyonnax vs. USA Perpignan | Mar 24 | US Oyonnax | 1.80 |
6 | Bayonne vs. Stade Rochelais | Mar 24 | Bayonne | 0.60 |
7 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain | Mar 25 | Bordeaux Begles | 2.70 |