NRL Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 14.23 | 14.73 | -0.50 |
| Broncos | 8.38 | 9.07 | -0.70 |
| Storm | 6.03 | 6.15 | -0.10 |
| Roosters | 5.62 | 3.08 | 2.50 |
| Cowboys | 2.91 | 2.47 | 0.40 |
| Sharks | 1.54 | 2.94 | -1.40 |
| Knights | 0.84 | 1.84 | -1.00 |
| Warriors | 0.12 | -0.07 | 0.20 |
| Eels | -0.12 | 0.14 | -0.30 |
| Sea Eagles | -0.12 | -0.48 | 0.40 |
| Rabbitohs | -2.50 | 0.87 | -3.40 |
| Raiders | -2.77 | -4.31 | 1.50 |
| Dolphins | -5.16 | -7.09 | 1.90 |
| Dragons | -7.59 | -6.93 | -0.70 |
| Wests Tigers | -10.27 | -13.15 | 2.90 |
| Bulldogs | -10.92 | -13.35 | 2.40 |
| Titans | -12.21 | -7.89 | -4.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 32 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Panthers | Mar 28 | 16 – 22 | -5.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Mar 29 | 20 – 16 | 12.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Mar 29 | 38 – 12 | 6.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 30 | 20 – 12 | -6.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Titans vs. Dolphins | Mar 30 | 14 – 30 | -2.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Knights | Mar 31 | 20 – 12 | 6.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Raiders | Mar 31 | 36 – 22 | 6.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 01 | 16 – 17 | 15.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Broncos | Apr 04 | Storm | 0.60 |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Roosters | Apr 05 | Roosters | -13.50 |
| 3 | Knights vs. Dragons | Apr 05 | Knights | 11.40 |
| 4 | Rabbitohs vs. Warriors | Apr 06 | Rabbitohs | 4.40 |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Panthers | Apr 06 | Panthers | -11.30 |
| 6 | Dolphins vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 06 | Dolphins | 8.10 |
| 7 | Cowboys vs. Titans | Apr 07 | Cowboys | 18.10 |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Eels | Apr 07 | Raiders | 0.30 |