Posts filed under Sports statistics (1809)

November 10, 2020

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 12.46 15.13 -2.70
Auckland 8.56 6.75 1.80
Canterbury 6.80 8.40 -1.60
Bay of Plenty 5.94 8.21 -2.30
Wellington 5.44 6.47 -1.00
North Harbour 5.26 2.87 2.40
Waikato 2.84 1.31 1.50
Hawke’s Bay 2.77 0.91 1.90
Otago -2.59 -4.03 1.40
Taranaki -3.26 -4.42 1.20
Northland -7.87 -8.71 0.80
Southland -10.33 -14.04 3.70
Counties Manukau -11.20 -8.18 -3.00
Manawatu -14.70 -10.57 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Otago Nov 06 32 – 15 -7.80 FALSE
2 Auckland vs. Northland Nov 07 24 – 20 21.70 TRUE
3 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Nov 07 32 – 5 18.20 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Canterbury Nov 07 0 – 29 13.50 FALSE
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Nov 08 34 – 18 -2.00 FALSE
6 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Nov 08 30 – 33 0.50 FALSE
7 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Nov 08 19 – 35 -7.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Southland Nov 13 Counties Manukau 2.10
2 Northland vs. Waikato Nov 14 Waikato -7.70
3 Otago vs. Tasman Nov 14 Tasman -12.00
4 Wellington vs. Manawatu Nov 14 Wellington 23.10
5 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Nov 15 Bay of Plenty 3.70
6 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Nov 15 Hawke’s Bay -3.00
7 Canterbury vs. Auckland Nov 15 Canterbury 1.20

 

View comments (2)
November 3, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.70 16.52 1.20
Munster 9.27 9.90 -0.60
Ulster 5.68 4.58 1.10
Edinburgh 4.88 5.49 -0.60
Glasgow Warriors 4.57 5.66 -1.10
Scarlets 1.68 1.98 -0.30
Connacht 1.08 0.70 0.40
Cardiff Blues 0.60 0.08 0.50
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -2.48 -2.82 0.30
Treviso -3.87 -3.50 -0.40
Dragons -8.69 -7.85 -0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.02 -15.37 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Munster Nov 02 16 – 28 -11.30 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Nov 02 3 – 6 4.70 FALSE
3 Cardiff Blues vs. Ulster Nov 03 7 – 11 2.60 FALSE
4 Zebre vs. Ospreys Nov 03 23 – 17 -7.10 FALSE
5 Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster Nov 03 19 – 32 -5.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Treviso vs. Munster Nov 08 Munster -6.60
2 Dragons vs. Connacht Nov 08 Connacht -3.30
3 Ospreys vs. Leinster Nov 09 Leinster -13.70
4 Scarlets vs. Zebre Nov 09 Scarlets 23.20
5 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Blues Nov 10 Edinburgh 10.80
6 Ulster vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 10 Ulster 7.60

 

November 2, 2020

Top 14 Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

This is a new competition which I have had in mind for some time since it is one of the three top European competitions, the other two being the English Premiership and the Pro 14 (not solely European usually but happens to be this year so far).

I ran through the predictions for the first 7 rounds to get to this round but decided not to publish them. You will have to take it on trust that I didn’t fake it. I can report that the first couple of rounds were pretty dodgy, starting with only 50% correct. I expect to get a bit over 70% correct longer term in this competition based on my computations. I have data from the 2012-2013 season through to the incomplete 2019-2020 season which I used to create my initial ratings and to select parameters for the model.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 6.46 6.21 0.20
Lyon Rugby 6.38 5.61 0.80
Stade Toulousain 5.14 4.80 0.30
La Rochelle 5.01 2.32 2.70
Clermont Auvergne 4.45 3.22 1.20
RC Toulonnais 3.24 3.56 -0.30
Bordeaux-Begles 2.62 2.83 -0.20
Montpellier 2.55 2.30 0.20
Stade Francais Paris -1.55 -3.22 1.70
Castres Olympique -2.11 -0.47 -1.60
Section Paloise -3.79 -4.48 0.70
Brive -4.17 -3.26 -0.90
Aviron Bayonnais -4.88 -4.13 -0.80
SU Agen -8.79 -4.72 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Clermont Auvergne Oct 31 21 – 43 -1.80 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Racing-Metro 92 Oct 31 10 – 13 -3.10 TRUE
3 Bordeaux-Begles vs. SU Agen Oct 31 71 – 5 14.20 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. La Rochelle Nov 01 24 – 35 -2.60 TRUE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 01 48 – 14 -3.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 RC Toulonnais vs. Brive Nov 06 RC Toulonnais 12.90
2 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Nov 07 Stade Toulousain 12.80
3 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 07 Bordeaux-Begles 13.00
4 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Paris Nov 07 Montpellier 9.60
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Section Paloise Nov 07 Racing-Metro 92 15.70
6 SU Agen vs. Lyon Rugby Nov 08 Lyon Rugby -9.70
7 La Rochelle vs. Clermont Auvergne Nov 08 La Rochelle 6.10

 

Super Rugby Unlocked Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 2.54 4.01 -1.50
Bulls 1.33 -1.45 2.80
Stormers -1.36 1.00 -2.40
Lions -2.49 -4.82 2.30
Cheetahs -8.43 -10.00 1.60
Pumas -11.27 -10.00 -1.30
Griquas -11.58 -10.00 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 11 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Griquas Oct 30 61 – 31 11.10 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Oct 31 19 – 42 -7.10 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Oct 31 39 – 6 3.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Nov 06 Sharks 15.50
2 Griquas vs. Stormers Nov 07 Stormers -5.70
3 Lions vs. Bulls Nov 07 Lions 0.70

 

View comments (1)

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 14.88 15.13 -0.20
Auckland 9.71 6.75 3.00
Wellington 6.61 6.47 0.10
Bay of Plenty 5.65 8.21 -2.60
North Harbour 4.62 2.87 1.70
Canterbury 4.38 8.40 -4.00
Waikato 3.13 1.31 1.80
Hawke’s Bay 1.60 0.91 0.70
Otago -1.06 -4.03 3.00
Taranaki -3.90 -4.42 0.50
Northland -9.02 -8.71 -0.30
Counties Manukau -10.56 -8.18 -2.40
Southland -11.86 -14.04 2.20
Manawatu -14.06 -10.57 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. Otago Oct 30 16 – 23 10.70 FALSE
2 Wellington vs. Tasman Oct 31 3 – 19 -3.60 TRUE
3 Northland vs. North Harbour Oct 31 8 – 24 -9.70 TRUE
4 Auckland vs. Waikato Oct 31 31 – 10 7.80 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Nov 01 22 – 17 7.60 TRUE
6 Manawatu vs. Southland Nov 01 24 – 12 -1.00 FALSE
7 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Nov 01 27 – 31 11.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Otago Nov 06 Otago -7.80
2 Auckland vs. Northland Nov 07 Auckland 21.70
3 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Nov 07 North Harbour 18.20
4 Tasman vs. Canterbury Nov 07 Tasman 13.50
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Nov 08 Wellington -2.00
6 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Nov 08 Waikato 0.50
7 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Nov 08 Taranaki -7.20

 

View comments (1)
October 27, 2020

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 14.03 15.13 -1.10
Auckland 8.82 6.75 2.10
Wellington 7.46 6.47 1.00
Bay of Plenty 5.91 8.21 -2.30
Canterbury 5.54 8.40 -2.90
North Harbour 4.14 2.87 1.30
Waikato 4.02 1.31 2.70
Hawke’s Bay 1.34 0.91 0.40
Otago -2.21 -4.03 1.80
Taranaki -2.86 -4.42 1.60
Northland -8.54 -8.71 0.20
Southland -10.98 -14.04 3.10
Counties Manukau -11.60 -8.18 -3.40
Manawatu -14.94 -10.57 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Northland Oct 23 30 – 7 7.20 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Oct 24 44 – 8 -0.90 FALSE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Oct 24 47 – 12 16.90 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Auckland Oct 24 23 – 22 -2.20 FALSE
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Oct 25 20 – 53 -13.60 TRUE
6 Tasman vs. Southland Oct 25 47 – 10 26.50 TRUE
7 Waikato vs. Taranaki Oct 25 27 – 20 10.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Otago Oct 30 Canterbury 10.70
2 Wellington vs. Tasman Oct 31 Tasman -3.60
3 Northland vs. North Harbour Oct 31 North Harbour -9.70
4 Auckland vs. Waikato Oct 31 Auckland 7.80
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Nov 01 Bay of Plenty 7.60
6 Manawatu vs. Southland Nov 01 Southland -1.00
7 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Nov 01 Taranaki 11.70

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.00 16.52 0.50
Munster 9.21 9.90 -0.70
Glasgow Warriors 5.26 5.66 -0.40
Ulster 5.09 4.58 0.50
Edinburgh 4.18 5.49 -1.30
Scarlets 2.38 1.98 0.40
Cardiff Blues 1.19 0.08 1.10
Connacht 1.08 0.70 0.40
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -1.94 -2.82 0.90
Treviso -3.87 -3.50 -0.40
Dragons -8.63 -7.85 -0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.57 -15.37 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Zebre Oct 24 63 – 8 37.70 TRUE
2 Treviso vs. Scarlets Oct 24 3 – 10 1.80 FALSE
3 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 25 23 – 15 -1.60 FALSE
4 Ulster vs. Dragons Oct 26 40 – 17 19.60 TRUE
5 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Oct 26 26 – 37 11.20 FALSE
6 Munster vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 27 38 – 27 15.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Munster Nov 02 Munster -11.30
2 Connacht vs. Treviso Nov 02 Connacht 11.50
3 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Nov 02 Scarlets 4.70
4 Cardiff Blues vs. Ulster Nov 03 Cardiff Blues 2.60
5 Zebre vs. Ospreys Nov 03 Ospreys -7.10
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster Nov 03 Leinster -5.20

 

Super Rugby Unlocked Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 1.46 4.01 -2.50
Stormers 0.54 1.00 -0.50
Bulls -0.57 -1.45 0.90
Lions -3.76 -4.82 1.10
Cheetahs -8.43 -10.00 1.60
Pumas -10.19 -10.00 -0.20
Griquas -10.31 -10.00 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Stormers Oct 23 37 – 42 -6.50 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Sharks Oct 24 41 – 14 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Griquas Oct 30 Lions 11.10
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Oct 31 Sharks -7.10
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Oct 31 Bulls 3.40

 

October 20, 2020

Super Rugby Unlocked Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 3.27 4.01 -0.70
Stormers 0.68 1.00 -0.30
Bulls -2.38 -1.45 -0.90
Lions -3.76 -4.82 1.10
Cheetahs -8.43 -10.00 1.60
Griquas -10.31 -10.00 -0.30
Pumas -10.33 -10.00 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Oct 10 19 – 17 -2.30 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Pumas Oct 11 21 – 27 6.20 FALSE
3 Stormers vs. Lions Oct 11 23 – 17 9.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Stormers Oct 23 Stormers -6.50
2 Lions vs. Cheetahs Oct 24 Lions 9.20
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Oct 24 Sharks -1.20

 

Super Rugby Unlocked Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 3.27 4.01 -0.70
Stormers 1.00 1.00 0.00
Bulls -1.99 -1.45 -0.50
Lions -4.08 -4.82 0.70
Cheetahs -8.82 -10.00 1.20
Griquas -9.46 -10.00 0.50
Pumas -11.18 -10.00 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Oct 17 19 – 16 13.30 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Oct 18 53 – 31 4.50 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Griquas Oct 18 30 – 23 13.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Oct 10 Bulls -2.30
2 Griquas vs. Pumas Oct 11 Griquas 6.20
3 Stormers vs. Lions Oct 11 Stormers 9.60

 

« Later posts
Earlier posts »