Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

September 1, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

As an indication of the care needed at present in determining home ground advantage, the comprehensive scores site flashscore.com.au still has the Rebels v Waratahs game as being played in Melbourne. (Click on the match result to see the scorers and times and match details at the bottom.) Fortunately I checked beforehand that it was to be played in Sydney so I gave the Waratahs home ground advantage and predicted them to win. Otherwise I would have predicted the Rebels, even if played on a neutral ground.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 2.90 4.67 -1.80
Reds 0.41 -0.31 0.70
Rebels -3.26 -5.52 2.30
Waratahs -4.64 -7.12 2.50
Force -13.69 -10.00 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brumbies vs. Force Aug 28 31 – 14 22.00 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Aug 29 38 – 32 2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Force Sep 04 Rebels 10.40
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Sep 05 Reds 2.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.90 7.99 3.90
Saracens 8.31 9.34 -1.00
Sale Sharks 6.97 0.17 6.80
Wasps 2.25 0.31 1.90
Bath 0.62 1.10 -0.50
Gloucester 0.27 0.58 -0.30
Bristol -0.21 -2.77 2.60
Northampton Saints -1.79 0.25 -2.00
Harlequins -1.83 -0.81 -1.00
Leicester Tigers -4.85 -1.76 -3.10
Worcester Warriors -7.31 -2.69 -4.60
London Irish -8.13 -5.51 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 102 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Aug 30 40 – 7 9.30 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Aug 30 30 – 17 3.40 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors Aug 31 59 – 7 20.70 TRUE
4 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Aug 31 46 – 30 8.80 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Saracens Aug 31 12 – 40 -10.10 TRUE
6 Bath vs. Wasps Sep 01 23 – 27 3.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Sep 05 Bristol -2.60
2 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 05 Exeter Chiefs -9.20
3 Saracens vs. Wasps Sep 05 Saracens 10.60
4 Harlequins vs. Bath Sep 05 Harlequins 2.10
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Sep 06 Sale Sharks -7.30
6 Gloucester vs. London Irish Sep 06 Gloucester 12.90

 

Pro14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.57 12.20 4.40
Munster 11.14 10.73 0.40
Glasgow Warriors 6.87 9.66 -2.80
Edinburgh 4.28 1.24 3.00
Ulster 3.66 1.89 1.80
Scarlets 3.16 3.91 -0.70
Connacht 0.34 2.68 -2.30
Cardiff Blues -0.36 0.54 -0.90
Cheetahs -0.46 -3.38 2.90
Ospreys -3.38 2.80 -6.20
Treviso -4.11 -1.33 -2.80
Dragons -8.03 -9.31 1.30
Zebre -14.76 -16.93 2.20
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Aug 29 15 – 3 6.60 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Scarlets Aug 30 20 – 41 -4.90 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Leinster Aug 30 10 – 28 -6.90 TRUE
4 Munster vs. Connacht Aug 31 49 – 12 14.20 TRUE
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Aug 31 29 – 20 7.80 TRUE
6 Zebre vs. Treviso Aug 31 9 – 16 -5.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Munster Sep 05 Leinster 10.40
2 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Sep 06 Edinburgh 7.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.51 12.73 1.80
Roosters 11.84 12.25 -0.40
Panthers 6.74 -0.13 6.90
Raiders 6.11 7.06 -0.90
Rabbitohs 5.64 2.85 2.80
Eels 3.83 2.80 1.00
Sharks 1.01 1.81 -0.80
Knights -1.67 -5.92 4.30
Warriors -3.03 -5.17 2.10
Sea Eagles -3.11 1.05 -4.20
Wests Tigers -3.24 -0.18 -3.10
Dragons -4.11 -6.14 2.00
Bulldogs -6.27 -2.52 -3.80
Cowboys -7.18 -3.95 -3.20
Titans -10.99 -12.99 2.00
Broncos -12.07 -5.53 -6.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 27 0 – 38 3.50 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 28 10 – 14 10.40 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 28 58 – 12 23.90 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Warriors Aug 29 6 – 36 9.00 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Cowboys Aug 29 28 – 12 9.40 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 29 30 – 6 10.60 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Aug 30 30 – 6 16.70 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 30 34 – 20 14.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Sep 03 Panthers -16.80
2 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 04 Sharks -0.70
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Sep 04 Storm -6.90
4 Bulldogs vs. Titans Sep 05 Bulldogs 6.70
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Sep 05 Sea Eagles 2.10
6 Raiders vs. Roosters Sep 05 Roosters -3.70
7 Eels vs. Warriors Sep 06 Eels 11.40
8 Cowboys vs. Dragons Sep 06 Dragons -1.10

 

August 30, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

I got caught out a bit this round with games being played earlier in the week and then again on the weekend. As usual my predictions are what they would have been before the games were played, the predictions are produced by running my algorithm over the past data and information about home grounds.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.41 7.99 2.40
Saracens 7.39 9.34 -1.90
Sale Sharks 5.79 0.17 5.60
Wasps 1.79 0.31 1.50
Bath 1.08 1.10 -0.00
Bristol 0.96 -2.77 3.70
Gloucester -0.16 0.58 -0.70
Northampton Saints -1.24 0.25 -1.50
Harlequins -2.38 -0.81 -1.60
Leicester Tigers -4.42 -1.76 -2.70
Worcester Warriors -5.81 -2.69 -3.10
London Irish -7.20 -5.51 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks Aug 26 11 – 20 1.70 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Aug 26 22 – 25 -5.30 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Aug 27 13 – 7 7.50 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Aug 27 36 – 20 11.50 TRUE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Aug 27 29 – 14 -0.60 FALSE
6 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Aug 27 3 – 18 4.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Aug 30 Sale Sharks 9.30
2 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Aug 30 Harlequins 3.40
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors Aug 31 Exeter Chiefs 20.70
4 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Aug 31 Gloucester 8.80
5 London Irish vs. Saracens Aug 31 Saracens -10.10
6 Bath vs. Wasps Sep 01 Bath 3.80

 

August 25, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 3.34 4.67 -1.30
Reds 0.41 -0.31 0.70
Rebels -2.94 -5.52 2.60
Waratahs -4.96 -7.12 2.20
Force -14.14 -10.00 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Reds vs. Force Aug 21 57 – 5 14.30 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Aug 22 38 – 11 10.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brumbies vs. Force Aug 28 Brumbies 22.00
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Aug 29 Waratahs 2.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.59 7.99 2.60
Saracens 7.10 9.34 -2.20
Sale Sharks 5.19 0.17 5.00
Wasps 2.39 0.31 2.10
Bristol 0.78 -2.77 3.60
Gloucester 0.13 0.58 -0.50
Bath 0.09 1.10 -1.00
Northampton Saints -0.26 0.25 -0.50
Harlequins -1.55 -0.81 -0.70
Leicester Tigers -4.29 -1.76 -2.50
Worcester Warriors -6.64 -2.69 -4.00
London Irish -7.32 -5.51 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Aug 22 22 – 32 0.30 FALSE
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Aug 22 24 – 33 5.40 FALSE
3 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Aug 22 32 – 17 13.20 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Aug 22 38 – 24 13.00 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Aug 22 3 – 27 -0.20 TRUE
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Aug 23 16 – 38 2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks Aug 26 Wasps 1.70
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Aug 26 Exeter Chiefs -5.30
3 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Aug 27 Leicester Tigers 7.50
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Aug 27 Saracens 11.50
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Aug 27 Harlequins -0.60
6 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Aug 27 Northampton Saints 4.20

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.08 12.20 3.90
Munster 10.34 10.73 -0.40
Glasgow Warriors 6.39 9.66 -3.30
Edinburgh 4.76 1.24 3.50
Ulster 4.14 1.89 2.20
Scarlets 2.53 3.91 -1.40
Connacht 1.14 2.68 -1.50
Cheetahs -0.46 -3.38 2.90
Cardiff Blues -0.47 0.54 -1.00
Ospreys -3.27 2.80 -6.10
Treviso -4.26 -1.33 -2.90
Dragons -7.40 -9.31 1.90
Zebre -14.61 -16.93 2.30
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 95 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Treviso vs. Zebre Aug 22 13 – 17 16.90 FALSE
2 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Blues Aug 23 32 – 12 6.90 TRUE
3 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Aug 23 15 – 30 4.80 FALSE
4 Leinster vs. Munster Aug 23 27 – 25 11.60 TRUE
5 Ospreys vs. Dragons Aug 23 20 – 20 10.00 FALSE
6 Connacht vs. Ulster Aug 24 26 – 20 1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Aug 29 Glasgow Warriors 6.60
2 Dragons vs. Scarlets Aug 30 Scarlets -4.90
3 Ulster vs. Leinster Aug 30 Leinster -6.90
4 Munster vs. Connacht Aug 31 Munster 14.20
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Aug 31 Cardiff Blues 7.80
6 Zebre vs. Treviso Aug 31 Treviso -5.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.06 12.73 1.30
Roosters 10.82 12.25 -1.40
Raiders 6.16 7.06 -0.90
Panthers 6.04 -0.13 6.20
Eels 5.46 2.80 2.70
Rabbitohs 4.00 2.85 1.20
Sharks 0.59 1.81 -1.20
Knights -0.11 -5.92 5.80
Wests Tigers -2.54 -0.18 -2.40
Sea Eagles -2.67 1.05 -3.70
Dragons -3.37 -6.14 2.80
Warriors -4.59 -5.17 0.60
Bulldogs -6.32 -2.52 -3.80
Cowboys -6.77 -3.95 -2.80
Broncos -11.05 -5.53 -5.50
Titans -11.72 -12.99 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Storm Aug 20 14 – 0 -8.70 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Sharks Aug 21 38 – 12 5.50 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 21 24 – 28 -6.00 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Raiders Aug 22 16 – 36 -15.20 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Aug 22 16 – 38 -10.10 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 56 – 16 5.80 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Aug 23 14 – 20 3.90 FALSE
8 Knights vs. Cowboys Aug 23 12 – 0 8.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 27 Eels 3.50
2 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 28 Dragons 10.40
3 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 28 Roosters 23.90
4 Knights vs. Warriors Aug 29 Knights 9.00
5 Sharks vs. Cowboys Aug 29 Sharks 9.40
6 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 29 Panthers 10.60
7 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Aug 30 Storm 16.70
8 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 30 Raiders 14.50

 

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August 21, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.52 12.20 4.30
Munster 9.90 10.73 -0.80
Glasgow Warriors 5.66 9.66 -4.00
Edinburgh 5.49 1.24 4.20
Ulster 4.58 1.89 2.70
Scarlets 1.98 3.91 -1.90
Connacht 0.70 2.68 -2.00
Cardiff Blues 0.08 0.54 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.46 -3.38 2.90
Ospreys -2.82 2.80 -5.60
Treviso -3.50 -1.33 -2.20
Dragons -7.85 -9.31 1.50
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20
Zebre -15.37 -16.93 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Treviso Feb 16 25 – 37 2.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Treviso vs. Zebre Aug 22 Treviso 16.90
2 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Blues Aug 23 Scarlets 6.90
3 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Aug 23 Edinburgh 4.80
4 Leinster vs. Munster Aug 23 Leinster 11.60
5 Ospreys vs. Dragons Aug 23 Ospreys 10.00
6 Connacht vs. Ulster Aug 24 Connacht 1.10

 

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