Posts filed under Sports statistics (1809)

October 20, 2020

Super Rugby Unlocked Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

Another competition where I missed the start. I am surprised my South African readers didn’t alert me, or perhaps it crept up on them. I had been checking on whether the Currie Cup would be running but hadn’t got wind of this competition.

As before when I have missed the start, for completeness I will post my predictions for the games missed.

Note that there are difficulties with this competition due to the presence of three teams without recent Super Rugby results. I have followed my usual practice of assigning a rating of -10 in such cases. (As was done with the Force in Super Rugby Australia for example.)

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 4.01 4.01 0.00
Stormers 1.00 1.00 0.00
Bulls -1.45 -1.45 0.00
Lions -4.82 -4.82 0.00
Cheetahs -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Griquas -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Pumas -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Lions Oct 17 Sharks 13.30
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Oct 18 Cheetahs 4.50
3 Bulls vs. Griquas Oct 18 Bulls 13.10

 

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.32 12.73 1.60
Roosters 10.25 12.25 -2.00
Panthers 9.10 -0.13 9.20
Rabbitohs 7.73 2.85 4.90
Raiders 6.98 7.06 -0.10
Eels 1.68 2.80 -1.10
Sharks -0.76 1.81 -2.60
Warriors -1.84 -5.17 3.30
Knights -2.61 -5.92 3.30
Wests Tigers -3.07 -0.18 -2.90
Sea Eagles -4.77 1.05 -5.80
Dragons -4.95 -6.14 1.20
Titans -7.22 -12.99 5.80
Bulldogs -7.62 -2.52 -5.10
Cowboys -8.05 -3.95 -4.10
Broncos -11.16 -5.53 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Raiders Oct 16 30 – 10 5.90 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Oct 17 20 – 16 3.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Storm Oct 25 Storm -3.20

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 13.29 15.13 -1.80
Auckland 9.08 6.75 2.30
Canterbury 7.68 8.40 -0.70
Wellington 6.22 6.47 -0.20
Waikato 4.31 1.31 3.00
North Harbour 3.87 2.87 1.00
Bay of Plenty 3.76 8.21 -4.40
Hawke’s Bay 0.17 0.91 -0.70
Taranaki -3.15 -4.42 1.30
Otago -3.26 -4.03 0.80
Northland -7.50 -8.71 1.20
Southland -10.24 -14.04 3.80
Counties Manukau -10.36 -8.18 -2.20
Manawatu -13.77 -10.57 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Oct 16 33 – 17 9.70 TRUE
2 Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 17 35 – 53 -13.90 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Tasman Oct 17 31 – 10 -4.30 FALSE
4 Southland vs. Taranaki Oct 17 9 – 17 -3.40 TRUE
5 Canterbury vs. Waikato Oct 18 15 – 16 7.60 FALSE
6 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Oct 18 40 – 22 8.80 TRUE
7 Wellington vs. North Harbour Oct 18 25 – 20 5.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Northland Oct 23 Otago 7.20
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Oct 24 Canterbury -0.90
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Oct 24 Hawke’s Bay 16.90
4 North Harbour vs. Auckland Oct 24 Auckland -2.20
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Oct 25 Wellington -13.60
6 Tasman vs. Southland Oct 25 Tasman 26.50
7 Waikato vs. Taranaki Oct 25 Waikato 10.50

 

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October 13, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wasps 8.78 0.31 8.50
Exeter Chiefs 8.09 7.99 0.10
Sale Sharks 6.91 0.17 6.70
Saracens 6.51 9.34 -2.80
Bristol 2.96 -2.77 5.70
Bath 2.89 1.10 1.80
Harlequins -0.67 -0.81 0.10
Gloucester -0.72 0.58 -1.30
Northampton Saints -3.94 0.25 -4.20
Worcester Warriors -6.74 -2.69 -4.10
Leicester Tigers -7.87 -1.76 -6.10
London Irish -9.98 -5.51 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 132 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Oct 11 35 – 6 7.50 TRUE
2 Wasps vs. Bristol Oct 11 47 – 24 8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Oct 25 Wasps -0.70

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.34 16.52 -0.20
Munster 9.59 9.90 -0.30
Glasgow Warriors 5.70 5.66 0.00
Edinburgh 4.97 5.49 -0.50
Ulster 4.79 4.58 0.20
Scarlets 1.58 1.98 -0.40
Cardiff Blues 0.81 0.08 0.70
Connacht 0.29 0.70 -0.40
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -2.37 -2.82 0.40
Treviso -3.08 -3.50 0.40
Dragons -8.33 -7.85 -0.50
Zebre -14.90 -15.37 0.50
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Zebre Oct 10 26 – 18 14.20 TRUE
2 Treviso vs. Leinster Oct 11 25 – 37 -13.10 TRUE
3 Ospreys vs. Ulster Oct 11 12 – 24 0.40 FALSE
4 Cardiff Blues vs. Connacht Oct 11 29 – 7 5.80 TRUE
5 Munster vs. Edinburgh Oct 11 25 – 23 12.00 TRUE
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Scarlets Oct 12 20 – 7 10.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Zebre Oct 24 Leinster 37.70
2 Treviso vs. Scarlets Oct 24 Treviso 1.80
3 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 25 Glasgow Warriors -1.60
4 Ulster vs. Dragons Oct 26 Ulster 19.60
5 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Oct 26 Edinburgh 11.20
6 Munster vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 27 Munster 15.30

 

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.59 12.73 0.90
Roosters 10.25 12.25 -2.00
Panthers 9.02 -0.13 9.20
Rabbitohs 7.81 2.85 5.00
Raiders 7.70 7.06 0.60
Eels 1.68 2.80 -1.10
Sharks -0.76 1.81 -2.60
Warriors -1.84 -5.17 3.30
Knights -2.61 -5.92 3.30
Wests Tigers -3.07 -0.18 -2.90
Sea Eagles -4.77 1.05 -5.80
Dragons -4.95 -6.14 1.20
Titans -7.22 -12.99 5.80
Bulldogs -7.62 -2.52 -5.10
Cowboys -8.05 -3.95 -4.10
Broncos -11.16 -5.53 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 166 matches played, 114 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Raiders Oct 09 18 – 22 5.60 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Oct 10 24 – 38 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Raiders Oct 16 Storm 5.90
2 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Oct 17 Panthers 3.20

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 14.85 15.13 -0.30
Canterbury 8.31 8.40 -0.10
Auckland 7.53 6.75 0.80
Wellington 6.26 6.47 -0.20
North Harbour 3.83 2.87 1.00
Waikato 3.69 1.31 2.40
Bay of Plenty 3.43 8.21 -4.80
Hawke’s Bay -0.30 0.91 -1.20
Taranaki -3.52 -4.42 0.90
Otago -3.92 -4.03 0.10
Northland -7.03 -8.71 1.70
Counties Manukau -9.70 -8.18 -1.50
Southland -9.88 -14.04 4.20
Manawatu -13.44 -10.57 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Oct 09 10 – 34 -17.80 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 10 28 – 29 -9.20 TRUE
3 Wellington vs. Otago Oct 10 34 – 35 15.30 FALSE
4 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Oct 10 36 – 13 15.20 TRUE
5 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 11 46 – 10 3.30 TRUE
6 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 11 33 – 7 12.60 TRUE
7 Northland vs. Southland Oct 11 18 – 14 6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Oct 16 Hawke’s Bay 9.70
2 Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 17 Bay of Plenty -13.90
3 Auckland vs. Tasman Oct 17 Tasman -4.30
4 Southland vs. Taranaki Oct 17 Taranaki -3.40
5 Canterbury vs. Waikato Oct 18 Canterbury 7.60
6 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Oct 18 Otago 8.80
7 Wellington vs. North Harbour Oct 18 Wellington 5.40

 

October 10, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wasps 8.02 0.31 7.70
Exeter Chiefs 7.01 7.99 -1.00
Sale Sharks 6.91 0.17 6.70
Saracens 6.51 9.34 -2.80
Bath 3.97 1.10 2.90
Bristol 3.72 -2.77 6.50
Harlequins -0.67 -0.81 0.10
Gloucester -0.72 0.58 -1.30
Northampton Saints -3.94 0.25 -4.20
Worcester Warriors -6.74 -2.69 -4.10
Leicester Tigers -7.87 -1.76 -6.10
London Irish -9.98 -5.51 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 130 matches played, 86 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Oct 05 26 – 32 -2.10 TRUE
2 London Irish vs. Bristol Oct 05 7 – 36 -7.00 TRUE
3 Saracens vs. Bath Oct 05 17 – 17 8.00 FALSE
4 Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 05 46 – 5 1.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Oct 11 Exeter Chiefs 7.50
2 Wasps vs. Bristol Oct 11 Wasps 8.80

 

October 7, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.44 16.52 -0.10
Munster 10.04 9.90 0.10
Glasgow Warriors 5.44 5.66 -0.20
Edinburgh 4.52 5.49 -1.00
Ulster 4.26 4.58 -0.30
Scarlets 1.84 1.98 -0.10
Connacht 0.92 0.70 0.20
Cardiff Blues 0.17 0.08 0.10
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -1.85 -2.82 1.00
Treviso -3.18 -3.50 0.30
Dragons -7.77 -7.85 0.10
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.46 -15.37 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 03 6 – 16 -8.90 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Treviso Oct 03 35 – 24 14.60 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Dragons Oct 03 35 – 5 30.90 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Munster Oct 04 27 – 30 -1.40 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 04 28 – 24 1.50 TRUE
6 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Oct 04 10 – 25 14.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Zebre Oct 10 Dragons 14.20
2 Treviso vs. Leinster Oct 11 Leinster -13.10
3 Ospreys vs. Ulster Oct 11 Ospreys 0.40
4 Cardiff Blues vs. Connacht Oct 11 Cardiff Blues 5.80
5 Munster vs. Edinburgh Oct 11 Munster 12.00
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Scarlets Oct 12 Glasgow Warriors 10.10

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

Yes, the games have already been played but these are my predictions posted here for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.52 16.52 0.00
Munster 9.90 9.90 -0.00
Glasgow Warriors 5.66 5.66 -0.00
Edinburgh 5.49 5.49 0.00
Ulster 4.58 4.58 -0.00
Scarlets 1.98 1.98 -0.00
Connacht 0.70 0.70 -0.00
Cardiff Blues 0.08 0.08 0.00
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -2.82 -2.82 -0.00
Treviso -3.50 -3.50 0.00
Dragons -7.85 -7.85 0.00
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.37 -15.37 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 03 Cardiff Blues -8.90
2 Ulster vs. Treviso Oct 03 Ulster 14.60
3 Leinster vs. Dragons Oct 03 Leinster 30.90
4 Scarlets vs. Munster Oct 04 Munster -1.40
5 Connacht vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 04 Connacht 1.50
6 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Oct 04 Edinburgh 14.80

 

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