Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

September 15, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for The Final

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Team Ratings for The Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Reds 1.75 -0.31 2.10
Brumbies 1.74 4.67 -2.90
Rebels -4.03 -5.52 1.50
Waratahs -4.64 -7.12 2.50
Force -13.11 -10.00 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Reds vs. Rebels Sep 12 25 – 13 9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for The Final

Here are the predictions for The Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brumbies vs. Reds Sep 19 Brumbies 4.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.17 7.99 2.20
Saracens 8.20 9.34 -1.10
Sale Sharks 6.09 0.17 5.90
Wasps 5.79 0.31 5.50
Bath 3.29 1.10 2.20
Bristol 1.39 -2.77 4.20
Gloucester -0.50 0.58 -1.10
Harlequins -0.56 -0.81 0.20
Northampton Saints -3.12 0.25 -3.40
Leicester Tigers -6.33 -1.76 -4.60
Worcester Warriors -7.96 -2.69 -5.30
London Irish -10.23 -5.51 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wasps vs. Bristol Sep 13 59 – 35 7.10 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Sep 13 28 – 24 0.80 TRUE
3 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 14 25 – 40 4.20 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Sep 14 22 – 37 9.80 FALSE
5 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 14 40 – 17 0.30 TRUE
6 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Sep 15 15 – 28 6.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Sep 23 Bath 8.30
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 29 Bristol 12.20
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish Sep 30 Exeter Chiefs 24.90
4 Harlequins vs. Wasps Oct 01 Wasps -1.80
5 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Oct 01 Sale Sharks -4.70
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Saracens Oct 01 Saracens -11.70

 

NRL Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.06 12.73 1.30
Roosters 12.92 12.25 0.70
Panthers 7.15 -0.13 7.30
Raiders 6.79 7.06 -0.30
Rabbitohs 5.40 2.85 2.60
Eels 2.79 2.80 -0.00
Sharks -0.13 1.81 -1.90
Knights -1.21 -5.92 4.70
Wests Tigers -2.63 -0.18 -2.40
Warriors -2.78 -5.17 2.40
Sea Eagles -2.81 1.05 -3.90
Dragons -5.26 -6.14 0.90
Cowboys -6.66 -3.95 -2.70
Bulldogs -7.45 -2.52 -4.90
Titans -9.89 -12.99 3.10
Broncos -12.30 -5.53 -6.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Sep 10 24 – 26 -6.70 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 11 20 – 32 -1.50 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Eels Sep 11 20 – 2 5.00 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Raiders Sep 12 8 – 37 -8.10 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Broncos Sep 12 18 – 6 3.40 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Knights Sep 12 42 – 12 14.60 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Cowboys Sep 13 36 – 20 21.40 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Warriors Sep 13 22 – 14 6.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Sep 17 Rabbitohs 14.90
2 Cowboys vs. Panthers Sep 18 Panthers -11.80
3 Eels vs. Broncos Sep 18 Eels 17.10
4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Sep 19 Sea Eagles 9.10
5 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Sep 19 Storm 16.70
6 Roosters vs. Sharks Sep 19 Roosters 15.00
7 Raiders vs. Warriors Sep 20 Raiders 14.10
8 Knights vs. Dragons Sep 20 Knights 6.10

 

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Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 14.85 15.13 -0.30
Canterbury 9.20 8.40 0.80
Auckland 8.26 6.75 1.50
Bay of Plenty 7.12 8.21 -1.10
Wellington 4.81 6.47 -1.70
Waikato 2.97 1.31 1.70
North Harbour 2.08 2.87 -0.80
Hawke’s Bay -0.26 0.91 -1.20
Taranaki -3.33 -4.42 1.10
Otago -5.53 -4.03 -1.50
Northland -7.88 -8.71 0.80
Counties Manukau -7.90 -8.18 0.30
Manawatu -11.41 -10.57 -0.80
Southland -12.87 -14.04 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 11 29 – 43 -2.50 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 12 53 – 28 -2.20 FALSE
3 Otago vs. Auckland Sep 12 6 – 38 -7.80 TRUE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Sep 12 24 – 41 -20.30 TRUE
5 Northland vs. Manawatu Sep 13 43 – 26 4.90 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 13 36 – 29 -9.60 FALSE
7 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 13 16 – 10 -11.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Northland Sep 18 Tasman 25.70
2 Waikato vs. North Harbour Sep 19 Waikato 3.90
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Sep 19 Canterbury 15.50
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 19 Bay of Plenty 23.00
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 20 Hawke’s Bay 10.60
6 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 20 Otago -2.90
7 Auckland vs. Wellington Sep 20 Auckland 6.40

 

September 11, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.30 7.99 3.30
Sale Sharks 7.32 0.17 7.10
Saracens 7.06 9.34 -2.30
Wasps 4.90 0.31 4.60
Bristol 2.28 -2.77 5.10
Bath 2.06 1.10 1.00
Gloucester 0.50 0.58 -0.10
Harlequins -1.56 -0.81 -0.80
Northampton Saints -2.86 0.25 -3.10
Leicester Tigers -6.59 -1.76 -4.80
Worcester Warriors -8.94 -2.69 -6.30
London Irish -9.24 -5.51 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Sep 09 47 – 10 6.70 TRUE
2 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 10 54 – 7 12.80 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Sep 10 35 – 22 15.70 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Harlequins Sep 10 15 – 38 -1.00 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Sep 10 24 – 17 4.30 TRUE
6 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 10 40 – 15 14.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wasps vs. Bristol Sep 13 Wasps 7.10
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Sep 13 Leicester Tigers 0.80
3 London Irish vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 14 London Irish 4.20
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Sep 14 Sale Sharks 9.80
5 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 14 Saracens 0.30
6 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Sep 15 Gloucester 6.60

 

September 8, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for the Qualifying Final

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Team Ratings for the Qualifying Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 1.74 4.67 -2.90
Reds 1.56 -0.31 1.90
Rebels -3.84 -5.52 1.70
Waratahs -4.64 -7.12 2.50
Force -13.11 -10.00 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rebels vs. Force Sep 04 34 – 30 10.40 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Sep 05 26 – 7 2.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Qualifying Final

Here are the predictions for the Qualifying Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Reds vs. Rebels Sep 12 Reds 9.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.52 7.99 3.50
Saracens 7.27 9.34 -2.10
Sale Sharks 7.11 0.17 6.90
Wasps 3.29 0.31 3.00
Bath 1.47 1.10 0.40
Bristol 0.82 -2.77 3.60
Gloucester 0.28 0.58 -0.30
Northampton Saints -1.41 0.25 -1.70
Harlequins -2.67 -0.81 -1.90
Leicester Tigers -4.98 -1.76 -3.20
London Irish -8.14 -5.51 -2.60
Worcester Warriors -8.35 -2.69 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Sep 05 13 – 36 -2.60 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 05 19 – 22 -9.20 TRUE
3 Saracens vs. Wasps Sep 05 18 – 28 10.60 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Bath Sep 05 27 – 41 2.10 FALSE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Sep 06 31 – 40 -7.30 TRUE
6 Gloucester vs. London Irish Sep 06 36 – 23 12.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Sep 09 Bristol 6.70
2 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 10 Wasps 12.80
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Sep 10 Exeter Chiefs 15.70
4 London Irish vs. Harlequins Sep 10 Harlequins -1.00
5 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Sep 10 Sale Sharks 4.30
6 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Sep 10 Bath 14.30

 

Pro14 Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.53 12.20 4.30
Munster 11.18 10.73 0.50
Glasgow Warriors 6.87 9.66 -2.80
Ulster 4.12 1.89 2.20
Edinburgh 3.82 1.24 2.60
Scarlets 3.16 3.91 -0.70
Connacht 0.34 2.68 -2.30
Cardiff Blues -0.36 0.54 -0.90
Cheetahs -0.46 -3.38 2.90
Ospreys -3.38 2.80 -6.20
Treviso -4.11 -1.33 -2.80
Dragons -8.03 -9.31 1.30
Zebre -14.76 -16.93 2.20
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 103 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Munster Sep 05 13 – 3 10.40 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Sep 06 19 – 22 7.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Ulster Sep 13 Leinster 17.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.42 12.73 1.70
Roosters 12.14 12.25 -0.10
Panthers 6.47 -0.13 6.60
Raiders 5.81 7.06 -1.20
Rabbitohs 5.72 2.85 2.90
Eels 3.48 2.80 0.70
Sharks -0.23 1.81 -2.00
Knights -0.43 -5.92 5.50
Warriors -2.68 -5.17 2.50
Wests Tigers -2.95 -0.18 -2.80
Sea Eagles -3.40 1.05 -4.40
Dragons -4.28 -6.14 1.90
Bulldogs -6.86 -2.52 -4.30
Cowboys -7.01 -3.95 -3.10
Titans -10.39 -12.99 2.60
Broncos -11.80 -5.53 -6.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 92 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Sep 03 12 – 25 -16.80 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 04 38 – 10 -0.70 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Sep 04 16 – 22 -6.90 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Titans Sep 05 14 – 18 6.70 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Sep 05 32 – 34 2.10 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Roosters Sep 05 6 – 14 -3.70 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Warriors Sep 06 24 – 18 11.40 TRUE
8 Cowboys vs. Dragons Sep 06 23 – 22 -1.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Sep 10 Rabbitohs -6.70
2 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 11 Sea Eagles -1.50
3 Panthers vs. Eels Sep 11 Panthers 5.00
4 Dragons vs. Raiders Sep 12 Raiders -8.10
5 Titans vs. Broncos Sep 12 Titans 3.40
6 Roosters vs. Knights Sep 12 Roosters 14.60
7 Storm vs. Cowboys Sep 13 Storm 21.40
8 Sharks vs. Warriors Sep 13 Sharks 6.90

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 15.13 15.13 0.00
Canterbury 8.40 8.40 -0.00
Bay of Plenty 8.21 8.21 0.00
Auckland 6.75 6.75 -0.00
Wellington 6.47 6.47 0.00
North Harbour 2.87 2.87 -0.00
Waikato 1.31 1.31 -0.00
Hawke’s Bay 0.91 0.91 0.00
Otago -4.03 -4.03 -0.00
Taranaki -4.42 -4.42 -0.00
Counties Manukau -8.18 -8.18 -0.00
Northland -8.71 -8.71 0.00
Manawatu -10.57 -10.57 0.00
Southland -14.04 -14.04 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 11 Canterbury -2.50
2 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 12 Wellington -2.20
3 Otago vs. Auckland Sep 12 Auckland -7.80
4 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Sep 12 Tasman -20.30
5 Northland vs. Manawatu Sep 13 Northland 4.90
6 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 13 Bay of Plenty -9.60
7 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 13 Hawke’s Bay -11.90

 

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