Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

February 25, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 5

By

 

 

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.23 17.10 -0.90
Hurricanes 7.97 8.79 -0.80
Jaguares 6.76 7.23 -0.50
Chiefs 6.52 5.91 0.60
Stormers 3.02 -0.71 3.70
Highlanders 2.74 4.53 -1.80
Brumbies 2.34 2.01 0.30
Sharks 2.01 -0.87 2.90
Blues 1.05 -0.04 1.10
Bulls -0.64 1.28 -1.90
Lions -1.48 0.39 -1.90
Reds -2.19 -5.86 3.70
Waratahs -4.43 -2.48 -2.00
Rebels -8.28 -7.84 -0.40
Sunwolves -20.59 -18.45 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 27 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Feb 21 33 – 13 17.50 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Sharks Feb 22 24 – 36 -3.00 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Feb 22 14 – 26 13.50 FALSE
4 Reds vs. Sunwolves Feb 22 64 – 5 19.50 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Jaguares Feb 22 17 – 7 1.00 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Blues Feb 22 21 – 23 5.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Rebels Feb 28 Highlanders 17.00
2 Waratahs vs. Lions Feb 28 Waratahs 3.00
3 Hurricanes vs. Sunwolves Feb 29 Hurricanes 34.60
4 Reds vs. Sharks Feb 29 Reds 1.80
5 Stormers vs. Blues Feb 29 Stormers 8.00
6 Bulls vs. Jaguares Feb 29 Jaguares -1.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.84 7.99 1.80
Saracens 7.60 9.34 -1.70
Sale Sharks 4.71 0.17 4.50
Gloucester 0.55 0.58 -0.00
Bath 0.20 1.10 -0.90
Wasps 0.18 0.31 -0.10
Northampton Saints -0.87 0.25 -1.10
Bristol -1.57 -2.77 1.20
Harlequins -2.21 -0.81 -1.40
Leicester Tigers -3.77 -1.76 -2.00
London Irish -3.82 -5.51 1.70
Worcester Warriors -4.64 -2.69 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 66 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Feb 22 19 – 12 6.90 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 22 13 – 10 8.20 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Feb 22 57 – 7 11.70 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Gloucester Feb 22 24 – 20 -0.40 FALSE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 22 36 – 3 10.70 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Saracens Feb 22 60 – 10 -8.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Bristol Feb 29 Bath 6.30
2 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Feb 29 Gloucester 0.30
3 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 29 Exeter Chiefs -7.50
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 29 Leicester Tigers 5.40
5 London Irish vs. Wasps Feb 29 London Irish 0.50
6 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Feb 29 Saracens -4.00

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.78 12.20 3.60
Munster 9.40 10.73 -1.30
Glasgow Warriors 6.45 9.66 -3.20
Edinburgh 5.92 1.24 4.70
Ulster 4.58 1.89 2.70
Scarlets 2.49 3.91 -1.40
Connacht 0.61 2.68 -2.10
Cheetahs -0.03 -3.38 3.30
Cardiff Blues -0.40 0.54 -0.90
Ospreys -2.82 2.80 -5.60
Treviso -4.03 -1.33 -2.70
Dragons -7.76 -9.31 1.60
Southern Kings -14.82 -14.70 -0.10
Zebre -15.37 -16.93 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 83 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ospreys vs. Leinster Feb 22 13 – 21 -13.00 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Feb 22 41 – 14 10.50 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Munster Feb 22 0 – 28 -17.30 TRUE
4 Glasgow Warriors vs. Dragons Feb 23 34 – 19 22.00 TRUE
5 Ulster vs. Cheetahs Feb 23 20 – 10 11.40 TRUE
6 Cardiff Blues vs. Treviso Feb 24 34 – 24 10.20 TRUE
7 Scarlets vs. Southern Kings Feb 24 36 – 17 24.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 29 Edinburgh 12.80
2 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Feb 29 Leinster 15.80
3 Zebre vs. Ospreys Feb 29 Ospreys -6.00
4 Treviso vs. Ulster Mar 01 Ulster -2.10
5 Munster vs. Scarlets Mar 01 Munster 13.40
6 Dragons vs. Cheetahs Mar 01 Cheetahs -1.20
7 Southern Kings vs. Connacht Mar 01 Connacht -8.90

 

February 18, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.01 17.10 -1.10
Chiefs 8.18 5.91 2.30
Hurricanes 7.97 8.79 -0.80
Jaguares 7.41 7.23 0.20
Highlanders 2.96 4.53 -1.60
Stormers 2.37 -0.71 3.10
Sharks 1.36 -0.87 2.20
Brumbies 0.68 2.01 -1.30
Blues 0.35 -0.04 0.40
Bulls 0.05 1.28 -1.20
Lions -1.48 0.39 -1.90
Waratahs -4.43 -2.48 -2.00
Reds -4.65 -5.86 1.20
Rebels -7.63 -7.84 0.20
Sunwolves -18.13 -18.45 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 14 8 – 25 -9.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Feb 14 24 – 10 -0.70 FALSE
3 Sunwolves vs. Chiefs Feb 15 17 – 43 -19.10 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Feb 15 38 – 22 11.90 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Feb 15 22 – 23 4.80 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 15 30 – 33 1.50 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Reds Feb 15 43 – 27 18.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Feb 21 Crusaders 17.50
2 Rebels vs. Sharks Feb 22 Sharks -3.00
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Feb 22 Chiefs 13.50
4 Reds vs. Sunwolves Feb 22 Reds 19.50
5 Stormers vs. Jaguares Feb 22 Stormers 1.00
6 Bulls vs. Blues Feb 22 Bulls 5.70

 

View comments (2)

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.13 9.34 0.80
Exeter Chiefs 8.06 7.99 0.10
Sale Sharks 3.60 0.17 3.40
Northampton Saints 0.91 0.25 0.70
Gloucester 0.84 0.58 0.30
Bath 0.19 1.10 -0.90
Bristol -1.24 -2.77 1.50
Harlequins -2.20 -0.81 -1.40
Wasps -2.34 0.31 -2.70
Leicester Tigers -2.65 -1.76 -0.90
London Irish -4.11 -5.51 1.40
Worcester Warriors -4.97 -2.69 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 15 15 – 26 -1.70 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. London Irish Feb 15 15 – 29 8.70 FALSE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Feb 15 18 – 9 3.50 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Feb 15 14 – 20 8.20 FALSE
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Feb 15 36 – 22 10.50 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Feb 15 21 – 22 -0.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Feb 22 Bath 6.90
2 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 22 Bristol 8.20
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Feb 22 Exeter Chiefs 11.70
4 London Irish vs. Gloucester Feb 22 Gloucester -0.40
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 22 Sale Sharks 10.70
6 Wasps vs. Saracens Feb 22 Saracens -8.00

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.23 12.20 4.00
Munster 8.93 10.73 -1.80
Glasgow Warriors 7.08 9.66 -2.60
Edinburgh 5.28 1.24 4.00
Ulster 4.71 1.89 2.80
Scarlets 3.01 3.91 -0.90
Connacht 1.25 2.68 -1.40
Cheetahs -0.16 -3.38 3.20
Cardiff Blues -0.39 0.54 -0.90
Ospreys -3.27 2.80 -6.10
Treviso -4.04 -1.33 -2.70
Dragons -8.38 -9.31 0.90
Zebre -14.89 -16.93 2.00
Southern Kings -15.35 -14.70 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Zebre Feb 15 56 – 24 27.70 TRUE
2 Munster vs. Southern Kings Feb 15 68 – 3 28.50 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Cheetahs Feb 16 36 – 12 22.60 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Feb 16 9 – 14 5.10 FALSE
5 Ospreys vs. Ulster Feb 16 26 – 24 -2.20 FALSE
6 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 16 29 – 0 6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ospreys vs. Leinster Feb 22 Leinster -13.00
2 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Feb 22 Edinburgh 10.50
3 Zebre vs. Munster Feb 22 Munster -17.30
4 Glasgow Warriors vs. Dragons Feb 23 Glasgow Warriors 22.00
5 Ulster vs. Cheetahs Feb 23 Ulster 11.40
6 Cardiff Blues vs. Treviso Feb 24 Cardiff Blues 10.20
7 Scarlets vs. Southern Kings Feb 24 Scarlets 24.90

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

I missed posting predictions for this round thinking that there was a longer break between games. Because I use an algorithm and code and no subjective analysis, these predictions are exactly what I would have posted and I am posting them now for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.11 12.20 3.90
Munster 7.81 10.73 -2.90
Glasgow Warriors 6.69 9.66 -3.00
Ulster 5.09 1.89 3.20
Edinburgh 4.82 1.24 3.60
Scarlets 3.47 3.91 -0.40
Connacht 0.45 2.68 -2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.41 0.54 -0.10
Cheetahs -0.03 -3.38 3.30
Ospreys -3.65 2.80 -6.50
Treviso -4.04 -1.33 -2.70
Dragons -8.38 -9.31 0.90
Southern Kings -14.24 -14.70 0.50
Zebre -14.51 -16.93 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings 45 – 0 17.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Zebre Glasgow Warriors 27.70
2 Munster vs. Southern Kings Munster 28.50
3 Leinster vs. Cheetahs Leinster 22.60
4 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Scarlets 5.10
5 Ospreys vs. Ulster Ulster -2.20
6 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Connacht 6.50

 

February 11, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 3

By

 

 

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.36 17.10 -1.70
Jaguares 7.64 7.23 0.40
Hurricanes 7.59 8.79 -1.20
Chiefs 7.56 5.91 1.70
Highlanders 2.44 4.53 -2.10
Stormers 1.97 -0.71 2.70
Sharks 1.73 -0.87 2.60
Brumbies 1.19 2.01 -0.80
Blues 0.99 -0.04 1.00
Bulls 0.05 1.28 -1.20
Lions -1.08 0.39 -1.50
Waratahs -3.42 -2.48 -0.90
Reds -4.88 -5.86 1.00
Rebels -8.64 -7.84 -0.80
Sunwolves -17.51 -18.45 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Sharks Feb 07 20 – 42 10.90 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Feb 07 39 – 26 14.60 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 08 25 – 15 -5.40 FALSE
4 Waratahs vs. Blues Feb 08 12 – 32 4.80 FALSE
5 Lions vs. Reds Feb 08 27 – 20 10.40 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 08 13 – 0 5.00 TRUE
7 Jaguares vs. Hurricanes Feb 08 23 – 26 7.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 14 Crusaders -9.90
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Feb 14 Waratahs -0.70
3 Sunwolves vs. Chiefs Feb 15 Chiefs -19.10
4 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Feb 15 Hurricanes 11.90
5 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Feb 15 Brumbies 4.80
6 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 15 Lions 1.50
7 Jaguares vs. Reds Feb 15 Jaguares 18.50

 

February 4, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.42 17.10 -0.70
Jaguares 8.39 7.23 1.20
Hurricanes 6.84 8.79 -2.00
Chiefs 6.50 5.91 0.60
Highlanders 4.53 4.53 0.00
Brumbies 1.34 2.01 -0.70
Stormers 1.24 -0.71 1.90
Bulls 0.77 1.28 -0.50
Sharks -0.36 -0.87 0.50
Blues -0.63 -0.04 -0.60
Lions -0.77 0.39 -1.20
Waratahs -1.80 -2.48 0.70
Reds -5.19 -5.86 0.70
Rebels -8.79 -7.84 -0.90
Sunwolves -17.51 -18.45 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Chiefs Jan 31 29 – 37 -1.40 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Jan 31 27 – 24 12.40 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jan 31 23 – 15 2.40 TRUE
4 Sunwolves vs. Rebels Feb 01 36 – 27 -4.60 FALSE
5 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Feb 01 43 – 25 25.60 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 01 27 – 0 -3.50 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Lions Feb 01 38 – 8 12.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Sharks Feb 07 Highlanders 10.90
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels Feb 07 Brumbies 14.60
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 08 Crusaders -5.40
4 Waratahs vs. Blues Feb 08 Waratahs 4.80
5 Lions vs. Reds Feb 08 Lions 10.40
6 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 08 Stormers 5.00
7 Jaguares vs. Hurricanes Feb 08 Jaguares 7.50

 

View comments (6)
January 29, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Round 9 Delayed Match

By

Team Ratings for Round 9 Delayed Match

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.11 12.20 3.90
Munster 7.81 10.73 -2.90
Glasgow Warriors 6.69 9.66 -3.00
Ulster 5.09 1.89 3.20
Edinburgh 4.82 1.24 3.60
Scarlets 3.47 3.91 -0.40
Connacht 0.45 2.68 -2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.41 0.54 -0.10
Cheetahs -0.95 -3.38 2.40
Ospreys -3.65 2.80 -6.50
Treviso -4.04 -1.33 -2.70
Dragons -8.38 -9.31 0.90
Southern Kings -13.32 -14.70 1.40
Zebre -14.51 -16.93 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 69 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southern Kings vs. Cheetahs Jan 26 30 – 31 -8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9 Delayed Match

Here are the predictions for Round 9 Delayed Match. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings Feb 02 Cheetahs 17.40

 

« Later posts
Earlier posts »