Posts filed under Sports statistics (1809)

August 14, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.34 7.99 2.30
Saracens 7.45 9.34 -1.90
Sale Sharks 6.33 0.17 6.20
Wasps 1.43 0.31 1.10
Bristol -0.43 -2.77 2.30
Gloucester -0.49 0.58 -1.10
Northampton Saints -0.62 0.25 -0.90
Bath -1.61 1.10 -2.70
Harlequins -2.03 -0.81 -1.20
Leicester Tigers -3.41 -1.76 -1.70
Worcester Warriors -5.10 -2.69 -2.40
London Irish -5.65 -5.51 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 07 28 – 15 5.20 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Mar 07 57 – 20 14.20 TRUE
3 Sale Sharks vs. London Irish Mar 07 39 – 0 14.00 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 07 24 – 13 16.00 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Gloucester Mar 07 39 – 22 5.10 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Mar 07 10 – 16 0.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Aug 15 Sale Sharks -3.90
2 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Aug 15 Gloucester -0.10
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Aug 15 Exeter Chiefs 18.20
4 Bath vs. London Irish Aug 16 Bath 8.50
5 Bristol vs. Saracens Aug 16 Saracens -3.40
6 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps Aug 17 Northampton Saints 2.50

 

August 11, 2020

Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.77 15.15 -0.40
Hurricanes 8.45 8.31 0.10
Blues 7.61 5.39 2.20
Chiefs 4.21 7.94 -3.70
Highlanders 1.54 -0.22 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Aug 08 31 – 18 7.80 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Aug 09 32 – 22 19.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Aug 15 Hurricanes -2.40
2 Blues vs. Crusaders Aug 16 Crusaders -2.70

 

NRL Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.27 12.73 1.50
Roosters 11.01 12.25 -1.20
Panthers 5.63 -0.13 5.80
Raiders 5.27 7.06 -1.80
Eels 5.11 2.80 2.30
Rabbitohs 3.02 2.85 0.20
Sharks 1.81 1.81 0.00
Knights -0.28 -5.92 5.60
Sea Eagles -1.36 1.05 -2.40
Wests Tigers -1.53 -0.18 -1.30
Dragons -3.89 -6.14 2.20
Warriors -5.70 -5.17 -0.50
Bulldogs -6.12 -2.52 -3.60
Cowboys -6.92 -3.95 -3.00
Broncos -10.65 -5.53 -5.10
Titans -11.65 -12.99 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 104 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Roosters Aug 06 16 – 24 -13.60 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Aug 07 22 – 26 10.30 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Aug 07 28 – 10 15.20 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Bulldogs Aug 08 41 – 10 19.10 TRUE
5 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Aug 08 44 – 4 0.10 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 08 28 – 12 0.80 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Cowboys Aug 09 30 – 10 -5.00 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Eels Aug 09 12 – 14 -1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Storm Aug 13 Storm -1.30
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Aug 14 Panthers 15.80
3 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 14 Eels 11.00
4 Sharks vs. Titans Aug 15 Sharks 15.50
5 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Aug 15 Rabbitohs -7.90
6 Raiders vs. Broncos Aug 15 Raiders 17.90
7 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Aug 16 Wests Tigers 6.60
8 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Aug 16 Knights 3.10

 

August 4, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 3.89 4.67 -0.80
Reds -0.60 -0.31 -0.30
Rebels -3.75 -5.52 1.80
Waratahs -7.01 -7.12 0.10
Force -10.81 -10.00 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 90%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Force vs. Rebels Jul 31 20 – 25 -2.00 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Aug 01 22 – 20 10.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Brumbies Aug 07 Brumbies -3.10
2 Waratahs vs. Reds Aug 08 Reds -1.90

 

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Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.42 15.15 0.30
Hurricanes 7.98 8.31 -0.30
Blues 7.61 5.39 2.20
Chiefs 4.67 7.94 -3.30
Highlanders 0.88 -0.22 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Aug 01 19 – 32 -4.80 TRUE
2 Highlanders vs. Blues Aug 02 21 – 32 -0.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Aug 08 Hurricanes 7.80
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Aug 09 Crusaders 19.00

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.63 12.73 0.90
Roosters 11.37 12.25 -0.90
Raiders 6.04 7.06 -1.00
Eels 5.02 2.80 2.20
Panthers 4.86 -0.13 5.00
Rabbitohs 2.80 2.85 -0.00
Sharks 1.90 1.81 0.10
Wests Tigers 0.05 -0.18 0.20
Sea Eagles -0.63 1.05 -1.70
Knights -1.86 -5.92 4.10
Dragons -4.25 -6.14 1.90
Bulldogs -5.48 -2.52 -3.00
Cowboys -5.81 -3.95 -1.90
Warriors -6.44 -5.17 -1.30
Broncos -10.44 -5.53 -4.90
Titans -12.77 -12.99 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jul 30 24 – 32 -4.50 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 31 20 – 26 12.80 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 31 26 – 36 -10.40 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Titans Aug 01 18 – 12 28.20 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Aug 01 12 – 14 -10.90 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Aug 01 12 – 42 -1.00 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Eels Aug 02 16 – 18 -9.40 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Knights Aug 02 26 – 16 16.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Roosters Aug 06 Roosters -13.60
2 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Aug 07 Sea Eagles 10.30
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Aug 07 Rabbitohs 15.20
4 Storm vs. Bulldogs Aug 08 Storm 19.10
5 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Aug 08 Knights 0.10
6 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 08 Panthers 0.80
7 Titans vs. Cowboys Aug 09 Cowboys -5.00
8 Sharks vs. Eels Aug 09 Eels -1.10

 

July 28, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 4.66 4.67 -0.00
Reds -1.37 -0.31 -1.10
Rebels -4.02 -5.52 1.50
Waratahs -7.01 -7.12 0.10
Force -10.54 -10.00 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 87.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rebels vs. Waratahs Jul 24 29 – 10 5.60 TRUE
2 Force vs. Brumbies Jul 25 0 – 24 -8.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Force vs. Rebels Jul 31 Rebels -2.00
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Aug 01 Brumbies 10.50

 

Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.68 15.15 -0.50
Hurricanes 7.98 8.31 -0.30
Blues 6.88 5.39 1.50
Chiefs 5.41 7.94 -2.50
Highlanders 1.61 -0.22 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jul 25 32 – 34 13.30 FALSE
2 Blues vs. Chiefs Jul 26 21 – 17 6.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Aug 01 Crusaders -4.80
2 Highlanders vs. Blues Aug 02 Blues -0.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.03 12.73 1.30
Roosters 12.40 12.25 0.20
Raiders 6.55 7.06 -0.50
Eels 5.47 2.80 2.70
Panthers 3.61 -0.13 3.70
Rabbitohs 2.55 2.85 -0.30
Sharks 1.94 1.81 0.10
Wests Tigers 0.96 -0.18 1.10
Sea Eagles 0.62 1.05 -0.40
Knights -2.26 -5.92 3.70
Dragons -4.00 -6.14 2.10
Bulldogs -5.93 -2.52 -3.40
Cowboys -6.32 -3.95 -2.40
Warriors -7.34 -5.17 -2.20
Broncos -10.48 -5.53 -4.90
Titans -13.79 -12.99 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Jul 23 26 – 16 5.90 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jul 24 12 – 24 -4.00 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Storm Jul 24 8 – 46 -20.80 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Warriors Jul 25 18 – 10 26.00 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Dragons Jul 25 28 – 24 6.30 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jul 25 18 – 12 6.00 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jul 26 12 – 18 7.00 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Panthers Jul 26 14 – 22 -16.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jul 30 Rabbitohs -4.50
2 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 31 Wests Tigers 12.80
3 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 31 Sharks -10.40
4 Roosters vs. Titans Aug 01 Roosters 28.20
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Aug 01 Raiders -10.90
6 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Aug 01 Panthers -1.00
7 Bulldogs vs. Eels Aug 02 Eels -9.40
8 Storm vs. Knights Aug 02 Storm 16.30

 

July 21, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 3.61 4.67 -1.10
Reds -1.37 -0.31 -1.10
Rebels -4.95 -5.52 0.60
Waratahs -6.08 -7.12 1.00
Force -9.49 -10.00 0.50

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Reds vs. Force Jul 17 31 – 24 13.80 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 18 23 – 24 -6.10 TRUE

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Waratahs Jul 24 Rebels 5.60
2 Force vs. Brumbies Jul 25 Brumbies -8.60
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