Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

January 29, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.84 9.34 0.50
Exeter Chiefs 7.53 7.99 -0.50
Sale Sharks 3.88 0.17 3.70
Northampton Saints 1.67 0.25 1.40
Gloucester 1.37 0.58 0.80
Bath 0.16 1.10 -0.90
Harlequins -1.06 -0.81 -0.30
Bristol -2.00 -2.77 0.80
Wasps -2.00 0.31 -2.30
Leicester Tigers -2.99 -1.76 -1.20
Worcester Warriors -4.94 -2.69 -2.30
London Irish -5.24 -5.51 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 25 13 – 10 8.30 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Gloucester Jan 25 34 – 16 -0.80 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jan 25 19 – 22 9.50 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Saracens Jan 25 41 – 14 -9.80 FALSE
5 Northampton Saints vs. London Irish Jan 25 16 – 20 13.20 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps Jan 25 26 – 30 2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 15 Exeter Chiefs -1.70
2 Harlequins vs. London Irish Feb 15 Harlequins 8.70
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Feb 15 Leicester Tigers 3.50
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Feb 15 Northampton Saints 8.20
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Feb 15 Saracens 10.50
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Feb 15 Bath -0.60

 

January 21, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.10 17.10 -0.00
Hurricanes 8.79 8.79 -0.00
Jaguares 7.23 7.23 0.00
Chiefs 5.91 5.91 0.00
Highlanders 4.53 4.53 0.00
Brumbies 2.01 2.01 -0.00
Bulls 1.28 1.28 0.00
Lions 0.39 0.39 -0.00
Blues -0.04 -0.04 -0.00
Stormers -0.71 -0.71 -0.00
Sharks -0.87 -0.87 -0.00
Waratahs -2.48 -2.48 -0.00
Reds -5.86 -5.86 0.00
Rebels -7.84 -7.84 0.00
Sunwolves -18.45 -18.45 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Chiefs Jan 31 Chiefs -1.40
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Jan 31 Brumbies 12.40
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jan 31 Sharks 2.40
4 Sunwolves vs. Rebels Feb 01 Rebels -4.60
5 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Feb 01 Crusaders 25.60
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 01 Hurricanes -3.50
7 Jaguares vs. Lions Feb 01 Jaguares 12.80

 

January 7, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.56 9.34 2.20
Exeter Chiefs 8.22 7.99 0.20
Sale Sharks 3.19 0.17 3.00
Northampton Saints 2.57 0.25 2.30
Gloucester 2.34 0.58 1.80
Bath 0.49 1.10 -0.60
Wasps -2.38 0.31 -2.70
Harlequins -2.78 -0.81 -2.00
Bristol -2.97 -2.77 -0.20
Leicester Tigers -3.32 -1.76 -1.60
Worcester Warriors -4.55 -2.69 -1.90
London Irish -6.14 -5.51 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Jan 04 48 – 10 7.60 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Bath Jan 05 29 – 15 5.30 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Jan 05 31 – 18 3.00 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors Jan 05 62 – 5 16.90 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 06 28 – 45 -8.90 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Jan 06 31 – 35 0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 25 Bath 8.30
2 Bristol vs. Gloucester Jan 25 Gloucester -0.80
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jan 25 Exeter Chiefs 9.50
4 Harlequins vs. Saracens Jan 25 Saracens -9.80
5 Northampton Saints vs. London Irish Jan 25 Northampton Saints 13.20
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps Jan 25 Worcester Warriors 2.30

 

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Pro14 Predictions for Round 8 Delayed Match

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Team Ratings for Round 8 Delayed Match

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.11 12.20 3.90
Munster 7.81 10.73 -2.90
Glasgow Warriors 6.69 9.66 -3.00
Ulster 5.09 1.89 3.20
Edinburgh 4.82 1.24 3.60
Scarlets 3.47 3.91 -0.40
Connacht 0.45 2.68 -2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.41 0.54 -0.10
Cheetahs -0.25 -3.38 3.10
Ospreys -3.65 2.80 -6.50
Treviso -4.04 -1.33 -2.70
Dragons -8.38 -9.31 0.90
Southern Kings -14.02 -14.70 0.70
Zebre -14.51 -16.93 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 68 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Jan 04 14 – 16 2.80 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 04 38 – 17 0.80 TRUE
3 Treviso vs. Glasgow Warriors Jan 04 19 – 38 -3.00 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Ospreys Jan 05 25 – 18 -1.20 FALSE
5 Zebre vs. Cheetahs Jan 05 41 – 13 -10.10 FALSE
6 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 05 54 – 7 18.80 TRUE
7 Edinburgh vs. Southern Kings Jan 05 61 – 13 23.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8 Delayed Match

Here are the predictions for Round 8 Delayed Match. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southern Kings vs. Cheetahs Jan 26 Cheetahs -8.80

 

December 31, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.18 12.20 3.00
Munster 8.55 10.73 -2.20
Glasgow Warriors 6.06 9.66 -3.60
Ulster 4.35 1.89 2.50
Edinburgh 3.98 1.24 2.70
Scarlets 3.04 3.91 -0.90
Connacht 1.38 2.68 -1.30
Cheetahs 0.90 -3.38 4.30
Cardiff Blues 0.84 0.54 0.30
Ospreys -2.91 2.80 -5.70
Treviso -3.41 -1.33 -2.10
Dragons -9.12 -9.31 0.20
Southern Kings -13.18 -14.70 1.50
Zebre -15.66 -16.93 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 61 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Dragons Dec 27 16 – 12 16.00 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Dec 27 44 – 0 8.80 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Connacht Dec 28 35 – 3 6.20 TRUE
4 Treviso vs. Zebre Dec 28 36 – 25 18.60 TRUE
5 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Dec 29 29 – 19 1.40 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 29 6 – 13 -0.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Jan 04 Cardiff Blues 2.80
2 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 04 Ulster 0.80
3 Treviso vs. Glasgow Warriors Jan 04 Glasgow Warriors -3.00
4 Dragons vs. Ospreys Jan 05 Ospreys -1.20
5 Zebre vs. Cheetahs Jan 05 Cheetahs -10.10
6 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 05 Leinster 18.80
7 Edinburgh vs. Southern Kings Jan 05 Edinburgh 23.70

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.72 9.34 0.40
Exeter Chiefs 7.74 7.99 -0.30
Northampton Saints 2.30 0.25 2.00
Gloucester 1.84 0.58 1.30
Sale Sharks 1.73 0.17 1.60
Bath 0.99 1.10 -0.10
Harlequins -1.32 -0.81 -0.50
Wasps -2.12 0.31 -2.40
Bristol -2.40 -2.77 0.40
Worcester Warriors -2.71 -2.69 -0.00
Leicester Tigers -3.89 -1.76 -2.10
London Irish -5.67 -5.51 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Wasps Dec 28 21 – 26 5.40 FALSE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Dec 29 33 – 26 4.60 TRUE
3 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Dec 29 16 – 14 4.10 TRUE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish Dec 29 20 – 6 6.60 TRUE
5 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 29 30 – 30 8.00 FALSE
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Dec 30 14 – 7 1.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Jan 04 Sale Sharks 7.60
2 Gloucester vs. Bath Jan 05 Gloucester 5.30
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Jan 05 Leicester Tigers 3.00
4 Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors Jan 05 Saracens 16.90
5 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 06 Exeter Chiefs -8.90
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Jan 06 Wasps 0.10

 

December 27, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 9

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My apologies for the late publication of these predictions. I was too distracted by Christmas.

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.59 12.20 2.40
Munster 9.14 10.73 -1.60
Glasgow Warriors 6.84 9.66 -2.80
Ulster 3.47 1.89 1.60
Edinburgh 3.20 1.24 2.00
Connacht 2.26 2.68 -0.40
Scarlets 1.95 3.91 -2.00
Cardiff Blues 1.35 0.54 0.80
Cheetahs 0.90 -3.38 4.30
Ospreys -1.82 2.80 -4.60
Treviso -2.73 -1.33 -1.40
Dragons -9.63 -9.31 -0.30
Southern Kings -13.18 -14.70 1.50
Zebre -16.34 -16.93 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Ulster Dec 21 54 – 42 17.00 TRUE
2 Zebre vs. Treviso Dec 22 8 – 13 -9.40 TRUE
3 Connacht vs. Munster Dec 22 14 – 19 -1.20 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Scarlets Dec 22 22 – 20 -7.40 FALSE
5 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Dec 22 20 – 16 9.70 TRUE
6 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 22 16 – 19 2.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Dragons Dec 27 Cardiff Blues 16.00
2 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Dec 27 Scarlets 8.80
3 Ulster vs. Connacht Dec 28 Ulster 6.20
4 Treviso vs. Zebre Dec 28 Treviso 18.60
5 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Dec 29 Edinburgh 1.40
6 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 29 Leinster -0.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.04 9.34 0.70
Exeter Chiefs 7.42 7.99 -0.60
Northampton Saints 2.11 0.25 1.90
Gloucester 2.03 0.58 1.40
Sale Sharks 1.57 0.17 1.40
Bath 1.16 1.10 0.10
Harlequins -0.85 -0.81 -0.00
Bristol -1.82 -2.77 1.00
Wasps -2.71 0.31 -3.00
Worcester Warriors -3.15 -2.69 -0.50
Leicester Tigers -4.36 -1.76 -2.60
London Irish -5.23 -5.51 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 21 36 – 3 7.10 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 22 22 – 31 -7.00 TRUE
3 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Dec 22 22 – 10 2.90 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Bristol Dec 22 47 – 13 14.30 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Harlequins Dec 22 22 – 28 3.80 FALSE
6 London Irish vs. Bath Dec 23 10 – 38 0.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Wasps Dec 28 Bristol 5.40
2 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Dec 29 Northampton Saints 4.60
3 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Dec 29 Bath 4.10
4 Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish Dec 29 Worcester Warriors 6.60
5 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 29 Harlequins 8.00
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Dec 30 Exeter Chiefs 1.90

 

December 3, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.04 12.20 2.80
Munster 8.80 10.73 -1.90
Glasgow Warriors 7.35 9.66 -2.30
Ulster 3.02 1.89 1.10
Edinburgh 2.70 1.24 1.50
Connacht 2.60 2.68 -0.10
Scarlets 2.38 3.91 -1.50
Cheetahs 0.90 -3.38 4.30
Cardiff Blues 0.82 0.54 0.30
Ospreys -1.29 2.80 -4.10
Treviso -2.33 -1.33 -1.00
Dragons -10.07 -9.31 -0.80
Southern Kings -13.18 -14.70 1.50
Zebre -16.74 -16.93 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Nov 30 16 – 18 13.80 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Scarlets Nov 30 29 – 5 5.80 TRUE
3 Treviso vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 01 28 – 31 4.70 FALSE
4 Connacht vs. Southern Kings Dec 01 24 – 12 23.30 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Zebre Dec 01 12 – 39 15.70 FALSE
6 Ospreys vs. Cheetahs Dec 01 13 – 18 5.20 FALSE
7 Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster Dec 01 10 – 23 -0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Ulster Dec 21 Leinster 17.00
2 Zebre vs. Treviso Dec 22 Treviso -9.40
3 Connacht vs. Munster Dec 22 Munster -1.20
4 Dragons vs. Scarlets Dec 22 Scarlets -7.40
5 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Dec 22 Glasgow Warriors 9.70
6 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 22 Ospreys 2.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.03 9.34 -0.30
Exeter Chiefs 7.26 7.99 -0.70
Northampton Saints 2.63 0.25 2.40
Sale Sharks 1.04 0.17 0.90
Gloucester 0.76 0.58 0.20
Bath -0.23 1.10 -1.30
Bristol -0.81 -2.77 2.00
Harlequins -1.40 -0.81 -0.60
Worcester Warriors -1.88 -2.69 0.80
Wasps -2.15 0.31 -2.50
London Irish -3.83 -5.51 1.70
Leicester Tigers -4.19 -1.76 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Saracens Nov 30 12 – 25 -3.70 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Dec 01 38 – 3 11.60 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 01 36 – 13 9.90 TRUE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Dec 01 20 – 13 0.80 TRUE
5 Bristol vs. London Irish Dec 02 27 – 27 8.50 FALSE
6 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Dec 02 23 – 19 2.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 21 Gloucester 7.10
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 22 Exeter Chiefs -7.00
3 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Dec 22 Sale Sharks 2.90
4 Saracens vs. Bristol Dec 22 Saracens 14.30
5 Wasps vs. Harlequins Dec 22 Wasps 3.80
6 London Irish vs. Bath Dec 23 London Irish 0.90

 

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