Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

June 2, 2020

NRL Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.52 12.73 -1.20
Roosters 11.18 12.25 -1.10
Raiders 8.21 7.06 1.20
Eels 4.85 2.80 2.00
Sea Eagles 2.39 1.05 1.30
Rabbitohs 1.92 2.85 -0.90
Sharks 1.39 1.81 -0.40
Panthers 0.25 -0.13 0.40
Wests Tigers -0.16 -0.18 0.00
Cowboys -3.02 -3.95 0.90
Knights -3.67 -5.92 2.30
Bulldogs -3.97 -2.52 -1.50
Warriors -5.32 -5.17 -0.20
Broncos -5.40 -5.53 0.10
Dragons -7.43 -6.14 -1.30
Titans -14.75 -12.99 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Eels May 28 6 – 34 -6.20 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Titans May 29 36 – 6 12.00 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs May 29 28 – 12 8.30 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Warriors May 30 0 – 18 4.40 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers May 30 16 – 28 3.10 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Raiders May 30 6 – 22 7.40 FALSE
7 Panthers vs. Knights May 31 14 – 14 4.50 FALSE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs May 31 32 – 6 6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Jun 04 Roosters -14.60
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Jun 05 Panthers 10.10
3 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Jun 05 Storm 11.60
4 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Jun 06 Eels 4.50
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 06 Sharks -2.40
6 Raiders vs. Knights Jun 07 Raiders 11.90
7 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Jun 07 Wests Tigers -12.60
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 08 Bulldogs 3.50

 

May 26, 2020

NRL Predictions for Round 3

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Home Ground Advantage

Determining home ground advantage for this new draw has been very difficult. In some cases it has been straightforward: Storm at home, Cowboys at home, Broncos at home, Warriors always away despite their being the nominal home team. But Knights versus Dragons at Bankwest Stadium? Raiders versus Sea Eagles at Campbelltown? I made the ground neutral for those. I gave home ground advantage to a team if the opponent was from interstate (not counting Raiders playing in Sydney). Also the Eels at Bankwest Stadium have home ground advantage.

To deal with the Warriors always being the away team, I have swapped the order of the teams for some matches because the first team is always the team with home ground advantage in my code.

And yes, I know that a component of home ground advantage is thought to be the home crowd, but there are no crowds, …

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.59 12.73 -0.10
Roosters 10.72 12.25 -1.50
Raiders 7.15 7.06 0.10
Eels 3.84 2.80 1.00
Rabbitohs 2.38 2.85 -0.50
Sharks 2.16 1.81 0.40
Sea Eagles 1.46 1.05 0.40
Panthers 0.56 -0.13 0.70
Wests Tigers -0.93 -0.18 -0.70
Bulldogs -3.04 -2.52 -0.50
Cowboys -3.89 -3.95 0.10
Knights -3.98 -5.92 1.90
Broncos -4.39 -5.53 1.10
Warriors -6.35 -5.17 -1.20
Dragons -6.40 -6.14 -0.30
Titans -13.88 -12.99 -0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Mar 19 16 – 24 4.20 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 20 28 – 32 -5.20 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Mar 20 22 – 18 -5.90 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Raiders Mar 21 6 – 20 -8.20 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 21 8 – 9 12.70 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Storm Mar 21 10 – 12 -9.30 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Mar 22 24 – 42 7.30 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Eels Mar 22 6 – 46 -13.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Eels May 28 Eels -6.20
2 Cowboys vs. Titans May 29 Cowboys 12.00
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs May 29 Roosters 8.30
4 Dragons vs. Warriors May 30 Dragons 4.40
5 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers May 30 Sharks 3.10
6 Storm vs. Raiders May 30 Storm 7.40
7 Panthers vs. Knights May 31 Panthers 4.50
8 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs May 31 Sea Eagles 6.50

 

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March 19, 2020

NRL Predictions for Round 2

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Obviously this week is different in a number of ways. Empty stadiums, Warriors with a depleted squad. My predictions take no account of these changed circumstances.

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.03 12.73 0.30
Roosters 11.43 12.25 -0.80
Raiders 6.77 7.06 -0.30
Rabbitohs 2.94 2.85 0.10
Eels 2.67 2.80 -0.10
Sharks 1.71 1.81 -0.10
Sea Eagles 0.75 1.05 -0.30
Panthers 0.68 -0.13 0.80
Wests Tigers 0.20 -0.18 0.40
Bulldogs -2.39 -2.52 0.10
Cowboys -4.54 -3.95 -0.60
Broncos -4.94 -5.53 0.60
Knights -5.11 -5.92 0.80
Warriors -5.98 -5.17 -0.80
Dragons -6.52 -6.14 -0.40
Titans -12.70 -12.99 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 12 8 – 2 7.30 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Titans Mar 13 24 – 6 22.00 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Broncos Mar 13 21 – 28 3.60 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Warriors Mar 14 20 – 0 3.70 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Mar 14 22 – 18 3.00 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 14 20 – 14 -10.40 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Mar 15 4 – 18 -9.70 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Mar 15 14 – 24 -4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Mar 19 Bulldogs 4.20
2 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 20 Panthers -5.20
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Mar 20 Rabbitohs -5.90
4 Warriors vs. Raiders Mar 21 Raiders -8.20
5 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 21 Roosters 12.70
6 Sharks vs. Storm Mar 21 Storm -9.30
7 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Mar 22 Wests Tigers 7.30
8 Titans vs. Eels Mar 22 Eels -13.40

 

March 10, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.82 17.10 -2.30
Chiefs 8.72 5.91 2.80
Hurricanes 7.53 8.79 -1.30
Jaguares 6.81 7.23 -0.40
Blues 4.10 -0.04 4.10
Sharks 3.73 -0.87 4.60
Brumbies 3.38 2.01 1.40
Stormers 1.27 -0.71 2.00
Bulls -0.14 1.28 -1.40
Highlanders -0.22 4.53 -4.70
Reds -1.61 -5.86 4.30
Lions -3.53 0.39 -3.90
Rebels -5.52 -7.84 2.30
Waratahs -5.82 -2.48 -3.30
Sunwolves -22.51 -18.45 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Reds Mar 06 24 – 20 25.20 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Mar 06 14 – 53 -4.10 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 07 15 – 24 10.50 FALSE
4 Rebels vs. Lions Mar 07 37 – 17 1.50 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Jaguares Mar 07 33 – 19 1.10 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Highlanders Mar 07 38 – 13 3.20 TRUE
7 Sunwolves vs. Brumbies Mar 06 14 – 47 -17.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Mar 13 Chiefs 5.70
2 Sunwolves vs. Crusaders Mar 14 Crusaders -31.30
3 Blues vs. Lions Mar 14 Blues 13.60
4 Reds vs. Bulls Mar 14 Reds 4.50
5 Sharks vs. Stormers Mar 14 Sharks 7.00
6 Jaguares vs. Highlanders Mar 14 Jaguares 13.00
7 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 15 Brumbies 13.70

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.34 7.99 2.30
Saracens 7.45 9.34 -1.90
Sale Sharks 6.33 0.17 6.20
Wasps 1.43 0.31 1.10
Bristol -0.43 -2.77 2.30
Gloucester -0.49 0.58 -1.10
Northampton Saints -0.62 0.25 -0.90
Bath -1.61 1.10 -2.70
Harlequins -2.03 -0.81 -1.20
Leicester Tigers -3.41 -1.76 -1.70
Worcester Warriors -5.10 -2.69 -2.40
London Irish -5.65 -5.51 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 07 28 – 15 5.20 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Mar 07 57 – 20 14.20 TRUE
3 Sale Sharks vs. London Irish Mar 07 39 – 0 14.00 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 07 24 – 13 16.00 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Gloucester Mar 07 39 – 22 5.10 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Mar 07 10 – 16 0.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. London Irish Mar 21 Bath 8.50
2 Bristol vs. Saracens Mar 21 Saracens -3.40
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 21 Exeter Chiefs 18.20
4 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Mar 21 Sale Sharks -3.90
5 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps Mar 21 Northampton Saints 2.50
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Mar 21 Gloucester -0.10

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.52 12.20 4.30
Munster 9.90 10.73 -0.80
Glasgow Warriors 5.66 9.66 -4.00
Edinburgh 5.49 1.24 4.20
Ulster 4.58 1.89 2.70
Scarlets 1.98 3.91 -1.90
Connacht 0.70 2.68 -2.00
Cardiff Blues 0.08 0.54 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.46 -3.38 2.90
Ospreys -2.82 2.80 -5.60
Treviso -3.50 -1.33 -2.20
Dragons -7.85 -9.31 1.50
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20
Zebre -15.37 -16.93 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 89 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Treviso Feb 16 25 – 37 2.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Scarlets Mar 21 Connacht 5.20
2 Ulster vs. Dragons Mar 21 Ulster 18.90
3 Southern Kings vs. Edinburgh Mar 21 Edinburgh -13.90
4 Cardiff Blues vs. Zebre Mar 22 Cardiff Blues 21.90
5 Cheetahs vs. Leinster Mar 22 Leinster -10.50
6 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Warriors Mar 22 Glasgow Warriors -2.00
7 Treviso vs. Munster Mar 22 Munster -6.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.73 12.73 -0.00
Roosters 12.25 12.25 0.00
Raiders 7.06 7.06 0.00
Rabbitohs 2.85 2.85 0.00
Eels 2.80 2.80 -0.00
Sharks 1.81 1.81 0.00
Sea Eagles 1.05 1.05 0.00
Panthers -0.13 -0.13 0.00
Wests Tigers -0.18 -0.18 0.00
Bulldogs -2.52 -2.52 -0.00
Cowboys -3.95 -3.95 0.00
Warriors -5.17 -5.17 -0.00
Broncos -5.53 -5.53 0.00
Knights -5.92 -5.92 0.00
Dragons -6.14 -6.14 -0.00
Titans -12.99 -12.99 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 12 Eels 7.30
2 Raiders vs. Titans Mar 13 Raiders 22.00
3 Cowboys vs. Broncos Mar 13 Cowboys 3.60
4 Knights vs. Warriors Mar 14 Knights 3.70
5 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Mar 14 Rabbitohs 3.00
6 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 14 Roosters -10.40
7 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Mar 15 Storm -9.70
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Mar 15 Wests Tigers -4.00

 

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March 3, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.23 17.10 -0.90
Hurricanes 8.84 8.79 0.00
Jaguares 7.70 7.23 0.50
Chiefs 6.52 5.91 0.60
Sharks 2.84 -0.87 3.70
Blues 2.79 -0.04 2.80
Brumbies 2.34 2.01 0.30
Stormers 1.27 -0.71 2.00
Highlanders 1.22 4.53 -3.30
Bulls -1.59 1.28 -2.90
Lions -2.28 0.39 -2.70
Reds -3.02 -5.86 2.80
Waratahs -3.62 -2.48 -1.10
Rebels -6.77 -7.84 1.10
Sunwolves -21.46 -18.45 -3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 33 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Rebels Feb 28 22 – 28 17.00 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Lions Feb 28 29 – 17 3.00 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Sunwolves Feb 29 62 – 15 34.60 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Sharks Feb 29 23 – 33 1.80 FALSE
5 Stormers vs. Blues Feb 29 14 – 33 8.00 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Jaguares Feb 29 24 – 39 -1.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Reds Mar 06 Crusaders 25.20
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Mar 06 Chiefs -4.10
3 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 07 Hurricanes 10.50
4 Rebels vs. Lions Mar 07 Rebels 1.50
5 Sharks vs. Jaguares Mar 07 Sharks 1.10
6 Bulls vs. Highlanders Mar 07 Bulls 3.20
7 Sunwolves vs. Brumbies Mar 08 Brumbies -17.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.20 7.99 1.20
Saracens 7.77 9.34 -1.60
Sale Sharks 5.10 0.17 4.90
Wasps 0.77 0.31 0.50
Gloucester 0.17 0.58 -0.40
Bath -0.47 1.10 -1.60
Bristol -0.89 -2.77 1.90
Northampton Saints -1.03 0.25 -1.30
Harlequins -1.57 -0.81 -0.80
Leicester Tigers -3.72 -1.76 -2.00
London Irish -4.41 -5.51 1.10
Worcester Warriors -4.69 -2.69 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Bristol Feb 29 13 – 19 6.30 FALSE
2 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Feb 29 17 – 23 0.30 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 29 34 – 30 -7.50 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 29 14 – 8 5.40 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Wasps Feb 29 26 – 36 0.50 FALSE
6 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Feb 29 21 – 27 -4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 07 Bristol 5.20
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Mar 07 Exeter Chiefs 14.20
3 Sale Sharks vs. London Irish Mar 07 Sale Sharks 14.00
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 07 Saracens 16.00
5 Wasps vs. Gloucester Mar 07 Wasps 5.10
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Mar 07 Worcester Warriors 0.80

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 11 Postponed Match

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Team Ratings for Round 11 Postponed Match

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.52 12.20 4.30
Munster 9.90 10.73 -0.80
Glasgow Warriors 5.71 9.66 -3.90
Edinburgh 5.48 1.24 4.20
Ulster 4.58 1.89 2.70
Scarlets 1.98 3.91 -1.90
Connacht 0.70 2.68 -2.00
Cardiff Blues 0.03 0.54 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.41 -3.38 3.00
Ospreys -2.82 2.80 -5.60
Treviso -4.03 -1.33 -2.70
Dragons -7.38 -9.31 1.90
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20
Zebre -15.37 -16.93 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 29 14 – 6 12.80 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Feb 29 55 – 19 15.80 TRUE
3 Munster vs. Scarlets Mar 01 29 – 10 13.40 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Cheetahs Mar 01 13 – 10 -1.20 FALSE
5 Southern Kings vs. Connacht Mar 01 19 – 29 -8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11 Postponed Match

Here are the predictions for Round 11 Postponed Match. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Treviso Feb 16 Dragons 2.20

 

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