Posts filed under Sports statistics (1809)

September 1, 2020

NRL Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.51 12.73 1.80
Roosters 11.84 12.25 -0.40
Panthers 6.74 -0.13 6.90
Raiders 6.11 7.06 -0.90
Rabbitohs 5.64 2.85 2.80
Eels 3.83 2.80 1.00
Sharks 1.01 1.81 -0.80
Knights -1.67 -5.92 4.30
Warriors -3.03 -5.17 2.10
Sea Eagles -3.11 1.05 -4.20
Wests Tigers -3.24 -0.18 -3.10
Dragons -4.11 -6.14 2.00
Bulldogs -6.27 -2.52 -3.80
Cowboys -7.18 -3.95 -3.20
Titans -10.99 -12.99 2.00
Broncos -12.07 -5.53 -6.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 27 0 – 38 3.50 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 28 10 – 14 10.40 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 28 58 – 12 23.90 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Warriors Aug 29 6 – 36 9.00 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Cowboys Aug 29 28 – 12 9.40 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 29 30 – 6 10.60 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Aug 30 30 – 6 16.70 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 30 34 – 20 14.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Panthers Sep 03 Panthers -16.80
2 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 04 Sharks -0.70
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Sep 04 Storm -6.90
4 Bulldogs vs. Titans Sep 05 Bulldogs 6.70
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Sep 05 Sea Eagles 2.10
6 Raiders vs. Roosters Sep 05 Roosters -3.70
7 Eels vs. Warriors Sep 06 Eels 11.40
8 Cowboys vs. Dragons Sep 06 Dragons -1.10

 

August 30, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

I got caught out a bit this round with games being played earlier in the week and then again on the weekend. As usual my predictions are what they would have been before the games were played, the predictions are produced by running my algorithm over the past data and information about home grounds.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.41 7.99 2.40
Saracens 7.39 9.34 -1.90
Sale Sharks 5.79 0.17 5.60
Wasps 1.79 0.31 1.50
Bath 1.08 1.10 -0.00
Bristol 0.96 -2.77 3.70
Gloucester -0.16 0.58 -0.70
Northampton Saints -1.24 0.25 -1.50
Harlequins -2.38 -0.81 -1.60
Leicester Tigers -4.42 -1.76 -2.70
Worcester Warriors -5.81 -2.69 -3.10
London Irish -7.20 -5.51 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks Aug 26 11 – 20 1.70 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Aug 26 22 – 25 -5.30 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Aug 27 13 – 7 7.50 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Aug 27 36 – 20 11.50 TRUE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Aug 27 29 – 14 -0.60 FALSE
6 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Aug 27 3 – 18 4.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Aug 30 Sale Sharks 9.30
2 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Aug 30 Harlequins 3.40
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors Aug 31 Exeter Chiefs 20.70
4 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Aug 31 Gloucester 8.80
5 London Irish vs. Saracens Aug 31 Saracens -10.10
6 Bath vs. Wasps Sep 01 Bath 3.80

 

August 25, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 3.34 4.67 -1.30
Reds 0.41 -0.31 0.70
Rebels -2.94 -5.52 2.60
Waratahs -4.96 -7.12 2.20
Force -14.14 -10.00 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Reds vs. Force Aug 21 57 – 5 14.30 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Aug 22 38 – 11 10.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brumbies vs. Force Aug 28 Brumbies 22.00
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Aug 29 Waratahs 2.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.59 7.99 2.60
Saracens 7.10 9.34 -2.20
Sale Sharks 5.19 0.17 5.00
Wasps 2.39 0.31 2.10
Bristol 0.78 -2.77 3.60
Gloucester 0.13 0.58 -0.50
Bath 0.09 1.10 -1.00
Northampton Saints -0.26 0.25 -0.50
Harlequins -1.55 -0.81 -0.70
Leicester Tigers -4.29 -1.76 -2.50
Worcester Warriors -6.64 -2.69 -4.00
London Irish -7.32 -5.51 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Aug 22 22 – 32 0.30 FALSE
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Aug 22 24 – 33 5.40 FALSE
3 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Aug 22 32 – 17 13.20 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Aug 22 38 – 24 13.00 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Aug 22 3 – 27 -0.20 TRUE
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Aug 23 16 – 38 2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks Aug 26 Wasps 1.70
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Aug 26 Exeter Chiefs -5.30
3 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Aug 27 Leicester Tigers 7.50
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Aug 27 Saracens 11.50
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Aug 27 Harlequins -0.60
6 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Aug 27 Northampton Saints 4.20

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.08 12.20 3.90
Munster 10.34 10.73 -0.40
Glasgow Warriors 6.39 9.66 -3.30
Edinburgh 4.76 1.24 3.50
Ulster 4.14 1.89 2.20
Scarlets 2.53 3.91 -1.40
Connacht 1.14 2.68 -1.50
Cheetahs -0.46 -3.38 2.90
Cardiff Blues -0.47 0.54 -1.00
Ospreys -3.27 2.80 -6.10
Treviso -4.26 -1.33 -2.90
Dragons -7.40 -9.31 1.90
Zebre -14.61 -16.93 2.30
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 95 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Treviso vs. Zebre Aug 22 13 – 17 16.90 FALSE
2 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Blues Aug 23 32 – 12 6.90 TRUE
3 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Aug 23 15 – 30 4.80 FALSE
4 Leinster vs. Munster Aug 23 27 – 25 11.60 TRUE
5 Ospreys vs. Dragons Aug 23 20 – 20 10.00 FALSE
6 Connacht vs. Ulster Aug 24 26 – 20 1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Aug 29 Glasgow Warriors 6.60
2 Dragons vs. Scarlets Aug 30 Scarlets -4.90
3 Ulster vs. Leinster Aug 30 Leinster -6.90
4 Munster vs. Connacht Aug 31 Munster 14.20
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Aug 31 Cardiff Blues 7.80
6 Zebre vs. Treviso Aug 31 Treviso -5.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.06 12.73 1.30
Roosters 10.82 12.25 -1.40
Raiders 6.16 7.06 -0.90
Panthers 6.04 -0.13 6.20
Eels 5.46 2.80 2.70
Rabbitohs 4.00 2.85 1.20
Sharks 0.59 1.81 -1.20
Knights -0.11 -5.92 5.80
Wests Tigers -2.54 -0.18 -2.40
Sea Eagles -2.67 1.05 -3.70
Dragons -3.37 -6.14 2.80
Warriors -4.59 -5.17 0.60
Bulldogs -6.32 -2.52 -3.80
Cowboys -6.77 -3.95 -2.80
Broncos -11.05 -5.53 -5.50
Titans -11.72 -12.99 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Storm Aug 20 14 – 0 -8.70 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Sharks Aug 21 38 – 12 5.50 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 21 24 – 28 -6.00 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Raiders Aug 22 16 – 36 -15.20 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Aug 22 16 – 38 -10.10 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 56 – 16 5.80 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Aug 23 14 – 20 3.90 FALSE
8 Knights vs. Cowboys Aug 23 12 – 0 8.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 27 Eels 3.50
2 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 28 Dragons 10.40
3 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 28 Roosters 23.90
4 Knights vs. Warriors Aug 29 Knights 9.00
5 Sharks vs. Cowboys Aug 29 Sharks 9.40
6 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 29 Panthers 10.60
7 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Aug 30 Storm 16.70
8 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Aug 30 Raiders 14.50

 

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August 21, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.52 12.20 4.30
Munster 9.90 10.73 -0.80
Glasgow Warriors 5.66 9.66 -4.00
Edinburgh 5.49 1.24 4.20
Ulster 4.58 1.89 2.70
Scarlets 1.98 3.91 -1.90
Connacht 0.70 2.68 -2.00
Cardiff Blues 0.08 0.54 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.46 -3.38 2.90
Ospreys -2.82 2.80 -5.60
Treviso -3.50 -1.33 -2.20
Dragons -7.85 -9.31 1.50
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.70 -0.20
Zebre -15.37 -16.93 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Treviso Feb 16 25 – 37 2.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Treviso vs. Zebre Aug 22 Treviso 16.90
2 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Blues Aug 23 Scarlets 6.90
3 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Aug 23 Edinburgh 4.80
4 Leinster vs. Munster Aug 23 Leinster 11.60
5 Ospreys vs. Dragons Aug 23 Ospreys 10.00
6 Connacht vs. Ulster Aug 24 Connacht 1.10

 

August 18, 2020

Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brumbies 2.23 4.67 -2.40
Reds -1.95 -0.31 -1.60
Rebels -2.94 -5.52 2.60
Waratahs -3.84 -7.12 3.30
Force -11.78 -10.00 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Force vs. Waratahs Aug 14 8 – 28 -6.00 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Rebels Aug 15 19 – 3 3.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Reds vs. Force Aug 21 Reds 14.30
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Aug 22 Brumbies 10.60

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.01 7.99 2.00
Saracens 7.01 9.34 -2.30
Sale Sharks 5.77 0.17 5.60
Wasps 2.25 0.31 1.90
Gloucester 0.91 0.58 0.30
Bristol 0.01 -2.77 2.80
Bath -1.12 1.10 -2.20
Northampton Saints -1.44 0.25 -1.70
Harlequins -1.47 -0.81 -0.70
Leicester Tigers -3.08 -1.76 -1.30
London Irish -6.14 -5.51 -0.60
Worcester Warriors -6.50 -2.69 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Aug 15 16 – 10 -3.90 FALSE
2 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Aug 15 15 – 44 -0.10 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Aug 15 26 – 13 18.20 TRUE
4 Bath vs. London Irish Aug 16 34 – 17 8.50 TRUE
5 Bristol vs. Saracens Aug 16 16 – 12 -3.40 FALSE
6 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps Aug 17 21 – 34 2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Aug 22 Sale Sharks 0.30
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Aug 22 Gloucester 5.40
3 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Aug 22 Wasps 13.20
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Aug 22 Saracens 13.00
5 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Aug 22 Northampton Saints -0.20
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Aug 23 Leicester Tigers 2.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.10 12.73 2.40
Roosters 10.18 12.25 -2.10
Raiders 5.83 7.06 -1.20
Panthers 5.07 -0.13 5.20
Eels 4.43 2.80 1.60
Rabbitohs 2.59 2.85 -0.30
Sharks 1.56 1.81 -0.20
Knights -0.38 -5.92 5.50
Sea Eagles -1.25 1.05 -2.30
Wests Tigers -1.90 -0.18 -1.70
Dragons -3.20 -6.14 2.90
Warriors -5.15 -5.17 0.00
Bulldogs -5.76 -2.52 -3.20
Cowboys -6.49 -3.95 -2.50
Broncos -11.22 -5.53 -5.70
Titans -11.40 -12.99 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Storm Aug 13 6 – 24 -1.30 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Aug 14 18 – 12 15.80 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 14 12 – 14 11.00 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Titans Aug 15 30 – 18 15.50 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Aug 15 30 – 31 -7.90 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Broncos Aug 15 36 – 8 17.90 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Aug 16 29 – 28 6.60 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Aug 16 26 – 24 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Storm Aug 20 Storm -8.70
2 Panthers vs. Sharks Aug 21 Panthers 5.50
3 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 21 Dragons -6.00
4 Titans vs. Raiders Aug 22 Raiders -15.20
5 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Aug 22 Roosters -10.10
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 Rabbitohs 5.80
7 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Aug 23 Bulldogs 3.90
8 Knights vs. Cowboys Aug 23 Knights 8.10

 

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