Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

October 23, 2018

Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 8.16 4.66 3.50
Sharks 4.52 4.18 0.30
Lions 2.56 3.23 -0.70
Cheetahs 2.23 3.86 -1.60
Blue Bulls 0.18 0.94 -0.80
Pumas -8.17 -8.36 0.20
Griquas -11.05 -9.78 -1.30
Cheetahs2 -29.69 -30.00 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 87%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Oct 20 33 – 24 6.00 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Oct 20 35 – 32 13.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.


Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Sharks Oct 27 Western Province 8.10

 

October 18, 2018

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 12.58 11.19 1.40
Exeter Chiefs 12.24 11.13 1.10
Wasps 6.28 8.30 -2.00
Leicester Tigers 4.75 6.26 -1.50
Gloucester Rugby 2.83 1.23 1.60
Northampton Saints 2.62 3.42 -0.80
Harlequins 2.16 2.05 0.10
Bath Rugby 1.32 3.11 -1.80
Sale Sharks -1.24 -0.81 -0.40
Worcester Warriors -2.05 -5.18 3.10
Newcastle Falcons -3.30 -3.51 0.20
Bristol -6.60 -5.60 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 05 24 – 39 -4.40 TRUE
2 Wasps vs. Gloucester Rugby Oct 06 21 – 35 11.00 FALSE
3 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 06 20 – 7 6.40 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 06 15 – 23 4.60 FALSE
5 Harlequins vs. Saracens Oct 06 20 – 25 -4.90 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol Oct 07 52 – 7 7.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester Rugby vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 16 Gloucester Rugby 3.60
2 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 16 Harlequins 11.00
3 Bath Rugby vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 17 Bath Rugby 8.90
4 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps Nov 17 Northampton Saints 1.80
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Nov 17 Saracens 19.30
6 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 18 Exeter Chiefs -13.30

 

October 16, 2018

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.65 15.32 -1.70
Wellington 13.30 12.18 1.10
Tasman 9.50 2.62 6.90
Auckland 9.27 -0.50 9.80
Waikato 6.49 -3.24 9.70
North Harbour 5.56 6.42 -0.90
Otago 0.34 0.33 0.00
Counties Manukau -2.03 1.84 -3.90
Taranaki -4.85 6.58 -11.40
Bay of Plenty -4.95 0.27 -5.20
Northland -6.02 -3.45 -2.60
Hawke’s Bay -7.21 -13.00 5.80
Manawatu -11.83 -4.36 -7.50
Southland -23.39 -23.17 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Auckland Oct 10 8 – 56 -23.80 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 11 29 – 0 18.90 TRUE
3 Taranaki vs. Wellington Oct 12 10 – 34 -12.00 TRUE
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Oct 13 38 – 35 5.50 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. Otago Oct 13 19 – 23 13.30 FALSE
6 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Oct 13 14 – 19 -13.10 TRUE
7 Auckland vs. North Harbour Oct 14 45 – 29 3.70 TRUE
8 Manawatu vs. Southland Oct 14 38 – 26 14.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Northland Oct 19 Waikato 16.50
2 Tasman vs. Canterbury Oct 19 Canterbury -0.20
3 Auckland vs. Wellington Oct 20 Wellington -0.00
4 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 20 Otago 11.50

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for the SemiFinals

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Team Ratings for the SemiFinals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 8.57 4.66 3.90
Sharks 4.28 4.18 0.10
Lions 2.80 3.23 -0.40
Cheetahs 2.23 3.86 -1.60
Blue Bulls -0.22 0.94 -1.20
Pumas -8.17 -8.36 0.20
Griquas -11.05 -9.78 -1.30
Cheetahs2 -29.69 -30.00 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Lions Oct 12 21 – 33 -5.40 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Oct 13 11 – 41 -9.50 TRUE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 13 7 – 34 -2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the SemiFinals

Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.


Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Lions Oct 20 Sharks 6.00
2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Oct 20 Western Province 13.30

 

October 9, 2018

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 14.38 15.32 -0.90
Wellington 12.22 12.18 0.00
Tasman 8.59 2.62 6.00
Waikato 8.04 -3.24 11.30
North Harbour 6.47 6.42 0.10
Auckland 6.18 -0.50 6.70
Otago -1.22 0.33 -1.50
Counties Manukau -2.77 1.84 -4.60
Taranaki -3.77 6.58 -10.30
Bay of Plenty -4.72 0.27 -5.00
Northland -6.24 -3.45 -2.80
Hawke’s Bay -6.30 -13.00 6.70
Manawatu -11.44 -4.36 -7.10
Southland -21.60 -23.17 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 03 45 – 34 8.30 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Auckland Oct 04 24 – 29 13.30 FALSE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Oct 05 45 – 17 5.00 TRUE
4 Northland vs. Waikato Oct 06 28 – 71 -3.10 TRUE
5 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Oct 06 36 – 26 14.00 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 06 41 – 7 19.50 TRUE
7 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 07 22 – 26 -15.10 TRUE
8 Otago vs. Tasman Oct 07 21 – 47 -1.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Auckland Oct 10 Auckland -23.80
2 Tasman vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 11 Tasman 18.90
3 Taranaki vs. Wellington Oct 12 Wellington -12.00
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Oct 13 Bay of Plenty 5.50
5 Waikato vs. Otago Oct 13 Waikato 13.30
6 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Oct 13 Canterbury -13.10
7 Auckland vs. North Harbour Oct 14 Auckland 3.70
8 Manawatu vs. Southland Oct 14 Manawatu 14.20

 

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October 2, 2018

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 13.87 12.18 1.70
Canterbury 13.08 15.32 -2.20
North Harbour 6.83 6.42 0.40
Tasman 6.37 2.62 3.80
Auckland 4.53 -0.50 5.00
Waikato 4.45 -3.24 7.70
Otago 0.75 0.33 0.40
Taranaki -2.47 6.58 -9.00
Northland -2.65 -3.45 0.80
Counties Manukau -3.12 1.84 -5.00
Bay of Plenty -3.50 0.27 -3.80
Hawke’s Bay -8.37 -13.00 4.60
Manawatu -9.37 -4.36 -5.00
Southland -22.57 -23.17 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Sep 26 55 – 41 -4.20 FALSE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sep 27 15 – 17 12.50 FALSE
3 Auckland vs. Otago Sep 28 26 – 31 10.60 FALSE
4 Waikato vs. Southland Sep 29 42 – 11 31.00 TRUE
5 Taranaki vs. North Harbour Sep 29 26 – 55 -0.10 TRUE
6 Wellington vs. Tasman Sep 29 22 – 28 15.30 FALSE
7 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 30 49 – 24 27.20 TRUE
8 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 30 20 – 24 3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 03 Otago 8.30
2 Wellington vs. Auckland Oct 04 Wellington 13.30
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Oct 05 Hawke’s Bay 5.00
4 Northland vs. Waikato Oct 06 Waikato -3.10
5 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Oct 06 North Harbour 14.00
6 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 06 Canterbury 19.50
7 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 07 Bay of Plenty -15.10
8 Otago vs. Tasman Oct 07 Tasman -1.60

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.82 4.66 3.20
Sharks 3.62 4.18 -0.60
Lions 2.27 3.23 -1.00
Cheetahs 2.23 3.86 -1.60
Blue Bulls 0.52 0.94 -0.40
Pumas -7.64 -8.36 0.70
Griquas -10.39 -9.78 -0.60
Cheetahs2 -29.69 -30.00 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Sharks Sep 29 50 – 28 7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.


Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Lions Oct 12 Lions -5.40
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Oct 13 Sharks -9.50
3 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 13 Western Province -2.80

 

September 25, 2018

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.13 16.73 -8.60
Roosters 7.37 0.13 7.20
Sharks 4.08 2.20 1.90
Rabbitohs 3.73 -3.90 7.60
Broncos 2.73 4.78 -2.10
Raiders 1.85 3.50 -1.70
Panthers 0.87 2.64 -1.80
Cowboys 0.13 2.97 -2.80
Dragons -0.06 -0.45 0.40
Warriors -0.74 -6.97 6.20
Bulldogs -0.82 -3.43 2.60
Titans -4.06 -8.91 4.90
Wests Tigers -5.43 -3.63 -1.80
Sea Eagles -5.47 -1.07 -4.40
Eels -5.98 1.51 -7.50
Knights -8.66 -8.43 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 126 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Sharks Sep 21 22 – 6 2.10 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 22 12 – 4 2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Storm Sep 30 Roosters 2.20

 

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Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 15.79 12.18 3.60
Canterbury 13.13 15.32 -2.20
Auckland 5.93 -0.50 6.40
Waikato 4.45 -3.24 7.70
Tasman 4.45 2.62 1.80
North Harbour 4.23 6.42 -2.20
Taranaki 0.13 6.58 -6.40
Otago -0.65 0.33 -1.00
Northland -1.84 -3.45 1.60
Bay of Plenty -2.20 0.27 -2.50
Counties Manukau -2.30 1.84 -4.10
Hawke’s Bay -10.06 -13.00 2.90
Manawatu -10.67 -4.36 -6.30
Southland -22.57 -23.17 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Tasman Sep 19 19 – 29 -9.90 TRUE
2 Northland vs. Southland Sep 20 26 – 10 26.70 TRUE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Sep 21 21 – 54 4.00 FALSE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Sep 22 34 – 51 -8.80 TRUE
5 Otago vs. Canterbury Sep 22 25 – 47 -7.10 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sep 22 30 – 31 -2.00 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 23 21 – 19 12.70 TRUE
8 Manawatu vs. Wellington Sep 23 7 – 49 -18.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Sep 26 Northland -4.20
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sep 27 Bay of Plenty 12.50
3 Auckland vs. Otago Sep 28 Auckland 10.60
4 Waikato vs. Southland Sep 29 Waikato 31.00
5 Taranaki vs. North Harbour Sep 29 North Harbour -0.10
6 Wellington vs. Tasman Sep 29 Wellington 15.30
7 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 30 Canterbury 27.20
8 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 30 Counties Manukau 3.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.31 4.66 2.60
Sharks 4.13 4.18 -0.10
Lions 2.27 3.23 -1.00
Cheetahs 2.23 3.86 -1.60
Blue Bulls 0.52 0.94 -0.40
Pumas -7.64 -8.36 0.70
Griquas -10.39 -9.78 -0.60
Cheetahs2 -29.69 -30.00 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 17 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs2 vs. Pumas Sep 22 14 – 42 -16.70 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Lions Sep 22 37 – 21 5.50 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 22 38 – 12 21.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.


Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Sharks Sep 29 Western Province 7.70

 

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