Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

September 18, 2018

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.16 16.73 -9.60
Roosters 7.01 0.13 6.90
Sharks 5.05 2.20 2.80
Rabbitohs 4.09 -3.90 8.00
Broncos 2.73 4.78 -2.10
Raiders 1.85 3.50 -1.70
Panthers 0.87 2.64 -1.80
Cowboys 0.13 2.97 -2.80
Dragons -0.06 -0.45 0.40
Warriors -0.74 -6.97 6.20
Bulldogs -0.82 -3.43 2.60
Titans -4.06 -8.91 4.90
Wests Tigers -5.43 -3.63 -1.80
Sea Eagles -5.47 -1.07 -4.40
Eels -5.98 1.51 -7.50
Knights -8.66 -8.43 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 124 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Panthers Sep 14 21 – 20 4.70 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Sep 15 13 – 12 4.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Sharks Sep 21 Storm 2.10
2 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 22 Roosters 2.90

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 13.65 12.18 1.50
Canterbury 11.79 15.32 -3.50
Auckland 6.02 -0.50 6.50
Tasman 5.40 2.62 2.80
North Harbour 3.49 6.42 -2.90
Waikato 2.92 -3.24 6.20
Bay of Plenty 1.13 0.27 0.90
Otago 0.69 0.33 0.40
Taranaki 0.05 6.58 -6.50
Northland -0.88 -3.45 2.60
Counties Manukau -3.26 1.84 -5.10
Manawatu -8.52 -4.36 -4.20
Hawke’s Bay -11.12 -13.00 1.90
Southland -23.53 -23.17 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 12 21 – 31 -5.80 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 13 42 – 2 13.20 TRUE
3 Northland vs. Manawatu Sep 14 49 – 19 7.60 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Taranaki Sep 14 53 – 17 3.50 TRUE
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Sep 15 12 – 53 -6.70 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Otago Sep 15 24 – 43 -20.50 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 16 32 – 20 5.50 TRUE
8 Canterbury vs. Auckland Sep 16 29 – 34 12.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Tasman Sep 19 Tasman -9.90
2 Northland vs. Southland Sep 20 Northland 26.70
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Sep 21 Bay of Plenty 2.20
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Sep 22 North Harbour -10.60
5 Otago vs. Canterbury Sep 22 Canterbury -7.10
6 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sep 22 Auckland -2.00
7 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 23 Tasman 12.70
8 Manawatu vs. Wellington Sep 23 Wellington -18.20

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

By

 

 

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.94 4.66 2.30
Sharks 3.72 4.18 -0.50
Lions 2.69 3.23 -0.50
Cheetahs 2.23 3.86 -1.60
Blue Bulls 0.52 0.94 -0.40
Pumas -8.08 -8.36 0.30
Griquas -10.02 -9.78 -0.20
Cheetahs2 -29.25 -30.00 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Western Province Sep 15 38 – 65 1.90 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs2 Sep 15 52 – 24 22.90 TRUE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Pumas Sep 15 39 – 29 13.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.


Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs2 vs. Pumas Sep 22 Pumas -16.70
2 Sharks vs. Lions Sep 22 Sharks 5.50
3 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 22 Western Province 21.50

 

September 11, 2018

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.16 16.73 -9.60
Roosters 7.01 0.13 6.90
Sharks 5.31 2.20 3.10
Rabbitohs 4.34 -3.90 8.20
Broncos 2.73 4.78 -2.10
Raiders 1.85 3.50 -1.70
Panthers 0.61 2.64 -2.00
Cowboys 0.13 2.97 -2.80
Dragons -0.31 -0.45 0.10
Warriors -0.74 -6.97 6.20
Bulldogs -0.82 -3.43 2.60
Titans -4.06 -8.91 4.90
Wests Tigers -5.43 -3.63 -1.80
Sea Eagles -5.47 -1.07 -4.40
Eels -5.98 1.51 -7.50
Knights -8.66 -8.43 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 122 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Sep 07 29 – 28 6.60 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Sep 08 27 – 12 4.40 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Sharks Sep 08 21 – 12 4.00 TRUE
4 Broncos vs. Dragons Sep 09 18 – 48 11.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Panthers Sep 14 Sharks 4.70
2 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Sep 15 Rabbitohs 4.70

 

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Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.03 15.32 -2.30
Wellington 10.56 12.18 -1.60
Auckland 4.39 -0.50 4.90
North Harbour 3.25 6.42 -3.20
Taranaki 2.97 6.58 -3.60
Tasman 2.48 2.62 -0.10
Bay of Plenty 1.75 0.27 1.50
Otago 0.82 0.33 0.50
Waikato 0.51 -3.24 3.70
Counties Manukau -0.17 1.84 -2.00
Northland -2.89 -3.45 0.60
Manawatu -6.51 -4.36 -2.10
Hawke’s Bay -8.71 -13.00 4.30
Southland -23.66 -23.17 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 05 43 – 31 -12.70 FALSE
2 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Sep 06 34 – 23 26.30 TRUE
3 Otago vs. Northland Sep 07 27 – 23 8.50 TRUE
4 Auckland vs. Tasman Sep 07 36 – 10 1.50 TRUE
5 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 08 26 – 43 -20.00 TRUE
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 08 29 – 28 -8.10 FALSE
7 Wellington vs. North Harbour Sep 09 35 – 23 13.40 TRUE
8 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 09 19 – 33 13.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 12 Canterbury -5.80
2 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 13 Waikato 13.20
3 Northland vs. Manawatu Sep 14 Northland 7.60
4 Tasman vs. Taranaki Sep 14 Tasman 3.50
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Sep 15 Wellington -6.70
6 Southland vs. Otago Sep 15 Otago -20.50
7 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 16 North Harbour 5.50
8 Canterbury vs. Auckland Sep 16 Canterbury 12.60

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.10 4.66 1.40
Sharks 3.72 4.18 -0.50
Lions 3.53 3.23 0.30
Cheetahs 2.23 3.86 -1.60
Blue Bulls 0.81 0.94 -0.10
Pumas -8.38 -8.36 -0.00
Griquas -10.43 -9.78 -0.60
Cheetahs2 -28.85 -30.00 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 11 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Sep 07 28 – 12 16.70 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Blue Bulls Sep 08 40 – 45 -7.10 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Cheetahs2 Sep 08 47 – 14 37.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.


Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Western Province Sep 15 Lions 1.90
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs2 Sep 15 Griquas 22.90
3 Blue Bulls vs. Pumas Sep 15 Blue Bulls 13.70

 

September 4, 2018

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.55 16.73 -9.20
Roosters 6.66 0.13 6.50
Broncos 5.67 4.78 0.90
Sharks 5.66 2.20 3.50
Rabbitohs 3.95 -3.90 7.80
Raiders 1.85 3.50 -1.70
Cowboys 0.13 2.97 -2.80
Warriors 0.01 -6.97 7.00
Panthers -0.14 2.64 -2.80
Bulldogs -0.82 -3.43 2.60
Dragons -3.25 -0.45 -2.80
Titans -4.06 -8.91 4.90
Wests Tigers -5.43 -3.63 -1.80
Sea Eagles -5.47 -1.07 -4.40
Eels -5.98 1.51 -7.50
Knights -8.66 -8.43 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 30 51 – 10 7.70 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 31 20 – 16 2.40 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Panthers Aug 31 16 – 22 13.40 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Dragons Sep 01 14 – 24 -1.20 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Cowboys Sep 01 26 – 30 -0.70 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Roosters Sep 01 10 – 44 -5.70 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Sep 02 18 – 30 -2.10 TRUE
8 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Sep 02 48 – 16 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Sep 07 Storm 6.60
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Sep 08 Panthers 4.40
3 Roosters vs. Sharks Sep 08 Roosters 4.00
4 Broncos vs. Dragons Sep 09 Broncos 11.90

 

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Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 14.41 15.32 -0.90
Wellington 12.71 12.18 0.50
Taranaki 5.22 6.58 -1.40
Tasman 4.68 2.62 2.10
North Harbour 3.32 6.42 -3.10
Bay of Plenty 2.57 0.27 2.30
Auckland 2.19 -0.50 2.70
Otago 1.23 0.33 0.90
Counties Manukau 0.10 1.84 -1.70
Northland -3.30 -3.45 0.10
Waikato -3.96 -3.24 -0.70
Manawatu -7.89 -4.36 -3.50
Hawke’s Bay -9.53 -13.00 3.50
Southland -23.94 -23.17 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Aug 29 19 – 26 -0.30 TRUE
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Aug 30 35 – 17 8.40 TRUE
3 Wellington vs. Southland Aug 31 52 – 7 39.70 TRUE
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Sep 01 19 – 31 -6.90 TRUE
5 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 01 17 – 50 1.00 FALSE
6 North Harbour vs. Tasman Sep 01 20 – 32 5.90 FALSE
7 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 25 – 29 -6.60 TRUE
8 Northland vs. Taranaki Sep 02 18 – 17 -5.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 05 Wellington -12.70
2 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Sep 06 Canterbury 26.30
3 Otago vs. Northland Sep 07 Otago 8.50
4 Auckland vs. Tasman Sep 07 Auckland 1.50
5 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 08 Counties Manukau -20.00
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 08 Bay of Plenty -8.10
7 Wellington vs. North Harbour Sep 09 Wellington 13.40
8 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 09 Taranaki 13.20

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Note that Cheetahs2 refers the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.10 4.66 1.40
Lions 3.90 3.23 0.70
Sharks 3.77 4.18 -0.40
Cheetahs 2.23 3.86 -1.60
Blue Bulls 0.98 0.94 0.00
Pumas -8.43 -8.36 -0.10
Griquas -10.60 -9.78 -0.80
Cheetahs2 -29.22 -30.00 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Western Province Aug 31 28 – 57 -8.70 TRUE
2 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Sep 01 35 – 38 2.50 FALSE
3 Cheetahs2 vs. Sharks Sep 01 29 – 33 -30.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Sep 07 Sharks 16.70
2 Griquas vs. Blue Bulls Sep 08 Blue Bulls -7.10
3 Lions vs. Cheetahs2 Sep 08 Lions 37.60

 

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August 28, 2018

NRL Predictions for Round 25

By

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.91 16.73 -7.80
Sharks 4.97 2.20 2.80
Roosters 4.68 0.13 4.50
Broncos 4.21 4.78 -0.60
Raiders 1.96 3.50 -1.50
Rabbitohs 1.62 -3.90 5.50
Cowboys -0.09 2.97 -3.10
Warriors -0.10 -6.97 6.90
Bulldogs -0.12 -3.43 3.30
Panthers -1.50 2.64 -4.10
Wests Tigers -3.10 -3.63 0.50
Titans -3.84 -8.91 5.10
Dragons -3.87 -0.45 -3.40
Eels -4.00 1.51 -5.50
Sea Eagles -4.02 -1.07 -3.00
Knights -8.04 -8.43 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 112 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 23 22 – 20 4.20 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Panthers Aug 24 36 – 16 3.60 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Eels Aug 24 44 – 6 1.80 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Aug 25 24 – 12 1.90 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Storm Aug 25 8 – 10 -11.00 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 25 8 – 22 6.30 FALSE
7 Sharks vs. Knights Aug 26 38 – 12 14.40 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Aug 26 0 – 38 5.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 30 Rabbitohs 7.70
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 31 Warriors 2.40
3 Storm vs. Panthers Aug 31 Storm 13.40
4 Knights vs. Dragons Sep 01 Dragons -1.20
5 Titans vs. Cowboys Sep 01 Cowboys -0.70
6 Eels vs. Roosters Sep 01 Roosters -5.70
7 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Sep 02 Sharks -2.10
8 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Sep 02 Broncos 11.20

 

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