Posts filed under Sports statistics (1772)

February 28, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Raiders 9.94 9.94 -0.00
Storm 8.49 8.49 0.00
Cowboys 6.90 6.90 -0.00
Panthers 6.08 6.08 -0.00
Sharks 5.84 5.84 -0.00
Broncos 4.36 4.36 -0.00
Eels -0.81 -0.81 -0.00
Titans -0.98 -0.98 -0.00
Roosters -1.17 -1.17 -0.00
Bulldogs -1.34 -1.34 -0.00
Rabbitohs -1.82 -1.82 -0.00
Sea Eagles -2.98 -2.98 -0.00
Wests Tigers -3.89 -3.89 0.00
Warriors -6.02 -6.02 -0.00
Dragons -7.74 -7.74 -0.00
Knights -16.94 -16.94 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Broncos Mar 02 Sharks 5.00
2 Bulldogs vs. Storm Mar 03 Storm -6.30
3 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Mar 03 Rabbitohs 5.60
4 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 04 Panthers -10.30
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 04 Cowboys 0.50
6 Titans vs. Roosters Mar 04 Titans 3.70
7 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 05 Warriors 14.90
8 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 05 Sea Eagles 1.30

 

February 21, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 13.22 13.22 -0.00
Chiefs 9.75 9.75 -0.00
Highlanders 9.17 9.17 0.00
Crusaders 8.75 8.75 0.00
Lions 7.64 7.64 0.00
Waratahs 5.81 5.81 -0.00
Brumbies 3.83 3.83 0.00
Stormers 1.51 1.51 0.00
Sharks 0.42 0.42 -0.00
Bulls 0.29 0.29 0.00
Blues -1.07 -1.07 0.00
Jaguares -4.36 -4.36 -0.00
Cheetahs -7.36 -7.36 0.00
Rebels -8.17 -8.17 -0.00
Force -9.45 -9.45 0.00
Reds -10.28 -10.28 0.00
Sunwolves -17.76 -17.76 0.00
Kings -19.02 -19.02 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Blues Feb 23 Blues -3.10
2 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Feb 24 Highlanders 2.90
3 Reds vs. Sharks Feb 24 Sharks -6.70
4 Sunwolves vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 Hurricanes -27.00
5 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Feb 25 Crusaders 8.90
6 Waratahs vs. Force Feb 25 Waratahs 18.80
7 Cheetahs vs. Lions Feb 25 Lions -11.50
8 Kings vs. Jaguares Feb 25 Jaguares -10.70
9 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 25 Stormers 4.70

 

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October 25, 2016

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

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Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 14.53 12.85 1.70
Tasman 10.59 8.71 1.90
Taranaki 7.38 8.25 -0.90
Auckland 6.55 11.34 -4.80
Counties Manukau 5.89 2.45 3.40
Otago 0.44 0.54 -0.10
Waikato -0.37 -4.31 3.90
Wellington -1.72 4.32 -6.00
North Harbour -2.53 -8.15 5.60
Manawatu -3.94 -6.71 2.80
Bay of Plenty -4.25 -5.54 1.30
Hawke’s Bay -5.76 1.85 -7.60
Northland -13.35 -19.37 6.00
Southland -16.96 -9.71 -7.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 21 27 – 20 9.10 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. North Harbour Oct 22 37 – 40 6.50 FALSE
3 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Oct 23 22 – 7 12.10 TRUE
4 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 23 29 – 41 3.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. North Harbour Oct 28 Otago 7.00
2 Canterbury vs. Tasman Oct 29 Canterbury 7.90

 

October 18, 2016

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 14.27 12.85 1.40
Tasman 9.18 8.71 0.50
Taranaki 8.78 8.25 0.50
Auckland 6.55 11.34 -4.80
Counties Manukau 6.15 2.45 3.70
Otago 0.63 0.54 0.10
Waikato -0.37 -4.31 3.90
Wellington -0.86 4.32 -5.20
North Harbour -3.39 -8.15 4.80
Manawatu -3.94 -6.71 2.80
Bay of Plenty -4.43 -5.54 1.10
Hawke’s Bay -5.76 1.85 -7.60
Northland -13.35 -19.37 6.00
Southland -16.96 -9.71 -7.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Tasman Oct 12 27 – 27 -8.30 FALSE
2 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 13 35 – 32 6.90 TRUE
3 Manawatu vs. Otago Oct 14 14 – 21 0.80 FALSE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Oct 15 33 – 21 -7.70 FALSE
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 15 24 – 26 3.70 FALSE
6 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 15 24 – 28 5.20 FALSE
7 Tasman vs. Southland Oct 16 56 – 0 25.20 TRUE
8 Northland vs. North Harbour Oct 16 28 – 44 -3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 21 Otago 9.10
2 Wellington vs. North Harbour Oct 22 Wellington 6.50
3 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Oct 23 Canterbury 12.10
4 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 23 Taranaki 3.60

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.42 9.69 -0.30
Cheetahs 7.26 -3.42 10.70
Blue Bulls 4.82 1.80 3.00
Western Province 2.97 6.46 -3.50
Sharks 2.67 -0.60 3.30
Pumas -12.52 -8.62 -3.90
Griquas -12.69 -12.45 -0.20
Cavaliers -13.07 -10.00 -3.10
Kings -20.29 -14.29 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 37 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 15 36 – 30 5.20 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Lions Oct 15 55 – 17 -2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Oct 22 Cheetahs 5.90

 

October 11, 2016

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.04 12.85 3.20
Taranaki 9.13 8.25 0.90
Tasman 7.10 8.71 -1.60
Auckland 6.19 11.34 -5.10
Counties Manukau 4.38 2.45 1.90
Wellington -0.03 4.32 -4.40
Otago -0.08 0.54 -0.60
Waikato -1.19 -4.31 3.10
Manawatu -3.24 -6.71 3.50
Bay of Plenty -4.95 -5.54 0.60
North Harbour -5.24 -8.15 2.90
Hawke’s Bay -5.25 1.85 -7.10
Northland -12.25 -19.37 7.10
Southland -14.12 -9.71 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Wellington Oct 05 50 – 28 -5.90 FALSE
2 Auckland vs. Tasman Oct 06 31 – 49 7.70 FALSE
3 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Oct 07 47 – 18 24.50 TRUE
4 Southland vs. Northland Oct 08 39 – 31 0.80 TRUE
5 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Oct 08 14 – 16 -0.10 TRUE
6 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 08 46 – 22 4.60 TRUE
7 Wellington vs. Taranaki Oct 09 31 – 54 1.30 FALSE
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 09 38 – 33 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Tasman Oct 12 Tasman -8.30
2 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 13 Taranaki 6.90
3 Manawatu vs. Otago Oct 14 Manawatu 0.80
4 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Oct 15 Canterbury -7.70
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 15 Hawke’s Bay 3.70
6 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 15 Wellington 5.20
7 Tasman vs. Southland Oct 16 Tasman 25.20
8 Northland vs. North Harbour Oct 16 North Harbour -3.00

 

October 4, 2016

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 15.64 12.85 2.80
Auckland 8.51 11.34 -2.80
Taranaki 7.18 8.25 -1.10
Tasman 4.78 8.71 -3.90
Wellington 4.43 4.32 0.10
Counties Manukau 4.21 2.45 1.80
Otago 0.09 0.54 -0.40
Waikato -2.94 -4.31 1.40
Hawke’s Bay -3.50 1.85 -5.30
North Harbour -4.83 -8.15 3.30
Bay of Plenty -5.24 -5.54 0.30
Manawatu -5.45 -6.71 1.30
Northland -11.60 -19.37 7.80
Southland -14.77 -9.71 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sep 28 23 – 29 -13.00 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 29 15 – 10 4.50 TRUE
3 Wellington vs. Southland Sep 30 60 – 21 19.70 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 01 44 – 34 3.20 TRUE
5 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 01 21 – 30 4.50 FALSE
6 Auckland vs. Otago Oct 01 54 – 17 7.00 TRUE
7 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Oct 02 34 – 39 -5.00 TRUE
8 Northland vs. Waikato Oct 02 48 – 27 -9.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Wellington Oct 05 Wellington -5.90
2 Auckland vs. Tasman Oct 06 Auckland 7.70
3 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Oct 07 Canterbury 24.50
4 Southland vs. Northland Oct 08 Southland 0.80
5 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Oct 08 Counties Manukau -0.10
6 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 08 Waikato 4.60
7 Wellington vs. Taranaki Oct 09 Wellington 1.30
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 09 Bay of Plenty 4.20

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 11.35 9.69 1.70
Cheetahs 5.33 -3.42 8.70
Blue Bulls 4.74 1.80 2.90
Western Province 3.05 6.46 -3.40
Sharks 2.67 -0.60 3.30
Griquas -12.69 -12.45 -0.20
Cavaliers -13.07 -10.00 -3.10
Pumas -13.22 -8.62 -4.60
Kings -19.59 -14.29 -5.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Sharks Sep 30 28 – 16 12.20 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Cavaliers Sep 30 30 – 28 21.80 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Kings Sep 30 38 – 30 10.30 TRUE
4 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Oct 01 63 – 26 19.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 15 Blue Bulls 5.20
2 Cheetahs vs. Lions Oct 15 Lions -2.50

 

September 27, 2016

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Raiders 10.05 -0.55 10.60
Storm 9.36 4.41 4.90
Cowboys 7.77 10.29 -2.50
Panthers 6.14 -3.06 9.20
Sharks 5.65 -1.06 6.70
Broncos 5.20 9.81 -4.60
Roosters -0.08 11.20 -11.30
Eels -0.82 -4.62 3.80
Bulldogs -1.03 1.50 -2.50
Titans -1.31 -8.39 7.10
Rabbitohs -1.55 -1.20 -0.30
Sea Eagles -2.83 0.36 -3.20
Wests Tigers -4.05 -4.06 0.00
Warriors -6.26 -7.47 1.20
Dragons -7.44 -0.10 -7.30
Knights -17.13 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 23 32 – 20 -0.90 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 24 14 – 12 2.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Note that because that is how it appears in the official fixture list, I have listed the Storm as the first team here which is normally the home team. I have treated the venue as neutral. If the Sharks are considered to have home ground advantage, the expected margin drops to 0.70, still a win to the Storm, but close to even money.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Sharks Oct 02 Storm 3.70

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.20 12.85 3.30
Taranaki 7.24 8.25 -1.00
Auckland 5.81 11.34 -5.50
Tasman 4.73 8.71 -4.00
Counties Manukau 4.26 2.45 1.80
Otago 2.79 0.54 2.30
Wellington 2.70 4.32 -1.60
Waikato -0.75 -4.31 3.60
Manawatu -4.24 -6.71 2.50
Bay of Plenty -4.63 -5.54 0.90
Hawke’s Bay -4.71 1.85 -6.60
North Harbour -5.44 -8.15 2.70
Southland -13.04 -9.71 -3.30
Northland -14.42 -19.37 5.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 21 20 – 16 -4.90 FALSE
2 Northland vs. Wellington Sep 22 21 – 29 -14.20 TRUE
3 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Sep 23 35 – 26 9.00 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Otago Sep 24 45 – 34 18.80 TRUE
5 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Sep 24 30 – 19 16.50 TRUE
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 24 29 – 36 -5.10 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Southland Sep 25 35 – 14 10.30 TRUE
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Sep 25 38 – 44 -5.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sep 28 Canterbury -13.00
2 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 29 Tasman 4.50
3 Wellington vs. Southland Sep 30 Wellington 19.70
4 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 01 North Harbour 3.20
5 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 01 Manawatu 4.50
6 Auckland vs. Otago Oct 01 Auckland 7.00
7 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Oct 02 Canterbury -5.00
8 Northland vs. Waikato Oct 02 Waikato -9.70

 

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