Posts filed under Sports statistics (1776)

March 2, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.84 9.84 -1.00
Highlanders 6.15 6.80 -0.60
Brumbies 5.68 3.15 2.50
Waratahs 4.99 4.88 0.10
Hurricanes 4.73 7.26 -2.50
Chiefs 3.68 2.68 1.00
Stormers 0.60 -0.62 1.20
Sharks -0.05 -1.64 1.60
Lions -1.28 -1.80 0.50
Bulls -1.96 -0.74 -1.20
Blues -4.86 -5.51 0.60
Rebels -5.89 -6.33 0.40
Force -8.88 -8.43 -0.40
Cheetahs -9.62 -9.27 -0.30
Jaguares -9.66 -10.00 0.30
Reds -9.92 -9.81 -0.10
Sunwolves -10.53 -10.00 -0.50
Kings -15.25 -13.66 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 44.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Feb 26 33 – 31 -8.80 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Feb 26 52 – 10 -0.10 FALSE
3 Cheetahs vs. Jaguares Feb 26 33 – 34 4.70 FALSE
4 Sunwolves vs. Lions Feb 27 13 – 26 -4.20 TRUE
5 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Feb 27 21 – 27 10.70 FALSE
6 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 27 30 – 10 18.20 TRUE
7 Force vs. Rebels Feb 27 19 – 25 1.40 FALSE
8 Kings vs. Sharks Feb 27 8 – 43 -8.50 TRUE
9 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 27 33 – 9 3.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Mar 04 Crusaders 17.20
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 04 Brumbies 4.20
3 Chiefs vs. Lions Mar 05 Chiefs 9.00
4 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 05 Highlanders 4.90
5 Reds vs. Force Mar 05 Reds 2.50
6 Bulls vs. Rebels Mar 05 Bulls 7.90
7 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Mar 05 Stormers -6.70
8 Sharks vs. Jaguares Mar 05 Sharks 13.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.20 11.20 -0.00
Cowboys 10.29 10.29 -0.00
Broncos 9.81 9.81 0.00
Storm 4.41 4.41 -0.00
Bulldogs 1.50 1.50 0.00
Sea Eagles 0.36 0.36 -0.00
Dragons -0.10 -0.10 -0.00
Raiders -0.55 -0.55 0.00
Sharks -1.06 -1.06 -0.00
Rabbitohs -1.20 -1.20 0.00
Panthers -3.06 -3.06 -0.00
Wests Tigers -4.06 -4.06 -0.00
Eels -4.62 -4.62 0.00
Knights -5.41 -5.41 0.00
Warriors -7.47 -7.47 -0.00
Titans -8.39 -8.39 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Broncos Mar 03 Broncos -11.40
2 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 04 Sea Eagles 1.90
3 Raiders vs. Panthers Mar 05 Raiders 5.50
4 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 05 Wests Tigers 7.40
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 05 Cowboys 14.40
6 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 06 Roosters 15.40
7 Titans vs. Knights Mar 06 Titans 0.00
8 Storm vs. Dragons Mar 07 Storm 7.50

 

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February 28, 2016

Forecasts and betting

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The StatsChat rugby predictions are pretty good, but not different enough from general educated opinion that you could make serious money betting with them.

By contrast, there’s a professor of political science who has an election forecasting model with a 97+% chance that Trump will be president if he is the Republican nominee.

If you were in the UK or NZ, and you actually believed this predicted probability, you could go to PaddyPower.com and bet at 9/4 on Trump winning  and at 3/1 on Rubio being the nominee. If you bet $3x on Trump and hedge with $1x on Rubio, you’ll almost certainly get your money back if Trump isn’t the nominee, and the prediction says you’ll have a 97% chance of more than doubling your money if he is.

Since I’m not betting like that, you can deduce I think the 97% chance is wildly inflated.

February 24, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.84 9.84 0.00
Hurricanes 7.26 7.26 0.00
Highlanders 6.80 6.80 0.00
Waratahs 4.88 4.88 0.00
Brumbies 3.15 3.15 0.00
Chiefs 2.68 2.68 0.00
Stormers -0.62 -0.62 0.00
Bulls -0.74 -0.74 -0.00
Sharks -1.64 -1.64 0.00
Lions -1.80 -1.80 0.00
Blues -5.51 -5.51 -0.00
Rebels -6.33 -6.33 0.00
Force -8.43 -8.43 0.00
Cheetahs -9.27 -9.27 0.00
Reds -9.81 -9.81 0.00
Jaguares -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Sunwolves -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Kings -13.66 -13.66 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Feb 26 Highlanders -8.80
2 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Feb 26 Hurricanes -0.10
3 Cheetahs vs. Jaguares Feb 26 Cheetahs 4.70
4 Sunwolves vs. Lions Feb 27 Lions -4.20
5 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Feb 27 Crusaders 10.70
6 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 27 Waratahs 18.20
7 Force vs. Rebels Feb 27 Force 1.40
8 Kings vs. Sharks Feb 27 Sharks -8.50
9 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 27 Stormers 3.60

 

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January 11, 2016

Meet Statistics summer scholar Christopher Nottingham

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Chris NottinghamEvery summer, the Department of Statistics offers scholarships to a number of students so they can work with staff on real-world projects. Christopher, right, is working with Associate Professor David Scott on All Blacks-related data. Christopher explains:

“My project is aimed at predicting the career lengths of current and future All Blacks based on data from all of the past All Blacks. This project will be useful as it will aid the planning within the All Blacks camp.

“This coming year, I will be studying a research-based MSc in Statistics. My thesis is in the area of quantitative fisheries science and will involve translating ADMB code into STAN code.

“Statistics appeals to me because of its diversity. For example, one day you could be analysing fisheries data, and the next, data relating to the All Blacks.

“In my spare time I enjoying walks along the beach, sailing and cycling around the waterfront with my wife.”

 

 

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October 28, 2015

Rugby World Cup Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Rugby World Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

Current Rating Rating at RWC Start Difference
New Zealand 28.10 29.01 -0.90
South Africa 23.16 22.73 0.40
Australia 21.25 20.36 0.90
England 16.43 18.51 -2.10
Ireland 15.97 17.48 -1.50
Wales 13.85 13.93 -0.10
Argentina 10.87 7.38 3.50
France 8.96 11.70 -2.70
Scotland 5.94 4.84 1.10
Fiji -2.19 -4.23 2.00
Samoa -4.15 -2.28 -1.90
Italy -6.37 -5.86 -0.50
Tonga -8.84 -6.31 -2.50
Japan -9.10 -11.18 2.10
USA -17.13 -15.97 -1.20
Georgia -17.74 -17.48 -0.30
Canada -17.89 -18.06 0.20
Romania -19.44 -21.20 1.80
Uruguay -31.67 -31.04 -0.60
Namibia -33.29 -35.62 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 84.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 South Africa vs. New Zealand Oct 24 18 – 20 -5.60 TRUE
2 Argentina vs. Australia Oct 25 15 – 29 -9.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 South Africa vs. Argentina Oct 30 South Africa 12.30
2 New Zealand vs. Australia Oct 31 New Zealand 6.80

 

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October 21, 2015

Rugby World Cup Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

Current Rating Rating at RWC Start Difference
New Zealand 28.42 29.01 -0.60
South Africa 22.84 22.73 0.10
Australia 20.85 20.36 0.50
England 16.43 18.51 -2.10
Ireland 15.97 17.48 -1.50
Wales 13.85 13.93 -0.10
Argentina 11.27 7.38 3.90
France 8.96 11.70 -2.70
Scotland 5.94 4.84 1.10
Fiji -2.19 -4.23 2.00
Samoa -4.15 -2.28 -1.90
Italy -6.37 -5.86 -0.50
Tonga -8.84 -6.31 -2.50
Japan -9.10 -11.18 2.10
USA -17.13 -15.97 -1.20
Georgia -17.74 -17.48 -0.30
Canada -17.89 -18.06 0.20
Romania -19.44 -21.20 1.80
Uruguay -31.67 -31.04 -0.60
Namibia -33.29 -35.62 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 84.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 South Africa vs. Wales Oct 17 23 – 19 10.10 TRUE
2 New Zealand vs. France Oct 17 62 – 13 16.60 TRUE
3 Ireland vs. Argentina Oct 18 20 – 43 7.50 FALSE
4 Australia vs. Scotland Oct 18 35 – 34 16.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 South Africa vs. New Zealand Oct 24 New Zealand -5.60
2 Argentina vs. Australia Oct 25 Australia -9.60

 

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ITM Cup Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

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Team Ratings for the ITM Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.66 10.90 2.80
Auckland 11.17 5.14 6.00
Tasman 9.23 12.86 -3.60
Taranaki 8.54 7.70 0.80
Wellington 4.00 -4.62 8.60
Counties Manukau 2.72 7.86 -5.10
Hawke’s Bay 1.77 -0.57 2.30
Otago 0.38 -4.84 5.20
Waikato -4.56 -6.96 2.40
Bay of Plenty -6.01 -9.77 3.80
Manawatu -6.69 -1.52 -5.20
North Harbour -8.60 -10.54 1.90
Southland -10.02 -6.01 -4.00
Northland -19.56 -3.64 -15.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Auckland vs. Tasman Oct 16 44 – 24 2.90 TRUE
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 17 33 – 26 12.80 TRUE
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 17 46 – 20 5.40 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Otago Oct 17 34 – 14 4.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the ITM Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Oct 23 Hawke’s Bay 1.80
2 Canterbury vs. Auckland Oct 24 Canterbury 6.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 5.99 3.04 2.90
Western Province 5.35 4.93 0.40
Blue Bulls 1.71 0.17 1.50
Sharks 1.51 3.43 -1.90
Cheetahs -2.30 -1.75 -0.60
Pumas -6.66 -6.47 -0.20
Griquas -9.36 -7.81 -1.60
Kings -10.14 -9.44 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 16 18 – 23 0.40 FALSE
2 Lions vs. Cheetahs Oct 17 43 – 33 12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Western Province Oct 24 Lions 4.10

 

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October 13, 2015

Rugby World Cup Predictions for the Quarter Finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

Current Rating Rating at RWC Start Difference
New Zealand 26.96 29.01 -2.00
South Africa 23.39 22.73 0.70
Australia 21.66 20.36 1.30
Ireland 17.35 17.48 -0.10
England 16.43 18.51 -2.10
Wales 13.30 13.93 -0.60
France 10.41 11.70 -1.30
Argentina 9.89 7.38 2.50
Scotland 5.13 4.84 0.30
Fiji -2.19 -4.23 2.00
Samoa -4.15 -2.28 -1.90
Italy -6.37 -5.86 -0.50
Tonga -8.84 -6.31 -2.50
Japan -9.10 -11.18 2.10
USA -17.13 -15.97 -1.20
Georgia -17.74 -17.48 -0.30
Canada -17.89 -18.06 0.20
Romania -19.44 -21.20 1.80
Uruguay -31.67 -31.04 -0.60
Namibia -33.29 -35.62 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 New Zealand vs. Tonga Oct 09 47 – 9 35.30 TRUE
2 Samoa vs. Scotland Oct 10 33 – 36 -10.70 TRUE
3 Australia vs. Wales Oct 10 15 – 6 8.20 TRUE
4 England vs. Uruguay Oct 10 60 – 3 54.10 TRUE
5 Argentina vs. Namibia Oct 11 64 – 19 42.80 TRUE
6 Italy vs. Romania Oct 11 32 – 22 13.70 TRUE
7 France vs. Ireland Oct 11 9 – 24 -5.90 TRUE
8 USA vs. Japan Oct 11 18 – 28 -7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 South Africa vs. Wales Oct 17 South Africa 10.10
2 New Zealand vs. France Oct 17 New Zealand 16.60
3 Ireland vs. Argentina Oct 18 Ireland 7.50
4 Australia vs. Scotland Oct 18 Australia 16.50

 

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