NRL Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 11.83 | 14.73 | -2.90 |
| Broncos | 9.30 | 9.07 | 0.20 |
| Storm | 6.85 | 6.15 | 0.70 |
| Roosters | 6.18 | 3.08 | 3.10 |
| Sharks | 6.18 | 2.94 | 3.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 1.88 | -0.48 | 2.40 |
| Cowboys | 0.31 | 2.47 | -2.20 |
| Knights | -0.28 | 1.84 | -2.10 |
| Warriors | -0.83 | -0.07 | -0.80 |
| Dolphins | -3.16 | -7.09 | 3.90 |
| Eels | -3.90 | 0.14 | -4.00 |
| Raiders | -4.49 | -4.31 | -0.20 |
| Rabbitohs | -6.30 | 0.87 | -7.20 |
| Bulldogs | -6.99 | -13.35 | 6.40 |
| Dragons | -8.17 | -6.93 | -1.20 |
| Titans | -9.43 | -7.89 | -1.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -10.99 | -13.15 | 2.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 64 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warriors vs. Titans | Apr 25 | 24 – 27 | 18.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Apr 25 | 18 – 60 | -7.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Storm vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 25 | 54 – 20 | 13.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Eels | Apr 26 | 32 – 18 | 8.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Broncos | Apr 27 | 10 – 34 | -16.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Panthers | Apr 27 | 20 – 26 | -8.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Dolphins vs. Knights | Apr 28 | 14 – 18 | 0.70 | FALSE |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Sharks | Apr 28 | 0 – 40 | -3.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Panthers | May 02 | Panthers | -15.10 |
| 2 | Sea Eagles vs. Raiders | May 03 | Sea Eagles | 9.40 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Roosters | May 03 | Broncos | 6.10 |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers | May 04 | Bulldogs | 7.00 |
| 5 | Titans vs. Storm | May 04 | Storm | -13.30 |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Dolphins | May 04 | Cowboys | 6.50 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Warriors | May 05 | Knights | 7.60 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Dragons | May 05 | Sharks | 17.30 |