Posts filed under Sports statistics (1723)

March 17, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.70 8.77 2.90
Storm 10.40 6.96 3.40
Sharks 7.65 7.25 0.40
Roosters 6.71 9.50 -2.80
Broncos 3.78 7.06 -3.30
Warriors 2.89 -1.18 4.10
Bulldogs 1.26 2.13 -0.90
Raiders -0.03 1.62 -1.60
Dolphins -0.38 1.85 -2.20
Eels -1.33 -0.37 -1.00
Sea Eagles -2.52 0.21 -2.70
Rabbitohs -2.82 -5.05 2.20
Wests Tigers -5.44 -7.26 1.80
Cowboys -5.99 -2.69 -3.30
Dragons -6.94 -6.72 -0.20
Titans -8.70 -8.02 -0.70
Knights -10.24 -14.06 3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Eels Mar 12 32 – 40 11.90 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Mar 13 40 – 6 2.80 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 13 26 – 18 15.10 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Mar 14 44 – 16 0.90 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Storm Mar 14 20 – 46 -11.20 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Sharks Mar 14 26 – 6 6.00 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Mar 15 16 – 36 16.40 FALSE
8 Dolphins vs. Titans Mar 15 18 – 14 13.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Mar 19 Raiders 2.70
2 Roosters vs. Panthers Mar 20 Panthers -1.00
3 Storm vs. Broncos Mar 20 Storm 10.60
4 Knights vs. Warriors Mar 21 Warriors -9.10
5 Sharks vs. Dolphins Mar 21 Sharks 12.00
6 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Mar 21 Rabbitohs 6.60
7 Eels vs. Dragons Mar 22 Eels 9.60
8 Cowboys vs. Titans Mar 22 Cowboys 6.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 31.33 26.06 5.30
Hawthorn Hawks 21.82 22.83 -1.00
Brisbane Lions 20.96 26.20 -5.20
Geelong Cats 20.94 26.75 -5.80
Adelaide Crows 16.92 15.32 1.60
Gold Coast Suns 14.19 10.24 4.00
Collingwood 9.49 11.76 -2.30
Sydney Swans 8.00 0.56 7.40
Fremantle Dockers 7.86 6.56 1.30
GWS Giants 7.76 9.54 -1.80
Melbourne Demons 2.03 1.64 0.40
St Kilda Saints -7.36 -7.63 0.30
Carlton Blues -9.58 -4.77 -4.80
Port Adelaide Power -17.79 -14.65 -3.10
North Melbourne -18.57 -21.71 3.10
Richmond Tigers -28.09 -29.44 1.30
Essendon Bombers -29.11 -27.89 -1.20
West Coast Eagles -38.81 -39.36 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Carlton Blues vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 12 75 – 71 21.20 TRUE
2 Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 13 83 – 145 -48.50 TRUE
3 Western Bulldogs vs. GWS Giants Mar 14 134 – 53 26.60 TRUE
4 Geelong Cats vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 14 110 – 100 26.70 TRUE
5 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 14 104 – 60 -9.90 FALSE
6 Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 14 79 – 93 6.80 FALSE
7 North Melbourne vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 15 113 – 67 3.90 TRUE
8 Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 15 120 – 107 8.60 TRUE
9 Gold Coast Suns vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 15 131 – 72 65.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Sydney Swans Mar 19 Hawthorn Hawks 24.80
2 Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 20 Western Bulldogs -3.40
3 Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 21 Gold Coast Suns -31.30
4 GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 21 GWS Giants 26.10
5 Fremantle Dockers vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 21 Fremantle Dockers 16.80
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 22 Port Adelaide Power 22.30
7 West Coast Eagles vs. North Melbourne Mar 22 North Melbourne -9.20

 

March 10, 2026

AFL Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 27.32 26.06 1.30
Brisbane Lions 24.94 26.20 -1.30
Geelong Cats 22.24 26.75 -4.50
Hawthorn Hawks 20.61 22.83 -2.20
Adelaide Crows 15.32 15.32 0.00
Gold Coast Suns 14.74 10.24 4.50
GWS Giants 11.77 9.54 2.20
Collingwood 11.09 11.76 -0.70
Fremantle Dockers 6.56 6.56 0.00
Sydney Swans 4.02 0.56 3.50
Melbourne Demons 1.64 1.64 0.00
St Kilda Saints -6.96 -7.63 0.70
Carlton Blues -8.23 -4.77 -3.50
Port Adelaide Power -14.65 -14.65 -0.00
North Melbourne -21.71 -21.71 0.00
Essendon Bombers -27.89 -27.89 0.00
Richmond Tigers -29.44 -29.44 -0.00
West Coast Eagles -39.36 -39.36 -0.00

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 40%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues Mar 05 132 – 69 16.30 TRUE
2 Gold Coast Suns vs. Geelong Cats Mar 06 125 – 69 -5.50 FALSE
3 GWS Giants vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 07 122 – 95 -2.30 FALSE
4 Brisbane Lions vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 07 106 – 111 11.10 FALSE
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood Mar 08 66 – 78 -19.40 TRUE

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Carlton Blues vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 12 Carlton Blues 21.20
2 Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 13 Hawthorn Hawks -48.50
3 Western Bulldogs vs. GWS Giants Mar 14 Western Bulldogs 26.60
4 Geelong Cats vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 14 Geelong Cats 26.70
5 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 14 Brisbane Lions -9.90
6 Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 14 Collingwood 6.80
7 North Melbourne vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 15 North Melbourne 3.90
8 Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 15 Melbourne Demons 8.60
9 Gold Coast Suns vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 15 Gold Coast Suns 65.10

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 11.87 12.36 -0.50
Hurricanes 9.44 8.29 1.10
Blues 8.89 8.91 -0.00
Crusaders 7.26 8.41 -1.20
Brumbies 7.04 5.59 1.50
Reds 1.82 1.74 0.10
Highlanders -2.72 -3.06 0.30
Waratahs -5.37 -5.84 0.50
Western Force -6.39 -6.29 -0.10
Fijian Drua -8.18 -7.64 -0.50
Moana Pasifika -9.08 -7.88 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 06 57 – 24 25.20 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Mar 06 19 – 59 -9.10 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Western Force Mar 07 39 – 31 7.00 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 07 29 – 13 5.70 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 07 31 – 34 11.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Western Force Mar 13 Hurricanes 19.30
2 Fijian Drua vs. Brumbies Mar 14 Brumbies -10.20
3 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Mar 14 Crusaders 15.00
4 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 14 Reds 12.20
5 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 15 Blues 23.00

 

NRL Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 10.66 8.77 1.90
Storm 9.31 6.96 2.40
Sharks 8.69 7.25 1.40
Roosters 7.49 9.50 -2.00
Broncos 5.17 7.06 -1.90
Raiders 2.01 1.62 0.40
Bulldogs 1.26 2.13 -0.90
Warriors 0.84 -1.18 2.00
Dolphins 0.39 1.85 -1.50
Sea Eagles -0.18 0.21 -0.40
Eels -2.72 -0.37 -2.30
Rabbitohs -3.60 -5.05 1.50
Cowboys -4.17 -2.69 -1.50
Dragons -5.85 -6.72 0.90
Wests Tigers -7.26 -7.26 -0.00
Titans -9.47 -8.02 -1.50
Knights -12.57 -14.06 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 37.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Cowboys Mar 01 28 – 18 -11.40 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Mar 01 15 – 14 8.80 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Eels Mar 05 52 – 4 11.30 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Roosters Mar 06 42 – 18 -6.70 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Panthers Mar 06 0 – 26 2.30 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 07 50 – 10 19.30 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Mar 07 28 – 29 2.60 FALSE
8 Dolphins vs. Rabbitohs Mar 08 30 – 40 10.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Eels Mar 12 Broncos 11.90
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Mar 13 Warriors 2.80
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 13 Roosters 15.10
4 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Mar 14 Wests Tigers 0.90
5 Dragons vs. Storm Mar 14 Storm -11.20
6 Panthers vs. Sharks Mar 14 Panthers 6.00
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Mar 15 Sea Eagles 16.40
8 Dolphins vs. Titans Mar 15 Dolphins 13.90

 

March 5, 2026

AFL Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 26.75 26.75 0.00
Brisbane Lions 26.20 26.20 0.00
Western Bulldogs 26.06 26.06 0.00
Hawthorn Hawks 22.83 22.83 -0.00
Adelaide Crows 15.32 15.32 0.00
Collingwood 11.76 11.76 0.00
Gold Coast Suns 10.24 10.24 0.00
GWS Giants 9.54 9.54 -0.00
Fremantle Dockers 6.56 6.56 0.00
Melbourne Demons 1.64 1.64 0.00
Sydney Swans 0.56 0.56 0.00
Carlton Blues -4.77 -4.77 -0.00
St Kilda Saints -7.63 -7.63 -0.00
Port Adelaide Power -14.65 -14.65 -0.00
North Melbourne -21.71 -21.71 0.00
Essendon Bombers -27.89 -27.89 0.00
Richmond Tigers -29.44 -29.44 -0.00
West Coast Eagles -39.36 -39.36 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues Mar 05 Sydney Swans 16.30
2 Gold Coast Suns vs. Geelong Cats Mar 06 Geelong Cats -5.50
3 GWS Giants vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 07 Hawthorn Hawks -2.30
4 Brisbane Lions vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 07 Brisbane Lions 11.10
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood Mar 08 Collingwood -19.40

 

March 3, 2026

Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

Not sure how I missed posting this one, but here it is for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.20 11.56 2.60
Bordeaux Begles 5.70 4.78 0.90
Montpellier 4.13 -0.21 4.30
Clermont 3.69 1.88 1.80
Section Paloise 2.97 2.21 0.80
Stade Rochelais 2.19 1.22 1.00
Stade Francais 1.55 -2.17 3.70
Lyon 1.09 -0.45 1.50
Racing 92 0.92 1.88 -1.00
Toulon 0.18 3.49 -3.30
Castres Olympique -0.09 0.59 -0.70
Bayonne -2.01 1.48 -3.50
USA Perpignan -4.63 -3.37 -1.30
Montauban -17.01 -10.00 -7.00

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique Feb 15 57 – 32 11.30 TRUE
2 Bayonne vs. Racing 92 Feb 15 36 – 41 4.30 FALSE
3 Lyon vs. Montauban Feb 15 73 – 12 22.40 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Montpellier Feb 15 33 – 43 5.60 FALSE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Feb 15 40 – 24 -2.30 FALSE
6 Toulon vs. Clermont Feb 15 14 – 34 4.50 FALSE
7 Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 16 9 – 13 -6.40 TRUE

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 01 Castres Olympique 4.20
2 Clermont vs. Bayonne Mar 01 Clermont 12.20
3 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 01 Lyon 7.40
4 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Mar 01 Montpellier 9.70
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Mar 01 Stade Francais 12.70
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Montauban Mar 01 Stade Toulousain 37.70
7 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 02 Section Paloise 3.80
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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

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Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 9.16 13.41 -4.20
Bulls 8.56 8.86 -0.30
Glasgow 7.63 6.18 1.40
Stormers 5.72 4.17 1.60
Munster 1.90 3.65 -1.80
Edinburgh 1.22 2.67 -1.50
Lions 0.76 -1.19 2.00
Ulster 0.61 -3.24 3.80
Sharks -1.06 1.29 -2.30
Connacht -1.19 -1.39 0.20
Scarlets -1.82 -0.54 -1.30
Cardiff Rugby -2.00 -2.74 0.70
Ospreys -2.46 -2.15 -0.30
Benetton -4.94 -2.32 -2.60
Dragons -10.01 -15.66 5.60
Zebre -12.09 -11.02 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Leinster Feb 28 8 – 7 -5.60 FALSE
2 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Feb 28 24 – 19 11.50 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Stormers Mar 01 24 – 10 -5.00 FALSE
4 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 01 41 – 12 9.60 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Glasgow Mar 01 15 – 10 -2.90 FALSE
6 Dragons vs. Benetton Mar 01 15 – 15 2.50 FALSE
7 Munster vs. Zebre Mar 01 21 – 7 22.00 TRUE
8 Ospreys vs. Ulster Mar 01 21 – 10 2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Mar 14 Edinburgh 7.60
2 Connacht vs. Scarlets Mar 14 Connacht 7.60
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 15 Bulls 4.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.79 11.56 3.20
Bordeaux Begles 5.09 4.78 0.30
Montpellier 4.63 -0.21 4.80
Clermont 4.09 1.88 2.20
Section Paloise 3.58 2.21 1.40
Stade Rochelais 2.55 1.22 1.30
Stade Francais 2.05 -2.17 4.20
Lyon 0.64 -0.45 1.10
Toulon 0.63 3.49 -2.90
Racing 92 0.41 1.88 -1.50
Castres Olympique -0.45 0.59 -1.00
Bayonne -2.41 1.48 -3.90
USA Perpignan -5.13 -3.37 -1.80
Montauban -17.59 -10.00 -7.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 01 26 – 31 4.20 FALSE
2 Clermont vs. Bayonne Mar 01 38 – 15 12.20 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 01 13 – 13 7.40 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Mar 01 41 – 17 9.70 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Mar 01 42 – 21 12.70 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Montauban Mar 01 68 – 13 37.70 TRUE
7 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 02 39 – 17 3.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont vs. Montpellier Mar 22 Clermont 6.00
2 Montauban vs. Bayonne Mar 22 Bayonne -8.70
3 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Mar 22 Racing 92 7.40
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise Mar 22 Stade Rochelais 5.50
5 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Mar 22 Toulon 5.10
6 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Mar 22 USA Perpignan 0.70
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 23 Stade Toulousain -3.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 11.51 12.36 -0.80
Blues 8.44 8.91 -0.50
Hurricanes 8.35 8.29 0.10
Crusaders 7.72 8.41 -0.70
Brumbies 7.63 5.59 2.00
Reds 1.23 1.74 -0.50
Highlanders -2.78 -3.06 0.30
Waratahs -4.28 -5.84 1.60
Western Force -6.33 -6.29 -0.00
Fijian Drua -8.18 -7.64 -0.50
Moana Pasifika -8.72 -7.88 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 46.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Western Force Feb 27 19 – 35 2.60 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Feb 27 31 – 14 6.60 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes Feb 28 25 – 20 -14.50 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 28 33 – 43 10.40 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Blues Feb 28 30 – 27 2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 06 Chiefs 25.20
2 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Mar 06 Hurricanes -9.10
3 Highlanders vs. Western Force Mar 07 Highlanders 7.00
4 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 07 Blues 5.70
5 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 07 Brumbies 11.40

 

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