Posts filed under Sports statistics (1803)

July 28, 2026

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 10.29 10.29 -0.00
Bay of Plenty 9.80 9.80 -0.00
Taranaki 7.57 7.57 0.00
Otago 5.80 5.80 -0.00
Hawke’s Bay 5.18 5.18 -0.00
Counties Manukau 3.63 3.63 0.00
Wellington 2.70 2.70 -0.00
Tasman 0.68 0.68 0.00
Waikato -0.83 -0.83 -0.00
Auckland -2.64 -2.64 -0.00
North Harbour -4.18 -4.18 -0.00
Northland -5.96 -5.96 -0.00
Southland -10.83 -10.83 0.00
Manawatu -15.05 -15.05 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Jul 30 Bay of Plenty -7.60
2 Tasman vs. North Harbour Jul 31 Tasman 7.90
3 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Aug 01 Taranaki -0.90
4 Southland vs. Otago Aug 01 Otago -13.60
5 Canterbury vs. Auckland Aug 01 Canterbury 15.90
6 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 02 Northland 12.10
7 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 02 Wellington 0.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 14.36 14.61 -0.30
Griquas 9.45 9.78 -0.30
Pumas 3.82 5.36 -1.50
Cheetahs -0.55 -2.42 1.90
Boland Cavaliers -1.96 -4.25 2.30
Bulls -3.91 -2.24 -1.70
Sharks -4.73 -4.65 -0.10
Stormers -10.29 -10.00 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Jul 25 43 – 21 5.30 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Pumas Jul 26 52 – 29 12.20 TRUE
3 Griquas vs. Bulls Jul 26 56 – 26 14.60 TRUE
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Stormers Jul 27 41 – 3 8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 01 Griquas 13.00
2 Stormers vs. Sharks Aug 02 Sharks -2.60
3 Lions vs. Bulls Aug 02 Lions 21.30
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Pumas Aug 03 Pumas -2.80

 

AFL Predictions for Week 22

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Team Ratings for Week 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Fremantle Dockers 27.23 6.56 20.70
Geelong Cats 23.72 26.75 -3.00
Hawthorn Hawks 21.37 22.83 -1.50
Brisbane Lions 20.83 26.20 -5.40
Sydney Swans 17.88 0.56 17.30
Adelaide Crows 13.86 15.32 -1.50
Collingwood 9.42 11.76 -2.30
Melbourne Demons 6.34 1.64 4.70
Western Bulldogs 5.95 26.06 -20.10
St Kilda Saints 2.81 -7.63 10.40
GWS Giants 1.48 9.54 -8.10
Gold Coast Suns -4.38 10.24 -14.60
Carlton Blues -5.71 -4.77 -0.90
Port Adelaide Power -7.92 -14.65 6.70
North Melbourne -15.57 -21.71 6.10
West Coast Eagles -30.29 -39.36 9.10
Essendon Bombers -36.62 -27.89 -8.70
Richmond Tigers -38.39 -29.44 -9.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 171 matches played, 123 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Jul 23 74 – 108 24.00 FALSE
2 Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Jul 24 97 – 117 -3.80 TRUE
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 24 112 – 42 55.20 TRUE
4 Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 25 110 – 97 8.90 TRUE
5 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 25 132 – 39 51.80 TRUE
6 GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans Jul 25 88 – 139 2.50 FALSE
7 Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 25 105 – 48 42.00 TRUE
8 Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 26 126 – 67 36.20 TRUE
9 North Melbourne vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 26 62 – 93 -16.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 22

Here are the predictions for Week 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Collingwood vs. Geelong Cats Jul 30 Geelong Cats -3.30
2 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 31 Fremantle Dockers 32.30
3 St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans Aug 01 Sydney Swans -4.10
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Aug 01 Hawthorn Hawks 36.90
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. GWS Giants Aug 01 Port Adelaide Power 1.60
6 Carlton Blues vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 01 Brisbane Lions -15.50
7 Richmond Tigers vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 02 Richmond Tigers 2.90
8 Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 02 Gold Coast Suns 0.30
9 Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 02 Adelaide Crows -39.50

 

July 21, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.57 8.77 2.80
Sharks 9.14 7.25 1.90
Warriors 7.11 -1.18 8.30
Roosters 6.04 9.50 -3.50
Dolphins 4.45 1.85 2.60
Sea Eagles 3.20 0.21 3.00
Storm 0.57 6.96 -6.40
Rabbitohs 0.16 -5.05 5.20
Cowboys -0.96 -2.69 1.70
Raiders -1.85 1.62 -3.50
Knights -2.09 -14.06 12.00
Bulldogs -3.00 2.13 -5.10
Broncos -3.23 7.06 -10.30
Titans -4.74 -8.02 3.30
Eels -5.94 -0.37 -5.60
Dragons -9.39 -6.72 -2.70
Wests Tigers -11.05 -7.26 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Broncos Jul 16 12 – 14 22.10 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Knights Jul 17 20 – 18 17.50 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 17 14 – 6 9.90 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jul 18 34 – 24 0.50 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Dragons Jul 18 20 – 12 22.70 TRUE
6 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 18 32 – 0 8.90 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jul 19 38 – 32 -5.70 FALSE
8 Dolphins vs. Cowboys Jul 19 36 – 16 7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Panthers Jul 23 Panthers -17.50
2 Knights vs. Roosters Jul 24 Roosters -4.10
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Jul 24 Rabbitohs 3.60
4 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Jul 25 Raiders 13.20
5 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Jul 25 Warriors -6.10
6 Cowboys vs. Broncos Jul 25 Cowboys 6.30
7 Dragons vs. Titans Jul 26 Titans -0.60
8 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Jul 26 Sharks -1.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 13.69 14.61 -0.90
Griquas 8.56 9.78 -1.20
Pumas 4.49 5.36 -0.90
Cheetahs -1.50 -2.42 0.90
Bulls -3.01 -2.24 -0.80
Boland Cavaliers -3.47 -4.25 0.80
Sharks -3.78 -4.65 0.90
Stormers -8.78 -10.00 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 4 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 25%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Sharks Jul 18 24 – 26 13.00 FALSE
2 Stormers vs. Griquas Jul 18 25 – 19 -16.80 FALSE
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Jul 19 29 – 27 -14.00 FALSE
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Bulls Jul 20 24 – 10 1.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Jul 25 Cheetahs 5.30
2 Lions vs. Pumas Jul 26 Lions 12.20
3 Griquas vs. Bulls Jul 26 Griquas 14.60
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Stormers Jul 27 Boland Cavaliers 8.30

 

AFL Predictions for Week 21

By

Team Ratings for Week 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Fremantle Dockers 26.06 6.56 19.50
Geelong Cats 22.46 26.75 -4.30
Brisbane Lions 19.08 26.20 -7.10
Hawthorn Hawks 18.29 22.83 -4.50
Adelaide Crows 18.12 15.32 2.80
Sydney Swans 13.93 0.56 13.40
Melbourne Demons 7.61 1.64 6.00
GWS Giants 5.43 9.54 -4.10
Collingwood 5.16 11.76 -6.60
Western Bulldogs 4.77 26.06 -21.30
St Kilda Saints 1.63 -7.63 9.30
Gold Coast Suns -4.02 10.24 -14.30
Carlton Blues -6.08 -4.77 -1.30
Port Adelaide Power -6.17 -14.65 8.50
North Melbourne -14.40 -21.71 7.30
West Coast Eagles -29.12 -39.36 10.20
Essendon Bombers -33.55 -27.89 -5.70
Richmond Tigers -37.21 -29.44 -7.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 162 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 16 102 – 75 32.90 TRUE
2 Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 17 71 – 87 10.90 FALSE
3 Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 18 75 – 103 -19.70 TRUE
4 North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons Jul 18 76 – 92 -23.30 TRUE
5 Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues Jul 18 90 – 69 9.10 TRUE
6 West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 18 69 – 93 -39.70 TRUE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 19 52 – 122 -52.80 TRUE
8 Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 19 68 – 77 4.70 FALSE
9 Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants Jul 19 67 – 64 -33.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 21

Here are the predictions for Week 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Jul 23 Adelaide Crows 24.00
2 Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Jul 24 Geelong Cats -3.80
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 24 Fremantle Dockers 55.20
4 Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 25 Carlton Blues 8.90
5 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 25 Hawthorn Hawks 51.80
6 GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans Jul 25 GWS Giants 2.50
7 Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 25 Western Bulldogs 42.00
8 Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 26 Brisbane Lions 36.20
9 North Melbourne vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 26 St Kilda Saints -16.00

 

July 14, 2026

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 14.61 14.61 -0.00
Griquas 9.78 9.78 0.00
Pumas 5.36 5.36 -0.00
Bulls -2.24 -2.24 -0.00
Cheetahs -2.42 -2.42 0.00
Boland Cavaliers -4.25 -4.25 -0.00
Sharks -4.65 -4.65 0.00
Stormers -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Sharks Jul 18 Pumas 13.00
2 Stormers vs. Griquas Jul 18 Griquas -16.80
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Jul 19 Lions -14.00
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Bulls Jul 20 Boland Cavaliers 1.00

 

NRL Predictions for Round 20

By

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.21 8.77 4.40
Sharks 10.27 7.25 3.00
Warriors 8.19 -1.18 9.40
Roosters 6.25 9.50 -3.30
Sea Eagles 4.09 0.21 3.90
Dolphins 3.51 1.85 1.70
Rabbitohs 0.90 -5.05 6.00
Storm 0.37 6.96 -6.60
Cowboys -0.02 -2.69 2.70
Raiders -2.59 1.62 -4.20
Knights -3.22 -14.06 10.80
Bulldogs -4.59 2.13 -6.70
Broncos -4.88 7.06 -11.90
Titans -5.63 -8.02 2.40
Eels -5.94 -0.37 -5.60
Wests Tigers -9.46 -7.26 -2.20
Dragons -10.46 -6.72 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 140 matches played, 89 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 10 6 – 32 -11.50 TRUE
2 Dolphins vs. Sharks Jul 11 0 – 66 5.50 FALSE
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Jul 11 16 – 40 6.00 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Eels Jul 11 28 – 12 16.20 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 12 26 – 24 9.90 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 12 18 – 19 9.80 FALSE
7 Storm vs. Titans Jul 12 22 – 18 11.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Broncos Jul 16 Panthers 22.10
2 Sharks vs. Knights Jul 17 Sharks 17.50
3 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 17 Roosters 9.90
4 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jul 18 Raiders 0.50
5 Warriors vs. Dragons Jul 18 Warriors 22.70
6 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 18 Bulldogs 8.90
7 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jul 19 Sea Eagles -5.70
8 Dolphins vs. Cowboys Jul 19 Dolphins 7.50

 

AFL Predictions for Week 20

By

Team Ratings for Week 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Fremantle Dockers 25.32 6.56 18.80
Geelong Cats 22.98 26.75 -3.80
Brisbane Lions 20.31 26.20 -5.90
Hawthorn Hawks 16.95 22.83 -5.90
Adelaide Crows 16.07 15.32 0.80
Sydney Swans 15.99 0.56 15.40
Melbourne Demons 8.27 1.64 6.60
GWS Giants 8.17 9.54 -1.40
Collingwood 4.09 11.76 -7.70
Western Bulldogs 3.54 26.06 -22.50
St Kilda Saints 1.11 -7.63 8.70
Gold Coast Suns -2.79 10.24 -13.00
Carlton Blues -5.01 -4.77 -0.20
Port Adelaide Power -5.43 -14.65 9.20
North Melbourne -15.06 -21.71 6.70
West Coast Eagles -30.35 -39.36 9.00
Richmond Tigers -35.87 -29.44 -6.40
Essendon Bombers -36.29 -27.89 -8.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 153 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans Jul 09 111 – 73 17.10 TRUE
2 Collingwood vs. North Melbourne Jul 10 89 – 85 21.90 TRUE
3 St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 11 87 – 73 18.30 TRUE
4 GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats Jul 11 86 – 73 -6.90 FALSE
5 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 11 39 – 103 -14.60 TRUE
6 Adelaide Crows vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 11 128 – 49 21.40 TRUE
7 Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 12 86 – 70 50.00 TRUE
8 Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 12 111 – 65 43.70 TRUE
9 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 12 149 – 59 63.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 20

Here are the predictions for Week 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 16 Geelong Cats 32.90
2 Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 17 Sydney Swans 10.90
3 Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 18 Fremantle Dockers -19.70
4 North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons Jul 18 Melbourne Demons -23.30
5 Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues Jul 18 Collingwood 9.10
6 West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 18 Brisbane Lions -39.70
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 19 Hawthorn Hawks -52.80
8 Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 19 Gold Coast Suns 4.70
9 Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants Jul 19 GWS Giants -33.50

 

July 7, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.21 8.77 4.40
Dolphins 7.66 1.85 5.80
Warriors 7.12 -1.18 8.30
Roosters 6.27 9.50 -3.20
Sharks 6.13 7.25 -1.10
Sea Eagles 4.92 0.21 4.70
Rabbitohs 1.77 -5.05 6.80
Storm 1.21 6.96 -5.70
Cowboys -0.85 -2.69 1.80
Bulldogs -2.61 2.13 -4.70
Knights -4.09 -14.06 10.00
Raiders -4.57 1.62 -6.20
Broncos -4.88 7.06 -11.90
Eels -5.97 -0.37 -5.60
Titans -6.47 -8.02 1.50
Wests Tigers -8.39 -7.26 -1.10
Dragons -10.46 -6.72 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 03 36 – 14 13.60 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 04 24 – 10 -0.20 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 04 16 – 28 -5.60 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Jul 05 23 – 14 -9.50 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Dolphins Jul 05 13 – 12 -9.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 10 Warriors -11.50
2 Dolphins vs. Sharks Jul 11 Dolphins 5.50
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Jul 11 Bulldogs 6.00
4 Roosters vs. Eels Jul 11 Roosters 16.20
5 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 12 Rabbitohs 9.90
6 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 12 Sea Eagles 9.80
7 Storm vs. Titans Jul 12 Storm 11.70

 

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