Posts filed under Sports statistics (1803)

June 9, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.59 13.41 -1.80
Bulls 11.21 8.86 2.30
Stormers 7.05 4.17 2.90
Glasgow 6.24 6.18 0.10
Connacht 2.73 -1.39 4.10
Sharks 2.15 1.29 0.90
Munster 1.65 3.65 -2.00
Lions 1.53 -1.19 2.70
Ulster -0.38 -3.24 2.90
Cardiff Rugby -2.27 -2.74 0.50
Edinburgh -3.43 2.67 -6.10
Scarlets -3.61 -0.54 -3.10
Ospreys -3.70 -2.15 -1.60
Benetton -6.97 -2.32 -4.70
Dragons -9.62 -15.66 6.00
Zebre -14.18 -11.02 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Bulls Jun 07 21 – 22 2.90 FALSE
2 Leinster vs. Stormers Jun 07 20 – 11 12.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Bulls Jun 20 Leinster 7.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.50 11.56 0.90
Montpellier 6.13 -0.21 6.30
Stade Rochelais 5.89 1.22 4.70
Stade Francais 5.16 -2.17 7.30
Section Paloise 4.42 2.21 2.20
Racing 92 4.27 1.88 2.40
Bordeaux Begles 4.05 4.78 -0.70
Clermont 3.53 1.88 1.60
Lyon -0.72 -0.45 -0.30
Toulon -0.73 3.49 -4.20
Castres Olympique -0.74 0.59 -1.30
Bayonne -1.91 1.48 -3.40
USA Perpignan -5.85 -3.37 -2.50
Montauban -23.12 -10.00 -13.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 182 matches played, 141 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan Jun 07 52 – 7 8.30 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Jun 07 31 – 34 7.80 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Jun 07 38 – 21 5.70 TRUE
4 Lyon vs. Montpellier Jun 07 25 – 28 0.00 FALSE
5 Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 07 31 – 20 -2.70 FALSE
6 Section Paloise vs. Montauban Jun 07 71 – 35 33.80 TRUE
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais Jun 07 27 – 22 7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Jun 14 Section Paloise 6.70
2 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 15 Stade Francais 5.80

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 13.88 8.29 5.60
Chiefs 13.38 12.36 1.00
Crusaders 10.11 8.41 1.70
Blues 6.27 8.91 -2.60
Brumbies 1.90 5.59 -3.70
Reds 0.41 1.74 -1.30
Highlanders -3.16 -3.06 -0.10
Western Force -3.89 -6.29 2.40
Waratahs -4.57 -5.84 1.30
Fijian Drua -7.96 -7.64 -0.30
Moana Pasifika -11.80 -7.88 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Jun 05 66 – 12 12.70 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Blues Jun 06 52 – 31 7.70 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 06 46 – 24 15.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jun 12 Chiefs 8.30
2 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jun 13 Hurricanes 12.60

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 10.81 5.55 5.30
Bath 10.78 10.30 0.50
Saracens 8.02 5.03 3.00
Northampton Saints 7.05 -1.47 8.50
Exeter Chiefs 6.43 -4.58 11.00
Bristol -0.13 3.66 -3.80
Sale Sharks -2.09 6.70 -8.80
Gloucester -3.20 4.13 -7.30
Harlequins -3.75 -3.02 -0.70
Newcastle Red Bulls -26.06 -18.45 -7.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 07 24 – 22 8.20 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Jun 07 32 – 12 2.80 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Jun 07 54 – 21 29.10 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Jun 07 38 – 31 -5.80 FALSE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jun 07 38 – 17 2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 13 Northampton Saints 3.20
2 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 14 Bath 11.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 15.41 8.77 6.60
Roosters 7.40 9.50 -2.10
Warriors 6.75 -1.18 7.90
Dolphins 6.45 1.85 4.60
Sharks 5.85 7.25 -1.40
Sea Eagles 5.68 0.21 5.50
Storm 1.61 6.96 -5.30
Rabbitohs -0.86 -5.05 4.20
Broncos -1.87 7.06 -8.90
Cowboys -1.98 -2.69 0.70
Raiders -2.90 1.62 -4.50
Knights -4.00 -14.06 10.10
Bulldogs -4.91 2.13 -7.00
Titans -5.65 -8.02 2.40
Eels -6.37 -0.37 -6.00
Wests Tigers -7.86 -7.26 -0.60
Dragons -12.76 -6.72 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Jun 04 28 – 14 9.60 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Knights Jun 05 32 – 30 11.00 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Roosters Jun 05 0 – 26 -3.20 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Jun 06 14 – 40 -1.00 TRUE
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 06 23 – 28 10.00 FALSE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 07 0 – 68 -21.50 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 07 34 – 12 22.80 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 08 14 – 12 6.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jun 11 Rabbitohs 5.00
2 Dolphins vs. Roosters Jun 12 Dolphins 3.00
3 Warriors vs. Sharks Jun 13 Warriors 4.90
4 Eels vs. Raiders Jun 13 Eels 0.50
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 14 Wests Tigers 1.80

 

AFL Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 26.87 26.75 0.10
Fremantle Dockers 24.45 6.56 17.90
Sydney Swans 20.77 0.56 20.20
Hawthorn Hawks 17.69 22.83 -5.10
Brisbane Lions 13.37 26.20 -12.80
Adelaide Crows 12.58 15.32 -2.70
Western Bulldogs 10.87 26.06 -15.20
GWS Giants 6.61 9.54 -2.90
Gold Coast Suns 6.55 10.24 -3.70
Collingwood 5.12 11.76 -6.60
Melbourne Demons 1.75 1.64 0.10
St Kilda Saints -0.38 -7.63 7.20
Carlton Blues -2.41 -4.77 2.40
Port Adelaide Power -10.85 -14.65 3.80
North Melbourne -18.19 -21.71 3.50
Essendon Bombers -28.81 -27.89 -0.90
West Coast Eagles -33.44 -39.36 5.90
Richmond Tigers -40.56 -29.44 -11.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats Jun 04 75 – 74 -4.20 FALSE
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 05 71 – 77 9.20 FALSE
3 North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 06 31 – 155 -41.80 TRUE
4 Gold Coast Suns vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 06 75 – 106 3.40 FALSE
5 West Coast Eagles vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 06 71 – 77 -12.80 TRUE
6 Sydney Swans vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 07 104 – 102 37.50 TRUE
7 Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues Jun 07 67 – 72 -30.30 TRUE
8 Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 08 75 – 83 5.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 11 Western Bulldogs 9.30
2 Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 12 Geelong Cats 31.30
3 Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 13 Melbourne Demons 30.60
4 North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 13 North Melbourne 4.30
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Jun 13 Sydney Swans -20.60
6 Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 14 Brisbane Lions -53.90
7 St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants Jun 14 St Kilda Saints 4.00

 

June 2, 2026

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 11.40 10.30 1.10
Leicester Tigers 10.19 5.55 4.60
Saracens 9.32 5.03 4.30
Northampton Saints 8.04 -1.47 9.50
Exeter Chiefs 5.14 -4.58 9.70
Bristol 1.26 3.66 -2.40
Sale Sharks -3.49 6.70 -10.20
Gloucester -3.60 4.13 -7.70
Harlequins -4.74 -3.02 -1.70
Newcastle Red Bulls -25.66 -18.45 -7.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Bath May 30 21 – 19 -4.40 FALSE
2 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Sale Sharks May 31 45 – 42 -18.30 FALSE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 31 36 – 32 21.20 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins May 31 26 – 12 22.40 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 01 26 – 35 15.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 07 Bath 8.20
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Jun 07 Exeter Chiefs 2.80
3 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Jun 07 Gloucester 29.10
4 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Jun 07 Northampton Saints -5.80
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jun 07 Sale Sharks 2.20

 

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.94 13.41 -1.50
Bulls 10.79 8.86 1.90
Stormers 6.70 4.17 2.50
Glasgow 6.67 6.18 0.50
Connacht 2.73 -1.39 4.10
Sharks 2.15 1.29 0.90
Munster 1.65 3.65 -2.00
Lions 1.53 -1.19 2.70
Ulster -0.38 -3.24 2.90
Cardiff Rugby -2.27 -2.74 0.50
Edinburgh -3.43 2.67 -6.10
Scarlets -3.61 -0.54 -3.10
Ospreys -3.70 -2.15 -1.60
Benetton -6.97 -2.32 -4.70
Dragons -9.62 -15.66 6.00
Zebre -14.18 -11.02 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Connacht May 30 33 – 21 10.60 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Munster May 30 45 – 14 14.30 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Cardiff Rugby May 31 44 – 21 14.90 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Lions May 31 59 – 10 14.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Bulls Jun 07 Glasgow 2.90
2 Leinster vs. Stormers Jun 07 Leinster 12.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Quarter-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 13.08 12.36 0.70
Hurricanes 12.51 8.29 4.20
Crusaders 9.56 8.41 1.10
Blues 6.82 8.91 -2.10
Brumbies 3.28 5.59 -2.30
Reds 0.71 1.74 -1.00
Highlanders -3.16 -3.06 -0.10
Western Force -3.89 -6.29 2.40
Waratahs -4.57 -5.84 1.30
Fijian Drua -7.96 -7.64 -0.30
Moana Pasifika -11.80 -7.88 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes May 29 47 – 14 -0.30 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Fijian Drua May 29 45 – 24 12.90 TRUE
3 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika May 30 19 – 21 20.20 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Blues May 30 59 – 34 10.00 TRUE
5 Western Force vs. Waratahs May 30 31 – 25 5.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Jun 05 Hurricanes 12.70
2 Crusaders vs. Blues Jun 06 Crusaders 7.70
3 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 06 Chiefs 15.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.54 8.77 3.80
Warriors 6.75 -1.18 7.90
Sharks 5.94 7.25 -1.30
Roosters 5.83 9.50 -3.70
Sea Eagles 5.19 0.21 5.00
Dolphins 4.75 1.85 2.90
Storm 2.33 6.96 -4.60
Cowboys -0.29 -2.69 2.40
Rabbitohs -0.37 -5.05 4.70
Broncos -0.77 7.06 -7.80
Raiders -1.33 1.62 -2.90
Bulldogs -4.42 2.13 -6.50
Knights -4.71 -14.06 9.30
Wests Tigers -4.98 -7.26 2.30
Titans -6.75 -8.02 1.30
Eels -6.86 -0.37 -6.50
Dragons -12.84 -6.72 -6.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 29 28 – 22 4.40 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Eels May 30 28 – 22 6.20 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 30 22 – 16 2.70 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Roosters May 30 18 – 4 -1.80 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Dragons May 31 26 – 30 19.30 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Cowboys May 31 26 – 12 1.00 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Warriors May 31 20 – 18 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Jun 04 Sea Eagles 9.60
2 Storm vs. Knights Jun 05 Storm 11.00
3 Raiders vs. Roosters Jun 05 Roosters -3.20
4 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Jun 06 Dolphins -1.00
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 06 Broncos 10.00
6 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 07 Panthers -21.50
7 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 07 Sharks 22.80
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 08 Bulldogs 6.40

 

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