AFL Predictions for Week 8
Team Ratings for Week 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 25.06 | 26.75 | -1.70 |
| Brisbane Lions | 22.02 | 26.20 | -4.20 |
| Western Bulldogs | 20.59 | 26.06 | -5.50 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 20.25 | 22.83 | -2.60 |
| Sydney Swans | 19.33 | 0.56 | 18.80 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 12.95 | 6.56 | 6.40 |
| Adelaide Crows | 12.56 | 15.32 | -2.80 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 9.73 | 10.24 | -0.50 |
| Collingwood | 7.16 | 11.76 | -4.60 |
| GWS Giants | 4.07 | 9.54 | -5.50 |
| Melbourne Demons | -1.46 | 1.64 | -3.10 |
| St Kilda Saints | -2.87 | -7.63 | 4.80 |
| Carlton Blues | -10.18 | -4.77 | -5.40 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -12.27 | -14.65 | 2.40 |
| North Melbourne | -13.45 | -21.71 | 8.30 |
| Essendon Bombers | -21.38 | -27.89 | 6.50 |
| Richmond Tigers | -40.01 | -29.44 | -10.60 |
| West Coast Eagles | -40.10 | -39.36 | -0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood | Apr 16 | 83 – 88 | -19.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. Western Bulldogs | Apr 17 | 131 – 56 | 5.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants | Apr 17 | 107 – 66 | 23.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 18 | 119 – 110 | 48.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Port Adelaide Power | Apr 18 | 89 – 86 | 50.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints | Apr 18 | 103 – 102 | 31.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | North Melbourne vs. Richmond Tigers | Apr 19 | 130 – 55 | 18.20 | TRUE |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. Brisbane Lions | Apr 19 | 104 – 102 | -15.20 | FALSE |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 19 | 41 – 97 | -52.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 8
Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 23 | Western Bulldogs | 12.30 |
| 2 | Richmond Tigers vs. Melbourne Demons | Apr 24 | Melbourne Demons | -33.60 |
| 3 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Gold Coast Suns | Apr 25 | Hawthorn Hawks | 21.50 |
| 4 | Essendon Bombers vs. Collingwood | Apr 25 | Collingwood | -23.50 |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 25 | Geelong Cats | -26.30 |
| 6 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 25 | Fremantle Dockers | 34.10 |
| 7 | St Kilda Saints vs. West Coast Eagles | Apr 26 | St Kilda Saints | 48.20 |
| 8 | Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows | Apr 26 | Brisbane Lions | 20.50 |
| 9 | GWS Giants vs. North Melbourne | Apr 26 | GWS Giants | 28.50 |