Posts filed under Sports statistics (1768)

April 7, 2026

AFL Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 29.31 26.06 3.30
Brisbane Lions 24.75 26.20 -1.40
Geelong Cats 21.26 26.75 -5.50
Hawthorn Hawks 20.14 22.83 -2.70
Adelaide Crows 15.84 15.32 0.50
Sydney Swans 15.59 0.56 15.00
Gold Coast Suns 15.03 10.24 4.80
Fremantle Dockers 12.44 6.56 5.90
Collingwood 8.50 11.76 -3.30
GWS Giants 4.07 9.54 -5.50
Melbourne Demons 2.83 1.64 1.20
St Kilda Saints -6.47 -7.63 1.20
Carlton Blues -12.34 -4.77 -7.60
Port Adelaide Power -14.48 -14.65 0.20
North Melbourne -19.01 -21.71 2.70
Essendon Bombers -29.93 -27.89 -2.00
Richmond Tigers -34.48 -29.44 -5.00
West Coast Eagles -41.05 -39.36 -1.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood Apr 02 119 – 65 22.50 TRUE
2 North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues Apr 03 96 – 86 -9.70 FALSE
3 Adelaide Crows vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 03 76 – 78 17.40 FALSE
4 Richmond Tigers vs. Port Adelaide Power Apr 04 48 – 90 -3.20 TRUE
5 West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans Apr 04 35 – 163 -31.90 TRUE
6 Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 05 109 – 89 -5.00 FALSE
7 Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 05 99 – 65 63.80 TRUE
8 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Geelong Cats Apr 06 92 – 91 11.80 TRUE

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Carlton Blues Apr 09 Adelaide Crows 39.20
2 Collingwood vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 10 Fremantle Dockers -3.90
3 North Melbourne vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 11 Brisbane Lions -43.80
4 Essendon Bombers vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 11 Melbourne Demons -32.80
5 Sydney Swans vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 11 Sydney Swans 0.60
6 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 11 Western Bulldogs -9.20
7 Geelong Cats vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 12 Geelong Cats 62.30
8 GWS Giants vs. Richmond Tigers Apr 12 GWS Giants 38.50
9 Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 12 Port Adelaide Power 3.00

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9

By

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 11.58 12.36 -0.80
Hurricanes 11.16 8.29 2.90
Blues 9.86 8.91 1.00
Crusaders 8.62 8.41 0.20
Brumbies 5.86 5.59 0.30
Reds -0.04 1.74 -1.80
Highlanders -3.03 -3.06 0.00
Western Force -4.50 -6.29 1.80
Waratahs -5.05 -5.84 0.80
Fijian Drua -8.84 -7.64 -1.20
Moana Pasifika -11.03 -7.88 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Fijian Drua Apr 03 69 – 26 19.20 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Apr 04 42 – 14 19.30 TRUE
3 Reds vs. Western Force Apr 04 19 – 42 11.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 10 Brumbies -5.40
2 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs Apr 11 Chiefs -17.60
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force Apr 11 Fijian Drua 0.70
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Apr 11 Hurricanes 6.30
5 Reds vs. Crusaders Apr 11 Crusaders -5.20

 

March 31, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Glasgow 8.61 6.18 2.40
Leinster 8.25 13.41 -5.20
Bulls 7.78 8.86 -1.10
Stormers 6.32 4.17 2.20
Lions 1.89 -1.19 3.10
Ulster 1.87 -3.24 5.10
Munster 0.85 3.65 -2.80
Sharks 0.22 1.29 -1.10
Connacht -0.25 -1.39 1.10
Edinburgh -2.03 2.67 -4.70
Scarlets -2.10 -0.54 -1.60
Cardiff Rugby -2.39 -2.74 0.30
Ospreys -2.62 -2.15 -0.50
Benetton -4.56 -2.32 -2.20
Dragons -8.89 -15.66 6.80
Zebre -12.93 -11.02 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 28 21 – 15 10.60 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Benetton Mar 28 31 – 10 19.90 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Scarlets Mar 28 36 – 19 17.40 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Munster Mar 29 34 – 31 15.40 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Ospreys Mar 29 21 – 14 10.00 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Dragons Mar 29 42 – 26 18.30 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Mar 29 33 – 14 14.30 TRUE
8 Zebre vs. Ulster Mar 29 12 – 28 -6.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Bulls Apr 18 Bulls -9.70
2 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Apr 18 Edinburgh 17.90
3 Ulster vs. Leinster Apr 18 Leinster -4.40
4 Stormers vs. Connacht Apr 18 Stormers 13.60
5 Lions vs. Glasgow Apr 19 Lions 0.30
6 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 19 Scarlets 2.30
7 Benetton vs. Munster Apr 19 Benetton 1.60
8 Ospreys vs. Sharks Apr 19 Ospreys 4.20

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 21

By

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 13.99 11.56 2.40
Bordeaux Begles 6.26 4.78 1.50
Montpellier 5.13 -0.21 5.30
Stade Francais 3.92 -2.17 6.10
Section Paloise 3.16 2.21 1.00
Stade Rochelais 2.71 1.22 1.50
Clermont 2.45 1.88 0.60
Racing 92 1.07 1.88 -0.80
Lyon 0.60 -0.45 1.00
Toulon -0.65 3.49 -4.10
Castres Olympique -0.70 0.59 -1.30
Bayonne -1.26 1.48 -2.70
USA Perpignan -4.89 -3.37 -1.50
Montauban -18.89 -10.00 -8.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 140 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 29 26 – 15 1.80 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Montauban Mar 29 49 – 17 23.70 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 29 17 – 21 1.50 FALSE
4 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Mar 29 27 – 17 8.40 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Mar 29 45 – 29 15.30 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Mar 29 36 – 20 1.20 TRUE
7 Stade Francais vs. Clermont Mar 30 64 – 20 5.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Section Paloise Apr 19 Bayonne 2.10
2 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 19 Stade Toulousain -8.20
3 Clermont vs. Lyon Apr 19 Clermont 8.40
4 Montauban vs. Toulon Apr 19 Toulon -11.70
5 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Apr 19 Montpellier 16.50
6 Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais Apr 19 Racing 92 3.60
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 19 Stade Rochelais 2.90

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

By

Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 11.18 12.36 -1.20
Hurricanes 11.16 8.29 2.90
Blues 9.86 8.91 1.00
Crusaders 7.74 8.41 -0.70
Brumbies 5.86 5.59 0.30
Reds 1.16 1.74 -0.60
Highlanders -3.03 -3.06 0.00
Waratahs -4.66 -5.84 1.20
Western Force -5.70 -6.29 0.60
Fijian Drua -7.95 -7.64 -0.30
Moana Pasifika -11.03 -7.88 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders Mar 27 19 – 39 -1.60 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 27 28 – 30 17.00 FALSE
3 Hurricanes vs. Reds Mar 28 52 – 14 11.60 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Mar 28 40 – 15 20.90 TRUE
5 Western Force vs. Chiefs Mar 28 14 – 24 -13.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Fijian Drua Apr 03 Crusaders 19.20
2 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Apr 04 Chiefs 19.30
3 Reds vs. Western Force Apr 04 Reds 11.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 12.73 10.30 2.40
Leicester Tigers 8.25 5.55 2.70
Northampton Saints 5.59 -1.47 7.10
Saracens 4.85 5.03 -0.20
Exeter Chiefs 4.74 -4.58 9.30
Bristol 2.50 3.66 -1.20
Sale Sharks 2.36 6.70 -4.30
Gloucester -4.56 4.13 -8.70
Harlequins -8.80 -3.02 -5.80
Newcastle Red Bulls -19.80 -18.45 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 29 17 – 36 -3.40 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 29 14 – 18 22.10 FALSE
3 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 29 14 – 38 -16.30 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Mar 29 26 – 31 -3.00 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Mar 29 17 – 21 8.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Gloucester Apr 18 Bristol 14.10
2 Bath vs. Harlequins Apr 19 Bath 28.50
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Apr 19 Exeter Chiefs 6.20
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Apr 19 Leicester Tigers 35.10
5 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Apr 20 Sale Sharks 4.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.91 8.77 6.10
Storm 8.25 6.96 1.30
Sharks 5.91 7.25 -1.30
Broncos 5.65 7.06 -1.40
Roosters 5.49 9.50 -4.00
Warriors 2.05 -1.18 3.20
Dolphins 1.35 1.85 -0.50
Bulldogs 0.28 2.13 -1.80
Raiders -1.56 1.62 -3.20
Eels -2.24 -0.37 -1.90
Wests Tigers -3.10 -7.26 4.20
Rabbitohs -3.11 -5.05 1.90
Sea Eagles -3.56 0.21 -3.80
Cowboys -4.12 -2.69 -1.40
Dragons -7.70 -6.72 -1.00
Titans -8.78 -8.02 -0.80
Knights -9.73 -14.06 4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Mar 26 16 – 33 -3.00 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Mar 27 14 – 32 13.30 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Dolphins Mar 27 26 – 12 6.70 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights Mar 28 16 – 24 17.50 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Eels Mar 28 48 – 20 15.20 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Storm Mar 28 28 – 24 -10.50 FALSE
7 Raiders vs. Sharks Mar 29 22 – 34 -1.90 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Dragons Mar 29 22 – 14 1.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dolphins vs. Sea Eagles Apr 02 Dolphins 8.90
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Apr 03 Rabbitohs 0.60
3 Panthers vs. Storm Apr 03 Panthers 10.70
4 Dragons vs. Cowboys Apr 04 Dragons 0.40
5 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 04 Broncos -10.40
6 Sharks vs. Warriors Apr 05 Sharks 7.90
7 Knights vs. Raiders Apr 05 Raiders -4.20
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 06 Eels 4.90

 

AFL Predictions for Week 5

By

Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 31.57 26.06 5.50
Brisbane Lions 22.36 26.20 -3.80
Hawthorn Hawks 21.12 22.83 -1.70
Geelong Cats 20.28 26.75 -6.50
Adelaide Crows 17.34 15.32 2.00
Gold Coast Suns 16.95 10.24 6.70
Fremantle Dockers 10.94 6.56 4.40
Collingwood 10.89 11.76 -0.90
Sydney Swans 8.70 0.56 8.10
GWS Giants 4.07 9.54 -5.50
Melbourne Demons 0.91 1.64 -0.70
St Kilda Saints -6.47 -7.63 1.20
Carlton Blues -10.81 -4.77 -6.00
Port Adelaide Power -17.39 -14.65 -2.70
North Melbourne -20.54 -21.71 1.20
Richmond Tigers -31.57 -29.44 -2.10
Essendon Bombers -32.19 -27.89 -4.30
West Coast Eagles -34.16 -39.36 5.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 26 68 – 60 15.20 TRUE
2 Collingwood vs. GWS Giants Mar 27 87 – 54 15.00 TRUE
3 St Kilda Saints vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 28 80 – 113 -15.00 TRUE
4 Fremantle Dockers vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 28 103 – 43 52.10 TRUE
5 Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne Mar 28 69 – 81 -11.60 TRUE
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 29 90 – 92 33.10 FALSE
7 Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 29 77 – 100 -9.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood Apr 02 Brisbane Lions 22.50
2 North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues Apr 03 Carlton Blues -9.70
3 Adelaide Crows vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 03 Adelaide Crows 17.40
4 Richmond Tigers vs. Port Adelaide Power Apr 04 Port Adelaide Power -3.20
5 West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans Apr 04 Sydney Swans -31.90
6 Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 05 Gold Coast Suns -5.00
7 Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 05 Western Bulldogs 63.80
8 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Geelong Cats Apr 06 Hawthorn Hawks 11.80

 

March 24, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 14

By

Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 8.50 8.86 -0.40
Glasgow 8.49 6.18 2.30
Leinster 8.30 13.41 -5.10
Stormers 5.81 4.17 1.60
Lions 2.14 -1.19 3.30
Ulster 1.28 -3.24 4.50
Sharks 0.72 1.29 -0.60
Munster 0.12 3.65 -3.50
Connacht 0.09 -1.39 1.50
Edinburgh -1.52 2.67 -4.20
Scarlets -2.15 -0.54 -1.60
Cardiff Rugby -2.90 -2.74 -0.20
Ospreys -2.96 -2.15 -0.80
Benetton -4.44 -2.32 -2.10
Dragons -9.14 -15.66 6.50
Zebre -12.34 -11.02 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 104 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 21 40 – 7 16.60 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Zebre Mar 21 36 – 17 16.70 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Connacht Mar 21 19 – 26 4.60 FALSE
4 Lions vs. Edinburgh Mar 22 54 – 17 7.90 TRUE
5 Benetton vs. Ospreys Mar 22 31 – 19 4.50 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Munster Mar 22 45 – 0 4.00 TRUE
7 Glasgow vs. Leinster Mar 22 38 – 17 5.50 TRUE
8 Stormers vs. Dragons Mar 23 29 – 21 23.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 28 Sharks 10.60
2 Glasgow vs. Benetton Mar 28 Glasgow 19.90
3 Leinster vs. Scarlets Mar 28 Leinster 17.40
4 Bulls vs. Munster Mar 29 Bulls 15.40
5 Connacht vs. Ospreys Mar 29 Connacht 10.00
6 Lions vs. Dragons Mar 29 Lions 18.30
7 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Mar 29 Stormers 14.30
8 Zebre vs. Ulster Mar 29 Ulster -6.60

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 20

By

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 13.94 11.56 2.40
Bordeaux Begles 5.93 4.78 1.10
Montpellier 5.17 -0.21 5.40
Clermont 3.56 1.88 1.70
Section Paloise 3.07 2.21 0.90
Stade Rochelais 3.06 1.22 1.80
Stade Francais 2.82 -2.17 5.00
Racing 92 1.17 1.88 -0.70
Lyon 0.93 -0.45 1.40
Toulon -0.14 3.49 -3.60
Castres Olympique -1.20 0.59 -1.80
Bayonne -1.61 1.48 -3.10
USA Perpignan -5.41 -3.37 -2.00
Montauban -18.39 -10.00 -8.40

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Montpellier Mar 22 17 – 20 6.00 FALSE
2 Montauban vs. Bayonne Mar 22 26 – 60 -8.70 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Mar 22 52 – 21 7.40 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise Mar 22 20 – 6 5.50 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Mar 22 27 – 46 5.10 FALSE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Mar 22 28 – 32 0.70 FALSE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 23 44 – 20 -3.20 FALSE

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 29 Bayonne 1.80
2 Castres Olympique vs. Montauban Mar 29 Castres Olympique 23.70
3 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 29 Lyon 1.50
4 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Mar 29 Section Paloise 8.40
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Mar 29 Stade Toulousain 15.30
6 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Mar 29 USA Perpignan 1.20
7 Stade Francais vs. Clermont Mar 30 Stade Francais 5.80
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