Posts filed under Sports statistics (1743)

March 31, 2026

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 12.73 10.30 2.40
Leicester Tigers 8.25 5.55 2.70
Northampton Saints 5.59 -1.47 7.10
Saracens 4.85 5.03 -0.20
Exeter Chiefs 4.74 -4.58 9.30
Bristol 2.50 3.66 -1.20
Sale Sharks 2.36 6.70 -4.30
Gloucester -4.56 4.13 -8.70
Harlequins -8.80 -3.02 -5.80
Newcastle Red Bulls -19.80 -18.45 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 29 17 – 36 -3.40 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 29 14 – 18 22.10 FALSE
3 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 29 14 – 38 -16.30 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Mar 29 26 – 31 -3.00 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Mar 29 17 – 21 8.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Gloucester Apr 18 Bristol 14.10
2 Bath vs. Harlequins Apr 19 Bath 28.50
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Apr 19 Exeter Chiefs 6.20
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Apr 19 Leicester Tigers 35.10
5 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Apr 20 Sale Sharks 4.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.91 8.77 6.10
Storm 8.25 6.96 1.30
Sharks 5.91 7.25 -1.30
Broncos 5.65 7.06 -1.40
Roosters 5.49 9.50 -4.00
Warriors 2.05 -1.18 3.20
Dolphins 1.35 1.85 -0.50
Bulldogs 0.28 2.13 -1.80
Raiders -1.56 1.62 -3.20
Eels -2.24 -0.37 -1.90
Wests Tigers -3.10 -7.26 4.20
Rabbitohs -3.11 -5.05 1.90
Sea Eagles -3.56 0.21 -3.80
Cowboys -4.12 -2.69 -1.40
Dragons -7.70 -6.72 -1.00
Titans -8.78 -8.02 -0.80
Knights -9.73 -14.06 4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Mar 26 16 – 33 -3.00 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Mar 27 14 – 32 13.30 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Dolphins Mar 27 26 – 12 6.70 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights Mar 28 16 – 24 17.50 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Eels Mar 28 48 – 20 15.20 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Storm Mar 28 28 – 24 -10.50 FALSE
7 Raiders vs. Sharks Mar 29 22 – 34 -1.90 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Dragons Mar 29 22 – 14 1.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dolphins vs. Sea Eagles Apr 02 Dolphins 8.90
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Apr 03 Rabbitohs 0.60
3 Panthers vs. Storm Apr 03 Panthers 10.70
4 Dragons vs. Cowboys Apr 04 Dragons 0.40
5 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 04 Broncos -10.40
6 Sharks vs. Warriors Apr 05 Sharks 7.90
7 Knights vs. Raiders Apr 05 Raiders -4.20
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 06 Eels 4.90

 

AFL Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 31.57 26.06 5.50
Brisbane Lions 22.36 26.20 -3.80
Hawthorn Hawks 21.12 22.83 -1.70
Geelong Cats 20.28 26.75 -6.50
Adelaide Crows 17.34 15.32 2.00
Gold Coast Suns 16.95 10.24 6.70
Fremantle Dockers 10.94 6.56 4.40
Collingwood 10.89 11.76 -0.90
Sydney Swans 8.70 0.56 8.10
GWS Giants 4.07 9.54 -5.50
Melbourne Demons 0.91 1.64 -0.70
St Kilda Saints -6.47 -7.63 1.20
Carlton Blues -10.81 -4.77 -6.00
Port Adelaide Power -17.39 -14.65 -2.70
North Melbourne -20.54 -21.71 1.20
Richmond Tigers -31.57 -29.44 -2.10
Essendon Bombers -32.19 -27.89 -4.30
West Coast Eagles -34.16 -39.36 5.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 26 68 – 60 15.20 TRUE
2 Collingwood vs. GWS Giants Mar 27 87 – 54 15.00 TRUE
3 St Kilda Saints vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 28 80 – 113 -15.00 TRUE
4 Fremantle Dockers vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 28 103 – 43 52.10 TRUE
5 Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne Mar 28 69 – 81 -11.60 TRUE
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 29 90 – 92 33.10 FALSE
7 Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 29 77 – 100 -9.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood Apr 02 Brisbane Lions 22.50
2 North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues Apr 03 Carlton Blues -9.70
3 Adelaide Crows vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 03 Adelaide Crows 17.40
4 Richmond Tigers vs. Port Adelaide Power Apr 04 Port Adelaide Power -3.20
5 West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans Apr 04 Sydney Swans -31.90
6 Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 05 Gold Coast Suns -5.00
7 Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 05 Western Bulldogs 63.80
8 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Geelong Cats Apr 06 Hawthorn Hawks 11.80

 

March 24, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 14

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Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 8.50 8.86 -0.40
Glasgow 8.49 6.18 2.30
Leinster 8.30 13.41 -5.10
Stormers 5.81 4.17 1.60
Lions 2.14 -1.19 3.30
Ulster 1.28 -3.24 4.50
Sharks 0.72 1.29 -0.60
Munster 0.12 3.65 -3.50
Connacht 0.09 -1.39 1.50
Edinburgh -1.52 2.67 -4.20
Scarlets -2.15 -0.54 -1.60
Cardiff Rugby -2.90 -2.74 -0.20
Ospreys -2.96 -2.15 -0.80
Benetton -4.44 -2.32 -2.10
Dragons -9.14 -15.66 6.50
Zebre -12.34 -11.02 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 104 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 21 40 – 7 16.60 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Zebre Mar 21 36 – 17 16.70 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Connacht Mar 21 19 – 26 4.60 FALSE
4 Lions vs. Edinburgh Mar 22 54 – 17 7.90 TRUE
5 Benetton vs. Ospreys Mar 22 31 – 19 4.50 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Munster Mar 22 45 – 0 4.00 TRUE
7 Glasgow vs. Leinster Mar 22 38 – 17 5.50 TRUE
8 Stormers vs. Dragons Mar 23 29 – 21 23.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 28 Sharks 10.60
2 Glasgow vs. Benetton Mar 28 Glasgow 19.90
3 Leinster vs. Scarlets Mar 28 Leinster 17.40
4 Bulls vs. Munster Mar 29 Bulls 15.40
5 Connacht vs. Ospreys Mar 29 Connacht 10.00
6 Lions vs. Dragons Mar 29 Lions 18.30
7 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Mar 29 Stormers 14.30
8 Zebre vs. Ulster Mar 29 Ulster -6.60

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 13.94 11.56 2.40
Bordeaux Begles 5.93 4.78 1.10
Montpellier 5.17 -0.21 5.40
Clermont 3.56 1.88 1.70
Section Paloise 3.07 2.21 0.90
Stade Rochelais 3.06 1.22 1.80
Stade Francais 2.82 -2.17 5.00
Racing 92 1.17 1.88 -0.70
Lyon 0.93 -0.45 1.40
Toulon -0.14 3.49 -3.60
Castres Olympique -1.20 0.59 -1.80
Bayonne -1.61 1.48 -3.10
USA Perpignan -5.41 -3.37 -2.00
Montauban -18.39 -10.00 -8.40

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Montpellier Mar 22 17 – 20 6.00 FALSE
2 Montauban vs. Bayonne Mar 22 26 – 60 -8.70 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Mar 22 52 – 21 7.40 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise Mar 22 20 – 6 5.50 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Mar 22 27 – 46 5.10 FALSE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Mar 22 28 – 32 0.70 FALSE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 23 44 – 20 -3.20 FALSE

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 29 Bayonne 1.80
2 Castres Olympique vs. Montauban Mar 29 Castres Olympique 23.70
3 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 29 Lyon 1.50
4 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Mar 29 Section Paloise 8.40
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Mar 29 Stade Toulousain 15.30
6 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Mar 29 USA Perpignan 1.20
7 Stade Francais vs. Clermont Mar 30 Stade Francais 5.80

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 11.38 12.36 -1.00
Hurricanes 10.20 8.29 1.90
Blues 9.65 8.91 0.70
Crusaders 7.74 8.41 -0.70
Brumbies 6.60 5.59 1.00
Reds 2.12 1.74 0.40
Highlanders -3.75 -3.06 -0.70
Waratahs -5.40 -5.84 0.40
Western Force -5.90 -6.29 0.40
Fijian Drua -7.74 -7.64 -0.10
Moana Pasifika -10.31 -7.88 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 20 7 – 50 -6.50 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Chiefs Mar 20 33 – 24 -2.30 FALSE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Reds Mar 21 6 – 21 -3.90 TRUE
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Crusaders Mar 21 21 – 50 -11.70 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Blues Mar 21 20 – 35 -11.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders Mar 27 Highlanders -1.60
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 27 Brumbies 17.00
3 Hurricanes vs. Reds Mar 28 Hurricanes 11.60
4 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Mar 28 Blues 20.90
5 Western Force vs. Chiefs Mar 28 Chiefs -13.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 12.53 10.30 2.20
Leicester Tigers 7.07 5.55 1.50
Saracens 5.79 5.03 0.80
Northampton Saints 4.64 -1.47 6.10
Bristol 4.38 3.66 0.70
Exeter Chiefs 4.11 -4.58 8.70
Sale Sharks 2.56 6.70 -4.10
Gloucester -3.38 4.13 -7.50
Harlequins -10.68 -3.02 -7.70
Newcastle Red Bulls -19.17 -18.45 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Saracens Mar 21 62 – 15 8.40 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Mar 22 26 – 14 7.70 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Mar 22 19 – 26 1.00 FALSE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Mar 22 28 – 27 35.70 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Mar 23 33 – 19 8.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 29 Leicester Tigers -3.40
2 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 29 Bristol 22.10
3 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 29 Exeter Chiefs -16.30
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Mar 29 Bath -3.00
5 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Mar 29 Saracens 8.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.96 8.77 5.20
Storm 9.32 6.96 2.40
Sharks 5.12 7.25 -2.10
Broncos 4.85 7.06 -2.20
Roosters 4.45 9.50 -5.10
Warriors 4.10 -1.18 5.30
Dolphins 2.16 1.85 0.30
Bulldogs 2.00 2.13 -0.10
Raiders -0.77 1.62 -2.40
Eels -1.28 -0.37 -0.90
Sea Eagles -2.52 0.21 -2.70
Rabbitohs -3.11 -5.05 1.90
Wests Tigers -5.15 -7.26 2.10
Cowboys -5.19 -2.69 -2.50
Dragons -6.98 -6.72 -0.30
Titans -9.50 -8.02 -1.50
Knights -11.45 -14.06 2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Mar 19 10 – 14 2.70 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Panthers Mar 20 4 – 40 -1.00 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Broncos Mar 20 14 – 18 10.60 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Warriors Mar 21 12 – 38 -9.10 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Dolphins Mar 21 10 – 38 12.00 FALSE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Mar 21 20 – 16 6.60 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Dragons Mar 22 30 – 20 9.60 TRUE
8 Cowboys vs. Titans Mar 22 30 – 16 6.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Mar 26 Roosters -3.00
2 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Mar 27 Warriors 13.30
3 Broncos vs. Dolphins Mar 27 Broncos 6.70
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights Mar 28 Bulldogs 17.50
5 Panthers vs. Eels Mar 28 Panthers 15.20
6 Cowboys vs. Storm Mar 28 Storm -10.50
7 Raiders vs. Sharks Mar 29 Sharks -1.90
8 Titans vs. Dragons Mar 29 Titans 1.50

 

AFL Predictions for Week 4

By

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 31.57 26.06 5.50
Hawthorn Hawks 21.12 22.83 -1.70
Brisbane Lions 20.96 26.20 -5.20
Geelong Cats 20.94 26.75 -5.80
Gold Coast Suns 16.95 10.24 6.70
Adelaide Crows 16.69 15.32 1.40
Fremantle Dockers 10.22 6.56 3.70
Collingwood 9.49 11.76 -2.30
Sydney Swans 8.70 0.56 8.10
GWS Giants 5.47 9.54 -4.10
Melbourne Demons -0.33 1.64 -2.00
St Kilda Saints -5.07 -7.63 2.60
Carlton Blues -9.58 -4.77 -4.80
Port Adelaide Power -14.75 -14.65 -0.10
North Melbourne -20.58 -21.71 1.10
Richmond Tigers -30.85 -29.44 -1.40
Essendon Bombers -32.15 -27.89 -4.30
West Coast Eagles -36.80 -39.36 2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Sydney Swans Mar 19 99 – 82 24.80 TRUE
2 Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 20 88 – 94 -3.40 TRUE
3 Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 21 60 – 128 -31.30 TRUE
4 GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 21 74 – 78 26.10 FALSE
5 Fremantle Dockers vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 21 118 – 70 16.80 TRUE
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 22 133 – 70 22.30 TRUE
7 West Coast Eagles vs. North Melbourne Mar 22 111 – 94 -9.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 26 Geelong Cats 15.20
2 Collingwood vs. GWS Giants Mar 27 Collingwood 15.00
3 St Kilda Saints vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 28 Brisbane Lions -15.00
4 Fremantle Dockers vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 28 Fremantle Dockers 52.10
5 Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne Mar 28 North Melbourne -11.60
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 29 Port Adelaide Power 33.10
7 Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 29 Melbourne Demons -9.20

 

March 17, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 13

By

Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 9.16 13.41 -4.20
Glasgow 7.63 6.18 1.40
Bulls 7.61 8.86 -1.30
Stormers 6.68 4.17 2.50
Ulster 1.97 -3.24 5.20
Munster 1.90 3.65 -1.80
Lions 0.76 -1.19 2.00
Edinburgh -0.14 2.67 -2.80
Connacht -0.60 -1.39 0.80
Sharks -1.06 1.29 -2.30
Cardiff Rugby -2.00 -2.74 0.70
Scarlets -2.41 -0.54 -1.90
Ospreys -2.46 -2.15 -0.30
Benetton -4.94 -2.32 -2.60
Dragons -10.01 -15.66 5.60
Zebre -12.09 -11.02 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Mar 14 19 – 40 7.60 FALSE
2 Connacht vs. Scarlets Mar 14 31 – 14 7.60 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 15 19 – 32 4.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 21 Bulls 16.60
2 Scarlets vs. Zebre Mar 21 Scarlets 16.70
3 Ulster vs. Connacht Mar 21 Ulster 4.60
4 Lions vs. Edinburgh Mar 22 Lions 7.90
5 Benetton vs. Ospreys Mar 22 Benetton 4.50
6 Sharks vs. Munster Mar 22 Sharks 4.00
7 Glasgow vs. Leinster Mar 22 Glasgow 5.50
8 Stormers vs. Dragons Mar 23 Stormers 23.70

 

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