Posts filed under Sports statistics (1809)

June 8, 2021

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 17

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Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.46 14.49 -0.00
Blues 9.87 7.80 2.10
Hurricanes 7.46 7.13 0.30
Highlanders 4.61 2.70 1.90
Chiefs 4.53 4.38 0.20
Brumbies 2.83 1.47 1.40
Reds 1.09 1.59 -0.50
Rebels -6.06 -3.51 -2.50
Waratahs -10.18 -5.02 -5.20
Western Force -10.64 -13.05 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Western Force Jun 04 29 – 21 33.20 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Blues Jun 04 24 – 31 -1.60 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Waratahs Jun 05 59 – 23 20.20 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 12 – 10 1.80 TRUE
5 Chiefs vs. Rebels Jun 06 36 – 26 10.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Reds Jun 11 Hurricanes 12.90
2 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jun 11 Brumbies 4.70
3 Rebels vs. Crusaders Jun 12 Crusaders -20.50
4 Blues vs. Western Force Jun 12 Blues 27.00
5 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Jun 12 Chiefs -8.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.11 7.35 2.80
Bristol 5.49 1.28 4.20
Sale Sharks 5.44 4.96 0.50
Harlequins 1.95 -1.08 3.00
Northampton Saints -0.48 -2.48 2.00
Wasps -1.21 5.66 -6.90
Gloucester -2.57 -1.02 -1.50
Bath -3.08 2.14 -5.20
Leicester Tigers -3.44 -6.14 2.70
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90
Newcastle Falcons -8.32 -10.00 1.70
Worcester Warriors -9.80 -5.71 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 118 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Jun 05 45 – 12 5.30 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Jun 06 23 – 26 -4.70 TRUE
3 London Irish vs. Wasps Jun 06 36 – 39 -1.20 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Worcester Warriors Jun 06 24 – 14 5.40 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 07 26 – 29 -6.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Jun 13 Bath 1.90
2 Bristol vs. London Irish Jun 13 Bristol 17.20
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 13 Exeter Chiefs 9.20
4 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Jun 13 Harlequins 14.80
5 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 13 Wasps 6.70
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Jun 13 Gloucester -2.70

 

Pro 14 Rainbow Cup Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.49 15.74 -1.30
Munster 9.78 9.13 0.70
Ulster 7.41 8.77 -1.40
Bulls 4.08 1.70 2.40
Glasgow Warriors 3.69 2.64 1.00
Edinburgh 2.58 3.48 -0.90
Connacht 1.72 2.50 -0.80
Ospreys 0.94 -0.65 1.60
Sharks 0.48 1.16 -0.70
Stormers 0.00 0.80 -0.80
Cardiff Blues -0.11 0.73 -0.80
Scarlets -0.46 0.41 -0.90
Lions -3.91 -3.00 -0.90
Treviso -5.48 -6.46 1.00
Dragons -6.62 -6.39 -0.20
Zebre -12.56 -14.52 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 48.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Stormers Jun 05 37 – 12 7.80 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Ospreys Jun 05 21 – 33 8.80 FALSE
3 Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster Jun 05 31 – 34 -4.60 TRUE
4 Cardiff Blues vs. Zebre Jun 06 31 – 34 20.60 FALSE
5 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Jun 06 37 – 12 -0.00 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Sharks Jun 06 21 – 33 1.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Munster Jun 12 Munster -15.80
2 Leinster vs. Dragons Jun 12 Leinster 27.60
3 Stormers vs. Lions Jun 13 Stormers 8.90
4 Sharks vs. Bulls Jun 13 Sharks 1.40
5 Ospreys vs. Treviso Jun 13 Ospreys 12.90
6 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Jun 13 Scarlets 3.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 18.52 14.53 4.00
Panthers 14.91 8.88 6.00
Roosters 9.35 10.25 -0.90
Eels 7.62 1.68 5.90
Rabbitohs 4.98 7.73 -2.80
Sea Eagles 2.27 -4.77 7.00
Wests Tigers -1.27 -3.07 1.80
Sharks -2.48 -0.76 -1.70
Dragons -2.49 -4.95 2.50
Warriors -2.70 -1.84 -0.90
Raiders -3.31 6.98 -10.30
Titans -6.96 -7.22 0.30
Cowboys -7.97 -8.05 0.10
Knights -8.85 -2.61 -6.20
Broncos -11.44 -11.16 -0.30
Bulldogs -12.18 -7.62 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Broncos Jun 03 52 – 24 8.60 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 04 26 – 6 -19.80 FALSE
3 Storm vs. Titans Jun 05 20 – 14 33.10 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Eels Jun 06 4 – 40 -8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jun 11 Sea Eagles 13.20
2 Sharks vs. Panthers Jun 11 Panthers -14.40
3 Titans vs. Roosters Jun 12 Roosters -13.30
4 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jun 12 Rabbitohs 16.80
5 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 12 Raiders 11.10
6 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 13 Storm -21.20
7 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Jun 13 Eels 11.90
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 14 Dragons -6.70

 

June 1, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.41 2.32 5.10
Stade Toulousain 6.49 4.80 1.70
Racing-Metro 92 6.18 6.21 -0.00
Clermont Auvergne 5.44 3.22 2.20
Bordeaux-Begles 5.18 2.83 2.40
Lyon Rugby 3.97 5.61 -1.60
RC Toulonnais 2.54 3.56 -1.00
Stade Francais Paris 1.50 -3.22 4.70
Montpellier 1.04 2.30 -1.30
Castres Olympique 0.67 -0.47 1.10
Brive -2.41 -3.26 0.90
Section Paloise -3.08 -4.48 1.40
Aviron Bayonnais -5.73 -4.13 -1.60
SU Agen -18.62 -4.72 -13.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 175 matches played, 121 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Francais Paris vs. Lyon Rugby May 29 46 – 27 1.80 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Castres Olympique May 30 28 – 33 3.10 FALSE
3 La Rochelle vs. Section Paloise May 30 51 – 27 15.30 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Aviron Bayonnais May 30 23 – 19 13.00 TRUE
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles May 30 25 – 19 2.30 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Auvergne May 30 36 – 27 6.20 TRUE
7 SU Agen vs. Racing-Metro 92 May 30 14 – 54 -17.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Francais Paris Jun 06 Stade Francais Paris -1.70
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 06 Bordeaux-Begles 4.20
3 Castres Olympique vs. RC Toulonnais Jun 06 Castres Olympique 3.60
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. La Rochelle Jun 06 Clermont Auvergne 3.50
5 Lyon Rugby vs. SU Agen Jun 06 Lyon Rugby 28.10
6 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Brive Jun 06 Racing-Metro 92 14.10
7 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Jun 06 Section Paloise 1.40

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 16

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Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.26 14.49 0.80
Blues 9.55 7.80 1.80
Hurricanes 7.47 7.13 0.30
Chiefs 4.57 4.38 0.20
Highlanders 4.06 2.70 1.40
Brumbies 2.82 1.47 1.30
Reds 1.41 1.59 -0.20
Rebels -6.10 -3.51 -2.60
Waratahs -9.63 -5.02 -4.60
Western Force -11.43 -13.05 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 58 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Western Force May 28 43 – 6 24.50 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Crusaders May 29 28 – 54 -17.70 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Brumbies May 29 38 – 10 12.10 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Chiefs May 29 40 – 34 3.00 TRUE
5 Highlanders vs. Rebels May 30 42 – 27 9.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Western Force Jun 04 Crusaders 33.20
2 Reds vs. Blues Jun 04 Blues -1.60
3 Chiefs vs. Rebels Jun 05 Chiefs 17.20
4 Highlanders vs. Waratahs Jun 05 Highlanders 20.20
5 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 Brumbies 1.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.41 7.35 3.10
Bristol 5.63 1.28 4.30
Sale Sharks 4.09 4.96 -0.90
Harlequins 3.29 -1.08 4.40
Northampton Saints -0.78 -2.48 1.70
Wasps -1.36 5.66 -7.00
Gloucester -2.57 -1.02 -1.50
Bath -3.08 2.14 -5.20
Leicester Tigers -3.58 -6.14 2.60
London Irish -7.02 -8.05 1.00
Newcastle Falcons -8.61 -10.00 1.40
Worcester Warriors -9.51 -5.71 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. London Irish May 29 30 – 28 9.90 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol May 29 22 – 12 2.00 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Bath May 30 44 – 33 10.80 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Wasps May 30 30 – 25 5.10 TRUE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers May 30 17 – 18 -1.50 TRUE
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons May 31 74 – 3 18.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Jun 05 Sale Sharks 5.30
2 Gloucester vs. Bath Jun 06 Gloucester 5.00
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Jun 06 Bristol -4.70
4 London Irish vs. Wasps Jun 06 Wasps -1.20
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Worcester Warriors Jun 06 Newcastle Falcons 5.40
6 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 07 Exeter Chiefs -6.70

 

Pro 14 Rainbow Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.63 15.74 -1.10
Munster 9.78 9.13 0.70
Ulster 8.27 8.77 -0.50
Glasgow Warriors 3.55 2.64 0.90
Bulls 3.42 1.70 1.70
Connacht 2.47 2.50 -0.00
Edinburgh 1.73 3.48 -1.80
Cardiff Blues 0.72 0.73 -0.00
Stormers 0.66 0.80 -0.10
Ospreys 0.18 -0.65 0.80
Sharks -0.08 1.16 -1.20
Scarlets -0.46 0.41 -0.90
Lions -3.35 -3.00 -0.30
Treviso -5.48 -6.46 1.00
Dragons -6.62 -6.39 -0.20
Zebre -13.38 -14.52 1.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 29 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Stormers May 22 22 – 25 5.80 FALSE
2 Lions vs. Bulls May 22 34 – 33 -2.40 FALSE
3 Munster vs. Cardiff Blues May 29 31 – 27 16.60 TRUE
4 Treviso vs. Connacht May 30 20 – 12 -2.40 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors May 30 16 – 27 -2.10 TRUE

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Stormers Jun 05 Bulls 7.80
2 Connacht vs. Ospreys Jun 05 Connacht 8.80
3 Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster Jun 05 Leinster -4.60
4 Cardiff Blues vs. Zebre Jun 06 Cardiff Blues 20.60
5 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Jun 06 Ulster -0.00
6 Lions vs. Sharks Jun 06 Lions 1.70
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NRL Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 20.82 14.53 6.30
Panthers 18.22 8.88 9.30
Roosters 9.35 10.25 -0.90
Eels 5.32 1.68 3.60
Rabbitohs 4.98 7.73 -2.80
Sea Eagles 2.27 -4.77 7.00
Sharks -2.48 -0.76 -1.70
Warriors -2.70 -1.84 -0.90
Raiders -3.31 6.98 -10.30
Dragons -4.16 -4.95 0.80
Wests Tigers -4.58 -3.07 -1.50
Knights -6.55 -2.61 -3.90
Cowboys -7.97 -8.05 0.10
Titans -9.26 -7.22 -2.00
Broncos -9.77 -11.16 1.40
Bulldogs -12.18 -7.62 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm May 27 12 – 40 -27.50 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Warriors May 28 29 – 28 -3.00 FALSE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons May 28 34 – 18 -0.20 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Bulldogs May 29 30 – 4 35.00 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 29 38 – 20 -0.50 FALSE
6 Roosters vs. Raiders May 29 44 – 16 13.10 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Titans May 30 38 – 10 6.00 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Sea Eagles May 30 18 – 10 -8.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Broncos Jun 03 Dragons 8.60
2 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 04 Panthers -19.80
3 Storm vs. Titans Jun 05 Storm 33.10
4 Knights vs. Eels Jun 06 Eels -8.90

 

May 26, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.05 2.32 4.70
Stade Toulousain 6.29 4.80 1.50
Clermont Auvergne 5.64 3.22 2.40
Racing-Metro 92 5.46 6.21 -0.80
Bordeaux-Begles 5.44 2.83 2.60
Lyon Rugby 4.56 5.61 -1.10
RC Toulonnais 2.28 3.56 -1.30
Montpellier 1.40 2.30 -0.90
Stade Francais Paris 0.91 -3.22 4.10
Castres Olympique 0.34 -0.47 0.80
Brive -2.08 -3.26 1.20
Section Paloise -2.72 -4.48 1.80
Aviron Bayonnais -6.09 -4.13 -2.00
SU Agen -17.91 -4.72 -13.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 SU Agen vs. Bordeaux-Begles May 22 3 – 49 -14.90 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Montpellier May 26 57 – 9 7.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Francais Paris vs. Lyon Rugby May 29 Stade Francais Paris 1.80
2 Brive vs. Castres Olympique May 30 Brive 3.10
3 La Rochelle vs. Section Paloise May 30 La Rochelle 15.30
4 Montpellier vs. Aviron Bayonnais May 30 Montpellier 13.00
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles May 30 RC Toulonnais 2.30
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Auvergne May 30 Stade Toulousain 6.20
7 SU Agen vs. Racing-Metro 92 May 30 Racing-Metro 92 -17.90

 

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